Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Defensive

UTZ Stage Analysis

Utz Brands Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 14.30Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 67/100directional strength

Maturity 74/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +7.9%USD 13.25 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	14.30	10.14	29.90	13769655	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-10-02	14.27	9.92	31.11	9686699	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-09-25	14.24	9.73	30.55	4845865	Upward Expansion	69	67
2026-09-18	14.18	9.56	31.67	8419361	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-09-11	14.22	9.41	31.83	6204308	Upward Expansion	70	69
2026-09-04	14.15	9.24	30.02	9316726	Upward Expansion	69	87
2026-08-28	14.14	9.13	29.57	15351666	Upward Expansion	70	89
2026-08-21	13.98	9.01	28.34	8684614	Upward Expansion	66	88
2026-08-14	14.17	8.89	27.94	10102749	Upward Expansion	77	92
2026-08-07	14.11	8.76	27.31	12384392	Rotation Up	89	96
2026-07-31	14.12	8.61	31.58	19700964	Rotation Up	66	87
2026-07-24	14.10	8.48	32.33	97398382	Rotation Up	52	67
2026-07-17	7.21	8.36	-33.02	11609067	Downward Expansion	-28	20
2026-07-10	7.83	8.46	-29.55	7086006	Downward Expansion	-19	17
2026-07-03	8.27	8.53	-25.69	8540709	Downward Expansion	-23	14
2026-06-26	7.71	8.57	-30.10	10793078	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2026-06-19	6.99	8.63	-38.91	6900476	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2026-06-12	7.07	8.71	-38.52	7513146	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2026-06-05	7.01	8.82	-39.69	8266884	Downward Expansion	-69	56
2026-05-29	7.25	8.92	-40.07	6863599	Downward Expansion	-63	49
2026-05-22	7.70	9.02	-36.42	11683053	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2026-05-15	6.98	9.17	-42.61	12944045	Downward Expansion	-73	56
2026-05-08	7.43	9.34	-39.59	11330196	Downward Expansion	-52	42
2026-05-01	7.70	9.49	-36.80	8080152	Downward Expansion	-58	47
2026-04-24	7.69	9.65	-37.01	8722516	Downward Expansion	-61	52
2026-04-17	7.57	9.79	-38.57	9672098	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-04-10	7.49	9.96	-37.54	7599049	Downward Expansion	-67	73
2026-04-03	7.65	10.13	-34.86	8539168	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-03-27	7.35	10.33	-36.32	10003980	Downward Expansion	-77	89
2026-03-20	7.48	10.52	-37.53	8911061	Downward Expansion	-82	88
2026-03-13	7.50	10.71	-39.28	10772061	Downward Expansion	-85	85
2026-03-06	8.50	10.88	-33.02	8153190	Downward Expansion	-76	73
2026-02-27	9.21	11.02	-29.64	7509837	Downward Expansion	-64	45
2026-02-20	9.62	11.16	-27.56	10131954	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2026-02-13	9.27	11.30	-30.03	11802052	Downward Expansion	-64	30
2026-02-06	10.89	11.45	-19.52	9692622	Downward Expansion	-15	13
2026-01-30	10.45	11.54	-23.35	6555437	Downward Expansion	-37	25
2026-01-23	10.33	11.62	-24.42	5321488	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2026-01-16	10.20	11.68	-26.08	9446227	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2026-01-09	9.86	11.77	-29.43	6998346	Downward Expansion	-48	35
2026-01-02	10.20	11.87	-26.38	4132582	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-12-26	10.37	11.98	-26.64	4040455	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-12-19	10.19	12.06	-27.67	10681674	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2025-12-12	10.08	12.12	-29.04	7577865	Downward Expansion	-67	70
2025-12-05	9.44	12.21	-34.77	8459519	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2025-11-28	9.55	12.30	-34.61	6095952	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-11-21	9.39	12.37	-34.16	6498700	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2025-11-14	10.37	12.49	-29.58	7232314	Downward Expansion	-73	85
2025-11-07	9.77	12.59	-34.25	11385640	Downward Expansion	-89	88
2025-10-31	10.38	12.69	-32.10	11049490	Downward Expansion	-86	75
2025-10-24	12.29	12.80	-20.01	2693783	Downward Expansion	-56	47
2025-10-17	12.06	12.85	-20.69	3678010	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2025-10-10	11.98	12.89	-20.57	3129638	Downward Expansion	-62	60
2025-10-03	12.27	12.92	-21.27	3832686	Balance	-45	46
2025-09-26	11.95	12.97	-23.19	5031419	Balance	-51	38
2025-09-19	12.59	13.01	-20.13	4685031	Balance	-21	9
2025-09-12	12.70	13.05	-19.15	3888209	Balance	-8	5
2025-09-05	13.59	13.05	-12.97	2525781	Balance	12	6
2025-08-29	13.16	13.03	-16.12	3780494	Balance	-2	10
2025-08-22	13.09	13.03	-17.23	3120246	Balance	-11	11
2025-08-15	12.68	13.02	-20.13	4817632	Balance	-13	6
2025-08-08	12.53	13.06	-20.96	4995566	Rotation Up	-1	17
2025-08-01	13.38	13.08	-14.26	8645214	Rotation Up	16	36
2025-07-25	14.05	13.12	-12.71	4714649	Balance	28	39
2025-07-18	13.77	13.15	-13.37	3980139	Balance	20	17
2025-07-11	13.48	13.21	-15.06	6796935	Balance	-4	3
2025-07-04	12.93	13.33	-19.03	4162341	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2025-06-27	12.21	13.44	-22.71	7526560	Downward Expansion	-42	18
2025-06-20	12.87	13.60	-16.34	3233983	Downward Expansion	-28	17
2025-06-13	12.80	13.72	-17.51	4582958	Downward Expansion	-33	16
2025-06-06	13.33	13.82	-15.06	4184967	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2025-05-30	12.92	13.94	-17.00	4726978	Downward Expansion	-54	35
