Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

EQBK Stage Analysis

Equity Bancshares, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 47.73Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 4−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 12/100directional strength

Maturity 41/100lifecycle context

Confidence 83/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance -16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +20.1%USD 39.73 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	47.73	47.51	-4.55	593411	Deceleration	4	12
2026-09-25	48.14	47.40	-3.91	519409	Deceleration	23	14
2026-09-18	48.80	47.29	-1.32	566276	Deceleration	35	17
2026-09-11	49.82	47.20	0.67	379688	Upward Expansion	40	22
2026-09-04	50.73	47.08	1.80	558770	Upward Expansion	48	31
2026-08-28	49.39	46.96	-0.76	428845	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-08-21	49.86	46.85	0.70	523739	Upward Expansion	61	45
2026-08-14	51.64	46.68	2.91	389403	Upward Expansion	69	62
2026-08-07	50.94	46.52	1.83	448153	Upward Expansion	68	63
2026-07-31	50.68	46.34	5.11	553647	Upward Expansion	69	60
2026-07-24	50.30	46.14	5.76	649728	Upward Expansion	68	63
2026-07-17	50.44	45.97	5.68	1047165	Upward Expansion	74	70
2026-07-10	47.90	45.81	-1.06	712989	Upward Expansion	59	58
2026-07-03	49.23	45.76	2.91	651523	Upward Expansion	71	71
2026-06-26	49.43	45.60	5.47	1258018	Upward Expansion	78	71
2026-06-19	46.43	45.39	-3.26	579454	Upward Expansion	54	54
2026-06-12	48.21	45.25	1.33	459183	Deceleration	72	62
2026-06-05	46.47	45.03	-1.77	471943	Deceleration	54	25
2026-05-29	45.93	44.85	-5.42	304843	Deceleration	48	20
2026-05-22	45.80	44.66	-4.45	331503	Deceleration	38	16
2026-05-15	44.11	44.51	-7.33	445103	Deceleration	29	12
2026-05-08	45.53	44.37	-4.38	421785	Deceleration	47	33
2026-05-01	45.77	44.19	-1.85	496232	Deceleration	40	28
2026-04-24	45.34	44.00	-2.03	515972	Deceleration	35	25
2026-04-17	45.99	43.84	-0.25	733159	Deceleration	38	22
2026-04-10	46.36	43.69	4.96	603880	Deceleration	36	15
2026-04-03	44.70	43.51	4.93	432936	Deceleration	7	15
2026-03-27	43.53	43.41	5.61	539066	Deceleration	6	19
2026-03-20	42.74	43.29	1.31	799293	Upward Expansion	-1	16
2026-03-13	43.46	43.23	1.09	620254	Upward Expansion	19	14
2026-03-06	44.39	43.08	1.55	610501	Upward Expansion	35	17
2026-02-27	44.70	42.82	0.15	661867	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-02-20	46.27	42.54	2.96	434428	Upward Expansion	55	37
2026-02-13	45.98	42.26	3.36	486563	Upward Expansion	55	37
2026-02-06	47.30	42.04	4.85	482292	Upward Expansion	67	45
2026-01-30	45.93	41.87	1.49	455754	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-01-23	45.00	41.77	-0.34	538088	Upward Expansion	56	39
2026-01-16	46.73	41.62	2.97	326990	Upward Expansion	70	50
2026-01-09	45.56	41.32	-0.09	354560	Upward Expansion	62	47
2026-01-02	44.68	41.08	-0.51	326720	Upward Expansion	62	61
2025-12-26	45.28	40.89	-0.35	223658	Upward Expansion	65	74
2025-12-19	45.41	40.65	1.21	529654	Upward Expansion	70	77
2025-12-12	46.44	40.41	3.51	394246	Upward Expansion	84	81
2025-12-05	44.52	40.20	-1.58	302962	Upward Expansion	77	73
2025-11-28	43.19	40.01	-4.54	207711	Upward Expansion	68	57
2025-11-21	42.19	39.87	-3.74	502319	Upward Expansion	58	41
2025-11-14	41.68	39.71	-7.19	308776	Upward Expansion	55	33
2025-11-07	40.90	39.52	-9.26	293629	Upward Expansion	46	22
2025-10-31	40.18	39.31	-12.69	482234	Upward Expansion	31	15
2025-10-24	41.53	39.15	-9.49	443149	Upward Expansion	43	20
2025-10-17	39.65	39.06	-12.18	809001	Upward Expansion	31	15
2025-10-10	40.17	39.02	-9.84	449987	Upward Expansion	38	21
2025-10-03	40.07	38.98	-12.48	321906	Upward Expansion	51	30
2025-09-26	40.57	38.95	-10.58	274703	Upward Expansion	56	53
2025-09-19	41.46	39.00	-9.10	628461	Upward Expansion	61	58
2025-09-12	41.09	39.02	-9.04	442656	Balance	58	50
2025-09-05	41.68	39.07	-6.52	466903	Balance	63	40
2025-08-29	40.03	39.12	-10.06	297938	Balance	11	9
2025-08-22	40.80	39.21	-8.60	500177	Balance	-16	16
2025-08-15	39.01	39.27	-12.55	508440	Balance	-39	34
2025-08-08	36.66	39.38	-17.18	450513	Balance	-60	44
2025-08-01	36.11	39.46	-16.65	463218	Balance	-52	29
2025-07-25	37.89	39.62	-14.90	331855	Rotation Up	-2	21
2025-07-18	39.34	39.74	-10.72	841921	Rotation Up	18	45
2025-07-11	42.40	39.81	-3.39	421468	Rotation Up	32	55
2025-07-04	42.79	39.91	-2.67	320203	Balance	34	38
2025-06-27	40.59	40.03	-5.90	454709	Balance	-2	4
2025-06-20	37.82	40.24	-9.21	418303	Balance	-37	21
2025-06-13	38.21	40.58	-8.35	252933	Balance	-24	15
2025-06-06	38.92	40.84	-6.88	270044	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2025-05-30	38.32	41.05	-6.72	158206	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2025-05-23	38.14	41.16	-5.44	212994	Downward Expansion	-29	23
2025-05-16	40.15	41.25	-2.91	228286	Downward Expansion	-29	24
