Weekly structural research · SHZ · Basic Materials

000761 Stage Analysis

Bengang Steel Plates Co., Ltd.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CNY 2.35Tenure EstablishedBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -42−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 32/100directional strength

Maturity 90/100lifecycle context

Confidence 65/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -28.2%CNY 3.27 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	2.35	2.57	-13.91	66036394	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2026-09-25	2.21	2.61	-22.21	96068384	Downward Expansion	-66	46
2026-09-18	2.27	2.67	-22.76	76992116	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2026-09-11	2.30	2.71	-21.60	110066539	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2026-09-04	2.33	2.76	-21.69	97426808	Downward Expansion	-39	31
2026-08-28	2.41	2.80	-22.27	19640339	Downward Expansion	-43	38
2026-08-21	2.33	2.84	-26.46	15310400	Downward Expansion	-45	41
2026-08-14	2.27	2.87	-30.57	12323701	Downward Expansion	-48	48
2026-08-07	2.29	2.90	-30.88	13528813	Downward Expansion	-50	50
2026-07-31	2.35	2.94	-26.32	13958900	Downward Expansion	-62	59
2026-07-24	2.20	2.97	-33.02	16977602	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2026-07-17	2.25	3.01	-32.22	17634800	Downward Expansion	-66	81
2026-07-10	2.24	3.04	-39.50	22491280	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-07-03	2.20	3.08	-43.62	19315790	Downward Expansion	-76	90
2026-06-26	2.14	3.12	-46.65	10910774	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2026-06-19	2.31	3.16	-44.23	80544126	Downward Expansion	-79	90
2026-06-12	2.41	3.20	-38.64	20359739	Downward Expansion	-75	88
2026-06-05	2.44	3.24	-40.21	15640300	Downward Expansion	-78	88
2026-05-29	2.51	3.28	-40.61	94754882	Downward Expansion	-79	84
2026-05-22	2.59	3.32	-39.91	77107898	Downward Expansion	-80	81
2026-05-15	2.66	3.35	-39.07	69921205	Downward Expansion	-81	76
2026-05-08	2.91	3.38	-34.33	49541576	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2026-05-01	2.95	3.40	-32.29	63142999	Downward Expansion	-66	67
2026-04-24	2.97	3.42	-31.89	55887705	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2026-04-17	3.02	3.44	-31.25	72586614	Downward Expansion	-64	69
2026-04-10	3.05	3.46	-28.48	83771447	Downward Expansion	-65	58
2026-04-03	2.95	3.48	-26.58	87941575	Balance	-71	47
2026-03-27	3.24	3.50	-22.40	94586084	Balance	-29	21
2026-03-20	3.25	3.52	-23.43	161562053	Rotation Up	-12	9
2026-03-13	3.68	3.54	-16.39	110047328	Rotation Up	27	34
2026-03-06	3.69	3.54	-16.09	100937309	Rotation Up	21	42
2026-02-27	3.80	3.54	-16.14	91889233	Rotation Up	31	41
2026-02-13	3.57	3.55	-19.37	86556640	Balance	14	24
2026-02-06	3.71	3.56	-15.35	144363977	Balance	7	16
2026-01-30	3.61	3.57	-19.59	137074509	Downward Expansion	-11	11
2026-01-23	3.55	3.57	-22.55	126410746	Downward Expansion	-26	17
2026-01-16	3.20	3.58	-29.72	93022511	Downward Expansion	-66	40
2026-01-09	3.35	3.59	-25.91	75458027	Downward Expansion	-52	34
2026-01-02	3.35	3.60	-22.93	32917174	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2025-12-26	3.40	3.61	-22.52	51684417	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2025-12-19	3.31	3.64	-22.19	46817669	Downward Expansion	-61	73
2025-12-12	3.18	3.67	-26.19	50061694	Downward Expansion	-77	79
2025-12-05	3.35	3.69	-22.02	49649271	Downward Expansion	-65	64
