Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

CALC Stage Analysis

CalciMedica, Inc. Common Stock

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 1.27Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -79−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 88/100directional strength

Maturity 26/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -91.2%USD 14.39 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.27	3.21	-87.84	507682	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2026-10-02	1.60	3.31	-85.17	156136	Downward Expansion	-74	83
2026-09-25	1.75	3.38	-84.18	313552	Downward Expansion	-72	79
2026-09-18	1.92	3.41	-82.60	383854	Rotation Down	-71	77
2026-09-11	1.98	3.43	-82.40	414687	Rotation Down	-46	66
2026-09-04	2.17	3.47	-81.37	609061	Rotation Down	-34	57
2026-08-28	2.32	3.50	-80.54	2825111	Balance	-33	46
2026-08-21	2.86	3.58	-76.46	1962298	Balance	-24	22
2026-08-14	3.38	4.36	-73.56	1151941	Balance	-34	21
2026-08-07	3.44	5.10	-73.38	2104749	Balance	-32	21
2026-07-31	5.00	5.96	-60.13	1476063	Balance	-4	8
2026-07-24	3.80	6.92	-70.15	1278317	Deceleration	-33	21
2026-07-17	3.68	7.83	-72.37	1751894	Deceleration	-34	22
2026-07-10	4.65	8.76	-67.23	1625751	Deceleration	-19	20
2026-07-03	4.83	9.33	-65.76	4365783	Deceleration	-23	26
2026-06-26	4.08	9.90	-71.03	61764304	Downward Expansion	-27	30
2026-06-19	3.78	10.47	-74.56	359657	Downward Expansion	-30	32
2026-06-12	4.34	10.90	-70.33	1362538	Downward Expansion	-33	38
2026-06-05	5.30	11.25	-63.24	3667164	Downward Expansion	-39	48
2026-05-29	4.08	11.58	-73.17	970183	Downward Expansion	-54	61
2026-05-22	3.14	11.94	-78.97	405631	Downward Expansion	-55	83
2026-05-15	3.29	12.33	-78.03	843559	Downward Expansion	-55	84
2026-05-08	3.14	12.76	-79.31	534513	Downward Expansion	-66	88
2026-05-01	2.94	13.18	-79.87	702771	Downward Expansion	-68	88
2026-04-24	2.92	13.62	-79.94	790687	Downward Expansion	-65	78
2026-04-17	3.02	14.03	-79.06	702109	Downward Expansion	-63	78
2026-04-10	3.09	14.44	-77.47	1862540	Downward Expansion	-63	79
2026-04-03	2.92	14.86	-77.94	510539	Downward Expansion	-65	71
2026-03-27	2.84	15.28	-78.00	962019	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2026-03-20	2.89	15.63	-78.68	1803602	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2026-03-13	4.15	16.00	-70.36	2028351	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2026-03-06	3.64	16.35	-74.58	4977796	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-02-27	2.58	16.68	-82.41	1454088	Rotation Down	-69	89
2026-02-20	2.70	17.09	-81.87	1940225	Rotation Down	-47	76
2026-02-13	3.28	17.63	-78.11	2156204	Rotation Down	-44	54
2026-02-06	3.00	18.02	-80.47	5686109	Rotation Down	-45	48
2026-01-30	4.50	18.26	-71.73	52480977	Rotation Down	-4	19
2026-01-23	26.30	18.37	62.85	168222	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-01-16	25.65	17.74	61.15	375698	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-01-09	29.25	17.15	83.78	507355	Upward Expansion	68	84
2026-01-02	33.70	16.47	119.19	353935	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-12-26	31.15	15.63	102.80	420539	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-12-19	31.75	14.88	113.01	605465	Upward Expansion	97	98
2025-12-12	21.65	14.12	49.00	592283	Upward Expansion	77	87
2025-12-05	21.85	13.73	48.66	223087	Upward Expansion	83	83
2025-11-28	21.35	13.34	47.64	1456544	Deceleration	81	66
2025-11-21	16.45	12.92	19.42	130641	Deceleration	57	29
2025-11-14	15.00	12.62	4.98	114225	Deceleration	35	19
2025-11-07	15.20	12.38	5.44	118139	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-10-31	14.80	12.13	-1.21	115637	Upward Expansion	43	28
2025-10-24	15.03	11.94	1.24	156893	Upward Expansion	55	34
2025-10-17	16.05	11.77	9.03	206458	Upward Expansion	59	37
2025-10-10	15.82	11.57	8.85	399097	Upward Expansion	57	35
2025-10-03	16.00	11.37	6.56	197795	Upward Expansion	59	38
2025-09-26	15.40	11.21	2.35	287811	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-09-19	15.10	11.07	-1.44	411276	Deceleration	54	35
2025-09-12	15.85	10.95	3.60	346810	Deceleration	60	38
2025-09-05	15.40	10.84	1.44	529079	Deceleration	51	34
2025-08-29	13.50	10.78	-12.28	156511	Upward Expansion	43	31
2025-08-22	13.90	10.75	-11.22	207127	Upward Expansion	57	44
2025-08-15	14.55	10.74	-9.06	141835	Rotation Up	62	74
2025-08-08	13.70	10.77	-15.08	143507	Rotation Up	37	70
2025-08-01	14.70	10.82	-7.30	432740	Rotation Up	35	68
2025-07-25	19.00	10.87	15.31	1106752	Rotation Up	53	70
2025-07-18	15.05	10.71	-8.39	905689	Rotation Up	40	33
2025-07-11	10.00	10.67	-39.03	454556	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2025-07-04	8.05	10.79	-52.08	138158	Downward Expansion	-59	47
2025-06-27	7.15	11.00	-57.58	265449	Downward Expansion	-75	57
2025-06-20	8.20	11.33	-50.22	73115	Downward Expansion	-63	45
2025-06-13	8.60	11.64	-49.07	72440	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-06-06	8.70	11.90	-49.82	111996	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2025-05-30	8.55	12.19	-50.78	49721	Downward Expansion	-46	28
2025-05-23	9.00	12.49	-48.58	93061	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-05-16	10.00	12.86	-45.41	193684	Downward Expansion	-47	37
