Weekly structural research · SHZ · Consumer Cyclical

300577 Stage Analysis

Anhui Korrun Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 18.50Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Emerging rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and stable.

Direction 25−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 20/100directional strength

Maturity 10/100lifecycle context

Confidence 53/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedstable separation

Price acceptance +66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -4.7%CNY 19.42 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	18.50	18.24	0.80	3972600	Rotation Up	25	20
2026-09-25	19.34	18.30	1.55	9770878	Rotation Up	27	37
2026-09-18	19.74	18.35	0.56	13224085	Rotation Up	25	42
2026-09-11	19.36	18.38	-0.59	23265740	Rotation Up	21	28
2026-09-04	19.65	18.43	-0.01	19210303	Balance	28	30
2026-08-28	18.91	18.49	-7.11	3539100	Balance	1	11
2026-08-21	17.35	18.58	-16.12	1669000	Balance	-15	13
2026-08-14	18.70	18.74	-11.93	4615341	Balance	-4	10
2026-08-07	18.41	18.82	-13.63	5280600	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2026-07-31	18.13	18.91	-10.96	9791620	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2026-07-24	16.18	19.01	-22.14	13422600	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2026-07-17	20.36	19.19	-2.37	16927996	Downward Expansion	-13	12
2026-07-10	16.90	19.25	-26.50	2104174	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2026-07-03	16.60	19.44	-31.00	7082039	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2026-06-26	14.79	19.67	-39.89	1849400	Downward Expansion	-81	92
2026-06-19	15.20	19.95	-39.98	7745364	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2026-06-12	15.73	20.29	-34.31	2618000	Downward Expansion	-80	87
2026-06-05	16.34	20.55	-34.09	2065428	Downward Expansion	-78	75
2026-05-29	17.03	20.77	-33.14	16329705	Downward Expansion	-71	39
2026-05-22	18.44	20.99	-28.37	10078856	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2026-05-15	19.88	21.10	-23.33	15700288	Downward Expansion	-23	24
2026-05-08	21.05	21.22	-19.58	14571846	Downward Expansion	-16	19
2026-05-01	20.88	21.28	-18.34	17105833	Downward Expansion	-32	25
2026-04-24	18.42	21.36	-27.63	5525440	Downward Expansion	-64	65
2026-04-17	18.52	21.58	-27.50	4734569	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-04-10	18.86	21.74	-23.69	4029045	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-04-03	17.73	21.89	-23.77	5954897	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2026-03-27	18.04	22.02	-25.35	8374069	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2026-03-20	18.43	22.15	-24.88	4937131	Downward Expansion	-83	79
2026-03-13	19.81	22.25	-22.21	5150360	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2026-03-06	20.14	22.27	-20.83	8312989	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-02-27	20.97	22.26	-19.98	4042200	Downward Expansion	-54	51
2026-02-13	20.55	22.24	-19.87	5481890	Balance	-61	44
2026-02-06	20.83	22.22	-18.26	10732081	Balance	-30	20
2026-01-30	21.65	22.18	-17.42	19877827	Balance	-21	16
2026-01-23	21.56	22.12	-19.87	16528916	Rotation Down	-24	21
2026-01-16	22.02	22.06	-18.00	20906726	Rotation Down	-18	28
2026-01-09	21.29	22.00	-20.51	12664655	Rotation Down	-22	47
2026-01-02	21.04	21.97	-18.54	6057411	Rotation Down	-27	46
2025-12-26	20.95	21.95	-19.99	7710890	Balance	-30	32
2025-12-19	21.76	21.90	-14.51	7825751	Balance	2	13
2025-12-12	22.04	21.82	-14.75	5565671	Balance	20	14
2025-12-05	22.69	21.76	-12.16	8507185	Upward Expansion	47	28
2025-11-28	23.55	21.71	-8.14	5678309	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-11-21	23.13	21.54	-6.99	12642127	Upward Expansion	53	35
2025-11-14	25.51	21.42	-2.78	15939115	Deceleration	74	47
2025-11-07	23.53	21.19	-11.59	7762979	Deceleration	44	25
2025-10-31	22.90	21.00	-14.02	11930086	Deceleration	38	23
2025-10-24	23.42	20.95	-11.70	7804046	Deceleration	46	28
2025-10-17	21.96	20.91	-13.68	11036475	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-10-10	23.27	20.90	-13.45	5579708	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-10-03	23.08	20.87	-15.61	2739822	Upward Expansion	63	68
2025-09-26	23.09	20.81	-13.99	13173394	Upward Expansion	65	76
2025-09-19	25.04	20.78	-6.15	24500614	Upward Expansion	87	87
2025-09-12	23.33	20.69	-11.95	14217094	Rotation Up	75	77
2025-09-05	23.28	20.68	-10.36	17872873	Rotation Up	51	66
2025-08-29	21.89	20.69	-16.81	19183840	Rotation Up	36	51
2025-08-22	21.93	20.77	-13.44	13881241	Balance	29	40
2025-08-15	21.37	20.86	-12.03	18874890	Balance	2	10
2025-08-08	20.46	20.97	-12.15	10605370	Balance	-16	9
2025-08-01	19.87	21.00	-13.75	10325390	Downward Expansion	-36	18
2025-07-25	20.19	21.10	-13.90	13482036	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2025-07-18	20.06	21.21	-12.66	16924606	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2025-07-11	19.64	21.36	-12.92	8858946	Downward Expansion	-49	25
2025-07-04	19.65	21.57	-11.68	16523333	Downward Expansion	-38	18
2025-06-27	20.01	21.72	-9.20	11495181	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2025-06-20	20.11	21.87	-5.64	14512213	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2025-06-13	20.47	21.87	-5.29	10593619	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-06-06	20.51	21.88	-5.84	9536500	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2025-05-30	19.32	21.95	-10.19	9480536	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2025-05-23	19.22	21.99	-11.73	13067803	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-05-16	20.25	22.15	-7.70	32481177	Downward Expansion	-45	29
