Weekly structural research · MEX · Real Estate

FIBRAPL14 Stage Analysis

FIBRA Prologis

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 74.77Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 34/100directional strength

Maturity 37/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +13.3%MXN 65.98 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	74.77	77.63	-1.31	2101568	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-09-18	73.29	77.97	-0.75	26279421	Downward Expansion	-64	37
2026-09-11	75.69	78.28	1.63	2537945	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2026-09-04	74.85	78.53	-0.87	9152327	Downward Expansion	-58	43
2026-08-28	75.75	78.86	-0.62	4286115	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2026-08-21	75.43	78.96	-1.38	513679	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2026-08-14	72.85	79.10	-2.86	449131	Downward Expansion	-77	68
2026-08-07	74.95	79.44	-3.94	413996	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2026-07-31	76.79	79.56	-1.68	1303478	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2026-07-24	75.08	79.49	-3.15	1377781	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2026-07-17	76.59	79.52	-1.59	649076	Rotation Down	-60	64
2026-07-10	76.62	79.45	-1.39	722036	Rotation Down	-33	50
2026-07-03	75.67	79.30	-3.45	635341	Balance	-37	45
2026-06-26	75.37	79.21	-4.16	5539336	Balance	-38	28
2026-06-19	79.91	79.23	0.75	2417254	Balance	24	11
2026-06-12	80.00	79.07	0.53	2920526	Balance	27	12
2026-06-05	79.63	78.94	2.82	3153935	Balance	28	12
2026-05-29	83.18	78.79	3.64	16823191	Balance	44	20
2026-05-22	79.70	78.43	-0.36	5984494	Balance	31	13
2026-05-15	79.88	78.13	0.46	5528768	Balance	45	24
2026-05-08	80.75	77.81	-1.12	4825653	Balance	49	41
2026-05-01	80.00	77.45	0.78	5093448	Balance	40	36
2026-04-24	84.11	77.22	3.84	5082407	Balance	59	46
2026-04-17	83.29	76.76	2.07	12909243	Balance	44	24
2026-04-10	80.07	76.32	-2.09	5613683	Balance	18	11
2026-04-03	78.50	75.99	-3.65	6098745	Balance	8	17
2026-03-27	77.01	75.69	-1.40	9126367	Upward Expansion	17	22
2026-03-20	76.53	75.35	1.85	9851729	Upward Expansion	21	17
2026-03-13	74.01	75.16	-3.75	9292598	Upward Expansion	20	13
2026-03-06	78.74	75.00	-0.24	7494498	Upward Expansion	55	38
2026-02-27	84.91	74.66	1.40	12869570	Upward Expansion	69	60
2026-02-20	82.43	74.11	-1.60	4695107	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-02-13	83.25	73.54	-0.68	5684847	Upward Expansion	67	57
2026-02-06	84.88	72.97	2.18	6903154	Upward Expansion	80	76
2026-01-30	78.77	72.33	-0.67	6483434	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-01-23	79.42	71.99	-0.77	7555176	Upward Expansion	63	68
2026-01-16	83.18	71.66	5.62	8738427	Upward Expansion	83	74
2026-01-09	78.48	71.06	1.55	5398768	Upward Expansion	70	51
2026-01-02	74.66	70.68	-0.28	3300558	Deceleration	42	24
2025-12-26	76.10	70.45	-0.53	1555369	Deceleration	51	26
2025-12-19	74.44	70.29	-0.13	7443712	Upward Expansion	44	25
2025-12-12	72.00	70.00	-4.47	3076810	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-12-05	73.22	69.80	-0.80	7545588	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-11-28	75.82	69.61	2.41	11041027	Upward Expansion	65	69
2025-11-21	75.27	69.29	4.57	7976001	Upward Expansion	63	66
2025-11-14	75.89	68.95	4.73	6050632	Upward Expansion	69	63
2025-11-07	75.19	68.46	2.08	5209053	Upward Expansion	69	47
2025-10-31	72.56	68.00	-0.56	11559274	Upward Expansion	58	31
2025-10-24	70.51	67.73	-0.97	4164487	Upward Expansion	49	29
2025-10-17	70.29	67.46	-2.30	5402857	Upward Expansion	52	32
2025-10-10	69.92	67.18	-1.03	3796732	Upward Expansion	55	40
2025-10-03	73.11	66.94	1.02	4095538	Upward Expansion	69	53
2025-09-26	70.22	66.58	-3.45	3982700	Upward Expansion	56	37
2025-09-19	70.32	66.30	-1.59	11665611	Upward Expansion	56	30
2025-09-12	69.96	66.03	-3.05	4880379	Upward Expansion	57	37
2025-09-05	69.56	65.84	-1.53	1812692	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-08-29	66.96	65.64	-2.38	7833007	Upward Expansion	49	37
2025-08-22	70.65	65.44	2.16	2958233	Deceleration	59	47
2025-08-15	69.15	65.00	1.62	4458016	Deceleration	51	27
2025-08-08	68.65	64.49	1.31	5239626	Deceleration	50	22
2025-08-01	68.45	63.96	3.09	7238763	Deceleration	38	17
2025-07-25	65.17	63.43	-2.40	4528093	Deceleration	29	14
2025-07-18	66.28	63.12	1.27	3546858	Deceleration	36	20
2025-07-11	65.57	62.79	-0.15	8085429	Deceleration	37	21
2025-07-04	68.75	62.52	2.23	7026118	Deceleration	54	30
2025-06-27	69.44	62.16	4.42	6646366	Deceleration	57	31
2025-06-20	65.11	61.76	0.13	17187398	Upward Expansion	49	31
2025-06-13	67.12	61.56	1.22	7474493	Upward Expansion	53	37
2025-06-06	67.73	61.34	1.14	9633598	Upward Expansion	55	42
2025-05-30	71.40	61.17	7.07	10367727	Upward Expansion	74	61
2025-05-23	65.72	60.90	-2.28	3630215	Upward Expansion	55	52
2025-05-16	65.95	60.78	-1.15	3794138	Upward Expansion	56	57
2025-05-09	67.56	60.70	3.88	5516993	Upward Expansion	67	57
