Weekly structural research · TWO · Communication Services

6163 Stage Analysis

HwaCom Systems Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 43.85Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -40−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 27/100directional strength

Maturity 92/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +45.5%TWD 30.13 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	43.85	49.39	-32.56	7933035	Downward Expansion	-40	27
2026-10-02	41.20	49.73	-35.56	2896859	Downward Expansion	-57	45
2026-09-25	41.40	50.08	-34.64	3037315	Downward Expansion	-58	49
2026-09-18	41.55	50.51	-33.21	4023188	Downward Expansion	-58	50
2026-09-11	38.60	50.84	-36.62	1678404	Downward Expansion	-75	60
2026-09-04	40.61	51.31	-33.94	317020	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2026-08-28	42.68	51.95	-30.29	383055	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2026-08-21	41.55	52.79	-30.45	315200	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-08-14	41.95	53.80	-30.71	567946	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2026-08-07	40.07	54.39	-31.44	321000	Downward Expansion	-69	86
2026-07-31	38.50	54.90	-32.47	769320	Downward Expansion	-81	89
2026-07-24	41.00	55.60	-28.99	4773100	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2026-07-17	40.30	55.81	-28.61	2913182	Downward Expansion	-82	79
2026-07-10	46.20	56.02	-23.02	6164459	Downward Expansion	-68	66
2026-07-03	48.35	55.93	-21.80	5389965	Rotation Down	-64	62
2026-06-26	47.40	55.54	-19.42	9650447	Rotation Down	-42	49
2026-06-19	49.95	55.06	-18.38	5523065	Balance	-35	39
2026-06-12	51.30	54.35	-11.63	8655666	Balance	-31	31
2026-06-05	53.70	53.50	-9.04	28574516	Balance	3	14
2026-05-29	53.00	52.52	-9.24	19730497	Balance	2	14
2026-05-22	53.20	51.54	-3.30	13096286	Balance	5	14
2026-05-15	54.80	50.49	2.66	25892681	Upward Expansion	22	16
2026-05-08	57.20	49.52	6.45	15934643	Upward Expansion	36	20
2026-05-01	55.80	48.42	11.58	12566142	Upward Expansion	50	32
2026-04-24	61.00	47.28	22.82	63679609	Upward Expansion	56	40
2026-04-17	67.40	45.97	44.80	63903247	Upward Expansion	66	55
2026-04-10	64.50	44.47	46.02	21647062	Upward Expansion	63	47
2026-04-03	59.50	43.09	48.32	23277865	Deceleration	53	39
2026-03-27	62.30	41.85	54.71	88070787	Deceleration	60	38
2026-03-20	62.90	40.48	56.24	50912569	Deceleration	54	32
2026-03-13	54.10	39.14	36.95	13764868	Deceleration	34	24
2026-03-06	51.60	38.08	31.24	16049282	Deceleration	35	28
2026-02-27	54.30	37.09	32.23	31635082	Deceleration	41	28
2026-02-13	51.50	36.00	33.43	9707436	Upward Expansion	49	43
2026-02-06	52.60	35.03	45.43	22476873	Upward Expansion	65	61
2026-01-30	59.80	34.00	65.94	35463093	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-01-23	68.00	32.71	92.64	67242727	Upward Expansion	79	72
2026-01-16	71.80	31.15	111.66	184347125	Upward Expansion	95	78
2026-01-09	59.70	29.43	86.81	46005772	Upward Expansion	84	77
2026-01-02	55.30	28.13	81.95	45705890	Upward Expansion	80	92
2025-12-26	59.60	26.96	105.12	69015604	Upward Expansion	97	99
2025-12-19	47.10	25.65	70.70	11536059	Upward Expansion	86	95
2025-12-12	46.80	24.79	68.90	13255551	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-12-05	43.45	23.96	59.98	101806863	Upward Expansion	97	98
2025-11-28	36.50	23.26	37.50	51196262	Upward Expansion	94	97
2025-11-21	33.25	22.75	31.69	105503579	Upward Expansion	90	89
2025-11-14	28.50	22.28	9.35	49237860	Upward Expansion	81	72
2025-11-07	25.75	21.97	-2.20	25600454	Upward Expansion	69	42
2025-10-31	24.45	21.71	-9.23	24279748	Upward Expansion	60	43
2025-10-24	23.40	21.61	-11.21	3774354	Upward Expansion	49	49
2025-10-17	21.80	21.57	-16.85	11190878	Upward Expansion	46	43
2025-10-10	25.55	21.62	-3.13	8956588	Upward Expansion	80	67
2025-10-03	24.35	21.48	-6.19	21076519	Upward Expansion	71	38
2025-09-26	21.60	21.40	-13.41	2491213	Upward Expansion	35	20
2025-09-19	21.60	21.43	-14.06	3257496	Upward Expansion	50	29
2025-09-12	22.60	21.47	-10.42	4686552	Upward Expansion	57	34
2025-09-05	23.10	21.48	-5.27	4926098	Balance	68	40
2025-08-29	22.09	21.43	-8.62	3809060	Balance	26	21
2025-08-22	21.40	21.36	-9.98	3081833	Rotation Up	53	34
2025-08-15	22.68	21.31	-7.00	5041802	Rotation Up	66	54
2025-08-08	22.23	21.31	-7.76	2213924	Rotation Up	34	44
2025-08-01	21.94	21.30	-6.98	1654331	Balance	20	37
2025-07-25	21.50	21.31	-8.87	1849905	Balance	14	27
2025-07-18	22.38	21.33	-5.52	3025907	Balance	23	24
2025-07-11	21.79	21.34	-5.61	2555966	Balance	-5	7
2025-07-04	21.11	21.42	-7.87	1548071	Balance	-31	14
2025-06-27	21.11	21.49	-8.13	1713613	Balance	-45	23
2025-06-20	20.28	21.56	-9.66	2010207	Balance	-50	32
2025-06-13	20.57	21.69	-8.68	4510513	Balance	-44	24
2025-06-06	20.23	21.86	-8.68	1522127	Balance	-38	17
2025-05-30	20.52	21.96	-6.12	1971239	Balance	-30	19
2025-05-23	21.26	22.08	-4.10	1886319	Balance	-24	20
2025-05-16	21.79	22.16	-2.52	10206033	Downward Expansion	-27	16
2025-05-09	22.38	22.28	4.57	5197388	Downward Expansion	-39	24
2025-05-02	21.26	22.37	0.11	9249808	Downward Expansion	-60	64
