Weekly structural research · LIS · Industrials

TDSA Stage Analysis

Teixeira Duarte, S.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.444Tenure DevelopingBenchmark PSI20.LS

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and expanding.

Direction -15−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 31/100directional strength

Maturity 42/100lifecycle context

Confidence 75/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedexpanding separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +54.8%EUR 0.2868 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.444	0.4641	-19.37	16039346	Deceleration	-15	31
2026-10-02	0.4795	0.4641	-14.90	24902561	Deceleration	22	13
2026-09-25	0.486	0.4638	-16.69	37235343	Deceleration	24	14
2026-09-18	0.4765	0.4646	-17.44	24529375	Deceleration	20	13
2026-09-11	0.487	0.466	-16.25	26779835	Deceleration	25	15
2026-09-04	0.482	0.4673	-16.40	5986343	Deceleration	30	16
2026-08-28	0.4785	0.4679	-17.53	4845060	Deceleration	32	18
2026-08-21	0.48	0.468	-16.65	3420548	Deceleration	34	19
2026-08-14	0.4905	0.4698	-14.20	2371582	Deceleration	36	21
2026-08-07	0.485	0.4738	-14.88	1390128	Deceleration	9	14
2026-07-31	0.4885	0.4789	-13.91	3308100	Rotation Up	12	12
2026-07-24	0.4855	0.484	-15.34	1265417	Rotation Up	29	28
2026-07-17	0.485	0.4893	-13.93	4484954	Rotation Up	24	53
2026-07-10	0.49	0.4954	-13.40	2456295	Rotation Up	25	59
2026-07-03	0.544	0.5004	-5.95	7852934	Rotation Up	40	64
2026-06-26	0.552	0.505	-2.11	5991071	Downward Expansion	23	34
2026-06-19	0.497	0.5091	-11.01	8833258	Downward Expansion	-2	11
2026-06-12	0.465	0.5151	-16.23	15130889	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2026-06-05	0.4175	0.5234	-23.07	2515378	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2026-05-29	0.4305	0.5322	-22.15	23709305	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2026-05-22	0.4245	0.541	-23.89	11421213	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2026-05-15	0.4185	0.5494	-23.80	15883082	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2026-05-08	0.4265	0.5598	-22.30	26725581	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2026-05-01	0.446	0.5646	-20.71	16673997	Downward Expansion	-49	45
2026-04-24	0.4105	0.5673	-24.71	14702704	Downward Expansion	-71	56
2026-04-17	0.446	0.5721	-18.20	21134468	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-04-10	0.45	0.5776	-19.19	20744369	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-04-03	0.446	0.5806	-18.43	18804958	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-03-27	0.406	0.5805	-20.97	12898716	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2026-03-20	0.405	0.5806	-19.43	13814823	Downward Expansion	-85	89
2026-03-13	0.445	0.5836	-14.45	15412476	Rotation Down	-81	79
2026-03-06	0.471	0.5864	-6.45	13613944	Rotation Down	-50	55
2026-02-27	0.508	0.5869	-1.46	11021337	Rotation Down	-39	60
2026-02-20	0.52	0.5834	4.34	9621023	Rotation Down	-38	71
2026-02-13	0.526	0.5789	8.14	29794550	Rotation Down	-29	68
2026-02-06	0.498	0.5744	6.27	23186957	Rotation Down	-41	72
2026-01-30	0.482	0.5701	6.26	36755307	Deceleration	-49	68
2026-01-23	0.536	0.5653	21.49	22929109	Deceleration	-20	27
2026-01-16	0.61	0.5577	39.53	19833791	Deceleration	13	14
2026-01-09	0.636	0.5469	50.75	12250094	Deceleration	32	17
2026-01-02	0.644	0.5349	58.62	14246255	Deceleration	34	20
2025-12-26	0.642	0.5271	66.58	10523140	Deceleration	38	26
2025-12-19	0.668	0.5163	77.51	17506109	Deceleration	42	32
2025-12-12	0.642	0.5048	80.26	17091782	Deceleration	43	34
2025-12-05	0.68	0.4913	91.89	15854872	Upward Expansion	57	45
2025-11-28	0.676	0.4754	98.97	9593992	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-11-21	0.676	0.4588	106.94	21293751	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-11-14	0.714	0.4418	120.77	33528228	Upward Expansion	70	64
2025-11-07	0.682	0.4232	120.38	9870602	Upward Expansion	65	67
2025-10-31	0.696	0.405	126.48	23309081	Upward Expansion	71	61
2025-10-24	0.676	0.3864	129.83	42392686	Upward Expansion	73	59
2025-10-17	0.73	0.3692	160.78	75559592	Upward Expansion	87	65
2025-10-10	0.57	0.3493	115.09	25722192	Upward Expansion	67	59
2025-10-03	0.528	0.3341	107.42	16254406	Upward Expansion	63	65
2025-09-26	0.554	0.3202	129.26	33255393	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-09-19	0.61	0.3052	170.13	51436692	Upward Expansion	85	64
2025-09-12	0.54	0.2887	148.34	46987396	Upward Expansion	79	58
2025-09-05	0.443	0.2737	113.03	24887818	Upward Expansion	62	54
2025-08-29	0.409	0.2619	101.39	45460665	Upward Expansion	65	58
2025-08-22	0.496	0.2512	144.41	28308525	Upward Expansion	72	80
2025-08-15	0.53	0.2376	177.85	24280209	Upward Expansion	86	81
2025-08-08	0.484	0.223	165.10	62801869	Upward Expansion	84	75
2025-08-01	0.403	0.2096	134.25	17064238	Upward Expansion	71	68
2025-07-25	0.386	0.1988	129.49	13585996	Upward Expansion	69	61
2025-07-18	0.392	0.1886	141.53	20874148	Upward Expansion	74	59
2025-07-11	0.367	0.1782	131.89	23362878	Upward Expansion	73	54
2025-07-04	0.338	0.1688	118.84	16098840	Upward Expansion	67	50
2025-06-27	0.309	0.1604	112.59	19152494	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-06-20	0.285	0.1531	103.28	29607814	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-06-13	0.276	0.1465	100.75	50657402	Upward Expansion	68	68
2025-06-06	0.411	0.1402	206.72	42146837	Upward Expansion	96	98
2025-05-30	0.318	0.1295	150.21	19684582	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-05-23	0.323	0.1219	164.45	33570518	Upward Expansion	98	98
2025-05-16	0.238	0.1142	104.39	14567578	Upward Expansion	91	90
