Weekly structural research · NYSE · Consumer Cyclical

OXM Stage Analysis

Oxford Industries Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 25.38Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -74−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 89/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -57.5%USD 59.68 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	25.38	36.87	-37.17	3232690	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2026-10-02	24.93	37.20	-38.02	2856789	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-09-25	25.95	37.60	-36.24	3003065	Downward Expansion	-83	86
2026-09-18	28.47	38.03	-29.85	2399520	Downward Expansion	-79	77
2026-09-11	31.53	38.44	-23.13	2847103	Downward Expansion	-71	65
2026-09-04	30.87	38.64	-26.05	3473826	Balance	-71	52
2026-08-28	38.31	38.93	-8.85	1469826	Balance	-47	27
2026-08-21	36.20	38.86	-13.93	1270231	Balance	-50	31
2026-08-14	36.37	38.87	-15.38	1153957	Balance	-38	19
2026-08-07	36.99	38.99	-14.42	1315889	Balance	-6	8
2026-07-31	37.92	38.92	-9.52	1909414	Balance	-5	6
2026-07-24	38.65	38.81	-6.98	1514670	Balance	-0	6
2026-07-17	40.43	38.63	-3.66	2425022	Rotation Down	-10	23
2026-07-10	36.12	38.46	-15.53	2327970	Rotation Down	-20	42
2026-07-03	34.29	38.38	-19.37	1496953	Deceleration	-25	36
2026-06-26	35.22	38.55	-15.93	2784289	Deceleration	-21	24
2026-06-19	35.77	38.61	-17.00	4323392	Deceleration	10	11
2026-06-12	36.61	38.50	-14.78	4469284	Deceleration	20	11
2026-06-05	44.12	38.41	2.85	1245207	Deceleration	54	29
2026-05-29	44.62	38.13	0.52	1363328	Deceleration	60	33
2026-05-22	41.73	37.84	-5.47	1622907	Upward Expansion	51	30
2026-05-15	39.36	37.76	-10.94	1363445	Upward Expansion	56	42
2026-05-08	45.48	37.67	1.89	1381698	Upward Expansion	70	74
2026-05-01	42.53	37.29	-3.35	1161665	Upward Expansion	60	70
2026-04-24	44.61	37.16	1.55	1408294	Upward Expansion	69	72
2026-04-17	44.89	37.00	1.89	1468890	Balance	70	61
2026-04-10	42.14	36.92	-0.56	1413850	Balance	55	25
2026-04-03	38.71	37.00	-6.15	1942484	Balance	-26	19
2026-03-27	34.13	37.05	-15.62	2627044	Balance	-44	30
2026-03-20	33.68	37.31	-19.66	2113792	Balance	-38	23
2026-03-13	35.28	37.68	-18.52	1498031	Balance	-7	5
2026-03-06	36.90	37.93	-17.04	1143121	Balance	7	11
2026-02-27	38.98	37.93	-15.25	1143662	Balance	12	26
2026-02-20	40.71	37.81	-12.95	1149157	Balance	22	26
2026-02-13	37.63	37.80	-19.81	1148439	Balance	7	11
2026-02-06	39.41	37.87	-18.42	1560423	Balance	-0	12
2026-01-30	36.28	38.02	-26.16	1607496	Balance	-16	12
2026-01-23	36.41	38.16	-27.13	1178949	Balance	-28	14
2026-01-16	40.04	38.19	-21.68	2339536	Downward Expansion	-18	10
2026-01-09	34.88	38.14	-33.32	2424204	Downward Expansion	-49	33
2026-01-02	34.75	38.21	-33.96	1425405	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2025-12-26	33.22	38.76	-38.66	1511859	Downward Expansion	-60	31
2025-12-19	35.17	39.33	-35.30	3891250	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2025-12-12	33.73	39.81	-38.96	5557393	Downward Expansion	-61	32
2025-12-05	39.51	40.46	-30.16	2433988	Downward Expansion	-36	24
2025-11-28	36.95	40.82	-35.44	1538333	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2025-11-21	32.48	41.15	-42.12	2147002	Downward Expansion	-73	65
2025-11-14	33.90	41.68	-41.70	1736160	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2025-11-07	35.94	41.95	-39.05	1514292	Downward Expansion	-60	43
2025-10-31	35.68	42.31	-41.32	1748239	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2025-10-24	39.30	42.88	-35.82	2023811	Downward Expansion	-56	56
2025-10-17	36.76	43.38	-39.59	1928010	Downward Expansion	-58	60
2025-10-10	33.97	44.00	-44.06	2045394	Balance	-71	57
2025-10-03	38.64	44.61	-38.78	1633465	Balance	-43	22
2025-09-26	40.02	45.24	-36.71	1837105	Balance	-26	13
2025-09-19	42.27	45.81	-34.39	2627849	Balance	-17	10
2025-09-12	44.82	46.61	-30.62	5742737	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2025-09-05	40.07	47.37	-37.85	1728737	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2025-08-29	41.89	48.27	-35.81	1645106	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-08-22	44.69	49.45	-32.52	1238353	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-08-15	42.94	50.49	-35.86	1836689	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2025-08-08	36.98	51.68	-45.05	1524900	Downward Expansion	-65	51
2025-08-01	35.16	53.06	-47.44	1869785	Downward Expansion	-74	50
2025-07-25	40.61	54.34	-41.89	1616819	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2025-07-18	39.74	55.35	-43.36	2088515	Downward Expansion	-64	51
2025-07-11	43.89	56.50	-38.12	2260221	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2025-07-04	40.51	57.52	-43.96	1909152	Downward Expansion	-63	78
2025-06-27	37.19	58.60	-48.50	3324742	Downward Expansion	-73	79
2025-06-20	38.55	59.90	-45.71	2950371	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2025-06-13	36.95	60.98	-48.89	4572487	Downward Expansion	-78	51
2025-06-06	51.37	62.08	-30.37	1295850	Downward Expansion	-37	24
2025-05-30	50.22	62.71	-31.76	1366046	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2025-05-23	49.42	63.26	-32.75	1465846	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2025-05-16	53.42	63.89	-30.19	2098582	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2025-05-09	50.30	64.56	-31.72	2298406	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2025-05-02	46.76	65.20	-37.74	1895370	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2025-04-25	48.56	65.96	-34.51	2172794	Downward Expansion	-66	61
