Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

HD Stage Analysis

The Home Depot Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 290.74Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -69−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 81/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -16.6%USD 348.65 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	290.74	323.34	-22.28	28434951	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2026-10-02	282.85	324.86	-24.10	29776308	Downward Expansion	-82	84
2026-09-25	293.20	327.19	-22.16	28612496	Downward Expansion	-79	78
2026-09-18	299.98	329.92	-20.08	24758086	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-09-11	308.74	332.48	-18.54	17256305	Balance	-57	46
2026-09-04	321.05	335.03	-16.68	16301265	Balance	-37	23
2026-08-28	327.79	336.98	-15.56	16846286	Balance	-25	11
2026-08-21	333.17	338.35	-14.40	24604807	Balance	2	4
2026-08-14	336.40	339.85	-15.37	15153497	Balance	-4	4
2026-08-07	353.03	341.12	-11.64	16530752	Balance	-5	7
2026-07-31	329.55	341.66	-15.07	23200940	Balance	-23	11
2026-07-24	332.98	342.03	-13.73	18544063	Rotation Up	-3	17
2026-07-17	338.87	342.42	-13.13	18655153	Rotation Up	19	29
2026-07-10	343.30	342.46	-13.69	17775091	Rotation Up	19	31
2026-07-03	357.90	342.83	-9.22	17522931	Downward Expansion	33	36
2026-06-26	348.86	342.54	-9.94	30635846	Downward Expansion	-5	15
2026-06-19	334.28	342.56	-16.09	26516310	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2026-06-12	328.39	342.62	-17.20	22386571	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-06-05	310.78	343.50	-21.59	21687415	Downward Expansion	-60	63
2026-05-29	314.77	345.25	-23.07	26758211	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2026-05-22	310.73	347.14	-23.49	28298673	Downward Expansion	-63	71
2026-05-15	295.29	349.40	-27.16	26063353	Downward Expansion	-82	73
2026-05-08	315.08	352.35	-22.73	27650516	Downward Expansion	-69	43
2026-05-01	321.46	354.10	-19.87	19895357	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2026-04-24	333.38	356.28	-16.65	15166062	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2026-04-17	346.63	358.55	-13.37	17776020	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2026-04-10	334.67	360.56	-13.10	17931018	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2026-04-03	319.08	363.19	-14.61	16934265	Downward Expansion	-71	81
2026-03-27	319.10	366.23	-12.26	22196260	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2026-03-20	318.21	368.79	-14.83	23380826	Balance	-79	65
2026-03-13	336.35	371.58	-11.94	17836061	Balance	-56	35
2026-03-06	352.66	373.33	-9.37	21750696	Rotation Up	-35	17
2026-02-27	375.13	374.16	-5.86	23917694	Rotation Up	17	26
2026-02-20	376.63	373.78	-6.27	13382983	Rotation Up	19	36
2026-02-13	385.30	373.40	-3.28	16608186	Rotation Up	29	36
2026-02-06	379.49	372.22	-6.23	24387273	Balance	23	30
2026-01-30	369.09	371.58	-9.31	19280227	Balance	-6	23
2026-01-23	378.13	371.34	-7.12	18482985	Downward Expansion	-9	19
2026-01-16	374.58	370.70	-8.65	22304608	Downward Expansion	-22	17
2026-01-09	369.14	369.55	-10.65	26138352	Downward Expansion	-39	30
2026-01-02	340.74	368.76	-16.54	12264629	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2025-12-26	344.64	369.32	-16.83	10552560	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2025-12-19	339.93	369.71	-17.18	29391045	Rotation Down	-70	51
2025-12-12	354.37	370.07	-13.96	28822727	Rotation Down	-36	53
2025-12-05	349.40	370.54	-16.05	23221617	Rotation Down	-39	66
2025-11-28	349.39	370.59	-16.25	19086462	Rotation Down	-32	64
2025-11-21	336.07	370.70	-16.94	34357347	Rotation Down	-51	71
2025-11-14	354.71	371.03	-14.48	15489830	Deceleration	-41	49
2025-11-07	363.28	370.65	-12.69	16572357	Deceleration	-12	25
2025-10-31	371.58	369.96	-12.46	14318815	Deceleration	-2	21
2025-10-24	378.52	368.98	-10.52	13119116	Deceleration	20	27
2025-10-17	383.63	367.92	-7.86	16457440	Deceleration	29	27
2025-10-10	367.82	366.45	-10.42	14990853	Upward Expansion	24	20
2025-10-03	386.72	365.52	-8.45	15924161	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-09-26	401.44	364.70	-4.23	13345430	Upward Expansion	65	71
2025-09-19	406.92	364.02	-3.40	23779008	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-09-12	413.77	362.80	-0.71	20477043	Upward Expansion	80	90
2025-09-05	410.11	362.13	-0.12	16024017	Upward Expansion	83	89
2025-08-29	395.97	361.51	-3.27	15510600	Rotation Up	74	84
2025-08-22	401.83	361.51	-1.93	24459312	Rotation Up	57	74
2025-08-15	388.78	361.39	-4.90	18146766	Rotation Up	50	62
2025-08-08	377.56	361.55	-6.81	13348913	Balance	41	42
2025-08-01	363.74	361.45	-8.09	16204798	Balance	-1	13
2025-07-25	365.38	361.80	-10.06	15146685	Balance	0	10
2025-07-18	349.86	362.20	-12.73	17101031	Balance	-19	13
2025-07-11	360.25	363.12	-9.79	16121392	Balance	-9	7
2025-07-04	361.81	364.47	-9.75	15339071	Balance	-13	11
2025-06-27	358.95	366.23	-8.95	20803611	Downward Expansion	-33	21
2025-06-20	340.34	368.01	-10.74	20429425	Downward Expansion	-58	34
2025-06-13	345.25	370.05	-9.75	15714548	Downward Expansion	-44	23