2025-05-09	0.202	0.1094	83.67	17721158	Upward Expansion	86	83
2025-05-02	0.177	0.1059	64.36	5411950	Upward Expansion	81	69
2025-04-25	0.166	0.1031	56.45	4608684	Upward Expansion	80	67
2025-04-18	0.158	0.1007	54.96	3748316	Upward Expansion	79	69
2025-04-11	0.135	0.0986	37.99	5470226	Upward Expansion	65	70
2025-04-04	0.137	0.0973	38.21	5765993	Upward Expansion	67	84
2025-03-28	0.1615	0.0961	56.02	15850224	Upward Expansion	97	97
2025-03-21	0.1315	0.0939	30.87	12241431	Upward Expansion	90	90
2025-03-14	0.1145	0.0928	14.69	1908182	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-03-07	0.1105	0.0919	9.77	4693971	Rotation Up	77	82
2025-02-28	0.105	0.0915	4.32	6341015	Rotation Up	46	66
2025-02-21	0.115	0.0913	15.58	22706233	Rotation Up	53	61
2025-02-14	0.091	0.0908	-7.85	1363639	Downward Expansion	1	13
2025-02-07	0.089	0.0914	-8.27	530331	Downward Expansion	-19	23
2025-01-31	0.0872	0.0919	-10.96	570929	Downward Expansion	-31	24
2025-01-24	0.0864	0.0924	-12.15	1543122	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2025-01-17	0.092	0.0929	-7.93	3187212	Downward Expansion	-34	30
2025-01-10	0.0822	0.0932	-14.67	1565091	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2025-01-03	0.0802	0.0938	-18.65	1292406	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2024-12-27	0.08	0.0945	-17.84	2076862	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2024-12-20	0.0808	0.0953	-15.48	1899770	Downward Expansion	-84	83
2024-12-13	0.0846	0.0959	-12.30	1500107	Downward Expansion	-75	78
2024-12-06	0.0854	0.0964	-10.94	1224616	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2024-11-29	0.0888	0.0969	-8.24	877159	Downward Expansion	-63	70
2024-11-22	0.0876	0.0975	-9.00	399458	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2024-11-15	0.088	0.0982	-8.55	454090	Downward Expansion	-70	67
2024-11-08	0.0898	0.0987	-5.78	1145010	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2024-11-01	0.09	0.0994	-8.19	886876	Downward Expansion	-65	42
2024-10-25	0.0932	0.1002	-3.44	397925	Downward Expansion	-58	41
2024-10-18	0.0938	0.1007	-4.79	985140	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-10-11	0.096	0.1012	-3.49	823749	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2024-10-04	0.0926	0.1016	-5.15	428516	Downward Expansion	-60	39
2024-09-27	0.0942	0.1023	-5.69	516960	Downward Expansion	-55	29
2024-09-20	0.0958	0.1026	-2.62	584659	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2024-09-13	0.0958	0.1032	-4.14	2168523	Downward Expansion	-52	27
2024-09-06	0.0994	0.1035	1.41	1992169	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2024-08-30	0.096	0.1041	-2.43	582055	Downward Expansion	-56	54
2024-08-23	0.098	0.1049	0.69	1273350	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2024-08-16	0.09	0.1055	-6.76	1892630	Balance	-74	67
2024-08-09	0.0978	0.1062	2.99	1331465	Balance	-54	31
2024-08-02	0.097	0.1058	1.75	913695	Balance	-56	23
2024-07-26	0.10	0.1051	3.86	4426229	Balance	-35	19
2024-07-19	0.1115	0.1039	13.80	5812403	Balance	22	18
2024-07-12	0.1025	0.1024	4.91	1074164	Balance	-7	7
2024-07-05	0.103	0.1013	7.72	775186	Deceleration	9	8
2024-06-28	0.102	0.1002	10.14	507741	Deceleration	-3	9
2024-06-21	0.101	0.0991	7.82	353016	Deceleration	3	10
2024-06-14	0.1005	0.0981	7.98	869907	Deceleration	1	12
2024-06-07	0.10	0.0971	4.58	697277	Deceleration	0	15
2024-05-31	0.1025	0.0961	5.34	917536	Deceleration	5	16
2024-05-24	0.0998	0.0951	2.32	809176	Deceleration	2	14
2024-05-17	0.10	0.0941	2.79	2670002	Deceleration	6	11
2024-05-10	0.0998	0.0932	2.34	2404828	Deceleration	13	13
2024-05-03	0.1075	0.0923	14.77	1589767	Deceleration	37	22
2024-04-26	0.108	0.0913	16.39	701238	Deceleration	40	28
2024-04-19	0.104	0.0903	18.24	1491588	Upward Expansion	41	28
2024-04-12	0.1095	0.0894	24.17	1078784	Upward Expansion	52	33
2024-04-05	0.1135	0.0884	31.90	1068712	Upward Expansion	57	36
2024-03-29	0.11	0.0872	27.42	716003	Deceleration	44	32
2024-03-22	0.1085	0.0862	27.43	1019746	Deceleration	43	32
2024-03-15	0.108	0.0853	29.47	540353	Upward Expansion	46	36
2024-03-08	0.1135	0.0843	36.22	2075975	Upward Expansion	53	39
2024-03-01	0.104	0.0832	24.64	610515	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-02-23	0.1115	0.0824	33.10	1138451	Upward Expansion	65	60
2024-02-16	0.105	0.0814	26.80	1705736	Upward Expansion	67	84
2024-02-09	0.118	0.0807	44.69	1861863	Upward Expansion	75	91
2024-02-02	0.12	0.0795	45.01	3674002	Upward Expansion	84	94
2024-01-26	0.116	0.0782	40.75	13836359	Rotation Up	87	88
2024-01-19	0.111	0.0771	35.06	37693781	Rotation Up	51	59
2024-01-12	0.0876	0.0762	3.72	10442256	Rotation Up	13	15
2024-01-05	0.074	0.076	-12.18	3244023	Downward Expansion	-47	30
2023-12-29	0.065	0.0761	-21.35	2140104	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2023-12-22	0.066	0.0766	-20.62	843713	Downward Expansion	-68	44
2023-12-15	0.07	0.0772	-16.12	2663961	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2023-12-08	0.069	0.0776	-19.33	1169575	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2023-12-01	0.0708	0.078	-17.02	889084	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2023-11-24	0.07	0.0783	-15.76	817367	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2023-11-17	0.07	0.0787	-15.30	349814	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2023-11-10	0.0698	0.0792	-15.46	867433	Downward Expansion	-74	73
2023-11-03	0.072	0.0796	-15.16	1985593	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2023-10-27	0.0704	0.0799	-14.77	893595	Downward Expansion	-79	74
2023-10-20	0.0728	0.0803	-9.54	1391840	Downward Expansion	-75	68

