Weekly structural research ยท TAI ยท Industrials

7631 Stage Analysis

GENII IDEAS CO LTD

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close TWD 138.50Tenure NewBenchmark ^TWII
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Direction 23โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 13/100directional strength
Maturity 17/100lifecycle context
Confidence 66/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Upstructural direction
Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation
Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context +24.6%TWD 111.13 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 142 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25138.50131.77-21.97261053Balance2313
2026-09-18138.00131.12-21.96237069Upward Expansion4621
2026-09-11138.00130.49-21.37216053Upward Expansion5030
2026-09-04146.00129.86-18.65285747Upward Expansion5637
2026-08-28145.00129.01-19.87201165Deceleration5431
2026-08-21147.50128.19-17.5758000Deceleration4724
2026-08-14145.00127.48-21.05143021Deceleration4124
2026-08-07131.50127.54-26.5814098Deceleration3325
2026-07-31135.00127.36-23.4345004Upward Expansion4327
2026-07-24139.00127.03-22.88132020Upward Expansion6158
2026-07-17138.50126.70-22.0439200Upward Expansion6477
2026-07-10153.50126.20-19.370Upward Expansion6879
2026-07-03160.50125.28-18.912454266Upward Expansion8280
2026-06-26162.40124.14-14.511558995Upward Expansion8774
2026-06-19130.22122.89-34.68215028Balance3022
2026-06-12123.78122.78-35.18276013Balance05
2026-06-05125.27122.85-36.1671156Balance25
2026-05-29123.78123.04-36.89167178Balance-13
2026-05-22124.77123.28-33.1695009Balance108
2026-05-15121.80123.53-33.42373138Rotation Up813
2026-05-08122.30123.95-34.30427280Rotation Up1123
2026-05-01123.78124.37-29.48155494Downward Expansion819
2026-04-24131.21124.94-25.80500233Downward Expansion-1016
2026-04-17135.66125.34-19.39971065Downward Expansion-128
2026-04-10109.92125.59-32.41318100Downward Expansion-6241
2026-04-03110.41126.71-26.74343104Downward Expansion-6341
2026-03-27113.38127.69-26.53255000Downward Expansion-6043
2026-03-20114.13128.49-27.3391000Downward Expansion-6044
2026-03-13115.60129.54-26.3298050Downward Expansion-5954
2026-03-06108.72129.90-31.28295010Downward Expansion-7972
2026-02-27119.05130.19-28.7981045Downward Expansion-6164
2026-02-13119.05130.28-25.1785012Downward Expansion-6064
2026-02-06119.05130.19-21.0181000Balance-6555
2026-01-30120.52130.04-20.72111000Balance-6026
2026-01-23120.52129.87-20.4586331Balance-2313
2026-01-16125.94129.65-15.42536251Deceleration-913
2026-01-09147.09129.212.47749012Deceleration5134
2026-01-02125.94127.65-9.0777000Deceleration-2620
2025-12-26125.21126.60-6.8851005Deceleration-2921
2025-12-19129.12125.56-0.86136000Deceleration112
2025-12-12123.25124.44-6.7693011Deceleration-1339
2025-12-05126.19123.50-3.669000Deceleration-335
2025-11-28126.19122.46-2.2641000Deceleration-123
2025-11-21124.72121.561.2352000Deceleration-521
2025-11-14127.17120.64-0.0946000Deceleration417
2025-11-07125.70119.61-1.7328000Deceleration716
2025-10-31131.08118.460.5571000Deceleration3022
2025-10-24131.08117.613.4617000Deceleration3424
2025-10-17132.06116.955.5075000Deceleration4127
2025-10-10134.50115.887.9521000Upward Expansion4739
2025-10-03134.99114.5011.01109000Upward Expansion6151
2025-09-26140.86113.0421.7333000Upward Expansion6661
2025-09-19143.15111.2924.4548018Upward Expansion6964
2025-09-12143.15109.7525.7886062Upward Expansion7065
2025-09-05143.63108.0332.18143014Upward Expansion7478
2025-08-29139.74106.1431.19184140Upward Expansion7485
2025-08-22137.30104.3832.59191058Upward Expansion7678
2025-08-15145.58102.7338.51247031Upward Expansion9486
2025-08-08126.59100.8923.1392002Upward Expansion8267
2025-08-01117.3499.5817.50111190Upward Expansion6673
2025-07-25121.7298.5822.73101025Upward Expansion8289
2025-07-18116.3797.5717.87197000Upward Expansion7388
2025-07-11114.4296.7019.6258000Upward Expansion7086
2025-07-04115.39โ€”โ€”128000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-27113.93โ€”โ€”317003Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-20112.79โ€”โ€”381096Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-13100.26โ€”โ€”156000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0694.47โ€”โ€”79000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3094.09โ€”โ€”36000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2395.44โ€”โ€”27001Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1695.24โ€”โ€”57007Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0994.86โ€”โ€”72000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0299.29โ€”โ€”63026Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2596.88โ€”โ€”77000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1896.40โ€”โ€”126001Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1191.10โ€”โ€”279010Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-04105.56โ€”โ€”144899Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28111.25โ€”โ€”309773Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21100.22โ€”โ€”490877Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1493.03โ€”โ€”645542Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0791.02โ€”โ€”226044Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2888.62โ€”โ€”192989Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2196.87โ€”โ€”442095Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1491.40โ€”โ€”145279Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0787.08โ€”โ€”10667Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2486.80โ€”โ€”5706Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1787.76โ€”โ€”18840Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1090.44โ€”โ€”18551Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0387.28โ€”โ€”25459Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2787.37โ€”โ€”24622Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2091.50โ€”โ€”15320Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1390.15โ€”โ€”27775Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0693.03โ€”โ€”12568Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2991.59โ€”โ€”32165Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2289.48โ€”โ€”500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1589.48โ€”โ€”11070Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0885.07โ€”โ€”113322Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-0193.51โ€”โ€”39561Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2589.19โ€”โ€”130330Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1891.11โ€”โ€”1050666Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1185.74โ€”โ€”17033Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0487.28โ€”โ€”13945Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2791.02โ€”โ€”9436Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2091.11โ€”โ€”18216Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1388.23โ€”โ€”11925Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0685.84โ€”โ€”13730Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3083.46โ€”โ€”11073Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2383.84โ€”โ€”20360Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1684.70โ€”โ€”31233Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0984.70โ€”โ€”70569Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0293.33โ€”โ€”35923Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2691.52โ€”โ€”13016Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1992.06โ€”โ€”63763Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1297.05โ€”โ€”60398Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0599.36โ€”โ€”142230Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2896.58โ€”โ€”37740Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2199.36โ€”โ€”34508Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1498.43โ€”โ€”36434Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0798.89โ€”โ€”33818Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-31101.21โ€”โ€”83508Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2499.82โ€”โ€”72033Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-17100.74โ€”โ€”83726Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-10101.67โ€”โ€”93582Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-03112.30โ€”โ€”98935Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-26125.24โ€”โ€”81170Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-19115.07โ€”โ€”153015Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-12106.29โ€”โ€”111837Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-05105.83โ€”โ€”115041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2994.74โ€”โ€”2041Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-2294.74โ€”โ€”22276Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-1595.66โ€”โ€”45859Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-08100.28โ€”โ€”46825Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-0199.82โ€”โ€”32223Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-2399.36โ€”โ€”64564Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-1692.89โ€”โ€”9179Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0992.06โ€”โ€”4944Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-0294.74โ€”โ€”45111Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-2694.27โ€”โ€”5109Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1993.35โ€”โ€”8924Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-1297.05โ€”โ€”13006Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-05105.36โ€”โ€”15094Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-29105.83โ€”โ€”11000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendAbove+5.1%
Trend directionRising+4.0%
Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+24.6%
Fair Value directionMoving away-25.8%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-22.0%
Relative strength directionWeakening-7.5%
Price momentumPositive+22.2%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.30ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

