Weekly structural research · GER · Industrials

MLL Stage Analysis

Müller - Die lila Logistik SE

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 4.28Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^GDAXI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -65−100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 66/100directional strength
Maturity 41/100lifecycle context
Confidence 75/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -18.3%EUR 5.24 · weakening
Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values · 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-254.284.55-11.142859Downward Expansion-6566
2026-09-184.084.57-15.151762Downward Expansion-8088
2026-09-114.204.60-13.831495Downward Expansion-7084
2026-09-044.104.62-17.681529Downward Expansion-8790
2026-08-284.344.65-15.082096Downward Expansion-7673
2026-08-214.324.68-14.481887Downward Expansion-8047
2026-08-144.404.71-14.25249Downward Expansion-7334
2026-08-074.804.74-6.380Downward Expansion710
2026-07-314.704.73-6.05273Downward Expansion-4238
2026-07-244.484.74-8.71900Downward Expansion-7874
2026-07-174.584.76-5.740Downward Expansion-5951
2026-07-104.584.77-6.6526Downward Expansion-5832
2026-07-034.564.79-9.780Downward Expansion-6333
2026-06-264.634.81-4.471Downward Expansion-4222
2026-06-194.734.80-3.750Downward Expansion-3922
2026-06-124.614.79-4.970Downward Expansion-5537
2026-06-054.614.78-5.630Downward Expansion-5531
2026-05-294.614.78-7.07100Downward Expansion-5335
2026-05-224.614.78-6.491025Deceleration-5434
2026-05-154.734.77-0.551679Deceleration-1012
2026-05-084.574.77-5.380Deceleration-3323
2026-05-014.574.77-5.329548Deceleration-2316
2026-04-244.844.770.762531Deceleration-812
2026-04-174.684.76-4.93217Rotation Down-2331
2026-04-104.684.76-1.633419Rotation Down-2547
2026-04-034.564.76-1.736014Rotation Down-3456
2026-03-274.584.772.232166Rotation Down-3556
2026-03-204.624.792.811795Deceleration-3347
2026-03-134.764.801.220Deceleration-1925
2026-03-064.764.810.604579Upward Expansion1120
2026-02-274.784.82-5.67327Upward Expansion2218
2026-02-204.944.81-2.652000Upward Expansion3819
2026-02-134.944.80-1.6310Upward Expansion5233
2026-02-064.944.78-1.171000Upward Expansion5650
2026-01-305.154.783.42995Upward Expansion5946
2026-01-235.304.774.56650Upward Expansion7144
2026-01-165.204.740.653272Rotation Up6939
2026-01-094.744.73-8.561505Rotation Up5231
2026-01-024.884.74-3.752136Rotation Up2949
2025-12-265.054.74-0.27877Rotation Up2738
2025-12-194.984.74-1.942890Rotation Up2130
2025-12-125.054.73-0.682342Downward Expansion2627
2025-12-055.104.720.4114018Downward Expansion-87
2025-11-284.344.71-14.315884Downward Expansion-6844
2025-11-214.644.72-6.266959Downward Expansion-5640
2025-11-144.324.72-16.174842Downward Expansion-7568
2025-11-074.444.74-13.40238Downward Expansion-6853
2025-10-314.544.74-13.64680Downward Expansion-5838
2025-10-244.504.74-16.171089Rotation Down-6554
2025-10-174.604.74-13.781270Rotation Down-3049
2025-10-104.724.74-13.894641Rotation Down-2844
2025-10-034.484.74-19.58502Balance-3840
2025-09-264.564.73-16.891911Balance-1322
2025-09-194.564.74-17.382611Upward Expansion108
2025-09-124.624.76-17.472911Upward Expansion3636
2025-09-055.104.78-9.533Upward Expansion6872
2025-08-295.054.78-12.470Balance6362
2025-08-225.054.79-14.940Balance3532
2025-08-154.984.80-16.928563Balance2113
2025-08-084.904.81-18.30661Balance-2818
2025-08-014.704.83-19.85170Balance-5041
2025-07-254.504.85-26.521131Balance-6553
2025-07-184.564.87-26.5510588Balance-5234
2025-07-114.844.90-22.822044Balance-2618
2025-07-044.684.92-24.65624Balance-3923
2025-06-274.664.95-26.501215Balance-3415
2025-06-204.884.97-21.66245Balance-518
2025-06-134.884.99-22.941Balance-618
2025-06-064.905.00-25.911031Balance-617
2025-05-305.005.02-24.19541Downward Expansion-112
2025-05-234.805.04-26.690Downward Expansion-3118
2025-05-164.805.09-27.79772Downward Expansion-3519
2025-05-094.725.13-28.8267Downward Expansion-4026
2025-05-024.705.18-28.5080Downward Expansion-4637
2025-04-254.685.22-26.80160Downward Expansion-4942
2025-04-184.665.27-24.211172Downward Expansion-6355
