Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

DPZ Stage Analysis

Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 5,120.00Tenure NewBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Structural failure

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -77−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 67/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -33.5%MXN 7,699.76 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	5,120.00	5,849.89	-19.96	65	Rotation Down	-77	71
2026-09-18	5,085.89	5,906.50	-19.26	190	Rotation Down	-69	50
2026-09-11	5,258.45	5,951.07	-18.00	36	Rotation Down	-58	35
2026-09-04	5,920.73	5,989.88	-9.93	0	Balance	-3	14
2026-08-28	5,920.73	6,019.51	-11.67	24	Balance	3	30
2026-08-21	5,862.60	6,057.61	-13.74	0	Rotation Up	5	36
2026-08-14	5,863.57	6,099.91	-12.81	11	Rotation Up	3	36
2026-08-07	6,310.00	6,140.56	-10.63	0	Rotation Up	27	45
2026-07-31	6,066.97	6,177.82	-14.85	0	Downward Expansion	-9	23
2026-07-24	5,800.00	6,228.85	-18.86	35	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2026-07-17	5,579.00	6,289.20	-23.19	199	Downward Expansion	-51	53
2026-07-10	5,280.00	6,362.49	-28.08	81	Downward Expansion	-71	66
2026-07-03	5,438.00	6,443.36	-27.48	0	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-06-26	5,200.00	6,514.20	-31.58	920	Downward Expansion	-83	72
2026-06-19	5,455.00	6,597.90	-29.55	0	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-06-12	5,475.12	6,665.94	-30.41	35	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2026-06-05	5,410.66	6,731.65	-30.16	16	Downward Expansion	-70	89
2026-05-29	5,397.05	6,801.56	-33.59	1293	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-05-22	5,483.02	6,868.06	-33.14	1840	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2026-05-15	5,262.10	6,942.22	-36.31	155	Downward Expansion	-92	95
2026-05-08	5,573.59	7,022.78	-35.26	585	Downward Expansion	-90	87
2026-05-01	5,936.37	7,088.86	-29.95	1320	Downward Expansion	-85	71
2026-04-24	6,457.67	7,157.07	-26.27	360	Downward Expansion	-64	71
2026-04-17	6,416.68	7,209.15	-28.17	10	Downward Expansion	-65	79
2026-04-10	6,380.00	7,258.19	-29.67	618	Downward Expansion	-71	77
2026-04-03	6,454.00	7,323.56	-29.46	118	Downward Expansion	-71	59
2026-03-27	6,311.65	7,399.25	-28.81	317	Downward Expansion	-82	55
2026-03-20	6,573.01	7,472.32	-23.84	217	Downward Expansion	-64	41
2026-03-13	7,007.00	7,535.42	-21.48	432	Downward Expansion	-50	43
2026-03-06	7,197.96	7,584.54	-21.99	129	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2026-02-27	6,818.06	7,623.91	-31.07	328	Downward Expansion	-68	85
2026-02-20	6,423.18	7,689.90	-35.94	6	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2026-02-13	6,422.63	7,774.94	-36.78	151	Downward Expansion	-96	98
2026-02-06	6,809.67	7,854.25	-33.13	313	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2026-01-30	7,063.73	7,915.90	-28.15	60	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2026-01-23	7,131.72	7,961.51	-28.82	128	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-01-16	7,082.99	8,002.25	-28.87	100	Downward Expansion	-89	82
2026-01-09	7,427.89	8,055.11	-24.88	264	Downward Expansion	-73	47
2026-01-02	7,597.84	8,096.48	-21.42	26	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2025-12-26	7,610.34	8,138.28	-23.73	233	Downward Expansion	-43	29
2025-12-19	7,777.79	8,189.32	-20.60	284	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-12-12	7,706.22	8,240.26	-22.74	467	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-12-05	7,563.10	8,304.76	-23.16	367	Downward Expansion	-52	46
2025-11-28	7,711.07	8,363.70	-22.55	673	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-11-21	7,496.18	8,426.71	-23.31	193	Downward Expansion	-67	65
2025-11-14	7,446.20	8,492.54	-24.95	114	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2025-11-07	7,508.17	8,555.49	-26.07	247	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2025-10-31	7,391.90	8,614.93	-27.01	371	Downward Expansion	-86	89
2025-10-24	7,707.81	8,676.88	-22.36	274	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2025-10-17	7,679.08	8,737.60	-23.69	318	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2025-10-10	7,555.76	8,786.35	-23.79	237	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-10-03	7,982.93	8,824.65	-21.63	83	Downward Expansion	-74	87
2025-09-26	8,019.91	8,880.06	-21.91	475	Downward Expansion	-79	77
2025-09-19	7,887.98	8,946.19	-22.07	103	Downward Expansion	-89	65
2025-09-12	8,341.01	9,007.43	-18.61	199	Downward Expansion	-76	54
2025-09-05	8,724.73	9,051.30	-13.19	6	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2025-08-29	8,503.89	9,076.90	-12.98	31	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2025-08-22	8,465.77	9,104.75	-14.21	10	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2025-08-15	8,480.79	9,125.22	-12.82	17	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2025-08-08	8,378.98	9,135.53	-13.59	91	Downward Expansion	-65	39
2025-08-01	8,797.68	9,134.84	-7.52	44	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-07-25	8,974.55	9,143.14	-6.34	84	Downward Expansion	-49	41
2025-07-18	8,801.68	9,129.34	-6.34	206	Downward Expansion	-65	66
2025-07-11	8,659.20	9,123.46	-8.15	83	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-07-04	8,432.15	9,143.48	-12.74	101	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2025-06-27	8,354.00	9,177.33	-13.01	260	Rotation Down	-92	96
2025-06-20	8,668.77	9,223.07	-8.29	0	Rotation Down	-53	78
2025-06-13	8,668.77	9,244.38	-10.40	298	Rotation Down	-46	65
