Weekly structural research ยท NYSE ยท Industrials

ULS Stage Analysis

UL Solutions Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 69.99Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: wide and expanding.
Direction -67โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 84/100directional strength
Maturity 24/100lifecycle context
Confidence 96/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Wideexpanding separation
Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +6.7%USD 65.59 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 131 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-10-0969.9985.28-22.906851165Downward Expansion-6784
2026-10-0265.9985.71-26.725782909Downward Expansion-7287
2026-09-2566.0586.21-27.095179028Downward Expansion-7789
2026-09-1864.0386.80-28.657111828Downward Expansion-8792
2026-09-1171.2587.33-20.921970330Downward Expansion-7684
2026-09-0473.8387.28-18.802572135Rotation Down-7082
2026-08-2874.2987.20-18.252150706Rotation Down-4873
2026-08-2174.9187.05-17.202521594Rotation Down-5169
2026-08-1477.3186.92-15.774114692Rotation Down-4161
2026-08-0778.0686.84-14.899843397Deceleration-4149
2026-07-3191.4687.043.164028677Deceleration520
2026-07-2485.4686.68-2.463072817Deceleration-519
2026-07-1787.7686.49-0.343519576Deceleration1513
2026-07-1087.2786.12-2.346269111Deceleration2115
2026-07-0396.9985.8010.035119858Deceleration3926
2026-06-2699.0585.1115.1110108798Deceleration4830
2026-06-1991.3484.843.945691553Upward Expansion4432
2026-06-1296.9384.6411.383257911Upward Expansion6051
2026-06-0596.8184.2812.093262246Upward Expansion6367
2026-05-2999.5083.9012.542935887Upward Expansion6679
2026-05-22102.7083.1618.033252326Upward Expansion8085
2026-05-1598.8682.3914.863114435Upward Expansion7476
2026-05-08100.2981.6016.995031080Upward Expansion8479
2026-05-0191.4780.659.412591432Upward Expansion7069
2026-04-2490.0680.009.122973469Upward Expansion7065
2026-04-1791.5979.3011.963191351Upward Expansion7962
2026-04-1084.2078.517.993040246Upward Expansion5941
2026-04-0384.4877.9212.584465840Upward Expansion6248
2026-03-2783.7977.2215.905098191Upward Expansion6155
2026-03-2082.5876.5212.285302686Balance5747
2026-03-1383.1075.9311.563407351Balance5141
2026-03-0680.9575.387.642634504Balance4232
2026-02-2783.7074.899.623466822Rotation Down4422
2026-02-2079.9174.484.725983577Rotation Down-624
2026-02-1369.8074.15-7.064101826Rotation Down-2957
2026-02-0671.2674.15-6.176416472Deceleration-2748
2026-01-3070.0174.14-7.794235994Deceleration-2928
2026-01-2370.9774.14-5.964505390Deceleration-610
2026-01-1674.7674.17-1.025999526Deceleration2315
2026-01-0984.1174.0111.397071644Deceleration4927
2026-01-0280.6573.559.215355194Deceleration3323
2025-12-2679.7173.227.473610564Deceleration3328
2025-12-1976.7172.935.4818774869Upward Expansion4124
2025-12-1277.6372.747.4010329875Upward Expansion4939
2025-12-0576.3672.565.6014125416Upward Expansion6454
2025-11-2890.9272.3326.711740269Upward Expansion8693
2025-11-2185.3171.2824.273095777Upward Expansion7588
2025-11-1486.2470.3424.112139630Upward Expansion8592
2025-11-0785.2669.3123.863685071Upward Expansion8989
2025-10-3177.5168.3311.654114497Upward Expansion7177
2025-10-2479.6367.5516.031848212Upward Expansion8580
2025-10-1775.0566.7312.032691989Upward Expansion7464
2025-10-1071.83โ€”โ€”2113041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0371.88โ€”โ€”3765179Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2669.12โ€”โ€”2641712Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1967.79โ€”โ€”3541567Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1266.44โ€”โ€”4454709Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0563.56โ€”โ€”3449606Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2962.88โ€”โ€”3209261Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2264.92โ€”โ€”4221717Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1566.65โ€”โ€”6597047Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0866.20โ€”โ€”8294139Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0171.42โ€”โ€”3539830Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2569.86โ€”โ€”2278206Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1869.76โ€”โ€”2627449Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1170.94โ€”โ€”3729220Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0470.21โ€”โ€”4529459Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2771.69โ€”โ€”4200091Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2070.14โ€”โ€”2873929Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1370.19โ€”โ€”2446631Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0670.71โ€”โ€”3136135Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3071.02โ€”โ€”2184857Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2371.18โ€”โ€”2446227Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1672.15โ€”โ€”5031292Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0969.58โ€”โ€”7410876Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0259.34โ€”โ€”7767571Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2557.16โ€”โ€”4335412Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1855.21โ€”โ€”3865710Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1155.98โ€”โ€”8399264Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0453.96โ€”โ€”8381510Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2855.22โ€”โ€”4577698Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2153.05โ€”โ€”3490879Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1451.80โ€”โ€”2419598Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0752.38โ€”โ€”2393578Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2852.74โ€”โ€”2535553Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2152.43โ€”โ€”2831509Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1456.08โ€”โ€”2342318Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0753.29โ€”โ€”1947850Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3153.32โ€”โ€”1954532Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2452.69โ€”โ€”1565813Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1751.39โ€”โ€”1864925Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1048.76โ€”โ€”2842888Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0348.77โ€”โ€”3774503Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2749.86โ€”โ€”2502446Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2050.34โ€”โ€”4079753Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1350.29โ€”โ€”2745389Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0652.77โ€”โ€”2495716Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2953.15โ€”โ€”2195825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2253.33โ€”โ€”3365226Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1549.31โ€”โ€”3228045Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0850.68โ€”โ€”5991360Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0150.92โ€”โ€”2269613Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2552.27โ€”โ€”1678007Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1852.45โ€”โ€”2669555Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1151.80โ€”โ€”3162178Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0450.03โ€”โ€”6819222Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2748.85โ€”โ€”4792584Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2047.86โ€”โ€”4561955Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1348.20โ€”โ€”9064790Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0647.94โ€”โ€”9288397Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3053.82โ€”โ€”1743470Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2353.77โ€”โ€”1078159Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1651.24โ€”โ€”1018456Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0949.44โ€”โ€”2904208Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0250.15โ€”โ€”2825315Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2644.91โ€”โ€”1585661Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1943.53โ€”โ€”1749453Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1243.11โ€”โ€”3011526Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0541.43โ€”โ€”4638707Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2841.54โ€”โ€”4266353Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2141.20โ€”โ€”4934683Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1440.76โ€”โ€”2078002Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0738.27โ€”โ€”1503686Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3137.85โ€”โ€”2297653Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2441.21โ€”โ€”5196142Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1736.51โ€”โ€”1886343Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1036.00โ€”โ€”1699177Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0334.74โ€”โ€”2087916Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2633.39โ€”โ€”2299166Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1933.22โ€”โ€”10781050Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1234.29โ€”โ€”14953825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-17.9%
Trend directionFalling-2.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+6.7%
Fair Value directionMoving away-28.6%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.9%
Relative strength directionWeakening-20.6%
Price momentumNegative-16.9%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.50ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-67 / ยฑ100