2025-05-02	66.28	60.57	3.49	6899541	Deceleration	64	39
2025-04-25	64.96	60.39	-0.01	13708974	Deceleration	60	31
2025-04-18	61.27	60.25	0.93	2653843	Deceleration	38	20
2025-04-11	61.48	60.21	4.35	7098045	Deceleration	49	26
2025-04-04	64.26	60.16	9.30	7314805	Deceleration	60	34
2025-03-28	62.45	60.01	3.05	3834587	Deceleration	41	25
2025-03-21	61.96	59.88	3.24	6087708	Rotation Up	51	30
2025-03-14	62.71	59.85	4.91	10159827	Rotation Up	19	22
2025-03-07	62.21	59.91	3.45	10655219	Rotation Up	20	40
2025-02-28	62.05	59.93	4.15	22389381	Rotation Up	22	48
2025-02-21	62.04	59.76	1.73	8849924	Rotation Up	22	36
2025-02-14	64.36	59.53	5.22	7674110	Rotation Up	34	39
2025-02-07	63.40	59.25	6.62	14438006	Downward Expansion	18	24
2025-01-31	60.95	59.21	6.23	6519433	Downward Expansion	-23	14
2025-01-24	57.71	59.14	0.82	10370380	Downward Expansion	-59	46
2025-01-17	53.81	59.06	-2.97	4412029	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2025-01-10	52.56	59.18	-4.38	4992947	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2025-01-03	52.62	59.36	-2.84	2868072	Rotation Down	-82	75
2024-12-27	55.98	59.63	2.86	981555	Rotation Down	-41	56
2024-12-20	56.20	59.89	2.90	24313024	Rotation Down	-34	54
2024-12-13	57.46	60.02	1.34	7722643	Rotation Down	-27	47
2024-12-06	58.00	60.23	3.05	13168836	Balance	-23	32
2024-11-29	57.40	60.35	5.31	22905293	Balance	-26	24
2024-11-22	59.20	60.48	7.59	17314450	Balance	16	11
2024-11-15	60.43	60.69	10.13	12073715	Upward Expansion	33	18
2024-11-08	62.79	60.74	11.85	19877254	Upward Expansion	53	43
2024-11-01	63.20	60.75	15.82	9438484	Upward Expansion	29	40
2024-10-25	62.08	60.76	11.82	13906069	Balance	25	35
2024-10-18	63.67	60.91	12.53	9448984	Balance	31	37
2024-10-11	63.61	60.95	14.31	10321918	Balance	21	23
2024-10-04	60.90	60.99	9.68	10201853	Balance	-21	10
2024-09-27	60.74	61.17	9.52	9795462	Balance	-24	10
2024-09-20	60.17	60.98	10.37	16191990	Balance	-28	14
2024-09-13	59.79	60.78	10.70	11716356	Balance	-17	8
2024-09-06	59.78	60.54	13.41	8541112	Balance	4	9
2024-08-30	58.47	60.31	7.84	19437577	Balance	-1	12
2024-08-23	61.31	60.08	12.52	15785193	Balance	14	17
2024-08-16	64.38	59.76	17.62	15397926	Balance	18	13
2024-08-09	62.79	59.38	17.77	56266766	Deceleration	5	9
2024-08-02	56.99	59.07	9.37	9107716	Deceleration	-24	20
2024-07-26	55.05	58.98	5.07	10220975	Deceleration	-35	23
2024-07-19	56.12	59.04	5.89	8544146	Rotation Down	-24	19
2024-07-12	62.20	59.03	15.18	12779237	Rotation Down	-4	17
2024-07-05	58.92	58.85	15.32	4192553	Rotation Down	-17	38
2024-06-28	55.17	58.76	8.37	8995747	Deceleration	-30	42
2024-06-21	57.39	58.69	12.49	9428480	Deceleration	0	12
2024-06-14	57.97	58.51	15.49	10543382	Deceleration	3	9
2024-06-07	60.81	58.27	20.14	14860368	Deceleration	34	17
2024-05-31	63.71	57.88	21.77	16344995	Deceleration	42	21
2024-05-24	60.02	57.37	15.07	8444750	Deceleration	35	18
2024-05-17	63.82	56.89	18.49	9316853	Deceleration	44	28
2024-05-10	61.49	56.29	14.71	14421352	Deceleration	40	26
2024-05-03	61.52	55.67	16.70	10576882	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-04-26	65.37	55.13	23.36	6115521	Upward Expansion	67	47
2024-04-19	61.90	54.35	21.82	10387656	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-04-12	63.29	53.73	23.73	10640951	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-04-05	63.49	53.00	21.62	6509996	Upward Expansion	67	86
2024-03-29	66.53	52.29	29.86	4938936	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-03-22	64.83	51.47	29.13	6925459	Upward Expansion	79	92
2024-03-15	64.84	50.73	30.77	22103941	Upward Expansion	86	90
2024-03-08	66.13	50.03	37.38	21081405	Deceleration	89	80
2024-03-01	55.14	49.23	14.17	11568006	Deceleration	51	33
2024-02-23	54.26	48.84	10.45	5432093	Deceleration	34	20
2024-02-16	52.47	48.49	6.18	8380873	Deceleration	30	21
2024-02-09	52.78	48.19	6.62	9476462	Deceleration	31	24
2024-02-02	51.64	47.86	2.90	14343405	Deceleration	34	27
2024-01-26	51.68	47.65	5.67	6726766	Deceleration	40	26
2024-01-19	53.07	47.40	11.62	6688951	Upward Expansion	49	43
2024-01-12	53.35	47.06	12.35	4871826	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-01-05	54.35	46.77	13.75	4359668	Upward Expansion	67	64
2023-12-29	56.99	46.37	17.23	3293912	Upward Expansion	75	82
2023-12-22	55.90	45.88	15.69	7842544	Upward Expansion	72	82
2023-12-15	56.59	45.42	18.10	15670230	Upward Expansion	83	91
2023-12-08	56.20	44.91	23.89	13439087	Upward Expansion	88	94
2023-12-01	53.31	44.41	19.26	123548934	Upward Expansion	83	91
2023-11-24	51.75	43.99	18.44	14218602	Upward Expansion	83	91
2023-11-17	50.84	43.71	17.46	11774322	Upward Expansion	83	86
2023-11-10	49.01	43.52	16.92	7378480	Upward Expansion	79	80
2023-11-03	48.56	43.39	16.37	6709408	Upward Expansion	77	72
2023-10-27	45.61	43.20	15.03	7295848	Upward Expansion	62	54
2023-10-20	45.66	43.18	17.48	14625394	Balance	61	42
2023-10-13	42.98	43.21	8.72	11351250	Balance	2	9
2023-10-06	45.24	43.27	14.22	8939519	Balance	17	11