Price vs TrendBelow-4.3%

Trend directionFalling-3.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+54.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-38.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-19.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-6.0%

Price momentumNegative-1.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.97×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-15 / ±100

-40.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

31 /100

+15.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TDSA Directional State ↗ TDSA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance50

Rotation Up21

Upward Expansion52

Deceleration63

Rotation Down38

Downward Expansion36

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 4%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 20%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 34%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-09	Developing	-8.5%
Rotation Up	2026-07-03	2026-07-31	Developing	-10.2%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-06-26	Established	+36.3%
Rotation Down	2026-02-06	2026-03-13	Developing	-10.6%
Deceleration	2025-12-12	2026-01-30	Developing	-24.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-12-05	Extended	+493.9%
Rotation Up	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	-3.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-23	2025-02-14	Established	-7.1%
Balance	2024-07-12	2024-08-16	Developing	-12.2%
Deceleration	2024-04-26	2024-07-05	Developing	-4.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-05	2024-04-19	New	-8.4%
Deceleration	2024-03-22	2024-03-29	New	+1.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-02	2024-03-15	Developing	-10.0%
Rotation Up	2024-01-12	2024-01-26	New	+32.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing31

Stage 2 · Advancing8

Stage 3 · Distribution60

Stage 4 · Declining92

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus PSI20.LS

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.37
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -1.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +0.7%
Industrials regime cohort: 50th percentile2 in cohort

Test TDSA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.44×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.97×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TDSA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.4691falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.4759rising

Trend Reference EUR 0.4641-4.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.2868+54.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.40shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +35.7%

From structural high -45.5%

From structural low +16.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs PSI20.LS	Regime survived	Read
Near term	16	-1.4%-21.7% to +10.4%	+18.8%	+18.8%	-2.4%	+62.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	-5.1%-30.7% to +6.4%	+28.6%	+28.6%	-9.9%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-9.2%-27.6% to +1.0%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-13.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+33.2%-16.7% to +46.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+29.3%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TDSA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map