Weekly structural research · JPX · Consumer Cyclical

2705 Stage Analysis

OOTOYA Holdings Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close JPY 8,880.00Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^N225

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction 60−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 52/100directional strength

Maturity 96/100lifecycle context

Confidence 63/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +53.4%JPY 5,787.52 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	8,880.00	7,785.24	10.47	37900	Upward Expansion	60	52
2026-09-18	8,850.00	7,740.50	12.46	68900	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-09-11	8,710.00	7,684.13	12.56	121900	Upward Expansion	68	83
2026-09-04	9,490.00	7,619.80	20.90	178900	Upward Expansion	81	92
2026-08-28	9,560.00	7,522.48	19.56	107700	Upward Expansion	91	95
2026-08-21	9,240.00	7,421.51	16.55	24500	Upward Expansion	90	93
2026-08-14	8,440.00	7,326.55	2.51	8200	Upward Expansion	68	79
2026-08-07	8,530.00	7,257.92	8.50	12000	Upward Expansion	75	80
2026-07-31	8,580.00	7,174.66	11.29	15900	Upward Expansion	83	83
2026-07-24	8,100.00	7,085.08	4.72	8600	Upward Expansion	71	76
2026-07-17	8,050.00	7,008.84	4.80	17300	Upward Expansion	73	70
2026-07-10	8,040.00	6,934.27	-2.18	7100	Upward Expansion	74	47
2026-07-03	7,700.00	6,860.36	-8.14	4800	Upward Expansion	66	40
2026-06-26	7,500.00	6,796.13	-10.35	11100	Upward Expansion	58	30
2026-06-19	7,050.00	6,737.90	-18.27	11100	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-06-12	7,690.00	6,693.67	-4.38	12600	Upward Expansion	71	70
2026-06-05	7,000.00	6,627.44	-14.01	22200	Upward Expansion	60	68
2026-05-29	7,740.00	6,587.87	-5.07	51000	Upward Expansion	77	81
2026-05-22	7,890.00	6,517.32	1.00	133600	Deceleration	84	66
2026-05-15	7,290.00	6,443.76	-3.98	77800	Deceleration	67	38
2026-05-08	6,750.00	6,386.54	-13.21	16700	Deceleration	34	21
2026-05-01	6,850.00	6,345.00	-7.67	26600	Deceleration	38	28
2026-04-24	6,890.00	6,300.46	-7.83	38200	Deceleration	39	28
2026-04-17	6,970.00	6,266.22	-5.20	38300	Deceleration	39	28
2026-04-10	6,930.00	6,226.98	-3.60	65600	Deceleration	40	28
2026-04-03	6,790.00	6,186.42	0.72	75100	Upward Expansion	44	34
2026-03-27	6,780.00	6,145.87	-0.19	108500	Upward Expansion	52	52
2026-03-20	6,919.59	6,101.34	1.71	60900	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-03-13	7,009.32	6,049.49	1.98	83000	Upward Expansion	68	69
2026-03-06	7,338.35	5,993.99	3.12	119500	Upward Expansion	81	89
2026-02-27	7,537.76	5,927.51	-0.06	88900	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-02-20	7,158.88	5,852.74	-1.86	64100	Upward Expansion	98	99
2026-02-13	6,780.00	5,790.25	-7.34	63900	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-02-06	6,570.62	5,740.07	-5.93	71000	Upward Expansion	86	95
2026-01-30	6,530.74	5,696.20	-5.02	48200	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-23	6,391.15	5,653.99	-8.04	50200	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-01-16	6,381.18	5,617.10	-8.44	47500	Upward Expansion	97	97
2026-01-09	6,032.21	5,580.87	-10.28	49700	Upward Expansion	86	83
2026-01-02	5,892.62	5,555.94	-9.74	13500	Upward Expansion	75	73
2025-12-26	5,812.85	5,535.34	-11.80	29800	Upward Expansion	63	57
2025-12-19	5,812.85	5,516.06	-9.72	21500	Upward Expansion	64	55
2025-12-12	5,822.82	5,496.45	-12.09	17400	Upward Expansion	66	48
2025-12-05	5,772.97	5,476.51	-12.40	17400	Upward Expansion	59	40
2025-11-28	5,753.03	5,460.56	-12.46	22000	Upward Expansion	59	42