Price vs TrendBelow-3.7%

Trend directionFalling-2.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+13.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.9%

Price momentumNegative-2.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.32×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-52 / ±100

+5.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

34 /100

-15.0 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

FIBRAPL14 Directional State ↗ FIBRAPL14 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion4

Deceleration55

Rotation Down41

Downward Expansion73

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 20%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 39%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-09-25	Developing	-0.4%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	-0.0%
Balance	2026-04-03	2026-07-03	Established	-3.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-27	Developing	-1.9%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2026-01-02	New	-1.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-12-19	Established	+11.2%
Deceleration	2025-06-27	2025-08-22	Developing	+1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-09	2025-06-20	Developing	-3.6%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-05-02	Developing	+6.1%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-03-21	Developing	-3.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-10	2025-02-07	Developing	+20.6%
Rotation Down	2024-12-13	2025-01-03	New	-8.4%
Balance	2024-11-22	2024-12-06	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-11-15	New	-4.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing43

Stage 2 · Advancing20

Stage 3 · Distribution55

Stage 4 · Declining80

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 70/100
Current Relative Strength: -1.31
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -2.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.4%
Real Estate regime cohort: 25th percentile12 in cohort

Test FIBRAPL14 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.45×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.32×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore FIBRAPL14 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 74.64falling

Slow Activity MXN 76.70falling

Trend Reference MXN 77.63-3.7% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 65.98+13.3% close margin

Structural low MXN 71.61shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.4%

Annualized volatility +18.8%

From structural high -14.7%

From structural low +9.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+0.5%-2.8% to +20.6%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+1.4%	+60.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	2	+20.1%+17.0% to +23.2%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+25.5%+24.8% to +26.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+12.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+41.4%+33.5% to +49.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+24.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

FIBRAPL14 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map