Orchid Island Capital Inc.
Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.
Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.
| Week | Close | Trend | Relative Strength | Volume | Regime | Direction | Energy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | 5.08 | 6.47 | -30.50 | 42925293 | Downward Expansion | -89 | 96 |
| 2026-10-02 | 5.11 | 6.53 | -29.73 | 42911005 | Downward Expansion | -95 | 97 |
| 2026-09-25 | 5.61 | 6.59 | -23.51 | 25424055 | Downward Expansion | -90 | 88 |
| 2026-09-18 | 5.93 | 6.64 | -18.40 | 29927179 | Downward Expansion | -81 | 74 |
| 2026-09-11 | 6.22 | 6.68 | -14.80 | 16943777 | Downward Expansion | -70 | 44 |
| 2026-09-04 | 6.43 | 6.71 | -12.75 | 21280248 | Downward Expansion | -56 | 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | 6.47 | 6.74 | -12.36 | 23892777 | Downward Expansion | -54 | 30 |
| 2026-08-21 | 6.60 | 6.77 | -10.39 | 15031018 | Downward Expansion | -51 | 37 |
| 2026-08-14 | 6.55 | 6.80 | -12.43 | 17526663 | Downward Expansion | -54 | 50 |
| 2026-08-07 | 6.46 | 6.84 | -13.68 | 26223279 | Downward Expansion | -56 | 51 |
| 2026-07-31 | 6.39 | 6.86 | -11.83 | 32960395 | Downward Expansion | -63 | 45 |
| 2026-07-24 | 6.44 | 6.87 | -10.40 | 25614289 | Downward Expansion | -50 | 23 |
| 2026-07-17 | 6.75 | 6.88 | -6.92 | 24515284 | Downward Expansion | -26 | 19 |
| 2026-07-10 | 6.71 | 6.88 | -8.97 | 20721951 | Downward Expansion | -31 | 18 |
| 2026-07-03 | 6.81 | 6.87 | -6.39 | 25140265 | Downward Expansion | -34 | 20 |
| 2026-06-26 | 6.75 | 6.86 | -5.41 | 27910450 | Downward Expansion | -52 | 38 |
| 2026-06-19 | 6.61 | 6.86 | -9.65 | 21443456 | Downward Expansion | -57 | 54 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6.43 | 6.85 | -11.44 | 24809560 | Downward Expansion | -66 | 62 |
| 2026-06-05 | 6.56 | 6.86 | -9.37 | 22523621 | Balance | -59 | 53 |
| 2026-05-29 | 6.68 | 6.86 | -10.04 | 22620262 | Balance | -23 | 33 |
| 2026-05-22 | 6.57 | 6.85 | -10.47 | 21666868 | Balance | -32 | 32 |
| 2026-05-15 | 6.66 | 6.86 | -8.52 | 17964420 | Balance | -25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 6.85 | 6.85 | -5.95 | 23259782 | Balance | 7 | 5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 6.88 | 6.83 | -3.53 | 26511149 | Deceleration | 25 | 15 |
| 2026-04-24 | 6.85 | 6.81 | -3.13 | 33482262 | Deceleration | 23 | 13 |
| 2026-04-17 | 6.84 | 6.78 | -2.95 | 47186156 | Deceleration | 11 | 10 |
| 2026-04-10 | 7.00 | 6.76 | 3.66 | 21648346 | Deceleration | 9 | 17 |
| 2026-04-03 | 6.85 | 6.73 | 5.38 | 29587067 | Deceleration | -15 | 23 |
| 2026-03-27 | 6.56 | 6.71 | 4.40 | 33528679 | Deceleration | -24 | 28 |
| 2026-03-20 | 6.52 | 6.69 | 1.21 | 41690528 | Deceleration | -8 | 17 |
| 2026-03-13 | 6.90 | 6.68 | 4.92 | 32443536 | Deceleration | 30 | 20 |
| 2026-03-06 | 6.95 | 6.65 | 3.94 | 30426617 | Deceleration | 34 | 21 |
| 2026-02-27 | 7.11 | 6.62 | 3.85 | 39559807 | Deceleration | 39 | 25 |
| 2026-02-20 | 7.13 | 6.59 | 3.40 | 21342755 | Upward Expansion | 45 | 34 |