2025-04-114.475.33-24.9660Downward Expansion-7769
2025-04-044.705.39-22.531614Downward Expansion-6867
2025-03-284.515.44-32.22844Downward Expansion-7488
2025-03-214.455.50-34.881047Downward Expansion-8694
2025-03-144.685.56-32.308094Downward Expansion-7689
2025-03-074.455.59-36.374152Downward Expansion-9798
2025-02-284.825.63-30.381967Downward Expansion-9494
2025-02-215.145.66-25.621527Downward Expansion-7584
2025-02-145.195.69-26.40477Downward Expansion-7278
2025-02-075.195.73-24.720Downward Expansion-7265
2025-01-315.295.76-23.950Downward Expansion-6350
2025-01-245.295.79-23.45172Downward Expansion-6144
2025-01-175.345.83-21.550Downward Expansion-5948
2025-01-105.295.86-20.1915Downward Expansion-6554
2025-01-035.445.89-17.15897Downward Expansion-6052
2024-12-275.245.92-20.771119Downward Expansion-7463
2024-12-205.245.95-20.681421Downward Expansion-7863
2024-12-135.495.99-19.48200Downward Expansion-6361
2024-12-065.496.01-19.60341Downward Expansion-6687
2024-11-295.496.04-16.69220Downward Expansion-6888
2024-11-225.396.06-17.083684Downward Expansion-7591
2024-11-155.146.09-20.711866Downward Expansion-9597
2024-11-085.536.11-15.155793Downward Expansion-8682
2024-11-015.686.12-13.473635Balance-7859
2024-10-256.076.13-8.890Balance-1212
2024-10-186.076.12-10.11295Balance910
2024-10-116.176.12-7.630Balance2110
2024-10-046.126.13-7.2310Rotation Up3319
2024-09-276.126.14-8.991090Rotation Up2225
2024-09-206.276.16-3.160Rotation Up927
2024-09-136.276.18-3.030Downward Expansion825
2024-09-066.326.19-0.081Downward Expansion-816
2024-08-306.276.22-3.912268Downward Expansion-2722
2024-08-236.176.24-4.02848Downward Expansion-5462
2024-08-165.786.24-8.554144Downward Expansion-6679
2024-08-095.536.26-9.451481Downward Expansion-8987
2024-08-025.886.27-3.611Balance-7771
2024-07-266.026.27-5.36788Balance-5738
2024-07-196.226.25-1.040Balance-2313
2024-07-126.226.24-4.182Balance34
2024-07-056.226.20-2.93600Balance3324
2024-06-286.376.170.401536Deceleration4725
2024-06-216.176.13-2.521014Deceleration1910
2024-06-146.376.111.17836Deceleration5028
2024-06-076.176.09-4.961755Deceleration3223
2024-05-316.226.07-4.131075Deceleration4031
2024-05-246.326.05-3.8520Deceleration4336
2024-05-176.326.03-4.110Deceleration4336
2024-05-106.276.00-5.271Deceleration2721
2024-05-036.225.96-2.110Deceleration1217
2024-04-266.225.92-3.123341Deceleration-221
2024-04-195.785.89-8.05863Deceleration-3041
2024-04-125.685.86-10.911640Deceleration-2037
2024-04-055.985.85-8.0820Deceleration827
2024-03-295.985.82-10.12851Deceleration1428
2024-03-225.985.79-9.072265Deceleration2726
2024-03-156.325.76-3.056381Upward Expansion4740
2024-03-086.425.71-1.442823Upward Expansion6259
2024-03-016.815.674.582811Upward Expansion6776
2024-02-236.815.646.130Upward Expansion6886
2024-02-166.815.607.707324Upward Expansion7189
2024-02-097.155.5614.236700Upward Expansion9497
2024-02-026.665.526.463609Upward Expansion9096
2024-01-266.475.503.002489Upward Expansion9294
2024-01-196.225.491.41941Rotation Up8583
2024-01-125.935.49-4.401101Rotation Up4656
2024-01-055.685.50-7.832699Balance3131
2023-12-295.535.51-11.213079Balance-117
2023-12-225.785.52-7.303351Rotation Up-515
2023-12-155.245.53-16.361391Rotation Up-4637
2023-12-085.195.55-17.512685Rotation Up-4324
2023-12-015.245.57-15.211678Rotation Up-1730
2023-11-245.585.59-7.812588Rotation Up2655
2023-11-175.785.61-4.01542Rotation Up3948
2023-11-105.635.62-2.34300Downward Expansion932
2023-11-035.635.66-2.27893Downward Expansion520
2023-10-275.535.69-0.951916Downward Expansion-2720
2023-10-205.445.71-3.521556Downward Expansion-4638
2023-10-135.095.76-12.100Downward Expansion-6457
2023-10-065.095.81-12.721906Downward Expansion-6457
Price vs TrendBelow-6.0%
Trend directionFalling-4.4%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-18.3%
Fair Value directionMoving away-5.4%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.1%
Relative strength directionWeakening-6.7%
Price momentumNegative-6.6%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.07×
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-65 / ±100

