Weekly structural research ยท CBOE ยท Market

BAMO Stage Analysis

Brookstone Opportunities ETF

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 35.02Tenure NewBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 47โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 29/100directional strength
Maturity 52/100lifecycle context
Confidence 77/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +16.0%USD 30.20 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0935.0234.09-4.337265Deceleration4729
2026-10-0234.7733.99-4.0513827Deceleration3925
2026-09-2534.9033.90-4.0336154Deceleration4332
2026-09-1834.6933.83-3.5226766Upward Expansion4638
2026-09-1134.8233.77-3.3325794Upward Expansion6051
2026-09-0435.0533.70-3.5838275Upward Expansion6468
2026-08-2835.0533.63-3.6038499Upward Expansion6780
2026-08-2134.9333.55-3.5918394Upward Expansion6473
2026-08-1435.1833.48-4.3616679Upward Expansion8167
2026-08-0735.1633.40-4.4012789Upward Expansion8563
2026-07-3134.4633.33-3.1518050Upward Expansion6352
2026-07-2434.1933.27-3.0326190Upward Expansion6256
2026-07-1734.4433.22-3.0019488Upward Expansion6473
2026-07-1034.7133.15-3.8738985Upward Expansion7677
2026-07-0334.5433.08-3.1816182Upward Expansion7361
2026-06-2634.1833.01-2.2628045Upward Expansion6356
2026-06-1934.4332.95-4.0324027Upward Expansion7269
2026-06-1234.2132.86-3.9530080Upward Expansion6669
2026-06-0534.1032.78-3.9020095Upward Expansion6778
2026-05-2934.4532.71-5.5114528Upward Expansion8189
2026-05-2234.1932.63-5.0918399Upward Expansion8087
2026-05-1533.9032.56-5.3016891Upward Expansion7685
2026-05-0833.8732.49-5.3841555Upward Expansion8084
2026-05-0133.5532.41-4.3230476Rotation Up7459
2026-04-2433.3632.36-4.1617124Rotation Up6247
2026-04-1733.3232.30-3.9926784Rotation Up3317
2026-04-1032.5032.25-2.3830232Rotation Down-1437
2026-04-0331.8632.21-1.0816582Rotation Down-2861
2026-03-2731.2632.200.1516772Rotation Down-4867
2026-03-2031.5832.20-1.2120114Deceleration-4344
2026-03-1331.9432.19-2.0124578Deceleration-1221
2026-03-0632.2632.16-2.6530437Deceleration2116
2026-02-2732.7132.12-3.40196733Upward Expansion4536
2026-02-2032.8632.05-3.5727069Upward Expansion6044
2026-02-1332.6831.99-3.1516666Upward Expansion5845
2026-02-0632.9631.93-3.6743396Upward Expansion6955
2026-01-3032.7931.85-4.4930991Upward Expansion6356
2026-01-2332.7831.79-4.2816521Upward Expansion6559
2026-01-1632.8631.72-4.5125623Upward Expansion7370
2026-01-0932.9331.63-4.7623176Upward Expansion8270
2026-01-0232.5831.53-4.4323039Upward Expansion6864
2025-12-2632.7331.45-5.1111655Upward Expansion7981
2025-12-1932.4631.36-4.7024329Upward Expansion6972
2025-12-1232.4831.27-4.6533113Upward Expansion7464
2025-12-0532.4631.19-5.3846605Upward Expansion7963
2025-11-2832.4031.08-5.3621254Upward Expansion8261
2025-11-2131.7530.97-3.9444555Upward Expansion6155
2025-11-1431.9730.87-5.2423391Upward Expansion6464
2025-11-0731.9330.73-5.3427424Upward Expansion6666
2025-10-3132.1230.60-6.4624750Upward Expansion8472
2025-10-2432.0630.44-6.1329389Upward Expansion8773
2025-10-1731.7530.33-5.3735848Upward Expansion7368
2025-10-1031.5330.25-4.5324859Upward Expansion6867
2025-10-0331.8430.16-6.0211665Upward Expansion8483
2025-09-2631.6530.08-5.6939926Upward Expansion7682
2025-09-1931.7030.03-5.9229130Upward Expansion8685
2025-09-1231.5629.98-5.3222503Upward Expansion8593
2025-09-0531.3729.95-4.5737091Upward Expansion7791
2025-08-2931.3029.92-4.5822738Upward Expansion8092
2025-08-2231.2929.89-4.7823438Upward Expansion8492
2025-08-1531.1329.87-5.0927300Upward Expansion8090
2025-08-0830.9529.83-4.8521076Upward Expansion7284
2025-08-0130.7429.79-3.3022565Upward Expansion6785
2025-07-2530.9929.76-4.9821090Upward Expansion7890
2025-07-1830.7929.73-4.3130227Upward Expansion7184
2025-07-1130.7429.70-3.9825457Rotation Up7380
2025-07-0430.8529.69-3.9720353Rotation Up5063
2025-06-2730.6229.68-3.1918449Rotation Up3649
2025-06-2030.1229.67-1.5313926Rotation Up2642
2025-06-1330.0929.66-1.8813545Rotation Up2442
2025-06-0630.1429.65-2.1118233Rotation Up2633
2025-05-3030.0329.64-0.9413421Balance2229
2025-05-2329.6629.61-0.5030229Balance-1525
2025-05-1630.1429.60-1.5217172Downward Expansion-819
2025-05-0929.1529.580.2015648Downward Expansion-4124
2025-05-0229.1929.59-0.1414476Downward Expansion-5739
2025-04-2528.6229.590.6919961Downward Expansion-6565
2025-04-1827.8129.612.2916785Downward Expansion-7484
2025-04-1128.1729.652.0845440Rotation Down-6981
2025-04-0427.2029.674.1529810Rotation Down-6783
2025-03-2828.82โ€”โ€”37080Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2129.15โ€”โ€”24125Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1429.01โ€”โ€”35028Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0729.46โ€”โ€”37206Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2830.06โ€”โ€”50115Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2130.28โ€”โ€”29673Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1430.70โ€”โ€”49889Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0730.36โ€”โ€”39656Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3130.40โ€”โ€”26636Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2430.57โ€”โ€”16774Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1730.17โ€”โ€”33809Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1029.61โ€”โ€”21048Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0329.96โ€”โ€”13317Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2730.07โ€”โ€”13473Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2029.95โ€”โ€”59125Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1330.38โ€”โ€”30123Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0630.46โ€”โ€”22047Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2930.21โ€”โ€”13949Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2229.97โ€”โ€”19964Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1529.62โ€”โ€”25466Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0830.06โ€”โ€”28006Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0129.14โ€”โ€”13375Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2529.34โ€”โ€”18360Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1829.53โ€”โ€”20043Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1129.42โ€”โ€”12381Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0429.19โ€”โ€”14403Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2729.16โ€”โ€”11455Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2028.98โ€”โ€”11823Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1328.74โ€”โ€”19735Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0627.95โ€”โ€”13831Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3028.75โ€”โ€”28579Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2328.75โ€”โ€”40809Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1628.51โ€”โ€”23919Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0927.79โ€”โ€”14114Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0227.74โ€”โ€”16964Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2628.16โ€”โ€”19758Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1928.34โ€”โ€”13825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1228.65โ€”โ€”19942Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0528.56โ€”โ€”12818Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2828.18โ€”โ€”12838Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2128.16โ€”โ€”23163Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1428.02โ€”โ€”19501Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0727.72โ€”โ€”25677Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3127.51โ€”โ€”21164Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2427.67โ€”โ€”24754Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1727.67โ€”โ€”33846Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1027.40โ€”โ€”30837Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0327.05โ€”โ€”15587Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2626.89โ€”โ€”23687Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1926.50โ€”โ€”26298Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1226.98โ€”โ€”39934Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-0527.23โ€”โ€”30480Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2927.46โ€”โ€”17767Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2227.41โ€”โ€”25831Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1526.97โ€”โ€”52512Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0827.05โ€”โ€”57099Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0127.19โ€”โ€”25814Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-2327.02โ€”โ€”30456Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-1626.76โ€”โ€”24823Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0926.85โ€”โ€”122060Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0226.68โ€”โ€”25011Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-2626.44โ€”โ€”18439Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1926.30โ€”โ€”12013Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1226.04โ€”โ€”20427Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-0525.76โ€”โ€”10729Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2926.02โ€”โ€”13341Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-2225.95โ€”โ€”16110Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-1525.85โ€”โ€”73068Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-0825.36โ€”โ€”21224Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-0125.34โ€”โ€”38854Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-2425.15โ€”โ€”221413Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-1724.99โ€”โ€”70203Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-1024.67โ€”โ€”549142Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-0324.43โ€”โ€”7973Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-2723.62โ€”โ€”256453Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-2023.97โ€”โ€”3128Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+2.7%
Trend directionRising+2.3%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+16.0%
Fair Value directionMoving away-1.0%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.3%
Relative strength directionWeakening-0.5%
Price momentumPositive+7.8%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.77ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