2025-05-09	10.00	13.21	-42.96	296866	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2025-05-02	8.75	13.51	-51.30	87269	Downward Expansion	-66	73
2025-04-25	7.50	13.95	-57.89	132355	Downward Expansion	-75	86
2025-04-18	7.75	14.40	-54.80	38471	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2025-04-11	7.68	14.98	-56.92	103580	Downward Expansion	-81	77
2025-04-04	9.10	15.37	-45.99	163595	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2025-03-28	9.95	15.95	-47.47	881343	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-03-21	10.05	16.31	-48.81	108507	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2025-03-14	9.90	16.65	-50.05	77392	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2025-03-07	11.20	17.02	-45.52	422213	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2025-02-28	11.10	17.43	-48.43	63588	Downward Expansion	-70	55
2025-02-21	11.75	17.81	-47.94	76925	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2025-02-14	12.55	18.07	-46.35	94444	Downward Expansion	-65	60
2025-02-07	13.35	18.34	-42.02	197611	Downward Expansion	-60	48
2025-01-31	12.80	18.71	-45.32	211574	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2025-01-24	13.65	18.99	-43.49	122892	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2025-01-17	15.45	19.20	-36.16	80332	Downward Expansion	-42	29
2025-01-10	15.10	19.57	-36.54	31638	Downward Expansion	-56	40
2025-01-03	16.10	19.88	-34.15	202637	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2024-12-27	14.25	20.20	-42.50	107279	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2024-12-20	13.80	20.67	-43.98	144975	Downward Expansion	-70	74
2024-12-13	13.65	21.08	-46.07	418343	Downward Expansion	-73	69
2024-12-06	14.30	21.53	-43.35	734203	Downward Expansion	-68	54
2024-11-29	17.25	21.99	-30.06	108285	Downward Expansion	-57	48
2024-11-22	17.25	22.37	-29.99	119722	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2024-11-15	16.65	22.70	-31.42	343455	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2024-11-08	17.35	22.82	-31.30	532491	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-11-01	17.55	22.98	-27.02	959423	Balance	-62	49
2024-10-25	20.12	23.11	-17.74	25126	Balance	-50	38
2024-10-18	20.40	23.13	-16.21	75579	Balance	-50	35
2024-10-11	19.05	23.14	-21.12	81661	Balance	-52	27
2024-10-04	21.79	23.16	-8.30	123009	Balance	-34	15
2024-09-27	21.20	23.18	-10.24	90402	Balance	-34	16
2024-09-20	24.95	23.22	7.00	182316	Balance	-22	11
2024-09-13	19.52	23.14	-14.52	397868	Balance	-43	19
2024-09-06	26.50	23.24	22.79	518648	Balance	9	6
2024-08-30	20.85	23.32	-8.36	58127	Deceleration	-51	26
2024-08-23	20.06	23.56	-12.51	251964	Deceleration	-54	26
2024-08-16	20.94	23.82	-7.76	71727	Deceleration	-52	26
2024-08-09	23.50	23.91	9.14	70709	Deceleration	-48	25
2024-08-02	22.55	23.70	5.43	317587	Deceleration	-42	28
2024-07-26	19.70	23.54	-10.45	108754	Deceleration	-23	33
2024-07-19	20.65	23.36	-8.70	82616	Deceleration	-19	22
2024-07-12	24.45	23.18	3.56	149510	Deceleration	-8	13
2024-07-05	21.20	22.88	-10.43	114302	Deceleration	-15	18
2024-06-28	19.80	22.82	-13.72	1214794	Deceleration	8	12
2024-06-21	26.75	22.82	15.87	90459	Deceleration	39	21
2024-06-14	24.40	22.49	6.32	27461	Upward Expansion	38	21
2024-06-07	25.55	22.26	14.42	17544	Upward Expansion	53	34
2024-05-31	28.40	21.97	29.62	208610	Upward Expansion	64	54
2024-05-24	26.00	21.49	16.47	62525	Upward Expansion	58	66
2024-05-17	27.25	21.00	24.34	127145	Upward Expansion	60	71
2024-05-10	28.00	20.40	31.37	30245	Upward Expansion	66	69
2024-05-03	28.70	19.82	37.87	88814	Deceleration	70	62
2024-04-26	27.25	19.25	32.97	128910	Deceleration	52	28
2024-04-19	20.10	18.78	2.06	33298	Deceleration	12	7
2024-04-12	22.20	18.55	6.00	71527	Deceleration	19	10
2024-04-05	21.48	18.35	1.90	166601	Deceleration	15	12
2024-03-29	20.80	18.15	-2.04	22533	Deceleration	25	17
2024-03-22	20.60	17.99	-4.71	102330	Deceleration	27	18
2024-03-15	19.70	17.83	-7.83	249581	Deceleration	30	20
2024-03-08	22.50	17.70	1.81	149174	Upward Expansion	37	21
2024-03-01	22.35	17.50	-3.34	60901	Upward Expansion	44	30
2024-02-23	22.45	17.28	-4.03	48616	Upward Expansion	58	43
2024-02-16	22.45	17.12	-5.78	133356	Upward Expansion	63	69
2024-02-09	29.00	16.99	16.08	45750	Upward Expansion	76	83
2024-02-02	27.90	16.64	10.16	223751	Upward Expansion	75	78
2024-01-26	27.85	16.35	8.30	143165	Balance	82	78
2024-01-19	23.91	16.09	-9.22	61089	Balance	46	44
2024-01-12	17.05	15.85	-35.84	7819	Balance	7	7
2024-01-05	17.90	16.12	-33.12	36445	Balance	11	11
2023-12-29	14.30	16.40	-49.99	37395	Balance	-29	15
2023-12-22	15.25	16.74	-47.89	21430	Rotation Up	14	17
2023-12-15	15.40	16.75	-48.29	43796	Rotation Up	20	29
2023-12-08	19.45	16.73	-34.11	60771	Rotation Up	31	42
2023-12-01	19.65	16.54	-34.64	66690	Downward Expansion	36	40
2023-11-24	16.83	16.45	-45.30	27937	Downward Expansion	-8	27
2023-11-17	17.40	16.53	-44.59	55182	Downward Expansion	-6	20
2023-11-10	16.87	16.62	-47.55	165936	Downward Expansion	-26	21
2023-11-03	14.25	16.62	-56.31	196363	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2023-10-27	11.15	16.65	-65.26	66271	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2023-10-20	9.35	17.11	-72.86	185759	Downward Expansion	-80	87

