Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Consumer Cyclical

GRWG Stage Analysis

GrowGeneration Corp

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.50Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 19−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 21/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -13.4%USD 1.73 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.50	1.47	-10.51	791033	Balance	19	12
2026-10-02	1.57	1.45	-6.77	1956266	Balance	29	16
2026-09-25	1.56	1.44	-7.43	1048137	Balance	32	15
2026-09-18	1.57	1.43	-4.31	1348712	Upward Expansion	36	20
2026-09-11	1.53	1.41	-6.32	909312	Upward Expansion	52	35
2026-09-04	1.64	1.40	-0.52	1049847	Upward Expansion	57	62
2026-08-28	1.62	1.38	-1.96	1228274	Upward Expansion	55	60
2026-08-21	1.72	1.37	3.90	2368649	Upward Expansion	65	60
2026-08-14	1.77	1.36	3.64	6060346	Deceleration	59	35
2026-08-07	1.51	1.35	-10.68	1355537	Deceleration	22	14
2026-07-31	1.44	1.36	-10.29	1458242	Deceleration	14	12
2026-07-24	1.38	1.36	-13.33	799854	Deceleration	21	17
2026-07-17	1.43	1.37	-11.57	1070747	Deceleration	27	21
2026-07-10	1.50	1.38	-10.90	1053975	Deceleration	31	20
2026-07-03	1.47	1.39	-10.97	900835	Deceleration	6	12
2026-06-26	1.38	1.39	-15.53	2301626	Rotation Up	11	13
2026-06-19	1.59	1.40	-6.78	1513553	Rotation Up	32	37
2026-06-12	1.53	1.40	-7.87	1659616	Rotation Up	37	53
2026-06-05	1.61	1.40	-0.86	1625474	Rotation Up	40	71
2026-05-29	1.78	1.41	4.72	1380876	Rotation Up	46	76
2026-05-22	1.79	1.40	8.64	2904319	Rotation Up	52	72
2026-05-15	1.61	1.40	-0.81	3591020	Downward Expansion	44	46
2026-05-08	1.42	1.40	-12.74	1981147	Downward Expansion	10	24
2026-05-01	1.30	1.41	-15.82	1848226	Downward Expansion	-27	20
2026-04-24	1.37	1.42	-10.39	9369918	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2026-04-17	1.12	1.43	-25.20	1397859	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-04-10	1.04	1.45	-26.45	924565	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2026-04-03	1.10	1.47	-18.91	925447	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2026-03-27	1.07	1.48	-18.25	2028465	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2026-03-20	1.16	1.50	-14.57	3825017	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2026-03-13	1.06	1.53	-23.88	781855	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2026-03-06	1.12	1.54	-20.65	1592824	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2026-02-27	1.13	1.54	-21.24	1204852	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2026-02-20	1.10	1.53	-23.76	1576187	Rotation Down	-75	81
2026-02-13	1.12	1.53	-21.97	1594748	Rotation Down	-52	68
2026-02-06	1.22	1.53	-16.62	2244617	Rotation Down	-47	60
2026-01-30	1.31	1.52	-12.78	1475172	Deceleration	-40	45
2026-01-23	1.45	1.51	-4.04	1256912	Deceleration	-18	19
2026-01-16	1.49	1.49	-1.52	1623430	Deceleration	5	11
2026-01-09	1.57	1.48	2.48	1670244	Deceleration	14	7
2026-01-02	1.54	1.46	2.21	2752371	Deceleration	28	20
2025-12-26	1.61	1.45	4.18	2542463	Deceleration	45	27
2025-12-19	1.78	1.43	16.26	11819153	Deceleration	50	29
2025-12-12	1.96	1.41	28.40	5820650	Deceleration	65	29
2025-12-05	1.47	1.38	-5.59	953330	Deceleration	12	12
2025-11-28	1.55	1.37	-0.39	730324	Deceleration	34	18
2025-11-21	1.52	1.36	1.49	1745534	Deceleration	36	19
2025-11-14	1.65	1.34	5.87	3358435	Deceleration	40	26
2025-11-07	1.77	1.32	12.82	3514098	Deceleration	59	33
2025-10-31	1.52	1.29	-6.62	1547304	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-10-24	1.77	1.27	9.31	2286305	Upward Expansion	63	44
2025-10-17	1.64	1.25	2.46	2137581	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-10-10	1.65	1.24	4.48	3061494	Upward Expansion	59	46
2025-10-03	1.79	1.22	9.68	5919333	Upward Expansion	72	55
2025-09-26	1.65	1.19	1.39	3271702	Upward Expansion	63	53
2025-09-19	1.62	1.18	-1.97	2918842	Upward Expansion	64	74
2025-09-12	1.72	1.17	5.20	1953207	Upward Expansion	74	86
2025-09-05	1.51	1.16	-6.85	2167069	Upward Expansion	63	81
2025-08-29	1.70	1.16	4.80	3436452	Rotation Up	81	87
2025-08-22	1.77	1.15	7.99	3576380	Rotation Up	58	71
2025-08-15	1.45	1.14	-13.36	10504019	Rotation Up	35	27
2025-08-08	1.05	1.14	-37.90	1739340	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2025-08-01	0.9784	1.16	-40.83	1834143	Downward Expansion	-54	26
2025-07-25	1.10	1.18	-36.12	2408262	Downward Expansion	-44	23
2025-07-18	1.00	1.20	-42.60	1860170	Downward Expansion	-52	43
2025-07-11	1.04	1.22	-40.74	2050135	Downward Expansion	-50	41
2025-07-04	1.01	1.24	-43.64	1418551	Balance	-51	35
2025-06-27	0.87	1.27	-51.44	12758885	Balance	-56	31
2025-06-20	1.11	1.31	-36.57	1611586	Balance	-20	11
2025-06-13	1.14	1.33	-35.81	2483827	Downward Expansion	-22	13
2025-06-06	1.18	1.35	-35.01	1540072	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2025-05-30	1.08	1.37	-40.38	1551380	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-05-23	1.09	1.41	-39.85	1267628	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2025-05-16	1.14	1.44	-39.68	2195893	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2025-05-09	1.04	1.47	-42.30	2764480	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2025-05-02	1.25	1.51	-32.36	4006683	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-04-25	1.02	1.53	-43.94	2289780	Downward Expansion	-64	68
2025-04-18	0.9083	1.57	-47.67	2099840	Downward Expansion	-74	81