2025-05-09	38.90	41.34	-0.88	211835	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2025-05-02	38.81	41.39	-1.42	254148	Downward Expansion	-60	46
2025-04-25	37.53	41.37	-1.79	311733	Downward Expansion	-65	72
2025-04-18	35.87	41.44	-1.72	346028	Downward Expansion	-69	82
2025-04-11	34.73	41.60	-6.06	546091	Downward Expansion	-82	85
2025-04-04	35.30	41.75	0.95	476080	Downward Expansion	-85	83
2025-03-28	38.71	41.82	0.86	242405	Rotation Down	-68	74
2025-03-21	38.50	41.85	-1.01	675571	Rotation Down	-44	61
2025-03-14	39.13	41.89	1.29	282392	Deceleration	-38	48
2025-03-07	39.00	41.83	-1.09	327801	Deceleration	-29	28
2025-02-28	42.09	41.73	3.65	339982	Deceleration	23	12
2025-02-21	42.07	41.55	2.93	149577	Deceleration	26	15
2025-02-14	42.50	41.49	2.57	184854	Deceleration	28	17
2025-02-07	43.35	41.37	6.31	485847	Deceleration	29	17
2025-01-31	42.74	41.12	4.90	337756	Deceleration	9	10
2025-01-24	42.49	40.79	3.46	393713	Deceleration	5	15
2025-01-17	42.28	40.52	4.79	360209	Deceleration	3	19
2025-01-10	39.02	40.19	-0.29	278715	Deceleration	-11	26
2025-01-03	40.95	39.96	2.62	208533	Deceleration	14	21
2024-12-27	41.70	39.67	3.87	233313	Upward Expansion	32	21
2024-12-20	41.34	39.37	3.65	705306	Upward Expansion	41	32
2024-12-13	45.41	39.09	11.76	243730	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-12-06	46.43	38.71	13.82	486329	Upward Expansion	66	78
2024-11-29	46.88	38.27	16.20	166688	Upward Expansion	72	85
2024-11-22	47.94	37.81	20.98	181294	Upward Expansion	86	89
2024-11-15	46.12	37.29	19.14	227441	Upward Expansion	83	83
2024-11-08	45.20	36.80	14.96	392344	Upward Expansion	83	78
2024-11-01	41.41	36.33	10.95	160931	Upward Expansion	63	62
2024-10-25	41.03	36.04	8.85	155387	Upward Expansion	61	46
2024-10-18	42.80	35.78	12.97	272606	Upward Expansion	75	48
2024-10-11	40.47	35.42	8.33	125187	Upward Expansion	63	40
2024-10-04	38.23	35.09	4.01	151030	Upward Expansion	55	37
2024-09-27	39.49	34.84	8.07	145709	Upward Expansion	59	41
2024-09-20	40.61	34.53	12.24	405841	Upward Expansion	68	47
2024-09-13	39.25	34.21	10.63	164171	Upward Expansion	62	46
2024-09-06	37.50	33.96	10.50	127985	Upward Expansion	56	42
2024-08-30	39.70	33.76	12.71	114165	Upward Expansion	68	48
2024-08-23	39.67	33.47	13.44	175608	Upward Expansion	70	46
2024-08-16	37.22	33.23	8.47	149001	Upward Expansion	59	46
2024-08-09	35.95	33.04	9.31	246163	Upward Expansion	61	69
2024-08-02	36.61	32.90	11.65	247596	Upward Expansion	65	81
2024-07-26	40.50	32.78	21.20	330000	Upward Expansion	90	93
2024-07-19	38.72	32.52	15.52	400655	Upward Expansion	87	83
2024-07-12	35.83	32.33	5.26	295238	Balance	74	63
2024-07-05	32.98	32.19	-1.80	111581	Balance	45	24
2024-06-28	34.26	32.12	4.25	396550	Balance	59	27
2024-06-21	32.39	31.83	-1.09	178542	Balance	30	15
2024-06-14	32.15	31.61	-1.01	164809	Upward Expansion	33	14
2024-06-07	32.46	31.42	1.68	147308	Upward Expansion	49	27
2024-05-31	32.69	31.15	3.86	129296	Upward Expansion	54	38
2024-05-24	32.83	30.90	4.18	148452	Upward Expansion	56	51
2024-05-17	33.89	30.57	7.87	196699	Upward Expansion	66	57
2024-05-10	33.35	30.20	8.32	142760	Upward Expansion	61	36
2024-05-03	33.02	29.85	9.76	175045	Upward Expansion	59	30
2024-04-26	32.31	29.54	8.54	252935	Upward Expansion	52	27
2024-04-19	31.44	29.24	8.74	253209	Upward Expansion	49	31
2024-04-12	31.28	28.94	5.11	295334	Upward Expansion	52	36
2024-04-05	32.50	28.67	7.76	297673	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-03-29	33.34	28.37	9.71	232376	Deceleration	68	42
2024-03-22	31.95	28.08	5.75	260253	Deceleration	37	21
2024-03-15	30.50	27.81	3.26	256320	Deceleration	33	20
2024-03-08	30.88	27.61	4.45	169201	Deceleration	36	23
2024-03-01	30.27	27.44	1.85	187620	Deceleration	39	25
2024-02-23	30.82	27.31	4.35	199915	Deceleration	43	30
2024-02-16	31.91	27.16	9.40	337391	Deceleration	47	38
2024-02-09	31.36	26.94	6.76	377430	Upward Expansion	47	39
2024-02-02	31.04	26.66	6.80	303335	Upward Expansion	50	43
2024-01-26	32.53	26.35	13.13	285430	Upward Expansion	67	57
2024-01-19	31.45	25.99	10.41	155074	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-01-12	31.64	25.72	11.96	338916	Upward Expansion	67	83
2024-01-05	33.10	25.48	18.78	308590	Upward Expansion	75	90
2023-12-29	32.76	25.15	15.36	200614	Upward Expansion	79	92
2023-12-22	32.91	24.82	15.78	257244	Upward Expansion	89	94
2023-12-15	31.55	24.45	11.55	461804	Upward Expansion	89	89
2023-12-08	30.88	24.11	11.19	386902	Upward Expansion	92	84
2023-12-01	25.72	23.75	-7.79	217145	Upward Expansion	58	61
2023-11-24	25.64	23.59	-8.21	110673	Upward Expansion	58	57
2023-11-17	26.47	23.48	-5.23	135073	Deceleration	66	48
2023-11-10	24.43	23.35	-11.33	106690	Deceleration	35	19
2023-11-03	25.29	23.32	-7.91	269095	Deceleration	42	17
2023-10-27	22.85	23.26	-12.84	306609	Deceleration	-16	14
2023-10-20	22.66	23.27	-16.50	242620	Deceleration	-19	16
2023-10-13	22.97	23.29	-18.19	90517	Deceleration	-17	17

