Weekly structural research · TWO · Communication Services

8458 Stage Analysis

1 Production Film Co.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 12.65Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -72−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 73/100directional strength

Maturity 91/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -36.0%TWD 19.76 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	12.65	14.76	-47.22	11100	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2026-10-02	13.35	14.91	-44.68	10122	Downward Expansion	-60	66
2026-09-25	12.80	15.02	-47.56	58094	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2026-09-18	13.05	15.16	-46.84	30500	Downward Expansion	-69	53
2026-09-11	13.75	15.31	-44.07	44918	Downward Expansion	-58	51
2026-09-04	14.00	15.45	-44.88	2000	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2026-08-28	14.00	15.59	-45.94	26031	Downward Expansion	-57	56
2026-08-21	13.20	15.72	-49.06	0	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2026-08-14	13.95	15.91	-48.08	17000	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2026-08-07	14.45	16.08	-45.59	0	Downward Expansion	-52	30
2026-07-31	14.40	16.27	-45.64	0	Downward Expansion	-52	24
2026-07-24	15.00	16.46	-45.31	61474	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2026-07-17	14.90	16.65	-45.56	7005	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2026-07-10	15.65	16.82	-47.28	16271	Downward Expansion	-33	17
2026-07-03	15.20	17.03	-51.28	122447	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2026-06-26	14.10	17.28	-53.43	95581	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2026-06-19	15.00	17.50	-53.31	57137	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-06-12	16.45	17.68	-47.00	202011	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2026-06-05	13.90	17.86	-56.70	46110	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2026-05-29	13.90	18.17	-57.09	31182	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2026-05-22	15.05	18.38	-51.55	38060	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-05-15	14.30	18.51	-53.40	22460	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2026-05-08	15.45	18.74	-50.87	75159	Downward Expansion	-64	76
2026-05-01	13.50	19.00	-54.72	41428	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2026-04-24	14.80	19.24	-51.10	274425	Downward Expansion	-76	67
2026-04-17	14.40	19.51	-50.40	230570	Downward Expansion	-84	54
2026-04-10	18.20	19.80	-35.65	6510	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2026-04-03	17.40	20.00	-33.80	8173	Downward Expansion	-49	35
2026-03-27	18.20	20.22	-32.53	18493	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2026-03-20	17.95	20.43	-34.88	315482	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2026-03-13	17.00	20.64	-38.64	110537	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2026-03-06	16.70	20.90	-40.59	172808	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2026-02-27	17.00	21.16	-43.13	563116	Downward Expansion	-72	66
2026-02-13	17.60	21.42	-38.49	11624	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2026-02-06	17.75	21.63	-34.92	45142	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2026-01-30	18.25	21.82	-34.12	63525	Downward Expansion	-68	70
2026-01-23	18.10	21.96	-34.87	43054	Downward Expansion	-71	67
2026-01-16	18.80	22.08	-31.64	52360	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2026-01-09	19.00	22.15	-28.81	35691	Downward Expansion	-65	55
2026-01-02	20.10	22.19	-22.74	98030	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2025-12-26	20.00	22.15	-21.39	86009	Balance	-56	36
2025-12-19	20.90	22.14	-15.65	66032	Balance	-48	22
2025-12-12	19.95	22.07	-21.13	16266	Balance	-31	17
2025-12-05	22.00	22.06	-12.65	20212	Balance	-4	6
2025-11-28	22.80	21.95	-8.57	94024	Deceleration	-0	5
2025-11-21	20.50	21.81	-14.24	27775	Deceleration	-29	16
2025-11-14	20.50	21.75	-17.44	58313	Deceleration	-31	19
2025-11-07	21.85	21.70	-13.08	44073	Rotation Down	-14	19
2025-10-31	23.10	21.55	-10.25	299534	Rotation Down	-12	30
2025-10-24	20.20	21.46	-19.70	36250	Rotation Down	-30	54
2025-10-17	19.00	21.46	-24.08	41855	Deceleration	-46	45
2025-10-10	21.10	21.50	-16.02	15730	Deceleration	-10	24
2025-10-03	23.20	21.49	-6.09	112144	Deceleration	12	20
2025-09-26	21.00	21.38	-11.12	25250	Deceleration	2	19
2025-09-19	22.80	21.36	-3.64	48264	Deceleration	37	23
2025-09-12	23.00	21.28	-2.51	46861	Deceleration	44	36
2025-09-05	24.20	21.18	6.37	173320	Upward Expansion	49	46
2025-08-29	24.15	21.05	7.16	663055	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-08-22	24.40	20.92	10.28	380079	Upward Expansion	65	63
2025-08-15	24.20	20.79	6.87	280313	Upward Expansion	67	83
2025-08-08	24.80	20.66	10.83	365680	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-08-01	24.60	20.52	12.72	277716	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-07-25	24.70	20.42	13.81	427187	Upward Expansion	84	93
2025-07-18	23.95	20.26	10.64	390861	Upward Expansion	83	89
2025-07-11	23.55	20.14	11.97	1379242	Rotation Up	82	82
2025-07-04	22.25	20.02	6.96	461969	Rotation Up	36	54
2025-06-27	21.95	19.97	5.43	555971	Balance	32	39
2025-06-20	20.85	19.93	2.72	226250	Balance	21	18
2025-06-13	20.00	19.90	-1.20	184780	Downward Expansion	-22	12
2025-06-06	18.95	19.94	-4.45	79506	Downward Expansion	-35	16