2025-04-11	0.887	1.61	-50.80	2650847	Downward Expansion	-81	68
2025-04-04	0.9601	1.65	-43.71	2390105	Downward Expansion	-80	66
2025-03-28	1.11	1.68	-42.49	2647524	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2025-03-21	1.27	1.70	-36.95	4578059	Downward Expansion	-66	72
2025-03-14	1.05	1.74	-48.31	5152653	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2025-03-07	1.14	1.78	-45.86	3276125	Downward Expansion	-78	81
2025-02-28	1.14	1.80	-48.23	3161031	Downward Expansion	-83	76
2025-02-21	1.34	1.83	-41.92	3912075	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2025-02-14	1.43	1.87	-39.96	2685671	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2025-02-07	1.45	1.90	-38.09	4204485	Downward Expansion	-64	67
2025-01-31	1.40	1.93	-40.80	2399809	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2025-01-24	1.47	1.95	-39.46	2581888	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2025-01-17	1.50	1.98	-38.07	2774797	Downward Expansion	-70	54
2025-01-10	1.60	2.00	-32.84	2262296	Downward Expansion	-64	52
2025-01-03	1.82	2.03	-26.16	4216132	Downward Expansion	-56	49
2024-12-27	1.54	2.05	-38.68	2624962	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2024-12-20	1.66	2.08	-34.15	4106486	Downward Expansion	-66	43
2024-12-13	1.73	2.11	-33.66	2946050	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2024-12-06	1.87	2.14	-28.45	2999893	Downward Expansion	-53	47
2024-11-29	1.94	2.18	-24.35	1937751	Downward Expansion	-54	57
2024-11-22	1.86	2.20	-27.92	4038559	Downward Expansion	-54	55
2024-11-15	1.68	2.21	-34.52	5416419	Downward Expansion	-72	58
2024-11-08	1.87	2.23	-30.58	4261347	Downward Expansion	-59	30
2024-11-01	2.09	2.24	-18.56	1607520	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2024-10-25	2.09	2.27	-20.42	2040584	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2024-10-18	2.07	2.30	-21.39	1707554	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2024-10-11	2.05	2.30	-22.54	2263106	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2024-10-04	2.07	2.30	-21.63	1898333	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2024-09-27	2.09	2.30	-21.71	1829484	Downward Expansion	-51	33
2024-09-20	2.04	2.31	-23.84	2644190	Downward Expansion	-53	47
2024-09-13	2.05	2.31	-23.44	2344001	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2024-09-06	1.86	2.31	-27.77	1506241	Downward Expansion	-67	39
2024-08-30	1.95	2.33	-29.87	3280983	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2024-08-23	2.30	2.34	-19.15	1915771	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2024-08-16	2.27	2.35	-20.01	3804720	Downward Expansion	-51	47
2024-08-09	1.81	2.35	-33.38	3674532	Balance	-74	55
2024-08-02	2.06	2.38	-24.90	2689021	Balance	-61	27
2024-07-26	2.42	2.39	-15.83	2872925	Balance	3	6
2024-07-19	2.38	2.39	-20.45	2615492	Rotation Down	-15	26
2024-07-12	2.33	2.39	-26.23	2954910	Rotation Down	-26	39
2024-07-05	2.11	2.40	-34.31	1371853	Balance	-24	38
2024-06-28	2.15	2.42	-31.70	2591147	Balance	-20	20
2024-06-21	2.22	2.44	-30.49	2103411	Balance	-15	12
2024-06-14	2.42	2.46	-25.01	2262727	Balance	-0	3
2024-06-07	2.54	2.47	-19.62	2093596	Balance	16	10
2024-05-31	2.53	2.45	-18.89	1563974	Balance	46	36
2024-05-24	2.52	2.44	-21.66	3250191	Balance	46	42
2024-05-17	2.61	2.42	-18.81	5859335	Balance	44	34
2024-05-10	2.92	2.40	-8.37	5908097	Balance	58	26
2024-05-03	2.69	2.39	-15.64	13596619	Balance	5	5
2024-04-26	2.22	2.39	-30.59	4137266	Balance	-36	14
2024-04-19	2.11	2.42	-32.39	4697266	Balance	-9	15
2024-04-12	2.38	2.44	-28.70	6704163	Balance	9	19
2024-04-05	2.83	2.49	-16.64	10358641	Balance	23	22
2024-03-29	2.86	2.51	-17.21	13888591	Downward Expansion	-7	7
2024-03-22	2.23	2.52	-36.46	9025080	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2024-03-15	2.00	2.53	-42.17	5526130	Downward Expansion	-67	59
2024-03-08	2.18	2.56	-38.74	2691481	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2024-03-01	2.20	2.59	-40.24	3198606	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2024-02-23	2.02	2.63	-45.29	2522619	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2024-02-16	2.31	2.69	-37.91	4990962	Downward Expansion	-56	35
2024-02-09	2.31	2.73	-40.19	3037158	Downward Expansion	-56	31
2024-02-02	2.40	2.77	-38.06	3228906	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2024-01-26	2.44	2.80	-37.87	3196405	Downward Expansion	-50	26
2024-01-19	2.39	2.83	-40.01	4899005	Downward Expansion	-44	24
2024-01-12	2.47	2.86	-37.46	4318259	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2024-01-05	2.48	2.90	-36.53	3660020	Downward Expansion	-48	29
2023-12-29	2.51	2.94	-38.89	3494241	Downward Expansion	-47	26
2023-12-22	2.46	2.98	-40.90	4296763	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2023-12-15	2.34	3.02	-44.30	4915389	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2023-12-08	2.73	3.06	-34.34	2976741	Downward Expansion	-27	26
2023-12-01	2.91	3.10	-31.40	3254826	Downward Expansion	-32	20
2023-11-24	2.72	3.13	-38.01	2787054	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2023-11-17	2.74	3.15	-38.42	8465169	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2023-11-10	1.88	3.16	-57.89	4060594	Downward Expansion	-76	86
2023-11-03	2.27	3.21	-48.99	3425057	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2023-10-27	1.86	3.24	-55.97	3232962	Downward Expansion	-85	86
2023-10-20	2.18	3.29	-50.25	3815279	Downward Expansion	-79	78