Price vs TrendAbove+0.5%

Trend directionRising+3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+20.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-10.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.5%

Price momentumPositive+6.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.69×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

4 / ±100

-44.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

12 /100

-18.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

EQBK Directional State ↗ EQBK Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance59

Rotation Up19

Upward Expansion47

Deceleration83

Rotation Down36

Downward Expansion28

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 56%Deceleration 25%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 6%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-18	2026-10-02	New	-2.2%
Upward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-09-11	Established	+7.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-06-12	Developing	+10.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-19	2026-03-20	Extended	+3.1%
Balance	2025-08-01	2025-09-12	Developing	+13.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-11	2025-07-25	New	-10.6%
Balance	2025-06-13	2025-07-04	New	+12.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-04	2025-06-06	Developing	+10.3%
Rotation Down	2025-03-21	2025-03-28	New	+0.5%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-03-14	Developing	-4.5%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-19	2024-12-27	Established	+7.7%
Balance	2024-06-21	2024-07-12	New	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-05	2024-06-14	Developing	-1.1%
Deceleration	2024-02-16	2024-03-29	Developing	+4.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing60

Stage 3 · Distribution79

Stage 4 · Declining40

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 49/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.55
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +6.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.9%
Financial Services regime cohort: 28th percentile103 in cohort

Test EQBK trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.69×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore EQBK Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 48.53falling

Slow Activity USD 48.66rising

Trend Reference USD 47.51+0.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 39.73+20.1% close margin

Structural low USD 44.03shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.2%

Annualized volatility +18.8%

From structural high -8.7%

From structural low +24.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	19	+1.7%-11.3% to +7.5%	+63.2%	+63.2%	-0.2%	+63.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	7	+6.2%-25.1% to +32.6%	+57.1%	+57.1%	-0.1%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	+10.6%-29.7% to +32.7%	+71.4%	+71.4%	-0.0%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+6.9%-1.9% to +33.2%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+1.3%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

EQBK Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map