2025-11-28	3.33	3.71	-21.89	60114685	Downward Expansion	-70	53
2025-11-21	3.36	3.72	-18.70	76342291	Downward Expansion	-66	33
2025-11-14	3.70	3.74	-15.33	65711025	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2025-11-07	3.62	3.73	-18.47	63290585	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-10-31	3.57	3.73	-19.71	76552571	Downward Expansion	-51	27
2025-10-24	3.56	3.74	-19.79	53436033	Downward Expansion	-53	31
2025-10-17	3.56	3.74	-16.31	70296855	Downward Expansion	-53	43
2025-10-10	3.66	3.76	-18.44	39585769	Downward Expansion	-55	48
2025-10-03	3.48	3.76	-23.62	25570029	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2025-09-26	3.46	3.78	-22.60	59084681	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2025-09-19	3.60	3.80	-19.00	105216122	Balance	-58	47
2025-09-12	3.72	3.80	-15.45	85716448	Balance	-49	43
2025-09-05	3.68	3.79	-14.28	72498044	Balance	-51	40
2025-08-29	3.58	3.77	-17.24	111463703	Balance	-29	26
2025-08-22	3.73	3.76	-10.04	87464212	Balance	10	9
2025-08-15	3.73	3.75	-5.89	64938740	Balance	25	11
2025-08-08	3.91	3.73	3.22	85103559	Balance	40	22
2025-08-01	3.69	3.69	-1.16	106562500	Balance	26	17
2025-07-25	4.02	3.67	6.14	112154550	Balance	57	33
2025-07-18	3.85	3.65	4.39	63283727	Balance	33	15
2025-07-11	3.91	3.63	8.62	98045300	Balance	23	14
2025-07-04	3.82	3.62	8.44	121526647	Balance	12	18
2025-06-27	3.61	3.62	4.14	49153616	Balance	5	19
2025-06-20	3.55	3.61	6.63	40533056	Upward Expansion	15	13
2025-06-13	3.62	3.60	7.91	61295694	Upward Expansion	32	22
2025-06-06	3.76	3.59	11.82	90867772	Upward Expansion	56	50
2025-05-30	4.15	3.59	25.65	82166079	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-05-23	4.26	3.57	28.51	233101659	Upward Expansion	73	61
2025-05-16	3.90	3.55	17.76	41250480	Deceleration	55	37
2025-05-09	3.94	3.53	19.98	49843596	Deceleration	57	28
2025-05-02	3.74	3.51	16.93	36132423	Deceleration	32	17
2025-04-25	3.73	3.50	16.71	55704737	Deceleration	32	18
2025-04-18	3.58	3.48	13.79	58968190	Deceleration	31	18
2025-04-11	3.49	3.45	10.29	95053976	Upward Expansion	34	20
2025-04-04	3.78	3.41	13.13	46057611	Upward Expansion	55	36
2025-03-28	3.72	3.36	8.73	110234716	Upward Expansion	59	44
2025-03-21	4.02	3.32	16.57	179045644	Upward Expansion	70	74
2025-03-14	3.77	3.27	6.56	109584979	Upward Expansion	62	72
2025-03-07	3.97	3.23	13.35	147222873	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-02-28	4.03	3.18	17.62	191694892	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-02-21	3.70	3.13	4.37	203924256	Deceleration	57	37
2025-02-14	3.35	3.10	-3.62	132509222	Deceleration	34	23
2025-02-07	3.30	3.07	-3.83	104346217	Deceleration	23	13
2025-01-31	3.32	3.05	0.33	63508532	Deceleration	9	14
2025-01-24	3.27	3.02	-2.87	102615126	Deceleration	3	20
2025-01-17	3.02	3.00	-9.42	63782522	Deceleration	-1	22
2025-01-10	2.92	2.98	-9.66	46392297	Deceleration	-6	21
2025-01-03	3.06	2.98	-6.88	47185245	Deceleration	23	16
2024-12-27	3.31	2.97	-6.83	76963189	Upward Expansion	41	29
2024-12-20	3.35	2.96	-6.13	61563351	Upward Expansion	43	30
2024-12-13	3.57	2.95	-1.15	82752892	Upward Expansion	58	38
2024-12-06	3.66	2.94	0.16	78110485	Upward Expansion	65	40
2024-11-29	3.42	2.92	-5.17	48182368	Upward Expansion	47	36
2024-11-22	3.35	2.91	-5.98	74429562	Upward Expansion	60	46
2024-11-15	3.36	2.91	-8.76	75027204	Upward Expansion	64	54
2024-11-08	3.66	2.91	-4.65	92022937	Rotation Up	74	73
2024-11-01	3.66	2.91	1.45	147714347	Rotation Up	51	68
2024-10-25	3.54	2.91	-3.63	100436602	Rotation Up	48	75
