Weekly structural research · ASX · Consumer Defensive

IEL Stage Analysis

IDP Education Limited

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close AUD 2.20Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^AXJO

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -32−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 82/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -77.7%AUD 9.85 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	2.20	2.51	-40.12	10137786	Downward Expansion	-32	23
2026-10-02	2.00	2.58	-46.49	18550095	Downward Expansion	-54	52
2026-09-25	1.90	2.66	-50.04	36581896	Downward Expansion	-67	72
2026-09-18	1.52	2.76	-61.04	15813332	Downward Expansion	-77	91
2026-09-11	1.51	2.87	-62.17	12245026	Downward Expansion	-83	92
2026-09-04	1.65	2.98	-60.67	1715385	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2026-08-28	1.75	3.10	-59.26	1953261	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2026-08-21	1.69	3.25	-61.13	8532801	Downward Expansion	-84	66
2026-08-14	2.07	3.40	-53.41	3158228	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2026-08-07	2.17	3.53	-52.54	1543684	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-07-31	2.31	3.64	-48.25	1571323	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2026-07-24	2.05	3.76	-53.28	1917737	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2026-07-17	2.20	3.88	-50.36	1013806	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2026-07-10	2.30	4.00	-48.50	1543146	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2026-07-03	2.27	4.09	-49.73	1305933	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2026-06-26	2.15	4.19	-52.34	2756217	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2026-06-19	2.56	4.29	-44.06	18189043	Downward Expansion	-68	73
2026-06-12	2.13	4.36	-53.56	7041958	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2026-06-05	2.00	4.45	-55.89	21799450	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-05-29	2.23	4.54	-51.62	16429742	Downward Expansion	-88	95
2026-05-22	2.67	4.66	-42.94	17380005	Downward Expansion	-79	92
2026-05-15	2.76	4.76	-42.22	15283525	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2026-05-08	2.83	4.88	-43.06	16320201	Downward Expansion	-86	91
2026-05-01	3.28	5.00	-35.70	36348135	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2026-04-24	3.51	5.11	-33.26	8512044	Downward Expansion	-76	60
2026-04-17	3.78	5.19	-30.76	8178702	Downward Expansion	-71	57
2026-04-10	3.99	5.24	-28.48	3484660	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2026-04-03	4.14	5.28	-24.18	6706235	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-03-27	3.86	5.32	-30.21	5139782	Downward Expansion	-77	85
2026-03-20	3.91	5.38	-30.04	5931066	Downward Expansion	-81	85
2026-03-13	4.10	5.40	-29.69	8378148	Downward Expansion	-80	79
2026-03-06	4.64	5.42	-24.16	8798089	Balance	-66	67
2026-02-27	4.63	5.40	-28.46	17998658	Balance	-42	41
2026-02-20	4.93	5.36	-24.16	6329828	Balance	-22	23
2026-02-13	4.81	5.32	-26.58	6756691	Upward Expansion	6	5
2026-02-06	5.39	5.28	-17.53	8525067	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-01-30	6.27	5.23	-7.73	6853888	Upward Expansion	71	61
2026-01-23	6.10	5.16	-11.94	11119882	Upward Expansion	67	58
2026-01-16	5.91	5.08	-16.73	5727531	Upward Expansion	59	53
2026-01-09	5.63	5.00	-20.58	3888485	Upward Expansion	42	37
2026-01-02	5.71	4.93	-21.07	3998672	Deceleration	44	34
2025-12-26	5.81	4.86	-21.53	3597105	Deceleration	45	28
2025-12-19	5.80	4.92	-21.78	8617993	Deceleration	39	20
2025-12-12	4.99	5.00	-34.27	7590571	Deceleration	2	16
2025-12-05	5.07	5.14	-34.00	8475783	Deceleration	-23	27
2025-11-28	5.22	5.29	-33.20	9733636	Deceleration	-24	32
2025-11-21	4.80	5.42	-38.36	6451469	Rotation Up	-37	36
2025-11-14	4.88	5.53	-40.00	8361855	Rotation Up	-15	24
2025-11-07	4.71	5.64	-44.13	12534277	Rotation Up	-9	13
2025-10-31	5.57	5.78	-36.15	10976308	Rotation Up	31	31
2025-10-24	5.80	5.89	-35.86	10746860	Rotation Up	28	42
2025-10-17	6.46	6.01	-29.63	9280158	Rotation Up	37	67
2025-10-10	6.45	6.10	-30.63	8769191	Rotation Up	24	58
2025-10-03	6.56	6.21	-31.02	14517972	Downward Expansion	29	41
2025-09-26	5.67	6.29	-40.23	13971585	Downward Expansion	8	29
2025-09-19	5.36	6.43	-44.65	25201353	Downward Expansion	-5	30
2025-09-12	5.24	6.65	-47.56	11764609	Downward Expansion	-13	33
2025-09-05	5.43	6.88	-46.92	14515333	Downward Expansion	-30	40
2025-08-29	5.53	7.09	-47.71	29858967	Downward Expansion	-39	31
2025-08-22	4.59	7.34	-57.53	12746885	Downward Expansion	-50	48
2025-08-15	4.50	7.61	-59.04	14574857	Downward Expansion	-54	56
2025-08-08	4.16	7.88	-62.31	22562494	Downward Expansion	-56	60
2025-08-01	3.55	8.14	-67.96	13804066	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-07-25	3.64	8.43	-67.84	14063484	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2025-07-18	3.72	8.71	-68.09	11045541	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2025-07-11	3.77	8.96	-67.60	18024251	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2025-07-04	4.06	9.23	-65.79	22777592	Downward Expansion	-69	89
2025-06-27	3.70	9.52	-69.10	18994956	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2025-06-20	3.61	9.81	-70.39	26188390	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-06-13	3.59	10.09	-71.23	40834337	Downward Expansion	-93	97
2025-06-06	3.53	10.40	-72.15	65018938	Downward Expansion	-94	95
2025-05-30	7.68	10.75	-40.06	11780287	Downward Expansion	-78	55
2025-05-23	8.20	10.95	-36.31	10369478	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2025-05-16	9.18	11.12	-29.46	9256376	Downward Expansion	-47	38
2025-05-09	9.48	11.26	-27.00	8707537	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2025-05-02	9.17	11.42	-30.16	9919818	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2025-04-25	8.02	11.61	-37.59	7392456	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2025-04-18	8.35	11.87	-34.55	4524530	Downward Expansion	-78	67
