Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

KWY Stage Analysis

Kingsway Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 9.40Tenure ExtendedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 50/100directional strength

Maturity 92/100lifecycle context

Confidence 93/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.6%USD 10.06 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	9.40	10.21	-24.96	209306	Downward Expansion	-53	50
2026-10-02	9.43	10.25	-24.87	289088	Downward Expansion	-53	48
2026-09-25	9.03	10.32	-29.04	253164	Downward Expansion	-63	43
2026-09-18	9.66	10.42	-24.06	202339	Downward Expansion	-38	19
2026-09-11	9.59	10.52	-25.47	157337	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2026-09-04	10.32	10.60	-21.26	159623	Downward Expansion	-22	18
2026-08-28	10.24	10.70	-22.53	175152	Downward Expansion	-28	21
2026-08-21	10.42	10.81	-21.59	384145	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-08-14	9.94	10.90	-26.91	347619	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2026-08-07	10.24	11.01	-25.33	357033	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2026-07-31	8.91	11.08	-33.34	252362	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2026-07-24	8.70	11.18	-34.89	457777	Downward Expansion	-76	66
2026-07-17	9.65	11.35	-29.06	317152	Downward Expansion	-63	39
2026-07-10	9.96	11.46	-28.66	310585	Downward Expansion	-58	32
2026-07-03	10.50	11.55	-24.59	247562	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2026-06-26	10.50	11.62	-23.95	708799	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2026-06-19	10.55	11.71	-26.05	214480	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2026-06-12	10.43	11.79	-26.93	180077	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2026-06-05	10.12	11.86	-29.33	251994	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-05-29	9.99	11.96	-32.57	391357	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2026-05-22	10.06	12.10	-31.71	328283	Downward Expansion	-67	40
2026-05-15	10.76	12.25	-26.83	228121	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2026-05-08	11.80	12.38	-19.82	312821	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2026-05-01	10.70	12.49	-25.59	431537	Downward Expansion	-44	27
2026-04-24	11.80	12.62	-17.24	235001	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2026-04-17	11.97	12.72	-15.49	589973	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2026-04-10	11.36	12.80	-16.07	554802	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-04-03	10.49	12.90	-19.57	227652	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2026-03-27	9.91	13.02	-21.35	420177	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2026-03-20	10.00	13.16	-22.33	698211	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2026-03-13	10.38	13.30	-20.73	319672	Downward Expansion	-82	77
2026-03-06	11.51	13.42	-13.21	453375	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2026-02-27	12.24	13.49	-9.18	274391	Downward Expansion	-57	47
2026-02-20	12.47	13.52	-7.52	190355	Downward Expansion	-52	31
2026-02-13	12.23	13.59	-7.81	472166	Downward Expansion	-49	22
2026-02-06	13.19	13.66	-1.37	416581	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2026-01-30	13.42	13.71	0.71	248909	Downward Expansion	-31	15
2026-01-23	13.19	13.81	-0.04	290221	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2026-01-16	13.17	13.84	0.04	442224	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2026-01-09	12.56	13.87	-4.42	735603	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2026-01-02	11.80	13.91	-8.38	326280	Downward Expansion	-69	38
2025-12-26	13.90	13.96	7.16	330702	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-12-19	12.80	13.92	0.70	351820	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2025-12-12	12.73	13.89	0.72	558135	Rotation Down	-61	58
2025-12-05	12.69	13.81	0.31	180516	Rotation Down	-36	58
2025-11-28	13.00	13.69	3.58	165258	Rotation Down	-31	52
2025-11-21	12.90	13.55	7.05	286461	Upward Expansion	-26	34
2025-11-14	12.63	13.39	3.26	400287	Upward Expansion	-13	23
2025-11-07	13.02	13.24	6.99	449404	Upward Expansion	6	9
2025-10-31	14.24	13.07	15.55	306702	Upward Expansion	50	30
2025-10-24	14.68	12.85	20.64	276227	Upward Expansion	55	38
2025-10-17	14.58	12.63	22.94	506617	Upward Expansion	58	42
2025-10-10	15.15	12.40	30.80	243803	Upward Expansion	71	59
2025-10-03	14.70	12.14	24.95	225251	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-09-26	14.57	11.90	26.26	269414	Upward Expansion	58	39
2025-09-19	14.43	11.67	25.75	774394	Deceleration	56	39
2025-09-12	14.34	11.45	27.60	259256	Deceleration	55	39
2025-09-05	14.03	11.23	27.92	249054	Deceleration	43	34
2025-08-29	14.35	11.03	32.30	215833	Deceleration	46	34
2025-08-22	14.12	10.82	31.23	651095	Deceleration	39	28
2025-08-15	13.92	10.62	30.82	217379	Deceleration	40	31
2025-08-08	13.52	10.43	29.46	296554	Deceleration	44	35
2025-08-01	13.36	10.24	32.10	261575	Upward Expansion	49	46
2025-07-25	14.57	10.07	41.52	163750	Upward Expansion	64	64
2025-07-18	14.32	9.86	42.37	237616	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-07-11	14.59	9.67	47.30	572669	Upward Expansion	68	67
2025-07-04	16.57	9.46	68.52	388510	Upward Expansion	94	85
2025-06-27	14.00	9.19	46.92	1143374	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-06-20	14.05	9.02	53.99	230104	Upward Expansion	83	94