+10.4 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

66 /100

-7.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance15
Rotation Up10
Upward Expansion13
Deceleration42
Rotation Down76
Downward Expansion88

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 43%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-05-292026-09-25Established-7.2%
Deceleration2026-04-242026-05-22Developing-4.7%
Rotation Down2026-03-272026-04-17New+2.2%
Deceleration2026-03-132026-03-20New-2.9%
Upward Expansion2026-01-232026-03-06Developing-10.2%
Rotation Up2025-12-192026-01-16Developing+4.4%
Downward Expansion2025-10-312025-12-12Developing+11.2%
Rotation Down2025-10-102025-10-24New-4.7%
Balance2025-09-262025-10-03New-1.8%
Upward Expansion2025-09-052025-09-19New-10.6%
Balance2025-06-062025-08-29Established+3.1%
Downward Expansion2024-11-082025-05-30Extended-9.7%
Balance2024-10-112024-11-01New-7.9%
Rotation Up2024-09-202024-10-04New-2.3%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 · Basing52
Stage 2 · Advancing3
Stage 3 · Distribution30
Stage 4 · Declining97

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
80/100
Current Relative Strength
-11.14
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-6.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-20.5%
Industrials regime cohort
24th percentile41 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume3.60×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.07×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity EUR 4.19falling
Slow Activity EUR 4.48falling
Trend Reference EUR 4.55-6.0% close margin
Current Fair Value EUR 5.24-18.3% close margin
Structural low EUR 3.96shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.5%
Annualized volatility +22.8%
From structural high -23.6%
From structural low +8.1%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^GDAXI Regime survived Read
Near term32-0.2%-12.5% to +40.7%+50.0%+50.0%-0.3%+81.2%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate12-0.9%-9.1% to +32.2%+41.7%+50.0%-1.9%+58.3%Usable descriptive sample
Extended6+7.7%-6.2% to +27.9%+66.7%+33.3%-1.0%+16.7%Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle4-2.1%-19.8% to +21.9%+50.0%+50.0%-15.7%+75.0%Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context