2025-11-21	5,723.12	5,442.94	-10.20	24800	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-11-14	5,703.18	5,424.00	-13.78	50200	Upward Expansion	55	41
2025-11-07	5,812.85	5,405.39	-12.15	50800	Deceleration	71	46
2025-10-31	5,623.41	5,383.79	-18.61	28100	Deceleration	41	26
2025-10-24	5,683.24	5,361.52	-12.85	35200	Upward Expansion	50	28
2025-10-17	5,573.56	5,342.24	-11.62	45500	Upward Expansion	47	36
2025-10-10	5,503.76	5,334.60	-13.79	57300	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-10-03	5,513.74	5,327.29	-9.42	121100	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-09-26	5,862.71	5,319.64	-2.96	91000	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-09-19	5,792.91	5,296.39	-3.43	70100	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-09-12	5,713.15	5,274.47	-4.30	76300	Upward Expansion	98	99
2025-09-05	5,573.56	5,255.87	-3.02	81100	Upward Expansion	97	98
2025-08-29	5,443.94	5,241.25	-4.78	42400	Upward Expansion	92	94
2025-08-22	5,364.18	5,228.64	-6.07	21400	Upward Expansion	78	82
2025-08-15	5,344.24	5,218.02	-8.13	22000	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-08-08	5,344.24	5,207.07	-4.86	24300	Upward Expansion	76	61
2025-08-01	5,294.38	5,197.12	-3.63	12800	Upward Expansion	60	39
2025-07-25	5,284.41	5,188.50	-5.47	10000	Upward Expansion	48	29
2025-07-18	5,274.44	5,180.21	-1.91	10200	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-07-11	5,254.50	5,171.25	-1.61	19300	Upward Expansion	56	47
2025-07-04	5,264.47	5,162.63	-1.92	22500	Upward Expansion	55	42
2025-06-27	5,284.41	5,153.02	-2.31	11900	Upward Expansion	56	47
2025-06-20	5,294.38	5,142.40	2.35	9500	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-06-13	5,284.41	5,132.12	3.79	19900	Upward Expansion	56	34
2025-06-06	5,274.44	5,122.17	3.99	15600	Upward Expansion	56	33
2025-05-30	5,234.56	5,112.55	2.73	12800	Upward Expansion	50	42
2025-05-23	5,224.59	5,104.60	4.86	9800	Upward Expansion	51	46
2025-05-16	5,224.59	5,092.83	3.35	16500	Upward Expansion	51	44
2025-05-09	5,294.38	5,085.87	5.56	17300	Upward Expansion	62	44
2025-05-02	5,224.59	5,076.91	6.22	10400	Upward Expansion	44	23
2025-04-25	5,154.79	5,071.94	8.24	22000	Upward Expansion	25	20
2025-04-18	5,144.82	5,069.30	11.26	18100	Upward Expansion	25	24
2025-04-11	5,164.76	5,070.97	15.74	82200	Upward Expansion	32	20
2025-04-04	4,955.38	5,070.32	10.81	85300	Upward Expansion	14	14
2025-03-28	5,104.94	5,076.97	4.16	108300	Upward Expansion	65	55
2025-03-21	5,344.20	5,079.31	7.56	43200	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-03-14	5,284.49	5,071.68	8.34	27700	Upward Expansion	85	90
2025-03-07	5,284.49	5,066.37	8.91	40400	Rotation Up	91	90
2025-02-28	5,165.06	5,059.41	5.85	26100	Rotation Up	48	71
2025-02-21	5,135.21	5,054.76	0.96	16600	Rotation Up	42	67
2025-02-14	5,155.11	5,056.09	0.36	25900	Rotation Up	45	65
2025-02-07	5,135.21	5,056.42	0.87	28500	Balance	43	53
2025-01-31	5,065.54	5,057.75	-2.63	37500	Balance	5	17
2025-01-24	5,045.64	5,062.06	-4.16	21500	Balance	-5	13
2025-01-17	5,015.78	5,065.38	-1.38	22900	Balance	-13	15
2025-01-10	5,045.64	5,067.04	-2.92	29200	Downward Expansion	-10	16
2025-01-03	5,035.69	5,067.37	-5.09	8100	Downward Expansion	-31	21
2024-12-27	5,035.69	5,068.36	-6.38	31900	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2024-12-20	5,005.83	5,068.36	-3.51	19300	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2024-12-13	4,995.88	5,070.02	-5.83	23200	Downward Expansion	-43	30
2024-12-06	4,975.98	5,071.68	-5.54	18600	Downward Expansion	-53	35
2024-11-29	4,966.02	5,073.01	-3.90	26100	Downward Expansion	-57	41
2024-11-22	4,985.93	5,077.32	-3.95	16800	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2024-11-15	4,985.93	5,078.65	-5.14	10400	Downward Expansion	-59	63
