Weekly structural research · NYSE · Energy

BP Stage Analysis

BP PLC ADR

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 46.25Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Value reclamation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction 38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 13/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +37.2%USD 33.72 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	46.25	43.33	5.33	46273434	Rotation Up	38	33
2026-10-02	44.79	43.19	3.53	39195045	Rotation Up	29	37
2026-09-25	44.15	43.03	2.12	54874478	Rotation Up	19	34
2026-09-18	44.58	42.84	4.60	52179796	Rotation Up	20	33
2026-09-11	46.10	42.61	8.39	31466621	Balance	40	42
2026-09-04	43.81	42.30	2.58	50602623	Balance	26	21
2026-08-28	42.15	42.11	-1.00	50287679	Balance	18	15
2026-08-21	44.76	41.94	5.70	47645679	Balance	52	35
2026-08-14	42.53	41.64	-0.73	31757589	Balance	9	21
2026-08-07	41.13	41.37	-3.76	44081138	Balance	6	20
2026-07-31	44.67	41.11	8.28	46256415	Balance	22	24
2026-07-24	43.29	40.79	6.48	31286762	Rotation Down	10	12
2026-07-17	41.39	40.46	1.57	37371376	Rotation Down	-24	51
2026-07-10	38.73	40.19	-6.22	41503556	Rotation Down	-26	61
2026-07-03	37.40	40.04	-8.16	65685306	Rotation Down	-36	61
2026-06-26	37.13	39.96	-6.76	52552444	Deceleration	-39	43
2026-06-19	39.10	39.90	-4.02	38945523	Deceleration	-10	19
2026-06-12	42.78	39.77	6.06	35137569	Deceleration	29	18
2026-06-05	42.97	39.53	7.39	35044001	Deceleration	33	19
2026-05-29	41.87	39.27	2.43	66189090	Deceleration	37	22
2026-05-22	44.36	39.00	10.41	33241868	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-05-15	44.35	38.63	11.80	26042035	Upward Expansion	48	39
2026-05-08	42.86	38.22	8.73	45933821	Upward Expansion	50	41
2026-05-01	45.89	37.87	19.53	58779556	Upward Expansion	67	58
2026-04-24	45.74	37.43	20.97	37193897	Upward Expansion	68	62
2026-04-17	44.09	37.05	17.85	57960019	Upward Expansion	67	65
2026-04-10	45.92	36.68	28.81	60684147	Upward Expansion	71	88
2026-04-03	46.60	36.24	36.44	122424603	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-03-27	46.16	35.77	40.73	107994583	Upward Expansion	90	95
2026-03-20	44.28	35.36	32.74	115844702	Upward Expansion	89	93
2026-03-13	42.20	35.00	24.69	85937351	Upward Expansion	87	85
2026-03-06	39.99	34.70	16.74	73014981	Upward Expansion	80	72
2026-02-27	38.43	34.44	10.24	40983563	Upward Expansion	72	72
2026-02-20	37.76	34.17	7.90	34429001	Upward Expansion	69	75
2026-02-13	36.76	33.93	6.30	65432361	Upward Expansion	60	71
2026-02-06	38.08	33.72	8.71	49471857	Upward Expansion	81	78
2026-01-30	36.97	33.48	5.56	42539582	Deceleration	71	54
2026-01-23	35.66	33.23	2.41	28520637	Deceleration	59	34
2026-01-16	34.53	33.00	-1.03	48600245	Deceleration	33	15
2026-01-09	33.47	32.83	-4.39	63920319	Deceleration	21	16
2026-01-02	34.97	32.72	1.42	24503954	Deceleration	40	23
2025-12-26	33.45	32.48	-3.88	23450347	Deceleration	30	20
2025-12-19	33.13	32.29	-3.33	53072807	Upward Expansion	35	23
2025-12-12	34.42	32.10	0.69	32733909	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-12-05	34.97	31.90	1.89	34338160	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-11-28	35.24	31.66	3.28	18968142	Upward Expansion	68	79
2025-11-21	35.12	31.36	7.00	40318820	Upward Expansion	68	78
2025-11-14	35.66	31.10	6.83	34724331	Upward Expansion	80	80
2025-11-07	35.22	30.79	5.97	43044931	Deceleration	79	53
2025-10-31	33.83	30.45	0.41	33934032	Deceleration	55	32
2025-10-24	33.26	30.20	-0.48	31882334	Deceleration	45	26
2025-10-17	31.90	30.15	-2.72	30066023	Deceleration	41	30
2025-10-10	32.25	30.16	0.00	29373062	Upward Expansion	45	39
2025-10-03	32.89	30.12	-0.52	29170706	Upward Expansion	57	46
2025-09-26	34.37	30.03	4.96	32333762	Upward Expansion	76	57
2025-09-19	32.86	29.91	0.11	32286079	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-09-12	32.63	29.87	0.54	32576589	Upward Expansion	64	67
2025-09-05	32.67	29.86	2.15	32577337	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-08-29	33.92	29.76	6.27	34519475	Upward Expansion	78	87
2025-08-22	33.45	29.58	4.64	29071462	Upward Expansion	80	83
2025-08-15	33.06	29.43	3.56	36787226	Upward Expansion	82	77
2025-08-08	32.40	29.30	2.30	55953715	Rotation Up	80	67
2025-08-01	30.14	29.19	-2.73	31528833	Rotation Up	23	44
2025-07-25	30.56	29.12	-4.08	45731014	Rotation Up	28	49
2025-07-18	30.36	28.99	-3.65	27944307	Rotation Up	27	45
2025-07-11	30.98	28.85	-1.44	43644758	Balance	35	47
2025-07-04	29.36	28.74	-7.12	28004066	Balance	17	24
2025-06-27	28.80	28.64	-7.82	118107870	Balance	19	20
2025-06-20	29.66	28.58	-2.24	43082897	Balance	18	19
2025-06-13	30.11	28.51	-1.27	46819311	Balance	20	15
2025-06-06	27.80	28.39	-9.42	35736240	Balance	-8	9
2025-05-30	27.62	28.35	-8.97	23749250	Balance	-8	10
2025-05-23	27.61	28.32	-7.99	37192863	Rotation Down	-12	12
2025-05-16	28.25	28.35	-8.77	51819889	Rotation Down	-16	17
2025-05-09	27.81	28.35	-6.01	89098120	Rotation Down	-21	33
2025-05-02	26.27	28.40	-12.11	61634163	Rotation Down	-26	54
2025-04-25	27.27	28.51	-6.82	49380459	Rotation Down	-22	40
2025-04-18	26.45	28.55	-6.11	43463309	Rotation Down	-27	39
