Weekly structural research ยท JPX ยท Technology

5252 Stage Analysis

Nihon Knowledge Co,Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 1,024.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^N225
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Rotation Up ยท Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
Direction 85โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 89/100directional strength
Maturity 24/100lifecycle context
Confidence 81/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation
Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +96.5%JPY 521.23 ยท improving
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-251,024.00812.7225.2730000Rotation Up8589
2026-09-181,019.00808.5928.15103700Rotation Up5765
2026-09-11892.00803.2414.82209000Balance3216
2026-09-04745.00798.16-5.1121600Balance-4019
2026-08-28757.00796.34-5.3917800Balance-1817
2026-08-21789.00792.37-0.64900Balance1531
2026-08-14826.00786.240.233200Balance3037
2026-08-07830.00778.365.8811700Balance3326
2026-07-31810.00770.345.763100Balance137
2026-07-24790.00763.583.14600Balance04
2026-07-17746.00757.03-1.58900Deceleration-2115
2026-07-10710.00751.84-12.2610000Deceleration-3828
2026-07-03815.00745.81-1.137100Deceleration2316
2026-06-26749.00734.50-8.461200Deceleration326
2026-06-19698.00726.02-16.9416000Deceleration-1427
2026-06-12763.00718.87-2.163300Deceleration99
2026-06-05770.00710.12-2.05900Deceleration1511
2026-05-29779.00700.91-0.5028400Deceleration1811
2026-05-22780.00691.234.405900Deceleration2013
2026-05-15777.00681.977.3934900Deceleration2112
2026-05-08785.00672.136.502800Deceleration3119
2026-05-01800.00663.6614.5277100Deceleration3123
2026-04-24785.00655.6612.3358100Deceleration3329
2026-04-17772.00645.9212.9710000Deceleration3927
2026-04-10777.00636.4516.9949200Upward Expansion4739
2026-04-03765.00626.5924.1620600Upward Expansion6356
2026-03-27899.00615.6046.4630700Upward Expansion6867
2026-03-20906.91600.2949.7470400Upward Expansion7078
2026-03-13928.67584.4354.2563400Upward Expansion8190
2026-03-06894.05567.5545.8252000Upward Expansion8293
2026-02-27899.99551.8040.5374900Upward Expansion9498
2026-02-20858.45535.7840.46104600Upward Expansion9697
2026-02-13739.77521.3522.27101100Upward Expansion9092
2026-02-06690.32511.1320.8094600Upward Expansion8779
2026-01-30637.90502.9214.4849000Upward Expansion7966
2026-01-23605.27495.578.3315200Upward Expansion6977
2026-01-16589.44489.695.949400Upward Expansion6581
2026-01-09589.44483.7510.5422900Upward Expansion6582
2026-01-02607.25478.2818.2011700Upward Expansion7986
2025-12-26593.40472.4715.4546900Upward Expansion7674
2025-12-19590.43466.9818.61117900Deceleration7757
2025-12-12529.11461.724.20231500Deceleration5929
2025-12-05475.71458.13-5.3912500Deceleration3114
2025-11-28494.50456.93-1.1013100Deceleration3419
2025-11-21483.62454.660.0716500Deceleration3519
2025-11-14500.43453.180.1111800Deceleration3925
2025-11-07493.51450.68-0.9413200Upward Expansion4024
2025-10-31488.57445.43-5.8814000Upward Expansion5537
2025-10-24502.41439.642.7521500Upward Expansion6353
2025-10-17481.64433.912.0323100Upward Expansion6571
2025-10-10531.09428.6911.3131800Upward Expansion7587
2025-10-03559.77421.8323.4899100Upward Expansion9291
2025-09-26492.85413.9110.1415000Upward Expansion7779
2025-09-19487.91408.239.9434500Upward Expansion7975
2025-09-12481.31402.749.11181800Upward Expansion7966
2025-09-05435.16397.412.586300Upward Expansion5334
2025-08-29439.77393.744.2010500Balance5732
2025-08-22431.20389.842.3112900Balance3018
2025-08-15422.30386.24-1.6812300Upward Expansion2515
2025-08-08421.31382.881.5110500Upward Expansion3722
2025-08-01419.67379.503.3312300Upward Expansion5132
2025-07-25425.27376.192.7280100Upward Expansion5233
2025-07-18433.18372.618.6712900Deceleration5536
2025-07-11444.06369.1312.0463900Deceleration5933
2025-07-04417.36365.924.7115900Upward Expansion4024
2025-06-27428.90363.736.5112600Upward Expansion4530
2025-06-20411.42361.266.7715600Upward Expansion4432
2025-06-13425.27359.1611.983300Upward Expansion5742
2025-06-06432.85356.8314.348100Upward Expansion6147
2025-05-30428.90355.0012.7422200Upward Expansion6251
2025-05-23432.52353.5016.23145800Upward Expansion6759
2025-05-16421.31352.1211.5929100Upward Expansion6786
2025-05-09439.77351.3117.3843500Rotation Up7691
2025-05-02426.59350.0115.79131700Rotation Up5179
2025-04-25439.12348.9622.7835400Rotation Up6471
2025-04-18425.27347.7822.321171800Rotation Up4945
2025-04-11336.26347.350.04439500Downward Expansion-1613
2025-04-04314.83349.71-7.3398700Downward Expansion-7851
2025-03-28330.33352.69-12.0235700Downward Expansion-4642
2025-03-21325.00355.36-15.2430000Downward Expansion-5254
2025-03-14325.33358.47-14.2830000Downward Expansion-5255
2025-03-07322.42361.47-15.2511700Downward Expansion-5558
2025-02-28322.42364.33-16.4215300Downward Expansion-5358
2025-02-21323.07367.89-20.2616500Downward Expansion-5258
2025-02-14321.45371.60-22.0536300Downward Expansion-5761
2025-02-07325.00375.79-21.0835100Downward Expansion-6363
2025-01-31322.74380.07-23.8529400Downward Expansion-6566
2025-01-24323.39384.82-25.2070500Downward Expansion-6767
2025-01-17321.45388.47-23.6432400Downward Expansion-6886
2025-01-10319.84391.79-26.1934500Downward Expansion-7691
2025-01-03320.48395.13-28.068100Downward Expansion-8393
2024-12-27317.90398.57-30.11137100Downward Expansion-9394
2024-12-20328.56402.08-25.5853700Downward Expansion-9292
2024-12-13347.94405.21-23.4215900Downward Expansion-7690
2024-12-06351.50407.31-22.6224600Downward Expansion-7591
2024-11-29354.73411.43-20.9434200Downward Expansion-7691
2024-11-22348.59415.23-23.2750100Downward Expansion-9296
2024-11-15355.37418.79-23.2665700Downward Expansion-9496
2024-11-08377.99421.91-20.8336000Downward Expansion-8286
2024-11-01383.80425.84-17.2416800Downward Expansion-7773
2024-10-25391.23429.03-15.9022200Downward Expansion-7065
2024-10-18397.05432.33-17.6017100Downward Expansion-6557
2024-10-11400.60435.57-18.7719800Downward Expansion-6248
2024-10-04395.11438.29-18.4431500Downward Expansion-7150
2024-09-27403.83441.38-19.6315000Downward Expansion-6345
2024-09-20412.23โ€”โ€”22200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-13407.06โ€”โ€”21600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-06404.16โ€”โ€”22200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-30410.62โ€”โ€”25500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-23418.37โ€”โ€”8100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16415.14โ€”โ€”21300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-09408.36โ€”โ€”81000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-02429.03โ€”โ€”31200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-26434.52โ€”โ€”28200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-19447.12โ€”โ€”27000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-12453.26โ€”โ€”43800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-05465.22โ€”โ€”89400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-28432.91โ€”โ€”31800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-21421.28โ€”โ€”51900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-14419.99โ€”โ€”11700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-07423.54โ€”โ€”20400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-31423.22โ€”โ€”24900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-24422.57โ€”โ€”34800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-17410.94โ€”โ€”81000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-10474.91โ€”โ€”32400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-03468.77โ€”โ€”12300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-26455.52โ€”โ€”28200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-19449.06โ€”โ€”89400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-12495.91โ€”โ€”46500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-05479.43โ€”โ€”22800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-29490.09โ€”โ€”51600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-22494.22โ€”โ€”31800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-15482.42โ€”โ€”39600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-08487.84โ€”โ€”60000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-01483.06โ€”โ€”66900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-23499.00โ€”โ€”33300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-16484.65โ€”โ€”109500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-09487.84โ€”โ€”168300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-02513.35โ€”โ€”78300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-26514.94โ€”โ€”50100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-19503.46โ€”โ€”66000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-12494.53โ€”โ€”156600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-05484.65โ€”โ€”28200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-29465.52โ€”โ€”122100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-22460.74โ€”โ€”157500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-15477.64โ€”โ€”90600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-08496.45โ€”โ€”119100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-01526.10โ€”โ€”206400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-24510.80โ€”โ€”70500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-17488.80โ€”โ€”63300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-10479.87โ€”โ€”29700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-03462.01โ€”โ€”38700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-27466.48โ€”โ€”47400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-20465.84โ€”โ€”28500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-13471.26โ€”โ€”110700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-06442.56โ€”โ€”110700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+26.0%
Trend directionRising+7.4%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+96.5%
Fair Value directionClosing upward+47.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+25.3%
Relative strength directionImproving+33.7%
Price momentumPositive+13.9%
Volume balanceDemand-led6.84ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