2025-05-23	11.97	14.07	-22.41	4808588	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2025-05-16	12.66	14.20	-20.72	6193588	Downward Expansion	-58	54
2025-05-09	12.18	14.34	-20.42	8897642	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2025-05-02	11.63	14.49	-24.99	10674866	Downward Expansion	-75	53
2025-04-25	13.07	14.65	-14.23	5292989	Downward Expansion	-53	32
2025-04-18	13.40	14.79	-8.76	6902493	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2025-04-11	12.89	14.91	-13.97	6505378	Downward Expansion	-59	33
2025-04-04	13.63	15.05	-4.46	6145528	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2025-03-28	13.68	15.17	-13.07	4504638	Downward Expansion	-42	30
2025-03-21	13.33	15.25	-17.07	6341589	Downward Expansion	-47	36
2025-03-14	12.92	15.36	-19.85	4822451	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2025-03-07	13.61	15.47	-18.13	9296562	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2025-02-28	13.23	15.57	-23.37	5170029	Downward Expansion	-63	50
2025-02-21	13.69	15.65	-21.99	6063787	Downward Expansion	-65	56
2025-02-14	12.97	15.66	-27.92	3453194	Downward Expansion	-69	84
2025-02-07	12.98	15.73	-27.53	4559582	Downward Expansion	-70	85
2025-01-31	12.97	15.78	-28.36	6601258	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2025-01-24	12.87	15.88	-30.33	6080009	Downward Expansion	-81	87
2025-01-17	13.83	15.98	-24.46	5906888	Downward Expansion	-69	80
2025-01-10	13.05	16.08	-27.03	5101247	Balance	-86	83
2025-01-03	14.59	16.21	-20.55	3331744	Balance	-43	54
2024-12-27	15.12	16.32	-18.62	2115041	Balance	-25	34
2024-12-20	15.38	16.40	-17.06	3687413	Balance	-20	12
2024-12-13	17.17	16.47	-9.44	2449331	Balance	43	24
2024-12-06	16.37	16.48	-14.22	2589950	Balance	-10	7
2024-11-29	16.85	16.52	-11.04	2137112	Balance	9	4
2024-11-22	16.55	16.57	-11.62	2713664	Balance	-25	11
2024-11-15	15.77	16.61	-14.39	4012417	Balance	-32	18
2024-11-08	16.87	16.65	-10.43	4600792	Balance	8	5
2024-11-01	16.79	16.63	-6.52	4439134	Balance	-4	7
2024-10-25	15.93	16.62	-12.44	2295824	Balance	-17	13
2024-10-18	16.89	16.68	-8.13	2019415	Balance	4	6
2024-10-11	16.54	16.71	-9.12	2507241	Rotation Up	12	12
2024-10-04	16.52	16.74	-8.08	3568937	Rotation Up	15	20
2024-09-27	17.31	16.76	-3.34	2813990	Rotation Up	22	29
2024-09-20	17.07	16.74	-4.15	4003018	Balance	17	21
2024-09-13	17.11	16.78	-2.61	3078624	Balance	1	15
2024-09-06	17.04	16.82	0.85	3340220	Downward Expansion	-10	17
2024-08-30	16.28	16.84	-7.58	2301541	Downward Expansion	-26	24
2024-08-23	16.43	16.89	-6.70	3877088	Downward Expansion	-30	25
2024-08-16	16.28	16.89	-6.40	3784642	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-08-09	16.61	16.87	-0.92	7630011	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2024-08-02	15.66	16.83	-6.76	4828837	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2024-07-26	13.94	16.86	-19.03	5605794	Downward Expansion	-84	87
2024-07-19	15.06	16.91	-13.76	3937120	Rotation Down	-72	78
2024-07-12	14.52	16.90	-18.92	4417229	Rotation Down	-56	69
2024-07-05	15.91	16.88	-10.78	1538183	Balance	-38	47
2024-06-28	16.04	16.78	-8.63	4481640	Balance	-25	22
2024-06-21	16.76	16.67	-4.91	2640698	Balance	16	9
2024-06-14	16.99	16.54	-3.32	2831930	Upward Expansion	26	13
2024-06-07	17.69	16.39	2.06	2086414	Upward Expansion	49	25
2024-05-31	17.79	16.19	3.83	2601395	Upward Expansion	52	29
2024-05-24	17.37	15.99	0.77	2405739	Upward Expansion	49	32
2024-05-17	17.33	15.80	0.27	3347924	Upward Expansion	52	38
2024-05-10	17.58	15.59	3.05	4732240	Upward Expansion	52	38
2024-05-03	18.46	15.39	9.88	6651930	Deceleration	70	41
2024-04-26	17.86	15.16	6.54	2969640	Deceleration	52	25
2024-04-19	16.72	14.99	1.86	2353462	Deceleration	36	21
2024-04-12	16.46	14.87	-3.29	3439638	Deceleration	42	29
2024-04-05	16.57	14.78	-4.51	3296585	Upward Expansion	47	38
2024-03-29	17.64	14.67	0.23	2340547	Upward Expansion	53	45
2024-03-22	17.76	14.56	1.02	2998610	Upward Expansion	56	44
2024-03-15	17.43	14.44	0.96	5563853	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-03-08	17.06	14.33	-1.50	3831571	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-03-01	16.76	14.28	-3.92	6279442	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-02-23	18.32	14.22	5.59	2115864	Upward Expansion	76	90
2024-02-16	18.21	14.14	6.55	3738880	Upward Expansion	80	91
2024-02-09	17.63	14.07	2.66	3771479	Upward Expansion	78	87
2024-02-02	17.78	13.99	4.81	4235259	Rotation Up	86	85
2024-01-26	16.65	13.90	-0.62	3171920	Rotation Up	52	75
2024-01-19	15.44	13.87	-7.14	3056250	Rotation Up	38	71
2024-01-12	15.54	13.87	-5.74	5113114	Rotation Up	39	73
2024-01-05	16.42	13.86	1.06	5033973	Rotation Up	50	76
2023-12-29	15.53	13.81	-6.17	2600705	Rotation Up	45	61
2023-12-22	14.70	13.82	-11.23	4278441	Downward Expansion	17	30
2023-12-15	13.97	13.84	-15.29	5020810	Downward Expansion	5	18
2023-12-08	12.89	13.91	-20.48	3208610	Downward Expansion	-29	24
2023-12-01	12.91	14.01	-20.87	3902433	Downward Expansion	-34	23
2023-11-24	12.76	14.15	-21.82	2343721	Downward Expansion	-41	29
2023-11-17	12.56	14.32	-22.92	4839291	Downward Expansion	-47	40
2023-11-10	11.68	14.48	-27.22	4338590	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2023-11-03	11.79	14.64	-26.07	3968088	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2023-10-27	11.69	14.79	-23.00	3168498	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2023-10-20	11.08	14.92	-29.21	3278136	Downward Expansion	-81	90

