Weekly structural research ยท TAI ยท Financial Services

1718 Stage Analysis

China Man-Made Fiber Corporation

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 10.75Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Deceleration ยท Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 29โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 17/100directional strength
Maturity 43/100lifecycle context
Confidence 78/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +38.2%TWD 7.78 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0210.759.36-1.8941419309Deceleration2917
2026-09-2510.509.26-3.5230115001Deceleration2815
2026-09-1810.609.14-1.1457864087Deceleration3017
2026-09-1110.409.03-1.1766229913Deceleration2315
2026-09-0410.608.91-0.47128687760Deceleration3321
2026-08-2810.758.791.0314383644Deceleration3119
2026-08-2110.708.672.5013402666Deceleration3029
2026-08-1410.958.553.2825021228Deceleration3232
2026-08-079.918.42-3.4227361571Upward Expansion4027
2026-07-318.738.31-13.0641341638Upward Expansion4444
2026-07-2411.008.257.5940873803Upward Expansion6877
2026-07-1713.658.1236.4110045979Upward Expansion7491
2026-07-1014.207.9034.060Upward Expansion9297
2026-07-0314.957.6637.30629526194Upward Expansion9899
2026-06-2611.157.397.90262605529Upward Expansion9196
2026-06-199.867.24-8.5740706148Upward Expansion8491
2026-06-129.207.15-10.75104167527Deceleration8072
2026-06-059.857.07-7.09322910841Deceleration7647
2026-05-296.626.95-37.5622999395Rotation Down-5954
2026-05-226.466.95-36.3714010380Rotation Down-3558
2026-05-156.366.94-36.4726221968Rotation Down-4162
2026-05-086.346.95-38.1123169223Balance-3655
2026-05-016.556.96-32.5214260613Balance-2832
2026-04-246.646.96-32.3825410414Balance416
2026-04-176.896.95-26.6229539269Upward Expansion2013
2026-04-107.176.94-21.4319481887Upward Expansion5029
2026-04-037.376.92-13.0330535467Upward Expansion5639
2026-03-277.546.90-13.1342584049Upward Expansion6161
2026-03-207.716.88-12.9665758768Upward Expansion7166
2026-03-137.506.84-15.5976321217Upward Expansion6659
2026-03-067.546.80-16.3045352588Upward Expansion7357
2026-02-277.146.76-25.3219156501Upward Expansion5633
2026-02-137.096.73-22.477195553Upward Expansion5432
2026-02-066.946.71-20.4015962746Upward Expansion5030
2026-01-307.036.68-20.6145061710Upward Expansion5029
2026-01-237.106.65-20.1120418460Upward Expansion5630
2026-01-167.136.62-18.9330109352Upward Expansion5829
2026-01-096.926.57-18.8625676582Upward Expansion4023
2026-01-026.756.55-18.8111019442Upward Expansion4124
2025-12-266.896.54-15.3510088654Upward Expansion5536
2025-12-197.076.54-10.9512996082Upward Expansion6554
2025-12-126.916.53-14.989768512Upward Expansion5957
2025-12-056.986.52-14.0521628565Upward Expansion6167
2025-11-286.986.50-13.6314524062Upward Expansion6366
2025-11-216.806.49-12.6516561980Upward Expansion5053
2025-11-147.096.47-12.6537667035Balance6547
2025-11-076.866.45-16.6372314252Balance4618
2025-10-316.256.42-26.0610904066Balance-1917
2025-10-246.376.45-23.288142728Balance-15
2025-10-176.396.48-22.9115291942Balance-67
2025-10-106.616.51-20.818165739Balance88
2025-10-036.536.53-20.858910265Balance19
2025-09-266.466.56-18.768034400Balance-2213
2025-09-196.456.59-19.498041370Rotation Up-99
2025-09-126.496.63-19.2811601997Rotation Up1723
2025-09-056.726.66-13.6410222471Balance2028
2025-08-296.636.68-14.3612771642Balance-221
2025-08-226.946.71-9.1143594456Balance1624
2025-08-156.536.73-16.879167123Downward Expansion-2219
2025-08-086.456.75-17.386749103Downward Expansion-3321
2025-08-016.336.78-17.4810113289Downward Expansion-3927
2025-07-256.336.81-17.819181235Downward Expansion-4435
2025-07-186.276.85-19.167482120Downward Expansion-5851
2025-07-116.136.90-19.254315521Downward Expansion-6277
2025-07-046.146.96-18.885235254Downward Expansion-6069
2025-06-276.157.03-19.249557978Downward Expansion-5966
2025-06-205.807.10-22.3213366388Downward Expansion-8069
2025-06-136.147.17-18.2712374538Downward Expansion-7144
2025-06-066.607.22-10.926108157Downward Expansion-3824
2025-05-306.667.26-9.216071431Downward Expansion-4026
2025-05-236.777.30-9.266096521Downward Expansion-4431
2025-05-166.707.34-11.347224741Downward Expansion-5946
2025-05-096.577.38-9.589802087Downward Expansion-6464
2025-05-026.557.44-9.659756757Downward Expansion-6784
2025-04-256.337.51-8.936980849Downward Expansion-7590
2025-04-186.237.57-8.4212121351Downward Expansion-8790
2025-04-116.217.64-9.5030376534Downward Expansion-9184
