Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

HOMB Stage Analysis

Home BancShares Inc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 29.19Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 32−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 50/100lifecycle context

Confidence 76/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +11.6%USD 26.15 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	29.19	28.25	-4.75	7210183	Deceleration	32	19
2026-09-18	29.79	28.18	-1.80	10289909	Deceleration	37	22
2026-09-11	29.97	28.16	-1.51	5306547	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-09-04	30.15	28.13	-1.94	6997080	Upward Expansion	47	36
2026-08-28	29.62	28.13	-3.85	6243753	Upward Expansion	60	46
2026-08-21	30.27	28.09	-1.60	6716932	Upward Expansion	65	60
2026-08-14	31.39	28.01	0.34	6184892	Upward Expansion	76	85
2026-08-07	30.58	27.92	-2.22	6644351	Upward Expansion	68	83
2026-07-31	30.84	27.83	1.92	8264334	Upward Expansion	77	86
2026-07-24	30.75	27.72	2.63	9917201	Rotation Up	82	85
2026-07-17	30.61	27.63	1.44	12796516	Rotation Up	60	74
2026-07-10	28.51	27.54	-7.26	8628916	Rotation Up	26	54
2026-07-03	28.68	27.53	-5.80	8775967	Rotation Up	30	56
2026-06-26	29.30	27.51	-2.06	13514039	Rotation Up	41	52
2026-06-19	27.65	27.45	-10.00	8783938	Balance	15	21
2026-06-12	28.25	27.45	-7.57	8015654	Balance	6	14
2026-06-05	27.12	27.40	-11.06	6955267	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-05-29	26.76	27.39	-14.83	5752717	Downward Expansion	-51	30
2026-05-22	26.61	27.37	-14.54	6948168	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2026-05-15	25.68	27.38	-17.26	7878369	Downward Expansion	-65	52
2026-05-08	26.54	27.41	-14.83	6163979	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-05-01	26.52	27.39	-13.42	7013156	Balance	-42	23
2026-04-24	26.25	27.42	-14.00	11199169	Balance	-20	14
2026-04-17	26.67	27.49	-12.62	9613633	Balance	-16	13
2026-04-10	27.76	27.55	-5.42	5951446	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2026-04-03	26.95	27.60	-5.10	4565252	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2026-03-27	26.22	27.67	-4.83	6638186	Rotation Down	-53	63
2026-03-20	25.91	27.77	-8.38	8306817	Rotation Down	-41	42
2026-03-13	26.10	27.88	-9.71	7827640	Upward Expansion	-39	34
2026-03-06	26.74	27.93	-9.26	8432988	Upward Expansion	-10	12
2026-02-27	27.24	27.93	-9.77	7516396	Upward Expansion	35	27
2026-02-20	29.16	27.92	-4.27	4664051	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-02-13	29.11	27.88	-3.59	5513685	Upward Expansion	60	58
2026-02-06	30.13	27.88	-1.73	6281518	Balance	77	64
2026-01-30	28.47	27.83	-7.59	8478914	Balance	18	23
2026-01-23	27.92	27.84	-9.28	4942241	Balance	9	9
2026-01-16	28.50	27.84	-8.01	8447368	Balance	21	16
2026-01-09	28.02	27.78	-10.19	5300935	Balance	12	10
2026-01-02	27.49	27.74	-10.69	4517317	Balance	9	12
2025-12-26	27.93	27.74	-10.41	3324607	Balance	14	19
2025-12-19	28.02	27.73	-9.07	9508581	Balance	14	20
2025-12-12	28.30	27.70	-8.26	8809304	Balance	9	17
2025-12-05	27.96	27.71	-10.14	4658695	Balance	-18	16
2025-11-28	27.64	27.69	-11.21	3344630	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2025-11-21	27.47	27.69	-8.89	5191115	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-11-14	26.88	27.66	-12.93	3732731	Rotation Down	-56	39
2025-11-07	26.86	27.62	-13.26	4544537	Rotation Down	-32	46
2025-10-31	26.11	27.53	-17.34	5149148	Rotation Down	-41	59
2025-10-24	26.75	27.47	-14.96	5414781	Rotation Down	-22	43
2025-10-17	26.54	27.48	-14.20	8137126	Balance	-24	30
2025-10-10	26.12	27.50	-14.23	5669042	Balance	-28	26
2025-10-03	27.47	27.54	-12.16	4024602	Upward Expansion	23	12
2025-09-26	28.12	27.55	-9.19	5018347	Upward Expansion	51	29
2025-09-19	28.62	27.58	-7.95	7862357	Upward Expansion	55	54
2025-09-12	29.20	27.57	-5.07	4961975	Upward Expansion	59	63
2025-09-05	29.19	27.56	-3.68	3337436	Upward Expansion	59	58
2025-08-29	29.09	27.57	-3.78	4284277	Balance	58	41
2025-08-22	29.27	27.57	-3.30	3858573	Balance	49	23
2025-08-15	27.58	27.55	-8.71	3965919	Balance	-4	13
2025-08-08	26.87	27.60	-10.32	3838942	Balance	-9	8
2025-08-01	26.79	27.58	-8.52	4802208	Rotation Up	8	11
2025-07-25	27.83	27.58	-7.45	5467786	Rotation Up	29	48
2025-07-18	29.31	27.56	-1.32	7922446	Rotation Up	41	56
2025-07-11	28.49	27.48	-3.48	4847371	Balance	20	36
2025-07-04	28.94	27.50	-2.11	4053571	Balance	23	20
2025-06-27	27.72	27.53	-4.40	6660144	Balance	-22	11
2025-06-20	26.82	27.62	-4.19	4083058	Balance	-32	15
2025-06-13	26.77	27.74	-4.34	2955607	Balance	-20	8
2025-06-06	27.61	27.83	-1.52	3227007	Balance	-9	13
2025-05-30	27.46	27.86	-0.22	2661384	Balance	-18	18
2025-05-23	27.26	27.80	0.96	3114657	Balance	-17	22
2025-05-16	28.46	27.75	2.92	3688543	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2025-05-09	27.56	27.64	5.09	2964710	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2025-05-02	27.53	27.58	4.68	4229452	Downward Expansion	-49	31