2025-05-09	21.21	22.21	-2.99	31672092	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-05-02	18.67	22.25	-12.73	11931568	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2025-04-25	19.32	22.42	-9.99	24916402	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-04-18	18.80	22.47	-11.27	42705839	Downward Expansion	-71	72
2025-04-11	17.62	22.49	-17.42	27613230	Downward Expansion	-83	69
2025-04-04	21.45	22.55	-4.63	25025996	Deceleration	-30	28
2025-03-28	22.28	22.47	-3.02	13059601	Deceleration	-16	30
2025-03-21	21.52	22.35	-6.80	16056998	Deceleration	-22	37
2025-03-14	22.42	22.21	-4.91	15113761	Deceleration	-13	22
2025-03-07	21.44	22.04	-7.34	14407300	Deceleration	-0	13
2025-02-28	22.10	21.89	-1.77	13078361	Deceleration	9	11
2025-02-21	22.36	21.73	-3.34	12484733	Deceleration	27	11
2025-02-14	23.08	21.56	2.63	15409696	Deceleration	44	23
2025-02-07	23.35	21.40	6.43	9290303	Deceleration	47	28
2025-01-31	24.54	21.30	17.46	2682441	Deceleration	51	27
2025-01-24	24.66	21.12	17.49	20236413	Deceleration	41	19
2025-01-17	24.40	20.96	18.71	21163451	Deceleration	39	18
2025-01-10	21.56	20.84	9.69	15374500	Upward Expansion	31	16
2025-01-03	22.67	20.80	14.91	19657980	Upward Expansion	51	32
2024-12-27	23.68	20.74	12.31	26397521	Upward Expansion	53	47
2024-12-20	24.48	20.65	17.05	42667145	Upward Expansion	55	53
2024-12-13	26.04	20.53	24.65	31590205	Upward Expansion	70	54
2024-12-06	23.94	20.37	14.86	28619297	Upward Expansion	59	33
2024-11-29	24.50	20.28	20.39	29516036	Upward Expansion	57	30
2024-11-22	20.10	20.13	1.20	6860900	Upward Expansion	31	19
2024-11-15	20.86	20.09	2.44	11021954	Upward Expansion	44	28
2024-11-08	22.55	20.04	7.18	15496313	Upward Expansion	62	41
2024-11-01	20.67	19.86	5.41	16001416	Upward Expansion	60	44
2024-10-25	23.85	19.75	20.27	11905989	Upward Expansion	78	80
2024-10-18	22.22	19.54	15.68	10253210	Upward Expansion	66	73
2024-10-11	22.23	19.23	20.05	16493562	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-10-04	23.79	18.91	23.61	5289762	Upward Expansion	78	74
2024-09-27	20.81	18.51	20.56	9250547	Deceleration	57	40
2024-09-20	19.54	18.22	34.28	3993596	Deceleration	33	29
2024-09-13	19.25	17.98	35.11	5643104	Deceleration	26	20
2024-09-06	19.21	17.71	33.69	7175531	Deceleration	25	14
2024-08-30	18.73	17.42	28.31	12787901	Deceleration	0	14
2024-08-23	17.14	17.22	20.95	2929931	Deceleration	-25	48
2024-08-16	17.42	17.10	21.45	4138687	Deceleration	-5	39
2024-08-09	17.06	16.99	19.22	4202815	Deceleration	-10	29
2024-08-02	17.15	16.89	18.44	6168060	Deceleration	-7	21
2024-07-26	17.42	16.78	20.41	5191223	Deceleration	1	14
2024-07-19	18.27	16.68	22.80	6762630	Deceleration	30	20
2024-07-12	20.12	16.54	36.93	9406620	Deceleration	39	26
2024-07-05	19.22	16.34	34.56	7458748	Deceleration	43	31
2024-06-28	20.05	16.19	39.42	5478296	Upward Expansion	48	40
2024-06-21	20.69	16.02	42.08	4082901	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-06-14	20.44	15.82	39.05	3277217	Upward Expansion	62	53
2024-06-07	20.74	15.63	42.49	9329542	Upward Expansion	65	59
2024-05-31	21.02	15.43	44.23	8892045	Upward Expansion	69	72
2024-05-24	20.83	15.25	43.59	6187917	Upward Expansion	69	79
2024-05-17	21.16	15.05	43.01	14099900	Upward Expansion	76	86
2024-05-10	21.46	14.83	46.21	14015844	Upward Expansion	85	92
2024-05-03	19.76	14.64	38.12	6355634	Upward Expansion	78	88
2024-04-26	19.06	14.50	36.23	8517822	Rotation Up	76	88
2024-04-19	19.40	14.39	42.85	24613424	Rotation Up	58	79
2024-04-12	17.01	14.26	27.45	11361434	Rotation Up	36	65
2024-04-05	17.50	14.22	27.82	14034264	Rotation Up	46	48
2024-03-29	17.37	14.11	29.85	32912171	Rotation Up	30	30
2024-03-22	12.87	14.01	-4.70	5524932	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2024-03-15	12.81	14.07	-5.51	7878056	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-03-08	11.87	14.16	-10.13	6418103	Downward Expansion	-60	50
2024-03-01	12.06	14.30	-9.51	10591828	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2024-02-23	12.41	14.43	-3.24	14972109	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2024-02-09	10.90	14.54	-12.58	17940611	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2024-02-02	10.57	14.70	-7.25	15151275	Downward Expansion	-96	93
2024-01-26	12.84	14.87	3.64	12177812	Downward Expansion	-80	70
2024-01-19	13.51	14.92	9.04	10928840	Downward Expansion	-70	53
2024-01-12	14.01	14.96	10.71	7058080	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2024-01-05	14.01	14.98	9.52	5605756	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2023-12-29	14.06	15.01	5.41	5902931	Downward Expansion	-63	58
2023-12-22	14.21	15.04	10.18	6754688	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2023-12-15	14.15	15.08	8.04	6105028	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2023-12-08	14.25	15.12	7.03	6396061	Balance	-63	45
2023-12-01	14.72	15.15	8.91	7965179	Balance	-49	32
2023-11-24	14.77	15.19	8.12	5665634	Balance	-49	35
2023-11-17	14.93	15.20	8.01	9486341	Balance	-46	29
2023-11-10	14.70	15.19	6.64	10706427	Balance	-51	36
2023-11-03	14.76	15.18	8.71	16713099	Balance	-13	15
2023-10-27	15.39	15.17	14.65	8654925	Balance	1	6
2023-10-20	14.84	15.14	13.35	7101555	Balance	-10	8
2023-10-13	14.68	15.12	7.12	7121609	Balance	18	12
2023-09-29	15.65	15.12	14.06	3285561	Balance	51	44
2023-09-22	15.62	15.11	13.61	6226401	Balance	50	33