2025-06-06	8,851.86	9,247.87	-9.86	194	Deceleration	-31	32
2025-05-30	9,141.60	9,256.54	-6.73	210	Deceleration	6	5
2025-05-23	9,306.15	9,239.78	-5.93	18	Deceleration	43	24
2025-05-16	9,641.14	9,203.24	-1.77	16	Deceleration	59	43
2025-05-09	9,331.42	9,165.84	-2.37	49	Deceleration	37	24
2025-05-02	9,601.17	9,131.77	1.93	11	Deceleration	59	33
2025-04-25	9,471.29	9,083.05	-0.71	197	Deceleration	50	24
2025-04-18	9,334.42	9,045.32	5.02	78	Deceleration	32	17
2025-04-11	9,291.46	8,997.83	7.99	119	Deceleration	30	15
2025-04-04	9,250.50	8,953.23	8.04	200	Deceleration	28	24
2025-03-28	9,529.24	8,914.82	8.18	132	Deceleration	39	24
2025-03-21	9,141.60	8,867.94	5.33	190	Upward Expansion	37	20
2025-03-14	8,705.00	8,836.15	1.11	137	Upward Expansion	26	27
2025-03-07	9,645.11	8,823.91	11.72	330	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-02-28	10,003.80	8,777.67	17.63	66	Upward Expansion	83	89
2025-02-21	9,725.12	8,710.48	12.07	23	Upward Expansion	77	85
2025-02-14	9,657.19	8,646.26	11.25	69	Upward Expansion	75	79
2025-02-07	9,492.63	8,566.87	12.65	140	Upward Expansion	72	62
2025-01-31	9,339.55	8,538.69	15.04	45	Deceleration	61	30
2025-01-24	9,079.84	8,541.36	12.30	650	Deceleration	38	19
2025-01-17	8,790.16	8,552.69	12.49	247	Deceleration	21	21
2025-01-10	8,358.05	8,572.39	8.31	1180	Deceleration	6	22
2025-01-03	9,046.88	8,618.26	19.40	6	Deceleration	34	26
2024-12-27	8,560.42	8,615.71	13.08	50	Upward Expansion	33	20
2024-12-20	8,625.35	8,612.57	14.02	22	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-12-13	9,259.64	8,609.70	18.38	27	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-12-06	9,447.89	8,595.06	22.35	383	Rotation Up	72	83
2024-11-29	9,725.98	8,574.15	30.80	1387	Rotation Up	61	81
2024-11-22	9,308.07	8,518.52	24.77	826	Rotation Up	48	70
2024-11-15	8,773.75	8,476.81	18.52	354	Rotation Up	25	53
2024-11-08	9,111.80	8,456.91	20.63	175	Balance	47	63
2024-11-01	8,638.92	8,426.94	17.88	118	Balance	10	23
2024-10-25	8,209.88	8,412.73	10.23	85	Balance	-28	20
2024-10-18	8,519.08	8,394.25	12.20	37	Balance	-12	19
2024-10-11	8,309.35	8,365.47	11.27	608	Balance	-36	18
2024-10-04	8,139.56	8,334.72	9.06	187	Deceleration	-24	18
2024-09-27	8,339.31	8,316.47	11.81	207	Deceleration	-28	27
2024-09-20	7,909.86	8,291.56	7.63	156	Deceleration	-39	46
2024-09-13	7,953.42	8,274.78	8.90	371	Deceleration	-36	27
2024-09-06	8,098.08	8,253.22	13.25	95	Deceleration	-8	12
2024-08-30	8,123.04	8,226.84	10.14	413	Deceleration	-7	10
2024-08-23	8,187.95	8,199.48	10.30	1233	Deceleration	-15	18
2024-08-16	8,337.73	8,165.65	11.60	50	Deceleration	-18	30
2024-08-09	8,257.84	8,129.59	13.14	32	Deceleration	-23	41
2024-08-02	7,988.24	8,086.50	11.56	225	Deceleration	-20	40
2024-07-26	7,798.52	8,051.97	8.12	351	Rotation Down	-3	29
2024-07-19	7,275.34	8,021.93	-0.41	303	Rotation Down	1	17
2024-07-12	8,647.27	8,009.33	15.86	203	Upward Expansion	64	61
2024-07-05	9,419.62	7,948.84	33.16	0	Upward Expansion	67	78
2024-06-28	9,419.62	7,863.73	34.26	310	Upward Expansion	72	70
2024-06-21	9,381.19	7,776.03	34.25	38	Upward Expansion	80	72
2024-06-14	9,734.22	7,673.79	42.37	276	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-06-07	8,970.40	7,563.88	30.92	46	Upward Expansion	87	75
2024-05-31	8,466.21	7,484.10	19.94	19	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-05-24	8,539.10	7,409.31	21.44	14	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-05-17	8,820.65	7,328.50	21.78	0	Upward Expansion	92	77
2024-05-10	8,820.65	7,238.30	22.47	50	Upward Expansion	96	78
2024-05-03	8,056.89	7,148.11	13.97	0	Upward Expansion	67	88
2024-04-26	8,056.89	7,089.39	13.32	9	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-04-19	8,176.70	7,043.72	19.74	7	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-04-12	8,212.64	6,995.68	19.48	0	Upward Expansion	92	93
2024-04-05	8,212.64	6,946.44	17.02	59	Upward Expansion	95	76
2024-03-29	7,655.54	6,895.53	11.00	0	Upward Expansion	76	69
2024-03-22	7,655.54	6,856.67	12.93	453	Upward Expansion	82	72
2024-03-15	7,386.83	6,813.36	10.14	224	Upward Expansion	68	69
2024-03-08	7,592.12	6,789.44	16.23	0	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-03-01	7,592.12	6,764.54	15.63	428	Upward Expansion	90	94
2024-02-23	7,406.46	6,739.64	11.19	164	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-02-16	7,306.64	6,718.59	9.22	0	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-02-09	7,306.64	6,691.89	8.96	5	Upward Expansion	78	89
2024-02-02	7,302.25	6,670.52	7.28	130	Upward Expansion	82	76
2024-01-26	7,172.89	6,621.55	8.00	281	Upward Expansion	77	81
2024-01-19	7,255.92	6,572.04	12.10	14	Upward Expansion	92	92
2024-01-12	6,965.27	6,512.11	7.46	102	Upward Expansion	74	86
2024-01-05	6,952.29	6,469.09	6.27	8	Upward Expansion	77	89
2023-12-29	6,897.39	6,411.39	3.20	0	Upward Expansion	69	84
2023-12-22	6,897.39	6,359.38	3.02	157	Upward Expansion	74	84
2023-12-15	6,832.51	6,303.05	2.13	19	Upward Expansion	75	80
2023-12-08	6,866.23	6,257.86	7.33	34	Deceleration	81	75
2023-12-01	6,788.62	6,208.22	6.79	14	Deceleration	65	49
2023-11-24	6,314.01	6,164.82	0.83	48	Deceleration	23	25
2023-11-17	6,437.09	6,143.90	2.99	21	Deceleration	22	16
2023-11-10	6,576.81	6,126.02	7.89	387	Deceleration	21	25
2023-11-03	6,222.52	6,103.99	1.93	8	Deceleration	-8	57
2023-10-27	6,114.81	6,093.09	4.76	0	Deceleration	-16	45
2023-10-20	6,114.81	6,085.79	6.14	0	Deceleration	-13	33
2023-10-13	6,114.81	6,076.06	3.62	25	Deceleration	15	21
2023-10-06	6,295.38	6,066.43	5.70	37	Upward Expansion	47	39