2025-06-06	357.58	371.55	-6.96	12970543	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2025-05-30	356.30	372.56	-5.74	14130268	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2025-05-23	350.90	373.20	-5.54	20754238	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2025-05-16	368.38	374.21	-3.30	15105914	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2025-05-09	350.90	375.16	-3.02	12527372	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-05-02	352.65	376.59	-2.99	14484829	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2025-04-25	345.93	377.85	-2.11	15661669	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-04-18	343.50	379.05	1.67	11595184	Downward Expansion	-63	51
2025-04-11	342.34	380.02	-0.09	27762699	Downward Expansion	-66	69
2025-04-04	342.37	380.72	5.59	23428586	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2025-03-28	346.49	380.78	-2.78	15981342	Downward Expansion	-69	81
2025-03-21	339.71	380.98	-6.30	21276524	Rotation Down	-81	84
2025-03-14	339.87	381.55	-6.10	23657058	Rotation Down	-56	67
2025-03-07	362.13	381.69	-2.50	19358943	Deceleration	-40	38
2025-02-28	381.16	380.66	-0.73	23506544	Deceleration	9	11
2025-02-21	370.30	379.21	-4.69	15764541	Deceleration	-1	2
2025-02-14	393.56	378.26	-0.56	13519426	Deceleration	38	27
2025-02-07	391.51	376.65	0.27	11813504	Deceleration	37	29
2025-01-31	395.94	374.99	1.12	14746153	Deceleration	39	25
2025-01-24	398.36	372.39	0.62	13359831	Deceleration	28	14
2025-01-17	393.44	370.01	0.99	17037777	Deceleration	16	18
2025-01-10	374.71	368.17	-1.14	13720874	Deceleration	1	22
2025-01-03	374.03	366.66	-3.42	9275261	Deceleration	15	21
2024-12-27	377.56	364.55	-3.19	7090535	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-12-20	377.31	362.58	-2.79	23454473	Upward Expansion	56	43
2024-12-13	400.75	360.23	1.17	17315524	Upward Expansion	66	71
2024-12-06	414.58	357.70	3.89	12985435	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-11-29	412.42	354.78	4.28	11624997	Upward Expansion	81	66
2024-11-22	401.53	351.81	2.79	20021013	Upward Expansion	76	55
2024-11-15	390.23	348.97	1.65	19389346	Upward Expansion	57	44
2024-11-08	388.05	346.51	-0.95	20092502	Upward Expansion	66	51
2024-11-01	375.33	344.36	0.42	15001428	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-10-25	381.37	343.11	0.67	15837095	Upward Expansion	67	81
2024-10-18	396.75	342.47	3.81	12661296	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-10-11	393.79	341.52	4.04	16347724	Upward Expansion	79	90
2024-10-04	390.40	340.13	4.45	17662105	Upward Expansion	82	87
2024-09-27	381.96	338.86	2.58	14649440	Upward Expansion	81	80
2024-09-20	372.72	338.16	0.67	19712830	Rotation Up	77	71
2024-09-13	363.28	337.36	-0.53	13355679	Rotation Up	44	55
2024-09-06	344.22	336.59	-2.08	11823868	Rotation Up	27	38
2024-08-30	352.30	336.47	-4.10	12366024	Rotation Up	34	36
2024-08-23	356.89	335.90	-2.79	19205295	Balance	42	30
2024-08-16	344.03	335.11	-5.12	21917742	Balance	21	17
2024-08-09	331.28	334.98	-5.22	15994143	Balance	12	23
2024-08-02	337.73	335.06	-3.57	15980938	Balance	15	27
2024-07-26	341.61	334.52	-4.68	15829825	Balance	19	26
2024-07-19	345.27	333.97	-4.60	14955158	Balance	23	20
2024-07-12	341.86	333.37	-7.50	17220263	Balance	-8	14
2024-07-05	317.92	333.04	-13.28	10809999	Balance	-38	24
2024-06-28	327.10	332.65	-9.26	21881431	Deceleration	-30	19
2024-06-21	338.08	331.75	-6.42	16593136	Deceleration	-24	14
2024-06-14	329.57	330.13	-8.27	16705038	Deceleration	-26	26
2024-06-07	310.75	328.69	-12.18	15995181	Deceleration	-36	38
2024-05-31	318.20	327.39	-9.12	15793637	Deceleration	-28	29
2024-05-24	306.82	325.96	-12.83	18294919	Rotation Down	-37	33
2024-05-17	324.85	324.32	-7.89	19901629	Rotation Down	-19	33
2024-05-10	326.95	322.39	-5.86	16635499	Deceleration	-21	34
2024-05-03	323.57	320.56	-5.18	16340216	Deceleration	-3	31
2024-04-26	316.24	318.87	-6.83	17092380	Deceleration	-11	34
2024-04-19	316.50	317.72	-4.43	19802626	Deceleration	-0	20
2024-04-12	323.59	316.66	-5.40	19606493	Upward Expansion	25	21
2024-04-05	337.74	315.86	-2.78	21211623	Upward Expansion	60	48
2024-03-29	362.02	314.81	3.27	12049326	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-03-22	368.33	313.09	5.50	16823202	Upward Expansion	83	80
2024-03-15	352.24	310.78	3.26	22360703	Upward Expansion	67	74
2024-03-08	352.35	309.15	3.24	12658375	Upward Expansion	70	71
2024-03-01	360.68	307.62	5.43	14680063	Upward Expansion	87	77
2024-02-23	348.96	305.68	3.07	14894705	Upward Expansion	80	67
2024-02-16	339.94	304.27	2.06	15787517	Upward Expansion	70	64
2024-02-09	340.69	302.83	1.82	12883708	Upward Expansion	73	71
2024-02-02	335.14	301.25	1.43	14583289	Upward Expansion	68	72
2024-01-26	333.33	299.42	2.12	17578571	Upward Expansion	67	68
2024-01-19	340.00	297.90	5.12	12060862	Upward Expansion	82	84
2024-01-12	333.71	295.85	4.33	14670411	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-01-05	321.73	294.00	2.26	12446578	Upward Expansion	68	87
2023-12-29	325.12	292.45	1.52	17426944	Upward Expansion	73	89
2023-12-22	327.03	290.75	2.24	17156646	Upward Expansion	84	90
2023-12-15	332.11	288.82	4.54	31044700	Rotation Up	82	82
2023-12-08	306.28	286.67	-1.48	15752759	Rotation Up	48	44
2023-12-01	299.86	285.36	-3.57	17300996	Rotation Down	28	30
2023-11-24	289.54	284.24	-6.36	10570456	Rotation Down	4	14
2023-11-17	286.35	283.80	-6.76	22410097	Rotation Down	-14	22
2023-11-10	271.73	283.45	-9.71	15687342	Rotation Down	-36	42
2023-11-03	275.48	283.34	-7.51	15557799	Rotation Down	-38	64
2023-10-27	257.63	283.00	-8.61	14274544	Rotation Down	-50	77
2023-10-20	266.91	283.46	-7.89	13340880	Rotation Down	-42	69