| 2026-02-13 | 7.08 | 6.56 | 3.62 | 29151888 | Upward Expansion | 60 | 51 |
| 2026-02-06 | 7.15 | 6.52 | 3.21 | 43458184 | Upward Expansion | 65 | 80 |
| 2026-01-30 | 7.33 | 6.48 | 5.49 | 44178230 | Upward Expansion | 67 | 86 |
| 2026-01-23 | 7.56 | 6.43 | 9.07 | 26487499 | Upward Expansion | 84 | 93 |
| 2026-01-16 | 7.71 | 6.38 | 11.15 | 30968223 | Upward Expansion | 93 | 91 |
| 2026-01-09 | 7.04 | 6.31 | 1.21 | 36377608 | Upward Expansion | 79 | 69 |
| 2026-01-02 | 6.82 | 6.27 | -0.31 | 30992602 | Upward Expansion | 70 | 47 |
| 2025-12-26 | 6.67 | 6.23 | -3.68 | 16214105 | Upward Expansion | 60 | 41 |
| 2025-12-19 | 6.68 | 6.20 | -2.11 | 38771086 | Upward Expansion | 62 | 42 |
| 2025-12-12 | 6.49 | 6.16 | -4.86 | 27715688 | Upward Expansion | 54 | 36 |
| 2025-12-05 | 6.69 | 6.14 | -2.60 | 27863525 | Upward Expansion | 66 | 44 |
| 2025-11-28 | 6.58 | 6.11 | -3.89 | 27875624 | Upward Expansion | 62 | 43 |
| 2025-11-21 | 6.45 | 6.08 | -2.40 | 23106271 | Upward Expansion | 57 | 43 |
| 2025-11-14 | 6.49 | 6.06 | -3.77 | 23013241 | Upward Expansion | 63 | 65 |
| 2025-11-07 | 6.63 | 6.01 | -1.56 | 29895532 | Upward Expansion | 72 | 78 |
| 2025-10-31 | 6.48 | 5.96 | -5.39 | 47124867 | Upward Expansion | 63 | 73 |
| 2025-10-24 | 6.73 | 5.92 | -1.02 | 22894968 | Upward Expansion | 85 | 83 |
| 2025-10-17 | 6.46 | 5.89 | -3.22 | 22477686 | Upward Expansion | 73 | 59 |
| 2025-10-10 | 6.24 | 5.89 | -4.99 | 22564112 | Upward Expansion | 57 | 36 |
| 2025-10-03 | 6.28 | 5.90 | -6.70 | 34405590 | Upward Expansion | 64 | 37 |
| 2025-09-26 | 6.11 | 5.91 | -8.40 | 25130737 | Upward Expansion | 51 | 32 |
| 2025-09-19 | 6.06 | 5.93 | -9.52 | 25566469 | Upward Expansion | 53 | 35 |
| 2025-09-12 | 6.14 | 5.96 | -7.49 | 18271734 | Rotation Up | 30 | 39 |
| 2025-09-05 | 6.23 | 5.98 | -4.97 | 20117215 | Rotation Up | 41 | 42 |
| 2025-08-29 | 6.12 | 5.99 | -6.61 | 26196872 | Rotation Up | 33 | 30 |
| 2025-08-22 | 6.07 | 6.00 | -7.48 | 19988782 | Rotation Up | 28 | 27 |
| 2025-08-15 | 6.09 | 5.99 | -7.14 | 15126944 | Rotation Up | 24 | 37 |
| 2025-08-08 | 6.08 | 6.00 | -6.54 | 18869423 | Rotation Up | 24 | 40 |
| 2025-08-01 | 5.99 | 5.99 | -5.92 | 32263509 | Rotation Up | 19 | 42 |
| 2025-07-25 | 6.21 | 5.99 | -5.08 | 22085084 | Balance | 36 | 52 |
| 2025-07-18 | 5.91 | 5.98 | -8.35 | 16379852 | Balance | -7 | 21 |
| 2025-07-11 | 5.99 | 5.98 | -6.84 | 16706408 | Balance | -2 | 13 |
| 2025-07-04 | 6.00 | 5.98 | -7.07 | 14386930 | Balance | -5 | 10 |
| 2025-06-27 | 5.79 | 5.98 | -9.06 | 23152902 | Downward Expansion | -30 | 15 |
| 2025-06-20 | 5.80 | 5.98 | -6.01 | 15768210 | Downward Expansion | -33 | 16 |
| 2025-06-13 | 5.80 | 5.98 | -6.34 | 15288684 | Downward Expansion | -36 | 21 |
| 2025-06-06 | 5.71 | 5.98 | -8.19 | 16135167 | Downward Expansion | -37 | 22 |
| 2025-05-30 | 5.62 | 5.99 | -8.38 | 20699522 | Downward Expansion | -38 | 21 |
| 2025-05-23 | 5.60 | 5.99 | -7.44 | 17051779 | Downward Expansion | -40 | 21 |
| 2025-05-16 | 5.80 | 5.99 | -6.78 | 18986415 | Downward Expansion | -38 | 22 |