Price vs TrendBelow-12.5%

Trend directionFalling-7.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-33.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-20.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+11.6%

Price momentumNegative-18.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.02×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-77 / ±100

-80.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

71 /100

+40.9 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

DPZ Directional State ↗ DPZ Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance28

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion12

Deceleration43

Rotation Down77

Downward Expansion83

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 27%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-11	2026-09-25	New	-2.6%
Balance	2026-08-28	2026-09-04	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-08-07	2026-08-21	New	-7.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-04	2026-07-31	Extended	-28.0%
Rotation Down	2025-06-13	2025-06-27	New	-3.6%
Deceleration	2025-03-28	2025-06-06	Developing	-7.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-21	Developing	-3.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-01-31	Developing	+3.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-12-13	2024-12-27	New	-7.6%
Rotation Up	2024-11-15	2024-12-06	New	+7.7%
Balance	2024-10-11	2024-11-08	Developing	+9.7%
Deceleration	2024-08-02	2024-10-04	Developing	+1.9%
Rotation Down	2024-07-19	2024-07-26	New	+7.2%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-15	2024-07-12	Extended	+26.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing69

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution3

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 84/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.96
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -18.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -16.3%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 57th percentile14 in cohort

Test DPZ trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.27×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.02×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore DPZ Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 5,298.74falling

Slow Activity MXN 5,654.77falling

Trend Reference MXN 5,849.89-12.5% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 7,699.76-33.5% close margin

Structural low MXN 5,055.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.0%

Annualized volatility +31.5%

From structural high -36.2%

From structural low +1.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	-2.7%-16.2% to +14.6%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-5.0%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-3.5%-18.5% to +17.1%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-13.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-12.6%-27.6% to +20.8%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-12.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-6.4%-33.7% to +21.0%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-8.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

DPZ Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map