Price vs TrendBelow-10.1%

Trend directionFalling-5.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-16.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-15.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.3%

Relative strength directionWeakening-8.6%

Price momentumNegative-13.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.19×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-69 / ±100

-11.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

81 /100

+34.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HD Directional State ↗ HD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance9

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion19

Deceleration37

Rotation Down82

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 16%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-10-09	New	-3.1%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-09-11	Developing	-6.3%
Rotation Up	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	-3.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-07-03	Established	+12.2%
Balance	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	New	-5.4%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	-8.5%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+2.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-01-23	Developing	+9.7%
Rotation Down	2025-11-21	2025-12-19	Developing	+1.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-17	2025-11-14	Developing	-7.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-10	Developing	-10.3%
Rotation Up	2025-08-15	2025-08-29	New	+1.9%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	+4.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-03-28	2025-06-27	Established	+3.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing49

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution27

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -22.28
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -13.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -28.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 66th percentile99 in cohort

Test HD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.29×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.19×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 291.56falling

Slow Activity USD 320.66falling

Trend Reference USD 323.34-10.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 348.65-16.6% close margin

Structural low USD 277.15shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.1%

Annualized volatility +25.2%

From structural high -25.8%

From structural low +4.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+2.8%-7.7% to +9.7%	+68.4%	+31.6%	-0.4%	+68.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+3.6%-16.0% to +15.1%	+55.6%	+44.4%	+3.9%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+3.5%-7.4% to +15.9%	+80.0%	+20.0%	-3.9%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+0.3%-7.9% to +21.5%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-4.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map