85 / ยฑ100

+102.2 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

89 /100

+72.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up78
Upward Expansion91
Deceleration48
Rotation Down13
Downward Expansion25

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 105 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 36%Deceleration 21%Downward Expansion 28%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Rotation Up2026-09-182026-09-25New+0.5%
Balance2026-07-242026-09-11Developing+12.9%
Deceleration2026-04-172026-07-17Established-3.4%
Upward Expansion2025-12-262026-04-10Established+30.9%
Deceleration2025-11-142025-12-19Developing+18.0%
Upward Expansion2025-09-052025-11-07Developing+13.4%
Balance2025-08-222025-08-29New+2.0%
Upward Expansion2025-07-252025-08-15New-0.7%
Deceleration2025-07-112025-07-18New-2.4%
Upward Expansion2025-05-162025-07-04Developing-0.9%
Rotation Up2025-04-182025-05-09New+3.4%
Downward Expansion2024-09-272025-04-11Extended-16.7%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing21
Stage 2 ยท Advancing100
Stage 3 ยท Distribution51
Stage 4 ยท Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2C ยท Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation
100/100
Current Relative Strength
25.27
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+13.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-10.4%
Technology regime cohort
95th percentile82 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.18ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume6.84ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity JPY 941.27rising
Slow Activity JPY 816.39rising
Trend Reference JPY 812.72+26.0% close margin
Current Fair Value JPY 521.23+96.5% close margin
Structural low JPY 684.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +6.5%
Annualized volatility +50.5%
From structural high -1.5%
From structural low +118.0%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^N225 Regime survived Read
Near term1-0.9%-0.9% to -0.9%+0.0%+0.0%-9.6%+0.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1+1.9%+1.9% to +1.9%+100.0%+100.0%-12.8%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+13.3%+13.3% to +13.3%+100.0%+100.0%-23.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle1+81.5%+81.5% to +81.5%+100.0%+100.0%+13.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context