Price vs TrendAbove+2.1%

Trend directionRising+8.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-13.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-10.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.4%

Price momentumPositive+44.2%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.61×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

19 / ±100

-32.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

12 /100

-22.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GRWG Directional State ↗ GRWG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance61

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion46

Deceleration92

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 55%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-3.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.7%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-08-14	Developing	+20.4%
Rotation Up	2026-05-22	2026-06-26	Developing	-22.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-05-15	Developing	+42.5%
Rotation Down	2026-02-06	2026-02-20	New	-9.8%
Deceleration	2025-11-07	2026-01-30	Established	-26.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-31	Developing	+0.7%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	+17.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-11	2025-08-08	Developing	+1.0%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-07-04	New	-9.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-16	2025-06-13	Extended	-49.8%
Balance	2024-07-26	2024-08-09	New	-25.2%
Rotation Down	2024-07-12	2024-07-19	New	+2.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing50

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution36

Stage 4 · Declining29

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 29/100
Current Relative Strength: -10.51
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +44.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +21.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 68th percentile34 in cohort

Test GRWG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.50×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.61×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GRWG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1.54falling

Slow Activity USD 1.54rising

Trend Reference USD 1.47+2.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 1.73-13.4% close margin

Structural low USD 1.02shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +10.7%

Annualized volatility +57.0%

From structural high -37.5%

From structural low +49.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	15	-8.2%-26.0% to +18.4%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-9.5%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-6.0%-48.6% to +45.9%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-11.2%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-26.9%-75.6% to +60.4%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-37.8%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-56.3%-90.5% to +43.2%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-64.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GRWG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map