2025-04-11	8.90	12.10	-29.60	12183375	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2025-04-04	8.89	12.32	-30.56	19151620	Downward Expansion	-75	80
2025-03-28	9.28	12.54	-31.13	12353252	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2025-03-21	9.32	12.75	-31.20	18463066	Downward Expansion	-75	90
2025-03-14	9.59	12.91	-28.79	11769768	Downward Expansion	-78	89
2025-03-07	9.07	13.08	-34.86	4973122	Downward Expansion	-90	89
2025-02-28	9.80	13.25	-32.47	9265959	Downward Expansion	-87	75
2025-02-21	12.06	13.40	-19.15	5231310	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-02-14	12.01	13.45	-22.64	3394260	Downward Expansion	-45	25
2025-02-07	11.89	13.50	-23.99	3049202	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2025-01-31	13.01	13.57	-17.90	1872102	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2025-01-24	12.54	13.60	-20.42	2445971	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2025-01-17	12.59	13.67	-19.98	3368177	Downward Expansion	-45	33
2025-01-10	12.11	13.72	-23.79	2849510	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2025-01-03	12.23	13.81	-23.55	1789109	Downward Expansion	-63	60
2024-12-27	11.98	13.90	-25.99	1578506	Downward Expansion	-65	67
2024-12-20	11.20	14.02	-29.87	5413335	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2024-12-13	11.94	14.17	-28.19	4366969	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2024-12-06	12.57	14.29	-26.31	3780522	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2024-11-29	12.46	14.40	-28.16	5427395	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2024-11-22	12.02	14.51	-31.37	5308149	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2024-11-15	13.07	14.63	-25.54	4301127	Downward Expansion	-68	64
2024-11-08	13.83	14.72	-22.46	2200905	Downward Expansion	-58	61
2024-11-01	13.64	14.79	-22.92	3372349	Downward Expansion	-57	57
2024-10-25	13.27	14.89	-26.82	3045882	Balance	-65	44
2024-10-18	13.42	15.03	-27.56	8411967	Balance	-51	29
2024-10-11	14.50	15.18	-21.98	2748588	Balance	-27	13
2024-10-04	14.81	15.31	-20.54	3037215	Balance	-4	12
2024-09-27	15.78	15.43	-16.77	2430598	Balance	25	35
2024-09-20	15.11	15.52	-20.89	4275549	Balance	-2	20
2024-09-13	15.64	15.61	-17.80	2948940	Balance	4	19
2024-09-06	15.41	15.74	-19.02	3193128	Balance	-1	14
2024-08-30	15.69	15.84	-19.22	8951870	Downward Expansion	-14	14
2024-08-23	14.20	15.94	-27.06	2218128	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2024-08-16	14.56	16.09	-25.67	4488295	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-08-09	14.21	16.27	-26.37	12372352	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2024-08-02	14.22	16.46	-28.50	6320892	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2024-07-26	13.49	16.63	-32.71	4354842	Downward Expansion	-69	59
2024-07-19	13.68	16.82	-32.91	6534085	Downward Expansion	-68	55
2024-07-12	13.79	17.01	-32.93	4554614	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2024-07-05	14.02	17.19	-31.21	3058351	Downward Expansion	-70	60
2024-06-28	14.69	17.47	-27.98	6551859	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-06-21	14.06	17.71	-31.83	10863611	Downward Expansion	-75	56
2024-06-14	14.94	17.95	-27.46	7158648	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2024-06-07	14.86	18.21	-29.71	16197201	Downward Expansion	-69	49
2024-05-31	15.47	18.46	-26.04	31663381	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2024-05-24	15.82	18.69	-25.05	10571277	Downward Expansion	-61	49
2024-05-17	15.56	18.85	-27.81	13743530	Downward Expansion	-66	56
2024-05-10	15.75	19.02	-27.11	8582538	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-05-03	15.90	19.21	-26.04	7113201	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-04-26	15.44	19.36	-28.37	7829882	Downward Expansion	-76	83
2024-04-19	15.94	19.53	-26.75	12404841	Downward Expansion	-71	76
2024-04-12	15.73	19.70	-30.50	9609947	Downward Expansion	-78	74
2024-04-05	16.71	19.96	-26.78	6885786	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2024-03-29	17.38	20.18	-25.74	8348490	Downward Expansion	-66	44
2024-03-22	17.93	20.40	-22.83	7206951	Downward Expansion	-60	40
2024-03-15	18.48	20.62	-20.08	10671745	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2024-03-08	18.52	20.72	-22.36	8644493	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2024-03-01	18.39	20.85	-22.56	10459427	Downward Expansion	-60	42
2024-02-23	17.75	21.00	-24.84	23463387	Downward Expansion	-70	48
2024-02-16	19.63	21.19	-17.76	15644644	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-02-09	18.49	21.26	-23.04	8438965	Downward Expansion	-67	52
2024-02-02	18.48	21.36	-24.38	9097299	Downward Expansion	-70	48
2024-01-26	18.82	21.41	-22.26	10110833	Downward Expansion	-68	45
2024-01-19	20.09	21.48	-16.17	7327411	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2024-01-12	19.79	21.50	-18.81	8268946	Downward Expansion	-60	69
2024-01-05	19.35	21.61	-21.12	4877900	Downward Expansion	-63	73
2023-12-29	19.16	21.72	-23.47	2590245	Downward Expansion	-70	72
2023-12-22	19.36	21.77	-22.30	9595308	Balance	-67	62
2023-12-15	19.28	21.94	-22.45	14031001	Balance	-66	42
2023-12-08	22.21	22.15	-8.16	4227579	Balance	-18	10
2023-12-01	21.87	22.28	-8.27	6229068	Balance	-22	15
2023-11-24	21.37	22.39	-10.29	3528042	Balance	-28	20
2023-11-17	22.76	22.56	-4.98	2665685	Balance	-14	14
2023-11-10	22.49	22.70	-5.52	3761273	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2023-11-03	22.20	22.82	-7.16	4239346	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2023-10-27	20.83	22.94	-11.34	6186526	Downward Expansion	-57	52
2023-10-20	20.57	23.11	-13.85	3167268	Downward Expansion	-61	65