2025-04-18	41.91	66.95	-41.74	2025258	Downward Expansion	-85	71
2025-04-11	46.84	68.17	-36.81	3471532	Downward Expansion	-81	65
2025-04-04	52.67	69.18	-25.92	3373364	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2025-03-28	54.32	69.95	-31.28	3167481	Downward Expansion	-70	81
2025-03-21	55.39	70.77	-31.86	2318180	Downward Expansion	-71	86
2025-03-14	52.28	71.58	-36.14	3156944	Downward Expansion	-86	90
2025-03-07	57.49	72.54	-32.23	2448370	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2025-02-28	57.15	73.42	-35.44	1648731	Downward Expansion	-83	79
2025-02-21	66.14	74.44	-26.79	986099	Balance	-62	51
2025-02-14	67.81	75.33	-26.78	1381644	Balance	-47	30
2025-02-07	67.06	76.05	-27.15	1782698	Balance	-45	18
2025-01-31	77.26	76.87	-16.91	1115375	Balance	15	26
2025-01-24	75.75	77.23	-19.84	1121374	Balance	-7	18
2025-01-17	78.57	77.71	-15.98	1551678	Balance	-0	10
2025-01-10	78.63	78.10	-13.97	1443897	Balance	-1	5
2025-01-03	73.32	78.47	-21.76	1147644	Balance	-22	12
2024-12-27	71.13	79.11	-25.06	1052452	Downward Expansion	-37	18
2024-12-20	74.07	80.06	-22.11	2370363	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2024-12-13	74.54	80.77	-23.68	3734795	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2024-12-06	72.99	81.47	-26.31	1562292	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-11-29	76.03	82.31	-23.15	1479887	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2024-11-22	71.12	83.04	-27.75	1341307	Downward Expansion	-57	46
2024-11-15	69.86	83.88	-28.41	1312762	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2024-11-08	70.39	84.69	-29.93	1555070	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-11-01	66.62	85.48	-30.98	1134997	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2024-10-25	68.46	86.40	-30.58	1717649	Downward Expansion	-72	74
2024-10-18	73.54	87.47	-26.72	1728797	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-10-11	69.34	88.30	-30.81	1607135	Downward Expansion	-77	67
2024-10-04	69.55	89.15	-30.33	1834924	Downward Expansion	-81	59
2024-09-27	78.36	89.98	-21.93	1570177	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-09-20	78.45	90.41	-21.94	2713652	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2024-09-13	77.19	90.78	-22.58	3741354	Downward Expansion	-69	78
2024-09-06	75.76	91.17	-21.48	1034413	Downward Expansion	-78	83
2024-08-30	78.85	91.58	-22.09	1689708	Downward Expansion	-72	78
2024-08-23	79.57	91.82	-21.69	1414490	Downward Expansion	-75	75
2024-08-16	81.28	92.05	-19.43	1341171	Downward Expansion	-73	62
2024-08-09	83.93	92.22	-14.05	1045726	Rotation Down	-68	41
2024-08-02	87.70	92.26	-10.67	1235464	Rotation Down	-31	19
2024-07-26	92.82	92.20	-7.91	1051478	Rotation Down	-23	17
2024-07-19	89.34	92.07	-12.46	922668	Rotation Down	-21	28
2024-07-12	91.74	92.12	-12.31	970789	Rotation Down	-20	38
2024-07-05	87.85	92.05	-15.56	828921	Balance	-29	46
2024-06-28	90.18	91.88	-12.05	1682774	Balance	-19	25
2024-06-21	90.47	91.65	-12.10	2778156	Balance	1	12
2024-06-14	89.52	91.43	-12.69	2912829	Balance	1	7
2024-06-07	92.57	91.25	-8.56	1486813	Upward Expansion	30	15
2024-05-31	99.67	90.70	-0.62	1061282	Upward Expansion	62	35
2024-05-24	95.45	90.01	-5.38	1336951	Upward Expansion	51	31
2024-05-17	95.36	89.37	-5.89	827918	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-05-10	98.36	88.84	-1.71	735759	Upward Expansion	61	39
2024-05-03	97.99	88.22	-0.69	1024453	Upward Expansion	52	32
2024-04-26	96.09	87.70	-2.37	962803	Upward Expansion	45	28
2024-04-19	94.29	87.33	-1.97	1204737	Upward Expansion	55	38
2024-04-12	93.98	86.95	-5.65	1203801	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-04-05	94.44	86.69	-6.90	2199570	Upward Expansion	64	67
2024-03-29	100.56	86.35	-2.05	954687	Upward Expansion	81	84
2024-03-22	98.18	86.00	-4.37	982603	Upward Expansion	80	80
2024-03-15	94.90	85.71	-5.85	1527457	Upward Expansion	74	75
2024-03-08	94.59	85.55	-6.89	1341826	Upward Expansion	74	68
2024-03-01	91.20	85.48	-11.03	642781	Upward Expansion	64	56
2024-02-23	89.48	85.56	-12.56	533427	Balance	30	33
2024-02-16	89.13	85.73	-12.14	659232	Balance	28	24
2024-02-09	87.88	85.89	-14.31	612210	Balance	12	10
2024-02-02	86.03	85.96	-15.52	616867	Balance	6	6
2024-01-26	86.39	86.00	-14.60	646547	Balance	-1	4
2024-01-19	86.56	86.00	-14.17	579741	Rotation Up	3	8
2024-01-12	84.99	85.84	-15.23	799703	Rotation Up	15	23
2024-01-05	86.14	85.90	-12.94	735005	Rotation Up	19	35
2023-12-29	88.86	85.93	-11.90	412863	Rotation Up	21	36
2023-12-22	90.73	85.88	-9.96	832593	Downward Expansion	28	29
2023-12-15	89.54	85.95	-10.56	1200637	Downward Expansion	-5	16
2023-12-08	82.80	85.99	-15.57	1314224	Downward Expansion	-29	22
2023-12-01	83.23	86.37	-15.29	880489	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-11-24	84.01	86.67	-14.31	465938	Downward Expansion	-41	24
2023-11-17	84.00	86.88	-13.94	807015	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2023-11-10	76.27	87.18	-20.45	642782	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2023-11-03	78.72	87.60	-17.22	735728	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2023-10-27	76.33	87.85	-15.47	568538	Downward Expansion	-78	76
2023-10-20	79.38	88.38	-14.59	888282	Downward Expansion	-71	67