2025-06-13	13.60	8.85	50.41	251935	Upward Expansion	85	94
2025-06-06	13.33	8.69	48.38	299126	Upward Expansion	91	97
2025-05-30	12.86	8.56	46.85	345522	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-05-23	11.83	8.43	38.63	339010	Rotation Up	96	95
2025-05-16	10.30	8.33	18.43	295223	Rotation Up	61	73
2025-05-09	9.00	8.30	9.26	117198	Rotation Up	34	48
2025-05-02	8.84	8.28	6.92	145656	Downward Expansion	31	28
2025-04-25	8.28	8.26	2.74	151998	Downward Expansion	-6	8
2025-04-18	8.09	8.26	4.72	120501	Downward Expansion	-28	16
2025-04-11	7.89	8.25	0.39	239757	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2025-04-04	7.57	8.25	1.58	421797	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-03-28	8.05	8.26	-1.92	1341356	Downward Expansion	-54	34
2025-03-21	7.88	8.27	-5.61	254442	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-03-14	7.29	8.28	-12.50	150732	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2025-03-07	7.46	8.29	-12.92	116060	Downward Expansion	-74	69
2025-02-28	7.77	8.30	-12.59	174597	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2025-02-21	7.66	8.32	-15.24	79243	Rotation Down	-72	60
2025-02-14	7.87	8.35	-14.78	77142	Rotation Down	-38	41
2025-02-07	8.02	8.37	-12.39	90934	Rotation Down	-32	35
2025-01-31	8.10	8.38	-12.17	185767	Rotation Down	-21	35
2025-01-24	7.99	8.38	-14.73	143929	Rotation Down	-28	44
2025-01-17	8.16	8.39	-11.98	121351	Rotation Down	-22	37
2025-01-10	8.01	8.39	-11.45	156454	Deceleration	-27	29
2025-01-03	8.18	8.39	-11.68	71702	Deceleration	-21	22
2024-12-27	8.38	8.38	-10.41	60998	Deceleration	14	18
2024-12-20	8.47	8.37	-9.28	827792	Deceleration	21	18
2024-12-13	8.36	8.35	-12.53	183129	Deceleration	23	16
2024-12-06	8.51	8.34	-11.94	182766	Upward Expansion	37	21
2024-11-29	8.83	8.32	-8.25	85427	Upward Expansion	55	38
2024-11-22	8.98	8.33	-5.82	286391	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-11-15	8.88	8.32	-5.44	166409	Upward Expansion	61	60
2024-11-08	9.36	8.31	-2.44	242804	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-11-01	8.83	8.27	-3.74	68846	Upward Expansion	62	73
2024-10-25	8.92	8.25	-4.43	146534	Balance	66	71
2024-10-18	9.26	8.23	-1.98	219621	Balance	51	57
2024-10-11	8.62	8.21	-7.94	197538	Balance	22	17
2024-10-04	8.22	8.20	-11.34	166074	Downward Expansion	-28	15
2024-09-27	8.10	8.22	-12.70	159660	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2024-09-20	7.93	8.26	-14.43	200727	Downward Expansion	-50	27
2024-09-13	7.78	8.28	-15.35	206876	Downward Expansion	-58	29
2024-09-06	7.96	8.31	-10.45	104650	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2024-08-30	8.29	8.34	-11.08	190153	Downward Expansion	-41	30
2024-08-23	8.18	8.36	-12.54	230082	Downward Expansion	-48	41
2024-08-16	7.69	8.38	-17.20	334445	Balance	-63	45
2024-08-09	7.80	8.40	-13.26	270062	Balance	-49	20
2024-08-02	8.36	8.41	-7.47	698081	Balance	-10	15
2024-07-26	8.60	8.40	-7.12	340999	Balance	-1	9
2024-07-19	8.30	8.39	-11.38	190864	Downward Expansion	-30	16
2024-07-12	8.37	8.40	-12.74	233089	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2024-07-05	8.03	8.40	-15.77	181798	Downward Expansion	-42	22
2024-06-28	8.24	8.40	-12.32	586529	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-06-21	8.17	8.38	-13.45	255495	Downward Expansion	-53	39
2024-06-14	8.00	8.35	-15.14	522053	Rotation Down	-30	44
2024-06-07	8.00	8.31	-14.26	473818	Rotation Down	-28	47
2024-05-31	8.02	8.29	-13.59	388377	Deceleration	-28	37
2024-05-24	8.00	8.29	-14.68	699134	Deceleration	-15	23
2024-05-17	7.95	8.26	-15.63	156579	Deceleration	0	4
2024-05-10	8.00	8.21	-14.19	171565	Deceleration	13	10
2024-05-03	9.12	8.17	-0.94	201607	Deceleration	52	29
2024-04-26	8.58	8.11	-6.58	121461	Deceleration	19	10
2024-04-19	8.63	8.08	-3.99	172217	Deceleration	18	14
2024-04-12	8.24	8.06	-11.38	132976	Deceleration	7	15
2024-04-05	8.26	8.06	-12.90	183030	Deceleration	21	21
2024-03-29	8.34	8.07	-13.36	125633	Deceleration	31	21
2024-03-22	8.40	8.08	-12.96	146086	Deceleration	39	28
2024-03-15	8.42	8.10	-11.44	214961	Upward Expansion	53	36
2024-03-08	8.80	8.11	-8.08	139533	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-03-01	9.34	8.09	-3.50	106599	Upward Expansion	80	67
2024-02-23	8.54	8.05	-11.53	69478	Upward Expansion	60	60
2024-02-16	8.70	8.04	-9.05	154092	Upward Expansion	63	72
2024-02-09	8.82	8.03	-8.60	85659	Rotation Up	69	73
2024-02-02	8.82	8.01	-7.83	209323	Rotation Up	45	52
2024-01-26	8.86	7.98	-6.36	161686	Rotation Up	48	34
2024-01-19	8.24	7.96	-12.18	64282	Rotation Up	18	19
2024-01-12	8.02	7.96	-13.83	94701	Rotation Up	19	36
2024-01-05	8.18	7.99	-10.82	199770	Rotation Up	22	42
2023-12-29	8.40	8.02	-10.14	118172	Rotation Up	24	38
2023-12-22	8.58	8.03	-8.19	208799	Downward Expansion	29	33
2023-12-15	8.38	8.02	-9.64	435323	Downward Expansion	-4	15
2023-12-08	8.08	8.02	-10.91	166115	Downward Expansion	-21	12
2023-12-01	7.55	8.03	-16.61	199839	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2023-11-24	7.27	8.07	-19.17	259325	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2023-11-17	6.89	8.11	-22.79	331444	Downward Expansion	-66	38
2023-11-10	7.39	8.15	-15.52	493584	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2023-11-03	7.83	8.19	-9.37	464280	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2023-10-27	7.14	8.22	-12.59	596579	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2023-10-20	6.46	8.28	-22.93	1058411	Downward Expansion	-89	93