| 2025-05-09 | 5.79 | 6.00 | -2.25 | 13839908 | Rotation Down | -55 | 35 |
| 2025-05-02 | 5.66 | 5.99 | -5.01 | 22454759 | Rotation Down | -36 | 56 |
| 2025-04-25 | 5.79 | 5.99 | -0.26 | 19460621 | Rotation Down | -37 | 65 |
| 2025-04-18 | 5.21 | 6.00 | -6.32 | 14997549 | Rotation Down | -36 | 70 |
| 2025-04-11 | 4.88 | 6.02 | -13.77 | 40392188 | Rotation Down | -52 | 55 |
| 2025-04-04 | 5.28 | 6.06 | -1.65 | 23757669 | Rotation Down | -35 | 37 |
| 2025-03-28 | 6.00 | 6.08 | 1.39 | 16200530 | Deceleration | 17 | 17 |
| 2025-03-21 | 6.43 | 6.07 | 6.92 | 12474418 | Upward Expansion | 46 | 36 |
| 2025-03-14 | 6.51 | 6.05 | 8.77 | 16742620 | Upward Expansion | 61 | 52 |
| 2025-03-07 | 6.63 | 6.03 | 8.41 | 17006994 | Upward Expansion | 65 | 79 |
| 2025-02-28 | 6.70 | 6.00 | 6.12 | 20780184 | Upward Expansion | 67 | 85 |
| 2025-02-21 | 6.89 | 5.96 | 8.14 | 13003961 | Upward Expansion | 87 | 93 |
| 2025-02-14 | 6.77 | 5.92 | 4.70 | 9986835 | Upward Expansion | 88 | 87 |
| 2025-02-07 | 6.40 | 5.89 | 0.34 | 13388226 | Upward Expansion | 75 | 74 |
| 2025-01-31 | 6.45 | 5.88 | 0.98 | 23088845 | Upward Expansion | 79 | 64 |
| 2025-01-24 | 6.04 | 5.86 | -6.53 | 9195751 | Upward Expansion | 53 | 37 |
| 2025-01-17 | 6.10 | 5.85 | -4.21 | 12886182 | Balance | 59 | 34 |
| 2025-01-10 | 5.90 | 5.84 | -4.79 | 8105566 | Balance | 48 | 26 |
| 2025-01-03 | 6.04 | 5.84 | -4.77 | 10989888 | Balance | 59 | 47 |
| 2024-12-27 | 5.91 | 5.83 | -7.50 | 6804368 | Balance | 51 | 44 |
| 2024-12-20 | 5.95 | 5.83 | -6.57 | 16995987 | Balance | 51 | 44 |
| 2024-12-13 | 6.03 | 5.82 | -7.27 | 7600634 | Balance | 62 | 43 |
| 2024-12-06 | 5.95 | 5.82 | -9.31 | 8181952 | Balance | 8 | 10 |
| 2024-11-29 | 5.84 | 5.81 | -10.32 | 7854254 | Balance | -21 | 12 |
| 2024-11-22 | 5.83 | 5.81 | -9.54 | 6145936 | Balance | -26 | 14 |
| 2024-11-15 | 5.77 | 5.81 | -9.14 | 7295256 | Balance | -43 | 27 |
| 2024-11-08 | 5.84 | 5.80 | -9.94 | 9476549 | Balance | -13 | 14 |
| 2024-11-01 | 5.55 | 5.79 | -10.32 | 12391845 | Balance | -37 | 36 |
| 2024-10-25 | 5.75 | 5.80 | -8.47 | 11536361 | Balance | -1 | 9 |
| 2024-10-18 | 5.93 | 5.81 | -6.33 | 8106531 | Balance | 36 | 18 |
| 2024-10-11 | 5.66 | 5.81 | -9.69 | 7188291 | Balance | -4 | 7 |
| 2024-10-04 | 5.69 | 5.81 | -8.32 | 10108113 | Balance | 31 | 16 |
| 2024-09-27 | 5.91 | 5.80 | -4.76 | 15059878 | Balance | 52 | 45 |
| 2024-09-20 | 5.98 | 5.80 | -3.39 | 17199819 | Balance | 60 | 48 |
| 2024-09-13 | 5.96 | 5.78 | -2.74 | 9155473 | Balance | 57 | 36 |
| 2024-09-06 | 5.85 | 5.77 | -1.21 | 5851493 | Balance | 34 | 18 |
| 2024-08-30 | 5.88 | 5.75 | -5.12 | 10033039 | Balance | 34 | 13 |
| 2024-08-23 | 5.83 | 5.74 | -6.05 | 5574469 | Balance | 16 | 13 |
| 2024-08-16 | 5.74 | 5.73 | -6.52 | 5291409 | Balance | 10 | 15 |
| 2024-08-09 | 5.71 | 5.72 | -3.71 | 10232525 | Balance | 9 | 10 |
| 2024-08-02 | 5.67 | 5.71 | -4.85 | 12697456 | Upward Expansion | 19 | 11 |
| 2024-07-26 | 5.73 | 5.70 | -6.27 | 11253256 | Upward Expansion | 41 | 25 |