Price vs TrendAbove+1.4%

Trend directionFalling-4.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-4.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+0.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+31.8%

Price momentumPositive+4.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

25 / ±100

-3.0 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

20 /100

-10.1 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

300577 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance42

Rotation Up47

Upward Expansion48

Deceleration37

Rotation Down25

Downward Expansion9

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 35%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	-4.5%
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+5.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-27	2026-08-07	Established	-12.2%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-13	New	-5.1%
Rotation Down	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	+2.4%
Balance	2025-12-12	2025-12-26	New	-5.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-12-05	New	-1.9%
Deceleration	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-10-17	Developing	-12.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-29	2025-09-12	New	+6.6%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	+7.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-08-01	Established	+12.8%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-04-04	Developing	-12.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-04	2025-01-10	Established	-9.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing67

Stage 2 · Advancing42

Stage 3 · Distribution30

Stage 4 · Declining58

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 61/100
Current Relative Strength: 0.80
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +4.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +7.9%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 15th percentile47 in cohort

Test 300577 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.46×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 300577 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 19.16rising

Slow Activity CNY 18.24rising

Trend Reference CNY 18.24+1.4% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 19.42-4.7% close margin

Structural low CNY 14.79shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +9.9%

Annualized volatility +58.7%

From structural high -29.2%

From structural low +25.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+5.5%-7.5% to +9.7%	+85.7%	+85.7%	+3.8%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+7.4%-3.2% to +15.4%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+2.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	4	-2.2%-32.1% to +19.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-2.7%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	4	-6.0%-27.8% to +28.2%	+25.0%	+25.0%	+2.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

300577 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map