2025-04-25	26.70	27.50	4.59	5012657	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2025-04-18	25.51	27.47	4.66	4719254	Rotation Down	-64	74
2025-04-11	24.32	27.49	-1.51	7639975	Rotation Down	-52	69
2025-04-04	24.22	27.53	3.75	6156554	Rotation Down	-55	63
2025-03-28	27.13	27.57	5.88	4090258	Balance	-19	25
2025-03-21	27.00	27.55	3.98	8827657	Balance	-2	14
2025-03-14	27.36	27.54	6.16	4976261	Balance	15	12
2025-03-07	27.84	27.46	5.81	5829665	Upward Expansion	30	15
2025-02-28	28.88	27.35	6.53	4199359	Upward Expansion	52	35
2025-02-21	28.40	27.23	4.02	4335748	Upward Expansion	53	46
2025-02-14	28.89	27.18	4.28	4345550	Upward Expansion	54	55
2025-02-07	29.54	27.07	8.31	4907979	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-01-31	28.92	26.87	6.05	5617408	Deceleration	53	30
2025-01-24	28.80	26.65	4.70	5540567	Deceleration	41	18
2025-01-17	29.12	26.44	7.71	7605112	Deceleration	40	24
2025-01-10	26.09	26.20	-0.65	4732171	Deceleration	6	23
2025-01-03	27.06	26.05	1.00	2336495	Deceleration	28	26
2024-12-27	27.22	25.87	0.90	2187695	Upward Expansion	39	23
2024-12-20	26.91	25.71	0.23	8461901	Upward Expansion	58	44
2024-12-13	29.07	25.56	6.08	3511640	Upward Expansion	65	79
2024-12-06	29.71	25.37	7.66	3268739	Upward Expansion	68	87
2024-11-29	30.42	25.15	11.25	3526058	Upward Expansion	80	92
2024-11-22	30.33	24.91	12.36	4178750	Upward Expansion	86	91
2024-11-15	29.54	24.66	11.52	6581138	Upward Expansion	84	81
2024-11-08	28.41	24.43	5.17	6600165	Deceleration	77	57
2024-11-01	25.85	24.20	0.42	4440761	Deceleration	40	24
2024-10-25	25.58	24.08	-2.09	5472126	Deceleration	35	19
2024-10-18	25.41	23.99	-3.74	5435844	Deceleration	35	20
2024-10-11	25.65	23.88	-2.05	4012476	Deceleration	38	24
2024-10-04	25.24	23.75	-2.59	3672519	Upward Expansion	40	25
2024-09-27	25.54	23.66	-1.27	3594022	Upward Expansion	44	31
2024-09-20	26.11	23.54	1.46	6797012	Upward Expansion	60	43
2024-09-13	25.64	23.40	1.04	3742585	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-09-06	25.46	23.28	4.36	2589002	Upward Expansion	59	49
2024-08-30	26.50	23.17	4.15	2791313	Upward Expansion	71	55
2024-08-23	26.55	23.01	4.62	3320960	Upward Expansion	75	56
2024-08-16	25.18	22.89	0.65	4276509	Upward Expansion	62	69
2024-08-09	24.58	22.81	2.06	4993290	Upward Expansion	64	80
2024-08-02	25.16	22.72	4.33	7324018	Upward Expansion	66	83
2024-07-26	26.98	22.64	9.36	7611365	Upward Expansion	92	92
2024-07-19	25.64	22.53	3.08	9659129	Upward Expansion	85	74
2024-07-12	23.47	22.46	-7.57	4887360	Balance	23	16
2024-07-05	22.21	22.45	-11.91	2406344	Balance	-36	21
2024-06-28	22.64	22.44	-8.82	5678720	Balance	-42	31
2024-06-21	21.86	22.40	-12.22	4157235	Balance	-52	38
2024-06-14	21.56	22.36	-13.14	4247348	Balance	-31	27
2024-06-07	21.74	22.33	-11.33	4910251	Balance	-7	9
2024-05-31	22.22	22.25	-8.60	3532172	Upward Expansion	30	17
2024-05-24	22.43	22.17	-8.43	3759667	Upward Expansion	52	42
2024-05-17	23.35	22.05	-4.90	3105606	Upward Expansion	61	60
2024-05-10	23.30	21.90	-3.69	4793917	Balance	60	51
2024-05-03	23.09	21.77	-2.76	3833464	Balance	56	31
2024-04-26	22.90	21.66	-3.04	4587392	Balance	51	23
2024-04-19	22.52	21.54	-2.27	6052134	Balance	36	18
2024-04-12	21.51	21.43	-9.65	4368006	Balance	11	8
2024-04-05	22.29	21.40	-7.87	3880996	Deceleration	34	19
2024-03-29	23.05	21.33	-5.79	4422506	Deceleration	48	26
2024-03-22	21.94	21.26	-10.17	4673758	Deceleration	20	11
2024-03-15	21.84	21.20	-8.90	5660405	Deceleration	21	11
2024-03-08	22.47	21.17	-6.60	4967699	Deceleration	28	14
2024-03-01	21.89	21.14	-9.53	3819474	Deceleration	30	16
2024-02-23	21.97	21.16	-8.79	3739094	Deceleration	33	20
2024-02-16	22.20	21.16	-6.76	5569795	Deceleration	36	20
2024-02-09	22.05	21.14	-8.10	5393795	Deceleration	39	23
2024-02-02	21.60	21.12	-9.12	5597239	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-01-26	22.93	21.09	-2.60	4407199	Upward Expansion	52	36
2024-01-19	22.90	21.03	-1.89	4746945	Upward Expansion	63	46
2024-01-12	21.99	20.94	-4.83	3996826	Upward Expansion	62	58
2024-01-05	22.64	20.92	-0.47	4509205	Upward Expansion	66	80
2023-12-29	23.57	20.88	1.80	3185289	Rotation Up	76	85
2023-12-22	23.61	20.80	2.12	6187958	Rotation Up	56	75
2023-12-15	23.26	20.69	1.33	10260204	Rotation Up	46	65
2023-12-08	21.97	20.56	-2.12	4629981	Balance	35	38
2023-12-01	21.45	20.43	-4.50	4372581	Balance	25	26
2023-11-24	20.50	20.35	-8.34	2346418	Downward Expansion	-21	19
2023-11-17	20.77	20.33	-6.68	4972484	Downward Expansion	-26	15
2023-11-10	19.17	20.29	-12.26	3687383	Downward Expansion	-59	38
2023-11-03	20.03	20.28	-7.63	4771493	Rotation Down	-57	39
2023-10-27	18.60	20.25	-9.73	5914247	Rotation Down	-46	54
2023-10-20	19.00	20.29	-10.58	7150913	Rotation Down	-42	51
2023-10-13	19.36	20.32	-11.50	3502783	Rotation Down	-38	53
2023-10-06	19.80	20.32	-9.64	4895615	Rotation Down	-22	46