23 / ยฑ100

-31.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

13 /100

-18.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance55
Rotation Up30
Upward Expansion52
Deceleration76
Rotation Down25
Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-12-29 to 2026-09-25 ยท 63 classified observations out of 142 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 29%Downward Expansion 18%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-09-252026-09-25New+0.0%
Upward Expansion2026-09-042026-09-18New-5.5%
Deceleration2026-08-072026-08-28New+10.3%
Upward Expansion2026-06-262026-07-31Developing-16.9%
Balance2026-05-222026-06-19Developing+4.4%
Rotation Up2026-05-082026-05-15New-0.4%
Downward Expansion2026-02-132026-05-01Developing+4.0%
Balance2026-01-232026-02-06New-1.2%
Deceleration2025-10-172026-01-16Established-4.6%
Upward Expansion2025-07-112025-10-10Established+17.6%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing17
Stage 2 ยท Advancing44
Stage 3 ยท Distribution68
Stage 4 ยท Declining36

Legacy result: Stage 3 ยท Stage 3B ยท Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
1/100
Current Relative Strength
-21.97
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
+22.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-22.9%
Industrials regime cohort
38th percentile81 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.76ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.30ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity TWD 139.70falling
Slow Activity TWD 137.58rising
Trend Reference TWD 131.77+5.1% close margin
Current Fair Value TWD 111.13+24.6% close margin
Structural low TWD 106.45shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +7.2%
Annualized volatility +50.6%
From structural high -22.4%
From structural low +32.8%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^TWII Regime survived Read
Near term3+4.4%-1.2% to +6.4%+66.7%+66.7%-5.6%+33.3%Too little matched history
Intermediate2+10.5%+2.7% to +18.2%+100.0%+100.0%-3.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+12.0%+12.0% to +12.0%+100.0%+100.0%-22.9%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context