2025-05-30	19.70	20.00	0.74	72315	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2025-05-23	18.80	20.07	-5.14	161468	Downward Expansion	-44	25
2025-05-16	19.60	20.14	-2.12	43052	Downward Expansion	-52	29
2025-05-09	18.80	20.16	-2.03	166148	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2025-05-02	18.50	20.22	-3.31	89014	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2025-04-25	18.85	20.28	2.59	466082	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2025-04-18	18.85	20.31	4.89	532994	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2025-04-11	17.55	20.37	-3.16	892449	Downward Expansion	-79	63
2025-04-04	20.20	20.53	1.71	95523	Downward Expansion	-42	17
2025-03-28	20.20	20.64	-0.04	114268	Downward Expansion	-33	15
2025-03-21	20.40	20.74	-2.04	126306	Downward Expansion	-30	12
2025-03-14	20.60	20.81	-0.52	170152	Downward Expansion	-30	13
2025-03-07	19.90	20.87	-7.00	92191	Downward Expansion	-52	24
2025-02-28	20.50	20.94	-6.92	4008	Downward Expansion	-45	20
2025-02-21	20.45	20.94	-10.41	54025	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2025-02-14	20.05	20.94	-10.65	98320	Downward Expansion	-55	34
2025-02-07	20.30	21.03	-11.43	47046	Downward Expansion	-48	26
2025-01-24	20.10	21.09	-13.09	67222	Downward Expansion	-52	24
2025-01-17	20.50	21.16	-10.58	29089	Downward Expansion	-34	16
2025-01-10	20.50	21.18	-10.68	187118	Downward Expansion	-35	15
2025-01-03	20.50	21.06	-10.85	66040	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2024-12-27	21.50	20.98	-8.54	114059	Downward Expansion	-25	15
2024-12-20	20.10	20.90	-12.09	364815	Downward Expansion	-28	35
2024-12-13	20.20	20.86	-14.17	115687	Balance	-25	31
2024-12-06	20.10	20.86	-15.75	234374	Balance	-26	27
2024-11-29	20.50	20.84	-10.90	201253	Balance	-18	15
2024-11-22	20.80	20.86	-12.43	6034	Balance	-14	10
2024-11-15	20.10	20.91	-15.18	172108	Balance	-4	4
2024-11-08	21.00	20.93	-14.87	225107	Balance	8	7
2024-11-01	21.00	20.95	-12.49	81456	Balance	5	4
2024-10-25	21.60	21.02	-12.69	41740	Balance	-3	5
2024-10-18	20.90	21.04	-16.55	300420	Balance	-12	20
2024-10-11	20.25	21.06	-17.74	87944	Balance	-15	25
2024-10-04	20.50	21.15	-15.15	2076	Balance	-11	19
2024-09-27	20.45	21.26	-17.94	362287	Balance	-10	16
2024-09-20	19.80	21.38	-18.90	76640	Balance	-13	11
2024-09-13	20.60	21.50	-14.76	131275	Rotation Up	3	7
2024-09-06	22.30	21.58	-6.88	135354	Rotation Up	27	30
2024-08-30	23.40	21.58	-6.40	490225	Rotation Up	32	39
2024-08-23	23.25	21.54	-6.88	1409071	Balance	21	30
2024-08-16	22.45	21.50	-11.22	163164	Balance	15	14
2024-08-09	22.45	21.49	-8.17	330430	Balance	15	10
2024-08-02	22.00	21.46	-11.24	433307	Balance	-4	9
2024-07-26	20.45	21.43	-19.77	139674	Balance	-11	14
2024-07-19	20.45	21.48	-22.98	47662	Downward Expansion	10	20
2024-07-12	22.95	21.53	-17.97	374703	Downward Expansion	15	26
2024-07-05	22.10	21.47	-20.41	326587	Downward Expansion	-16	15
2024-06-28	22.00	21.38	-19.64	654537	Downward Expansion	-27	18
2024-06-21	21.05	21.30	-24.44	715188	Downward Expansion	-56	43
2024-06-14	17.00	21.26	-37.49	668446	Downward Expansion	-78	77
2024-06-07	18.20	21.36	-31.78	684192	Rotation Down	-72	70
2024-05-31	19.00	21.43	-26.96	810613	Rotation Down	-39	56
2024-05-24	19.10	21.48	-28.38	670661	Rotation Down	-41	53
2024-05-17	20.00	21.53	-24.65	3886475	Rotation Down	-24	33
2024-05-10	19.40	21.59	-25.70	478990	Balance	-30	36
2024-05-03	21.30	21.69	-17.67	2136398	Balance	-13	16
2024-04-26	22.30	21.73	-13.65	2364931	Balance	11	11
2024-04-19	20.60	21.75	-18.50	114295	Balance	-21	18
2024-04-12	21.65	21.80	-20.09	111806	Upward Expansion	19	16
2024-04-05	23.00	21.81	-14.18	35017	Upward Expansion	34	19
2024-03-29	22.35	21.78	-16.98	130180	Upward Expansion	34	16
2024-03-22	21.30	21.73	-21.14	131435	Upward Expansion	31	21
2024-03-15	23.10	21.73	-12.78	62068	Upward Expansion	59	52
2024-03-08	23.95	21.72	-10.71	184589	Upward Expansion	66	60
2024-03-01	24.05	21.69	-6.93	113897	Rotation Up	71	61
2024-02-23	23.25	21.66	-10.21	592306	Rotation Up	38	41
2024-02-16	23.10	21.68	-9.61	85052	Rotation Up	39	41
2024-02-09	22.30	21.67	-10.40	2252	Balance	20	28
2024-02-02	22.10	21.75	-11.29	68365	Balance	17	20
2024-01-26	22.20	21.82	-10.74	42741	Balance	19	18
2024-01-19	22.00	21.90	-10.04	56558	Balance	-2	13
2024-01-12	21.45	21.99	-11.37	19909	Balance	-10	17
2024-01-05	21.30	22.08	-11.83	165558	Downward Expansion	-22	23
2023-12-29	22.00	22.07	-10.85	162961	Downward Expansion	-18	18
2023-12-22	21.70	22.07	-10.25	89370	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2023-12-15	21.30	22.17	-12.10	147892	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2023-12-08	19.50	22.32	-17.95	109228	Downward Expansion	-69	71
2023-12-01	19.30	22.47	-19.02	126227	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2023-11-24	20.10	22.67	-14.86	137458	Downward Expansion	-67	74
2023-11-17	20.00	22.86	-14.77	98685	Downward Expansion	-71	74
2023-11-10	20.20	23.08	-11.17	85715	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2023-11-03	20.50	23.27	-8.88	64349	Downward Expansion	-69	61
2023-10-27	20.50	23.42	-6.80	32768	Downward Expansion	-70	42
2023-10-20	22.00	23.56	-1.91	24485	Downward Expansion	-38	18
2023-10-13	22.20	23.67	-2.95	14016	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2023-10-06	22.60	23.80	0.43	27816	Downward Expansion	-35	18