2025-04-047.097.69-5.4711388743Downward Expansion-6964
2025-03-287.097.73-6.9311830738Downward Expansion-7151
2025-03-217.317.76-6.8213547782Downward Expansion-5735
2025-03-147.287.79-6.3922667161Downward Expansion-6034
2025-03-077.527.83-6.1528710146Downward Expansion-3923
2025-02-287.397.86-10.0562749216Downward Expansion-4430
2025-02-217.447.90-12.4530080629Downward Expansion-4330
2025-02-147.567.94-9.3412820524Downward Expansion-4531
2025-02-077.377.98-13.2710812325Downward Expansion-6249
2025-01-247.478.03-12.794130686Downward Expansion-6364
2025-01-177.508.05-11.5812068765Downward Expansion-6679
2025-01-107.108.07-16.3010119863Downward Expansion-8292
2025-01-037.248.10-14.937136767Downward Expansion-7883
2024-12-277.488.12-14.167711714Downward Expansion-7072
2024-12-207.348.15-13.5015913654Balance-7658
2024-12-137.748.16-11.4512453133Balance-4823
2024-12-068.138.18-8.3110427508Balance-2820
2024-11-298.198.17-4.3416460524Rotation Down-3014
2024-11-228.128.16-8.2613384481Rotation Down-5233
2024-11-157.978.13-9.8415894740Rotation Down-3249
2024-11-087.718.11-16.308059160Rotation Down-3959
2024-11-017.818.09-12.995768353Rotation Down-3147
2024-10-257.818.08-15.718150796Deceleration-2235
2024-10-187.918.06-15.7910573578Deceleration48
2024-10-117.888.04-14.5821334085Deceleration1311
2024-10-048.388.02-7.318567531Deceleration3724
2024-09-278.587.99-7.6922522759Deceleration4318
2024-09-208.347.96-8.0329065133Deceleration1813
2024-09-138.187.94-8.6024291748Deceleration1115
2024-09-067.797.93-12.0313153452Deceleration-415
2024-08-308.177.92-11.6511531764Deceleration2721
2024-08-238.177.91-11.6814412758Deceleration3221
2024-08-168.267.90-11.9515847236Upward Expansion3821
2024-08-098.237.88-9.1327616433Upward Expansion4430
2024-08-028.457.87-7.8818041254Upward Expansion6154
2024-07-268.607.86-8.6912243948Upward Expansion6574
2024-07-198.677.85-11.2834308612Upward Expansion6777
2024-07-128.847.83-13.8669230115Upward Expansion7978
2024-07-058.837.82-12.9951921179Rotation Up8565
2024-06-288.157.79-18.2618487259Rotation Up3630
2024-06-218.077.79-20.3021459315Rotation Up3532
2024-06-147.867.80-20.269576579Rotation Up2027
2024-06-078.007.81-16.8918883764Rotation Up2552
2024-05-318.197.81-12.6724786195Rotation Up3852
2024-05-247.807.80-18.6917332410Rotation Up2136
2024-05-178.187.81-13.9727967450Downward Expansion4243
2024-05-107.937.80-14.8215850558Downward Expansion-216
2024-05-037.777.80-15.4820197373Downward Expansion-2720
2024-04-267.407.81-19.198022667Downward Expansion-5947
2024-04-197.237.82-19.2311466909Downward Expansion-6858
2024-04-127.357.84-23.1711460024Downward Expansion-6470
2024-04-057.297.86-22.874525310Downward Expansion-6582
2024-03-297.267.88-23.578006426Downward Expansion-7385
2024-03-227.277.91-23.7411105711Downward Expansion-7782
2024-03-157.297.93-21.9212365680Downward Expansion-8171
2024-03-087.477.95-20.9616824933Downward Expansion-7448
2024-03-017.757.98-14.9313456387Downward Expansion-5743
2024-02-237.757.99-15.2216201455Downward Expansion-6061
2024-02-167.818.00-13.788130417Downward Expansion-6369
2024-02-097.588.01-14.444091151Balance-7978
2024-02-027.728.02-13.147995462Balance-3650
2024-01-267.898.03-11.376380731Balance-2128
2024-01-197.768.04-11.7114389596Balance-2123
2024-01-128.038.06-8.209752881Rotation Up2914
2024-01-058.138.06-7.587073522Rotation Up5337
2023-12-298.178.07-9.769899393Rotation Up2938
2023-12-228.268.07-7.4916432458Rotation Up3544
2023-12-158.348.07-7.4323907087Rotation Up4649
2023-12-088.148.06-8.5415871377Rotation Up2036
2023-12-018.118.06-9.579863151Rotation Up1631
2023-11-248.148.07-8.748729474Balance2030
2023-11-178.188.07-8.1316089834Balance716
2023-11-108.008.07-7.624842687Balance-2516
2023-11-038.078.09-6.245136025Downward Expansion-2116
2023-10-278.008.10-5.305161407Downward Expansion-3517
2023-10-207.998.11-7.5215119097Downward Expansion-4125
2023-10-138.008.12-9.668135499Downward Expansion-5535
2023-10-067.848.13-10.515419612Downward Expansion-6247
2023-09-297.838.16-10.145604354Downward Expansion-6651
Price vs TrendAbove+14.8%
Trend directionRising+13.5%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+38.2%
Fair Value directionMoving away-60.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-1.9%
Relative strength directionWeakening-39.2%
Price momentumPositive+45.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.50ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