Price vs TrendAbove+3.3%

Trend directionRising+2.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+11.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-2.7%

Price momentumPositive+11.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

32 / ±100

-27.6 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

19 /100

-26.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

HOMB Directional State ↗ HOMB Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance44

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion53

Deceleration93

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 29%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 10%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-2.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-09-11	Developing	-2.8%
Rotation Up	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	+5.0%
Balance	2026-06-12	2026-06-19	New	-2.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-06-05	Developing	+2.2%
Balance	2026-04-17	2026-05-01	New	-0.6%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-03	2026-04-10	New	+3.0%
Rotation Down	2026-03-20	2026-03-27	New	+1.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	Developing	-10.4%
Balance	2025-12-05	2026-02-06	Developing	+7.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	+0.6%
Rotation Down	2025-10-24	2025-11-14	New	+0.5%
Balance	2025-10-10	2025-10-17	New	+1.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-05	2025-10-03	Developing	-5.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing66

Stage 3 · Distribution68

Stage 4 · Declining34

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 25/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.75
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +11.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.6%
Financial Services regime cohort: 58th percentile85 in cohort

Test HOMB trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore HOMB Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 29.66falling

Slow Activity USD 29.09rising

Trend Reference USD 28.25+3.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 26.15+11.6% close margin

Structural low USD 25.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.1%

Annualized volatility +20.1%

From structural high -7.5%

From structural low +14.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+3.6%-8.3% to +10.7%	+72.7%	+72.7%	+1.8%	+54.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-0.3%-6.8% to +5.6%	+40.0%	+40.0%	+1.2%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-4.3%-12.9% to +11.5%	+25.0%	+25.0%	+2.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+17.3%+0.7% to +34.0%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+14.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

HOMB Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map