2025-04-25	19.20	22.57	-5.35	1947217	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2025-04-18	19.25	22.84	-2.90	2310064	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2025-04-11	17.92	23.10	-10.31	5301488	Downward Expansion	-79	53
2025-04-04	21.55	23.33	-1.35	2273222	Downward Expansion	-43	21
2025-03-28	22.09	23.39	-0.42	5659439	Downward Expansion	-25	14
2025-03-21	23.36	23.44	2.30	10141536	Downward Expansion	-20	11
2025-03-14	21.26	23.39	-5.80	1954131	Downward Expansion	-46	21
2025-03-07	21.89	23.40	-5.82	1487449	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2025-02-28	22.63	23.45	-4.77	1518472	Downward Expansion	-32	23
2025-02-21	22.82	23.51	-6.70	2967692	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-02-14	22.77	23.59	-4.60	4823534	Downward Expansion	-57	43
2025-02-07	21.70	23.67	-10.38	6105252	Downward Expansion	-60	54
2025-01-24	19.98	23.74	-17.74	1310000	Downward Expansion	-75	72
2025-01-17	19.93	23.85	-16.89	5597000	Downward Expansion	-80	69
2025-01-10	22.72	23.94	-5.05	7644000	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2025-01-03	21.89	23.96	-8.32	2564000	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2024-12-27	22.04	23.99	-9.48	1875000	Balance	-65	59
2024-12-20	22.09	23.97	-6.31	4480000	Balance	-39	45
2024-12-13	22.82	23.91	-5.41	8186000	Balance	-22	31
2024-12-06	24.05	23.84	-1.07	9937000	Balance	-11	13
2024-11-29	23.21	23.72	-0.52	3419000	Balance	1	7
2024-11-22	23.46	23.60	-2.26	4588385	Balance	2	7
2024-11-15	24.05	23.48	0.93	16558000	Balance	18	12
2024-11-08	25.61	23.36	3.93	10601000	Balance	31	21
2024-11-01	23.41	23.24	-1.58	2641000	Balance	14	18
2024-10-25	24.05	23.16	-1.34	5304000	Upward Expansion	28	19
2024-10-18	23.70	23.08	-3.33	8033000	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-10-11	25.17	23.03	5.35	7157000	Upward Expansion	57	45
2024-10-04	25.37	22.84	9.25	7898000	Upward Expansion	59	64
2024-09-27	27.03	22.72	14.05	21627000	Upward Expansion	66	71
2024-09-20	27.28	22.46	18.93	26683000	Upward Expansion	69	67
2024-09-13	27.08	22.18	20.76	30919000	Upward Expansion	69	54
2024-09-06	24.78	21.88	12.72	12164000	Upward Expansion	53	25
2024-08-30	23.31	21.65	2.26	4327000	Upward Expansion	26	17
2024-08-23	23.65	21.47	4.25	8654000	Upward Expansion	30	19
2024-08-16	21.81	21.31	-4.62	5803000	Upward Expansion	25	17
2024-08-09	21.76	21.21	-1.13	11251000	Upward Expansion	34	21
2024-08-02	23.41	21.13	5.47	14309000	Upward Expansion	58	42
2024-07-26	24.42	21.02	7.71	10178000	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-07-19	25.00	20.81	6.77	44432000	Upward Expansion	69	64
2024-07-12	25.19	20.58	2.92	44993000	Upward Expansion	75	66
2024-07-05	24.03	20.32	-0.36	25900000	Upward Expansion	71	68
2024-06-28	23.31	20.12	-1.38	16058000	Upward Expansion	66	69
2024-06-21	22.39	19.94	-6.40	10562000	Upward Expansion	59	66
2024-06-14	23.50	19.78	1.17	19736000	Upward Expansion	73	67
2024-06-07	22.68	19.56	0.26	43510000	Deceleration	66	48
2024-05-31	21.37	19.35	-3.00	9608000	Deceleration	51	26
2024-05-24	20.31	19.19	-10.01	3660000	Deceleration	30	14
2024-05-17	20.75	19.07	-7.35	7243000	Deceleration	32	18
2024-05-10	20.55	18.92	-6.48	8955000	Deceleration	29	19
2024-05-03	19.58	18.78	-10.02	2503000	Deceleration	34	17
2024-04-26	19.83	18.68	-8.82	3823000	Upward Expansion	42	26
2024-04-19	20.31	18.57	-4.62	9769000	Upward Expansion	56	41
2024-04-12	22.05	18.44	-3.34	19313000	Upward Expansion	69	67
2024-04-05	20.99	18.26	-6.84	6282000	Upward Expansion	61	61
2024-03-29	21.76	18.14	-3.58	12939000	Upward Expansion	71	75
2024-03-22	22.15	18.00	-1.90	14031000	Upward Expansion	79	75
2024-03-15	19.68	17.83	-10.55	13270000	Upward Expansion	57	57
2024-03-08	21.62	17.76	-2.54	95893000	Deceleration	80	63
2024-03-01	19.39	17.62	-8.48	5733000	Deceleration	63	32
2024-02-23	18.67	17.56	-11.59	4760000	Deceleration	36	22
2024-02-16	18.23	17.54	-12.31	1573000	Deceleration	32	22
2024-02-09	17.80	17.54	-11.96	1025000	Upward Expansion	37	21
2024-02-02	18.04	17.57	-10.55	3975000	Upward Expansion	54	36
2024-01-26	18.62	17.60	-7.30	4339000	Upward Expansion	62	64
2024-01-19	18.86	17.62	-4.36	7672900	Rotation Up	63	70
2024-01-12	19.44	17.65	-0.27	36770000	Rotation Up	48	67
2024-01-05	20.02	17.68	2.89	26461000	Rotation Up	62	68
2023-12-29	18.18	17.77	-8.47	3526000	Rotation Up	30	47
2023-12-22	17.99	17.90	-7.69	2120000	Downward Expansion	9	32
2023-12-15	17.51	18.01	-10.49	2468000	Downward Expansion	-1	23
2023-12-08	18.18	18.17	-5.52	3133000	Downward Expansion	12	27
2023-12-01	17.89	18.33	-7.17	2658000	Downward Expansion	1	12
2023-11-24	17.41	18.51	-8.79	4162000	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2023-11-17	17.07	18.71	-10.10	2558000	Downward Expansion	-42	31
2023-11-10	16.30	18.94	-11.46	2561000	Downward Expansion	-59	43
2023-11-03	16.68	19.17	-8.49	1357000	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2023-10-27	16.68	19.28	-6.43	1494000	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2023-10-20	16.05	19.40	-11.64	1273000	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2023-10-13	16.54	19.50	-10.89	930000	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2023-10-06	16.59	19.54	-9.28	1245000	Downward Expansion	-64	72