+8.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

84 /100

+0.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance8
Rotation Up17
Upward Expansion21
Deceleration38
Rotation Down70
Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-04-12 to 2026-10-09 ยท 52 classified observations out of 131 shown.

Balance 6%Upward Expansion 44%Deceleration 27%Rotation Down 14%Downward Expansion 10%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-09-112026-10-09Developing-1.8%
Rotation Down2026-08-142026-09-04New-4.5%
Deceleration2026-06-262026-08-07Developing-21.2%
Upward Expansion2026-03-272026-06-19Established+9.0%
Balance2026-03-062026-03-20New+2.0%
Rotation Down2026-02-132026-02-27New+19.9%
Deceleration2025-12-262026-02-06Developing-10.6%
Upward Expansion2025-10-172025-12-19Developing+2.2%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing41
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution49
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
96/100
Current Relative Strength
-22.90
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-16.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-31.8%
Industrials regime cohort
100th percentile101 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.44ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.50ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity USD 67.42falling
Slow Activity USD 81.04falling
Trend Reference USD 85.28-17.9% close margin
Current Fair Value USD 65.59+6.7% close margin
Structural low USD 63.17shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.7%
Annualized volatility +42.1%
From structural high -34.8%
From structural low +10.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs SPY Regime survived Read
Near term1-1.8%-1.8% to -1.8%+0.0%+100.0%-3.9%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context