| 2024-07-19 | 5.90 | 5.69 | -4.90 | 13226292 | Upward Expansion | 52 | 41 |
| 2024-07-12 | 6.04 | 5.67 | -5.07 | 11120566 | Upward Expansion | 65 | 41 |
| 2024-07-05 | 5.79 | 5.65 | -8.53 | 7372587 | Upward Expansion | 35 | 18 |
| 2024-06-28 | 5.80 | 5.62 | -7.01 | 8997767 | Upward Expansion | 35 | 19 |
| 2024-06-21 | 5.80 | 5.59 | -7.64 | 5144222 | Upward Expansion | 36 | 20 |
| 2024-06-14 | 5.80 | 5.55 | -7.46 | 5985223 | Upward Expansion | 47 | 26 |
| 2024-06-07 | 5.76 | 5.51 | -6.93 | 6680839 | Upward Expansion | 51 | 31 |
| 2024-05-31 | 5.83 | 5.46 | -5.06 | 6876617 | Upward Expansion | 55 | 35 |
| 2024-05-24 | 5.80 | 5.41 | -6.42 | 6087148 | Upward Expansion | 54 | 36 |
| 2024-05-17 | 5.89 | 5.34 | -5.43 | 11153496 | Deceleration | 63 | 41 |
| 2024-05-10 | 5.77 | 5.27 | -6.12 | 9190197 | Deceleration | 43 | 26 |
| 2024-05-03 | 5.78 | 5.23 | -4.57 | 6660891 | Deceleration | 43 | 23 |
| 2024-04-26 | 5.82 | 5.20 | -3.81 | 6048041 | Deceleration | 47 | 26 |
| 2024-04-19 | 5.51 | 5.17 | -6.95 | 5260127 | Upward Expansion | 42 | 28 |
| 2024-04-12 | 5.60 | 5.17 | -8.95 | 5808875 | Upward Expansion | 58 | 44 |
| 2024-04-05 | 5.80 | 5.17 | -7.55 | 4183526 | Upward Expansion | 62 | 63 |
| 2024-03-29 | 5.96 | 5.16 | -6.54 | 7025088 | Upward Expansion | 74 | 73 |
| 2024-03-22 | 5.89 | 5.16 | -7.73 | 6107326 | Upward Expansion | 74 | 70 |
| 2024-03-15 | 5.67 | 5.15 | -9.61 | 4225171 | Upward Expansion | 62 | 59 |
| 2024-03-08 | 5.67 | 5.14 | -10.08 | 4362526 | Upward Expansion | 63 | 46 |
| 2024-03-01 | 5.70 | 5.15 | -10.33 | 5149771 | Rotation Up | 67 | 42 |
| 2024-02-23 | 5.55 | 5.16 | -12.38 | 3281425 | Rotation Up | 33 | 28 |
| 2024-02-16 | 5.42 | 5.18 | -13.57 | 5316118 | Rotation Up | 20 | 24 |
| 2024-02-09 | 5.35 | 5.21 | -15.72 | 6011992 | Rotation Up | 30 | 31 |
| 2024-02-02 | 5.57 | 5.23 | -11.68 | 11252468 | Rotation Up | 39 | 46 |
| 2024-01-26 | 5.52 | 5.23 | -11.79 | 5596016 | Rotation Up | 29 | 44 |
| 2024-01-19 | 5.42 | 5.25 | -13.30 | 4574863 | Rotation Up | 26 | 54 |
| 2024-01-12 | 5.63 | 5.26 | -9.53 | 5441560 | Rotation Up | 38 | 62 |
| 2024-01-05 | 5.31 | 5.27 | -13.63 | 3666555 | Rotation Up | 24 | 39 |
| 2023-12-29 | 5.39 | 5.28 | -14.14 | 5424553 | Balance | 28 | 39 |
| 2023-12-22 | 5.42 | 5.30 | -13.74 | 6463965 | Balance | 12 | 30 |
| 2023-12-15 | 5.30 | 5.30 | -15.45 | 12979369 | Downward Expansion | -7 | 23 |
| 2023-12-08 | 4.98 | 5.31 | -18.98 | 4759641 | Downward Expansion | -33 | 30 |
| 2023-12-01 | 4.85 | 5.33 | -21.33 | 6228673 | Downward Expansion | -41 | 31 |
| 2023-11-24 | 4.59 | 5.36 | -25.37 | 3168353 | Downward Expansion | -49 | 46 |
| 2023-11-17 | 4.51 | 5.40 | -26.38 | 5135140 | Downward Expansion | -64 | 64 |
| 2023-11-10 | 4.28 | 5.46 | -28.78 | 5081227 | Downward Expansion | -67 | 86 |
| 2023-11-03 | 4.28 | 5.51 | -28.36 | 7193261 | Downward Expansion | -68 | 88 |
| 2023-10-27 | 3.67 | 5.58 | -35.24 | 9040693 | Downward Expansion | -94 | 98 |