2025-04-11	24.84	28.66	-13.69	84631902	Rotation Down	-37	34
2025-04-04	26.51	28.79	-3.42	60431829	Rotation Down	10	10
2025-03-28	31.63	28.87	4.25	45696898	Upward Expansion	63	48
2025-03-21	32.27	28.84	4.53	97302220	Upward Expansion	76	54
2025-03-14	31.19	28.80	1.27	49568488	Upward Expansion	65	50
2025-03-07	29.96	28.79	-5.29	54567806	Rotation Up	62	68
2025-02-28	30.94	28.79	-5.58	56884115	Rotation Up	38	69
2025-02-21	31.66	28.78	-4.64	45258003	Rotation Up	53	74
2025-02-14	32.24	28.77	-4.77	101345887	Rotation Up	54	69
2025-02-07	29.72	28.75	-11.21	83782278	Rotation Up	34	49
2025-01-31	28.61	28.81	-15.12	41085005	Downward Expansion	18	31
2025-01-24	28.97	28.95	-15.34	28130491	Downward Expansion	2	24
2025-01-17	29.19	29.06	-13.71	57670642	Downward Expansion	4	18
2025-01-10	28.82	29.15	-12.68	48974553	Downward Expansion	-22	14
2025-01-03	28.06	29.23	-17.03	27879818	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2024-12-27	26.67	29.34	-22.09	20255027	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2024-12-20	26.34	29.57	-23.10	55056177	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2024-12-13	27.61	29.78	-21.42	51602537	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-12-06	26.43	29.98	-25.70	46220293	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2024-11-29	27.00	30.21	-24.07	35882583	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-11-22	27.37	30.45	-22.71	68015669	Downward Expansion	-65	74
2024-11-15	26.69	30.70	-23.96	55606257	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2024-11-08	26.65	30.94	-26.24	47004978	Downward Expansion	-78	80
2024-11-01	26.48	31.22	-23.84	75705198	Downward Expansion	-85	70
2024-10-25	28.56	31.47	-19.67	28006180	Downward Expansion	-63	45
2024-10-18	28.39	31.63	-21.72	37682841	Downward Expansion	-70	50
2024-10-11	29.09	31.79	-19.91	34252768	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-10-04	29.79	31.93	-17.82	49854737	Downward Expansion	-60	49
2024-09-27	28.47	32.01	-21.83	52202907	Downward Expansion	-72	76
2024-09-20	29.57	32.11	-19.04	42243087	Downward Expansion	-60	69
2024-09-13	28.85	32.16	-20.52	43632976	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2024-09-06	28.90	32.24	-17.79	34260092	Downward Expansion	-79	59
2024-08-30	30.77	32.34	-16.65	22172403	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-08-23	30.90	32.32	-16.52	26622573	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2024-08-16	30.90	32.32	-15.76	26880247	Rotation Down	-62	67
2024-08-09	30.13	32.28	-14.98	37429242	Rotation Down	-46	62
2024-08-02	30.44	32.29	-14.51	55899863	Deceleration	-44	51
2024-07-26	31.48	32.32	-13.80	29737312	Deceleration	-30	22
2024-07-19	31.60	32.30	-14.48	35238780	Deceleration	-20	16
2024-07-12	31.43	32.27	-16.91	41767198	Deceleration	-25	19
2024-07-05	33.09	32.24	-11.98	21654992	Deceleration	-10	22
2024-06-28	32.24	32.16	-12.83	25052420	Deceleration	-20	31
2024-06-21	31.71	32.13	-14.53	22903804	Deceleration	-21	30
2024-06-14	31.16	32.11	-15.75	37109939	Deceleration	-31	32
2024-06-07	31.49	32.11	-13.74	44242211	Deceleration	3	14
2024-05-31	33.55	32.08	-7.26	24202223	Deceleration	33	22
2024-05-24	32.80	32.00	-9.92	35288397	Deceleration	36	22
2024-05-17	33.48	32.02	-8.32	34299760	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-05-10	33.40	32.04	-7.31	49203400	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-05-03	34.16	32.07	-3.73	53548989	Upward Expansion	63	61
2024-04-26	34.84	32.01	-1.50	48161203	Upward Expansion	74	78
2024-04-19	34.00	31.96	-1.71	62014116	Upward Expansion	65	73
2024-04-12	34.82	31.93	-2.82	76235464	Rotation Up	81	83
2024-04-05	34.13	31.88	-6.54	49010558	Rotation Up	51	70
2024-03-29	33.26	31.85	-10.13	26714512	Rotation Up	42	63
2024-03-22	33.37	31.84	-9.90	29528489	Rotation Up	38	58
2024-03-15	33.09	31.76	-8.97	34143860	Balance	37	46
2024-03-08	32.14	31.70	-11.93	40319668	Balance	3	14
2024-03-01	31.46	31.69	-14.53	41571119	Balance	-9	14
2024-02-23	31.23	31.69	-14.86	29162461	Balance	-28	17
2024-02-16	31.29	31.69	-13.82	44791491	Downward Expansion	-31	18
2024-02-09	31.71	31.69	-13.46	66040661	Downward Expansion	-32	21
2024-02-02	30.21	31.64	-16.87	51533490	Downward Expansion	-59	49
2024-01-26	31.07	31.63	-13.53	45587947	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2024-01-19	29.52	31.60	-17.26	41139510	Downward Expansion	-71	52
2024-01-12	30.40	31.60	-14.10	50094226	Deceleration	-33	24
2024-01-05	31.42	31.59	-9.82	30189187	Deceleration	-15	18
2023-12-29	30.87	31.55	-12.96	20057212	Deceleration	-26	25
2023-12-22	30.81	31.53	-13.10	33095013	Rotation Down	-18	22
2023-12-15	30.36	31.51	-13.87	42353584	Rotation Down	-27	32
2023-12-08	30.78	31.52	-10.78	39918918	Rotation Down	-23	38
2023-12-01	31.38	31.51	-8.98	46236167	Deceleration	-18	33
2023-11-24	31.24	31.51	-8.75	26310028	Deceleration	-17	30
2023-11-17	31.05	31.60	-8.51	36545307	Upward Expansion	-19	27
2023-11-10	30.59	31.68	-7.88	48082109	Upward Expansion	5	12
2023-11-03	31.18	31.80	-4.91	66639730	Upward Expansion	26	21
2023-10-27	33.28	31.86	7.33	40959551	Upward Expansion	57	40
2023-10-20	34.11	31.82	7.55	38701492	Upward Expansion	68	47