29 / ยฑ100

-4.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

17 /100

-3.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance57
Rotation Up23
Upward Expansion52
Deceleration85
Rotation Down25
Downward Expansion18

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 ยท 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 15%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 22%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 34%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Deceleration2026-08-142026-10-02Developing-1.8%
Upward Expansion2026-06-192026-08-07Developing+0.5%
Deceleration2026-06-052026-06-12New-6.6%
Rotation Down2026-05-152026-05-29New+4.1%
Balance2026-04-242026-05-08New-4.5%
Upward Expansion2025-11-212026-04-17Established+1.3%
Balance2025-09-262025-11-14Developing+9.8%
Rotation Up2025-09-122025-09-19New-0.6%
Balance2025-08-222025-09-05New-3.2%
Downward Expansion2024-12-272025-08-15Extended-12.7%
Balance2024-12-062024-12-20New-9.7%
Rotation Down2024-11-012024-11-29Developing+4.9%
Deceleration2024-08-232024-10-25Developing-4.4%
Upward Expansion2024-07-122024-08-16Developing-6.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing7
Stage 2 ยท Advancing86
Stage 3 ยท Distribution63
Stage 4 ยท Declining14

Legacy result: Stage 2 ยท Stage 2A ยท Early advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
31/100
Current Relative Strength
-1.89
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+45.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-3.0%
Financial Services regime cohort
50th percentile8 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.44ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.50ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TWD 10.60falling
Slow Activity TWD 10.22rising
Trend Reference TWD 9.36+14.8% close margin
Current Fair Value TWD 7.78+38.2% close margin
Structural low TWD 6.25shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +10.3%
Annualized volatility +89.6%
From structural high -28.1%
From structural low +74.2%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TWII Regime survived Read
Near term7-0.8%-5.2% to +51.8%+42.9%+42.9%+0.5%+57.1%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate3-0.6%-4.4% to +7.6%+33.3%+33.3%-4.0%+33.3%Too little matched history
Extended2-8.3%-9.5% to -7.0%+0.0%+0.0%-12.5%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle2-16.2%-18.8% to -13.5%+0.0%+0.0%-35.1%+0.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context