47 / ยฑ100

-12.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

29 /100

-22.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance40
Rotation Up35
Upward Expansion63
Deceleration88
Rotation Down26
Downward Expansion15

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 ยท 80 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 3%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 66%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 6%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-09-252026-10-09New+0.4%
Upward Expansion2026-05-082026-09-18Established+2.4%
Rotation Up2026-04-172026-05-01New+0.7%
Rotation Down2026-03-272026-04-10New+4.0%
Deceleration2026-03-062026-03-20New-2.1%
Upward Expansion2025-07-182026-02-27Extended+6.2%
Rotation Up2025-06-062025-07-11Developing+2.0%
Balance2025-05-232025-05-30New+1.3%
Downward Expansion2025-04-182025-05-16Developing+8.4%
Rotation Down2025-04-042025-04-11New+3.5%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing26
Stage 2 ยท Advancing69
Stage 3 ยท Distribution75
Stage 4 ยท Declining31

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3B ยท Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
27/100
Current Relative Strength
-4.33
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+7.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-7.1%
Sector regime cohort
87th percentile895 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.31ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.77ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 34.87falling
Slow Activity USD 34.58rising
Trend Reference USD 34.09+2.7% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 30.20+16.0% close margin
Structural low USD 32.46shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +1.1%
Annualized volatility +6.0%
From structural high -0.7%
From structural low +12.4%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term1-1.3%-1.3% to -1.3%+0.0%+0.0%+0.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1+5.7%+5.7% to +5.7%+100.0%+100.0%-4.3%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+8.6%+8.6% to +8.6%+100.0%+100.0%-6.2%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context