Price vs TrendBelow-12.5%

Trend directionFalling-31.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-77.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+2.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-40.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+8.4%

Price momentumNegative-44.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led2.81×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-32 / ±100

+51.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

23 /100

-69.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

IEL Directional State ↗ IEL Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance32

Rotation Up31

Upward Expansion24

Deceleration44

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion63

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 4%Deceleration 4%Downward Expansion 77%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-10-09	Extended	-46.3%
Balance	2026-02-20	2026-03-06	New	-6.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-02-13	Developing	-14.6%
Deceleration	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	+9.3%
Rotation Up	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	-25.7%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-01	2025-10-03	Extended	-51.9%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-10-25	Developing	-13.9%
Downward Expansion	2023-12-29	2024-08-30	Extended	-18.1%
Balance	2023-11-17	2023-12-22	Developing	-15.0%
Downward Expansion	2023-10-06	2023-11-10	Developing	+10.7%
Balance	2023-09-01	2023-09-29	Developing	-13.8%
Downward Expansion	2023-05-26	2023-08-25	Established	+0.6%
Rotation Down	2023-03-31	2023-05-19	Developing	-1.1%
Upward Expansion	2023-02-03	2023-03-24	Developing	-17.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing70

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution1

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^AXJO

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 71/100
Current Relative Strength: -40.12
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -44.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -42.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 21th percentile24 in cohort

Test IEL trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.10×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume2.81×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution4 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore IEL Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity AUD 1.95rising

Slow Activity AUD 2.13falling

Trend Reference AUD 2.51-12.5% close margin

Current Fair Value AUD 9.85-77.7% close margin

Structural low AUD 1.49shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +10.3%

Annualized volatility +74.9%

From structural high -67.1%

From structural low +47.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^AXJO	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	-1.8%-60.9% to +30.5%	+46.3%	+53.7%	-1.3%	+87.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-13.4%-61.3% to +56.8%	+30.8%	+69.2%	-13.4%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-18.4%-69.1% to +57.0%	+14.3%	+85.7%	-24.8%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-41.8%-67.4% to -1.4%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-49.9%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

IEL Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map