Price vs TrendBelow-8.0%

Trend directionFalling-7.8%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-25.0%

Relative strength directionImproving+3.7%

Price momentumNegative-17.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.86×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-53 / ±100

-17.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

50 /100

+31.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

KWY Directional State ↗ KWY Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance25

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion13

Deceleration37

Rotation Down60

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 5%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 48%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-10-09	Extended	-26.6%
Rotation Down	2025-11-28	2025-12-12	New	-2.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-21	Developing	-11.5%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-09-19	Developing	+6.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-08-01	Developing	+3.9%
Rotation Up	2025-05-09	2025-05-23	New	+31.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-05-02	Developing	+13.8%
Rotation Down	2025-01-17	2025-02-21	Developing	-6.1%
Deceleration	2024-12-13	2025-01-10	Developing	-4.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-01	2024-12-06	Developing	-3.6%
Balance	2024-10-11	2024-10-25	New	+3.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-23	2024-10-04	Developing	+0.5%
Balance	2024-07-26	2024-08-16	New	-10.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-07-19	Developing	+1.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution22

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: -24.96
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -17.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -32.1%
Financial Services regime cohort: 26th percentile70 in cohort

Test KWY trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.71×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.86×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore KWY Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 9.38falling

Slow Activity USD 9.95falling

Trend Reference USD 10.21-8.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 10.06-6.6% close margin

Structural low USD 8.41shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +8.9%

Annualized volatility +41.2%

From structural high -43.1%

From structural low +11.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	24	+2.9%-15.1% to +42.9%	+58.3%	+41.7%	+1.0%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+4.4%-21.9% to +65.5%	+55.6%	+44.4%	-4.5%	+55.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+6.4%-17.6% to +84.7%	+80.0%	+20.0%	-1.1%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+72.6%+3.2% to +79.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+56.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

KWY Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map