Price vs TrendBelow-14.3%

Trend directionFalling-9.2%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-36.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-47.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.1%

Price momentumNegative-30.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.58×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-72 / ±100

-14.5 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

73 /100

+22.1 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

8458 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance10

Rotation Up13

Upward Expansion16

Deceleration38

Rotation Down70

Downward Expansion89

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 55%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-10-09	Extended	-37.1%
Balance	2025-12-05	2025-12-26	New	-9.1%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+11.2%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-11-07	New	+8.2%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-17	Developing	-17.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-09-05	Developing	+1.0%
Rotation Up	2025-07-04	2025-07-11	New	+5.8%
Balance	2025-06-20	2025-06-27	New	+5.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-06-13	Established	-0.5%
Balance	2024-09-20	2024-12-13	Established	+2.0%
Rotation Up	2024-08-30	2024-09-13	New	-12.0%
Balance	2024-07-26	2024-08-23	Developing	+13.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-14	2024-07-19	Developing	+20.3%
Rotation Down	2024-05-17	2024-06-07	New	-9.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing59

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution12

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -47.22
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -30.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -69.7%
Communication Services regime cohort: 56th percentile25 in cohort

Test 8458 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.26×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.58×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 8458 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 12.99falling

Slow Activity TWD 14.15falling

Trend Reference TWD 14.76-14.3% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 19.76-36.0% close margin

Structural low TWD 12.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.7%

Annualized volatility +56.4%

From structural high -47.5%

From structural low +0.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	34	-0.2%-22.4% to +47.3%	+47.1%	+52.9%	+0.0%	+82.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-2.2%-19.2% to +68.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-1.7%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+9.2%-22.1% to +60.4%	+57.1%	+42.9%	+4.6%	+14.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+5.2%-36.0% to +55.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-23.0%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

8458 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map