2024-11-08	4,985.93	5,077.65	-7.47	12900	Rotation Down	-61	68
2024-11-01	4,995.88	5,080.64	-4.14	18800	Rotation Down	-32	51
2024-10-25	4,871.48	5,081.30	-6.52	52100	Balance	-47	56
2024-10-18	5,015.78	5,092.41	-6.86	12100	Balance	-21	24
2024-10-11	5,025.74	5,102.54	-8.53	24000	Balance	-16	14
2024-10-04	5,075.50	5,111.99	-5.66	30400	Balance	12	7
2024-09-27	5,075.50	5,117.80	-8.80	65400	Balance	7	7
2024-09-20	5,194.92	5,122.95	-1.87	15300	Balance	28	30
2024-09-13	5,145.16	5,124.45	-0.12	26600	Balance	18	19
2024-09-06	5,155.11	5,124.63	0.31	25900	Balance	19	17
2024-08-30	5,175.01	5,129.77	-5.49	18900	Balance	-4	4
2024-08-23	5,115.30	5,134.59	-6.37	10400	Balance	-29	19
2024-08-16	5,125.26	5,141.72	-5.86	7200	Balance	-25	16
2024-08-09	5,075.50	5,148.86	1.14	78200	Balance	-30	16
2024-08-02	5,025.74	5,155.33	-2.29	31000	Rotation Up	-36	19
2024-07-26	5,175.01	5,159.15	-4.03	15600	Rotation Up	25	50
2024-07-19	5,165.06	5,156.68	-9.81	12100	Rotation Up	21	45
2024-07-12	5,175.01	5,148.23	-12.09	13700	Balance	22	31
2024-07-05	5,194.92	5,134.32	-11.16	20600	Balance	7	17
2024-06-28	5,145.16	5,126.21	-9.05	31900	Balance	-22	15
2024-06-21	5,065.54	5,119.42	-8.07	14800	Deceleration	-36	21
2024-06-14	5,055.59	5,120.93	-8.65	13800	Deceleration	-39	23
2024-06-07	5,065.54	5,120.11	-7.98	14000	Deceleration	-13	15
2024-05-31	5,035.69	5,118.63	-7.91	16900	Deceleration	-17	19
2024-05-24	5,055.59	5,118.14	-7.82	11800	Deceleration	-25	20
2024-05-17	5,045.64	5,119.98	-8.25	17100	Rotation Down	-28	24
2024-05-10	5,015.78	5,117.01	-7.45	28700	Rotation Down	-24	39
2024-05-03	5,095.40	5,115.86	-6.04	11800	Rotation Down	-20	42
2024-04-26	5,025.74	5,107.42	-6.56	21700	Rotation Down	-21	43
2024-04-19	4,956.07	5,108.59	-5.73	57100	Deceleration	-28	32
2024-04-12	5,075.50	5,119.71	-9.49	23300	Deceleration	4	13
2024-04-05	5,015.78	5,131.16	-9.44	86500	Deceleration	11	8
2024-03-29	5,204.87	5,143.93	-9.33	123700	Deceleration	47	26
2024-03-22	5,319.43	5,157.36	-8.61	28300	Deceleration	55	35
2024-03-15	5,309.48	5,154.71	-3.85	54900	Deceleration	44	25
2024-03-08	5,249.83	5,132.00	-7.38	39500	Deceleration	36	18
2024-03-01	5,229.94	5,111.62	-8.34	35800	Deceleration	39	23
2024-02-23	5,239.88	5,083.12	-6.36	28700	Upward Expansion	43	28
2024-02-16	5,150.40	5,046.33	-6.50	53400	Upward Expansion	57	39
2024-02-09	5,309.48	5,012.19	0.56	74300	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-02-02	5,319.43	4,971.59	3.10	29600	Upward Expansion	66	73
2024-01-26	5,329.37	4,930.99	4.80	44900	Upward Expansion	69	73
2024-01-19	5,339.31	4,888.40	4.77	42700	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-01-12	5,269.71	4,843.16	4.91	40400	Deceleration	67	47
2024-01-05	5,140.46	4,797.10	9.46	16900	Deceleration	43	20
2023-12-29	5,100.68	4,754.34	8.83	47900	Deceleration	25	14
2023-12-22	4,911.77	4,712.91	6.22	50200	Deceleration	12	15
2023-12-15	4,757.66	4,676.95	3.95	59100	Deceleration	1	7
2023-12-08	4,951.54	4,650.94	10.91	36100	Deceleration	23	17
2023-12-01	4,941.60	4,617.46	7.62	36300	Deceleration	36	24
2023-11-24	5,110.63	4,580.51	11.25	31500	Deceleration	43	28
2023-11-17	5,031.08	4,539.24	10.34	38500	Deceleration	46	28
2023-11-10	5,021.14	4,501.79	14.22	87200	Deceleration	38	25
2023-11-03	5,021.14	4,464.51	17.23	38200	Deceleration	39	26
2023-10-27	5,110.63	4,422.58	23.83	62100	Deceleration	39	24
2023-10-20	4,956.51	4,380.32	20.00	51200	Deceleration	38	28
2023-10-13	4,981.37	4,348.51	17.42	40900	Upward Expansion	44	34
2023-10-06	4,842.17	4,314.71	19.78	132400	Upward Expansion	51	48