Price vs TrendAbove+41.0%

Trend directionRising+17.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+7.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+48.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+29.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+59.4%

Price momentumPositive+91.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led4.54×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

70 / ±100

+0.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

67 /100

-1.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

UTZ Directional State ↗ UTZ Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance1

Rotation Up61

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration60

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 15%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 53%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-08-14	2026-10-09	Developing	+0.9%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-07	New	+0.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-10	2026-07-17	Extended	-39.8%
Balance	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	-3.2%
Rotation Up	2025-08-01	2025-08-08	New	-6.4%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-07-25	New	+4.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-07-04	Established	-6.5%
Balance	2024-10-18	2025-01-10	Established	-22.7%
Rotation Up	2024-09-27	2024-10-11	New	-4.5%
Balance	2024-09-13	2024-09-20	New	-0.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-09-06	Developing	+22.3%
Rotation Down	2024-07-12	2024-07-19	New	+3.7%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-07-05	New	-5.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-10	2024-06-14	Developing	-3.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing28

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution42

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 29.90
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +91.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +76.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 80th percentile10 in cohort

Test UTZ trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.97×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume4.54×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore UTZ Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 14.26rising

Slow Activity USD 11.71rising

Trend Reference USD 10.14+41.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 13.25+7.9% close margin

Structural low USD 6.72shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.8%

Annualized volatility +97.9%

From structural high -0.2%

From structural low +112.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	-2.1%-13.0% to +11.4%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-4.5%	+58.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-5.5%-11.2% to +5.7%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-8.2%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-5.8%-34.6% to -1.6%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-12.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-18.0%-26.3% to -9.7%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-31.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

UTZ Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map