Price vs TrendBelow-60.5%

Trend directionFalling-46.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-91.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-21.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-87.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-20.6%

Price momentumNegative-58.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.23×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-79 / ±100

-33.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

88 /100

+21.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CALC Directional State ↗ CALC Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance11

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration37

Rotation Down81

Downward Expansion99

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 19%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 40%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-27.4%
Rotation Down	2026-09-04	2026-09-18	New	-11.5%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-28	Developing	-53.6%
Deceleration	2026-07-03	2026-07-24	New	-21.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-06	2026-06-26	Established	+12.2%
Rotation Down	2026-01-30	2026-02-27	Developing	-42.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-01-23	Developing	+20.4%
Deceleration	2025-11-14	2025-11-28	New	+42.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-07	Developing	-1.3%
Deceleration	2025-09-05	2025-09-19	New	-1.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-22	2025-08-29	New	-2.9%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-15	Developing	-3.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-07-11	Extended	-42.4%
Balance	2024-09-06	2024-11-01	Developing	-33.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing53

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution17

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: -87.84
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -58.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -81.8%
Healthcare regime cohort: 83th percentile286 in cohort

Test CALC trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.11×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.23×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CALC Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1.59falling

Slow Activity USD 3.01falling

Trend Reference USD 3.21-60.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 14.39-91.2% close margin

Structural low USD 1.27shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +54.0%

Annualized volatility +112.9%

From structural high -96.5%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	32	-7.8%-38.6% to +83.5%	+40.6%	+59.4%	-6.3%	+87.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-19.0%-59.1% to +45.8%	+27.3%	+72.7%	-9.5%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-30.6%-42.4% to +52.0%	+16.7%	+83.3%	-37.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-16.8%-70.5% to -12.4%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-56.1%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CALC Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map