| 2023-10-20 | 3.93 | 5.65 | -32.89 | 7090434 | Downward Expansion | -94 | 97 |
Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.
-18.8 points since 2026-09-11
+51.6 points since 2026-09-11
Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.
The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.
2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.
| Regime | Recognized | Last observation | Tenure | Move inside regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downward Expansion | 2026-06-12 | 2026-10-09 | Established | -21.0% |
| Balance | 2026-05-08 | 2026-06-05 | Developing | -4.3% |
| Deceleration | 2026-02-27 | 2026-05-01 | Developing | -3.2% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-09-19 | 2026-02-20 | Established | +17.5% |
| Rotation Up | 2025-08-01 | 2025-09-12 | Developing | +2.6% |
| Balance | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-25 | New | +3.3% |
| Downward Expansion | 2025-05-16 | 2025-06-27 | Developing | -0.2% |
| Rotation Down | 2025-04-04 | 2025-05-09 | Developing | +9.6% |
| Deceleration | 2025-03-28 | 2025-03-28 | New | +0.0% |
| Upward Expansion | 2025-01-24 | 2025-03-21 | Developing | +6.5% |
| Balance | 2024-08-09 | 2025-01-17 | Established | +6.8% |
| Upward Expansion | 2024-05-24 | 2024-08-02 | Developing | -2.2% |
| Deceleration | 2024-04-26 | 2024-05-17 | New | +1.2% |
| Upward Expansion | 2024-03-08 | 2024-04-19 | Developing | -2.9% |
Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.
The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.
Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.
Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.
Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.
Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.
Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.
Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.
Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.
Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.
Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.
| Outcome horizon | Samples | Median move | Positive periods | Directional follow-through | Median excess vs SPY | Regime survived | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near term | 25 | +0.5%-20.6% to +16.3% | +52.0% | +48.0% | +0.0% | +80.0% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Intermediate | 9 | +1.1%-23.4% to +14.2% | +55.6% | +44.4% | -4.0% | +44.4% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Extended | 5 | -0.5%-16.2% to +11.8% | +40.0% | +60.0% | -5.9% | +20.0% | Usable descriptive sample |
| Full cycle | 4 | +8.6%-23.1% to +14.9% | +75.0% | +25.0% | -16.4% | +25.0% | Too little matched history |
Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.
Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.
Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.
Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.
Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.
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