Price vs TrendBelow-11.2%

Trend directionFalling-10.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+45.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-18.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-32.6%

Relative strength directionWeakening-9.5%

Price momentumNegative-32.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.51×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-40 / ±100

+34.7 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

27 /100

-33.2 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

6163 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance38

Rotation Up28

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration47

Rotation Down30

Downward Expansion60

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 38%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 29%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-10-09	Established	-5.1%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-03	New	+2.0%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-19	Developing	-6.1%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-05-15	Developing	-15.0%
Deceleration	2026-02-27	2026-04-03	Developing	+9.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-12	2026-02-13	Established	+127.9%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-09-05	New	+4.6%
Rotation Up	2025-08-08	2025-08-22	New	-3.7%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-08-01	Developing	+3.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-01-03	2025-05-16	Established	-0.4%
Balance	2024-11-01	2024-12-27	Developing	-5.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-06-14	2024-10-25	Established	+2.3%
Deceleration	2024-05-03	2024-06-07	Developing	+15.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-03-15	2024-04-26	Developing	+0.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing23

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution48

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 77/100
Current Relative Strength: -32.56
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -32.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -71.2%
Communication Services regime cohort: 8th percentile25 in cohort

Test 6163 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.40×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.51×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 6163 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 42.00rising

Slow Activity TWD 44.93falling

Trend Reference TWD 49.39-11.2% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 30.13+45.5% close margin

Structural low TWD 37.75shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +7.1%

Annualized volatility +36.7%

From structural high -42.8%

From structural low +107.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	20	-0.5%-15.0% to +11.6%	+45.0%	+55.0%	-0.0%	+80.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	+4.8%-18.1% to +21.6%	+62.5%	+37.5%	-1.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+8.9%-12.5% to +80.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+3.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+62.8%+13.4% to +172.7%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+34.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

6163 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map