Price vs TrendAbove+6.7%

Trend directionRising+5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+37.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+19.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.5%

Price momentumPositive+0.7%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.80×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

38 / ±100

-2.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

33 /100

-9.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BP Directional State ↗ BP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance35

Rotation Up55

Upward Expansion53

Deceleration30

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 20%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 19%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	+3.7%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-09-11	Developing	+3.2%
Rotation Down	2026-07-03	2026-07-24	New	+15.8%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-26	Developing	-11.3%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-22	Established	+16.5%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2026-01-30	Developing	+10.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2025-12-19	Developing	-7.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-07	New	+10.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-10	Developing	-2.4%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-08	New	+6.7%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-07-11	Developing	+12.2%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-05-23	Developing	+4.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-03-28	New	+1.4%
Rotation Up	2025-02-07	2025-03-07	Developing	+0.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing29

Stage 2 · Advancing97

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining3

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 81/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.33
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +0.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.2%
Energy regime cohort: 45th percentile11 in cohort

Test BP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.03×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.80×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 45.21rising

Slow Activity USD 43.18rising

Trend Reference USD 43.33+6.7% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 33.72+37.2% close margin

Structural low USD 36.04shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +6.0%

Annualized volatility +32.6%

From structural high -3.1%

From structural low +46.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-1.4%-13.1% to +8.9%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.7%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-5.0%-7.6% to +10.3%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-1.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+9.0%-11.4% to +25.4%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+2.3%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+16.8%-13.2% to +28.1%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+6.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map