Price vs TrendAbove+14.1%

Trend directionRising+11.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+53.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+16.2%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+20.8%

Price momentumPositive+31.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.91×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

60 / ±100

-30.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

52 /100

-43.3 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

2705 Directional State ↗ 2705 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance14

Rotation Up46

Upward Expansion76

Deceleration71

Rotation Down29

Downward Expansion14

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 51%Deceleration 22%Rotation Down 4%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-29	2026-09-25	Established	+14.7%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-05-22	Developing	+13.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-04-03	Established	+19.1%
Deceleration	2025-10-31	2025-11-07	New	+3.4%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-14	2025-10-24	Extended	+7.5%
Rotation Up	2025-02-14	2025-03-07	New	+2.5%
Balance	2025-01-17	2025-02-07	New	+2.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-01-10	Developing	+1.2%
Rotation Down	2024-11-01	2024-11-08	New	-0.2%
Balance	2024-08-09	2024-10-25	Developing	-4.0%
Rotation Up	2024-07-19	2024-08-02	New	-2.7%
Balance	2024-06-28	2024-07-12	New	+0.6%
Deceleration	2024-05-24	2024-06-21	Developing	+0.2%
Rotation Down	2024-04-26	2024-05-17	New	+0.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution45

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^N225

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 78/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.47
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +31.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +6.6%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 19th percentile191 in cohort

Test 2705 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.81×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.91×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 2705 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity JPY 8,964.67falling

Slow Activity JPY 8,214.31rising

Trend Reference JPY 7,785.24+14.1% close margin

Current Fair Value JPY 5,787.52+53.4% close margin

Structural low JPY 6,550.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.9%

Annualized volatility +35.8%

From structural high -12.9%

From structural low +63.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^N225	Regime survived	Read
Near term	41	+1.0%-6.3% to +26.7%	+63.4%	+63.4%	-1.1%	+85.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	15	+1.9%-7.2% to +29.8%	+60.0%	+60.0%	-2.1%	+73.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	8	+15.4%+0.6% to +32.2%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+3.9%	+75.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+21.7%+6.7% to +55.8%	+100.0%	+100.0%	-5.3%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

2705 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map