Price vs TrendBelow-31.2%

Trend directionFalling-5.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-57.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-13.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-37.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-21.6%

Price momentumNegative-39.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.53×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-74 / ±100

-3.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

89 /100

+23.8 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

OXM Directional State ↗ OXM Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance0

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down84

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 13%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 50%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-10-09	Developing	-19.5%
Balance	2026-07-24	2026-09-04	Developing	-20.1%
Rotation Down	2026-07-10	2026-07-17	New	+11.9%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-07-03	Developing	-23.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-22	Developing	-6.5%
Balance	2026-01-23	2026-04-17	Established	+23.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-17	2026-01-16	Established	+8.9%
Balance	2025-09-19	2025-10-10	New	-19.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-09-12	Extended	-21.6%
Balance	2025-01-03	2025-02-21	Developing	-9.8%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-16	2024-12-27	Established	-12.5%
Rotation Down	2024-07-12	2024-08-09	Developing	-8.5%
Balance	2024-06-14	2024-07-05	New	-1.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-01	2024-06-07	Established	+1.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing55

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution19

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -37.17
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -39.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -54.7%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 72th percentile99 in cohort

Test OXM trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.53×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore OXM Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 26.20falling

Slow Activity USD 34.67falling

Trend Reference USD 36.87-31.2% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 59.68-57.5% close margin

Structural low USD 24.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +15.4%

Annualized volatility +55.9%

From structural high -48.8%

From structural low +4.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	26	+1.0%-24.2% to +13.0%	+57.7%	+42.3%	-1.5%	+76.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	10	-1.8%-16.6% to +11.4%	+40.0%	+60.0%	-4.8%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-3.5%-26.7% to +10.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-15.0%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-6.1%-47.2% to +44.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-29.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

OXM Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map