2024-10-18	3.33	2.90	-7.35	89953745	Rotation Up	32	49
2024-10-11	3.19	2.90	-8.99	152756807	Rotation Up	26	44
2024-10-04	3.56	2.92	-3.30	68622389	Rotation Up	47	49
2024-09-27	3.29	2.91	-1.32	206812502	Rotation Up	8	12
2024-09-20	2.40	2.92	-15.33	75086981	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2024-09-13	2.52	2.95	-10.36	52509578	Downward Expansion	-63	56
2024-09-06	2.26	2.98	-21.23	36519115	Downward Expansion	-82	78
2024-08-30	2.40	3.00	-19.00	38216998	Downward Expansion	-73	57
2024-08-23	2.44	3.04	-16.40	32935705	Downward Expansion	-74	55
2024-08-16	2.56	3.06	-14.38	25899095	Downward Expansion	-54	47
2024-08-09	2.64	3.10	-12.51	25991850	Downward Expansion	-51	50
2024-08-02	2.63	3.13	-14.76	44292231	Downward Expansion	-62	58
2024-07-26	2.56	3.16	-17.74	34226957	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2024-07-19	2.50	3.20	-22.68	28688679	Downward Expansion	-73	70
2024-07-12	2.62	3.25	-18.89	37092325	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2024-07-05	2.62	3.29	-17.70	35867443	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2024-06-28	2.51	3.34	-22.75	39544714	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2024-06-21	2.58	3.38	-22.81	36714209	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2024-06-14	2.72	3.43	-20.61	30487664	Downward Expansion	-84	86
2024-06-07	2.82	3.46	-18.02	65803980	Downward Expansion	-81	79
2024-05-31	3.00	3.50	-14.08	31912696	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2024-05-24	3.06	3.52	-13.14	52242039	Downward Expansion	-72	72
2024-05-17	3.19	3.55	-12.33	58611800	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2024-05-10	3.18	3.57	-13.02	70207565	Downward Expansion	-60	57
2024-05-03	3.21	3.60	-11.01	26083976	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2024-04-26	3.26	3.62	-8.58	65805377	Downward Expansion	-45	20
2024-04-19	3.46	3.64	-1.04	73669477	Downward Expansion	-19	9
2024-04-12	3.55	3.64	2.39	54465675	Downward Expansion	-27	12
2024-04-05	3.58	3.65	0.12	52092088	Downward Expansion	-27	15
2024-03-29	3.36	3.66	-4.42	57060997	Downward Expansion	-38	18
2024-03-22	3.39	3.68	-5.29	138707021	Downward Expansion	-35	18
2024-03-15	3.66	3.70	1.77	70064209	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2024-03-08	3.39	3.72	-2.95	49873531	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-03-01	3.40	3.75	-2.95	60722826	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-02-23	3.44	3.77	2.66	73580438	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-02-09	3.26	3.79	0.65	118415281	Downward Expansion	-68	76
2024-02-02	3.09	3.81	5.07	80794033	Downward Expansion	-89	90
2024-01-26	3.43	3.84	7.96	73918122	Downward Expansion	-70	80
2024-01-19	3.27	3.86	3.38	60871914	Downward Expansion	-90	88
2024-01-12	3.53	3.89	9.64	41841397	Downward Expansion	-74	75
2024-01-05	3.69	3.90	13.86	44332007	Downward Expansion	-56	58
2023-12-29	3.57	3.91	6.18	50889926	Balance	-67	54
2023-12-22	3.79	3.93	17.03	32832470	Balance	-25	10
2023-12-15	3.88	3.94	18.58	32477238	Balance	-12	11
2023-12-08	3.93	3.94	18.86	31989299	Balance	-10	11
2023-12-01	3.93	3.95	17.57	30479180	Balance	-22	11
2023-11-24	3.93	3.96	17.00	33618042	Balance	-28	12
2023-11-17	3.86	3.96	14.07	85988110	Balance	-44	21
2023-11-10	3.79	3.97	12.81	38103454	Balance	-49	27
2023-11-03	3.83	3.97	16.16	37982676	Balance	-35	18
2023-10-27	3.84	3.97	18.15	54465000	Balance	-35	18
2023-10-20	3.75	3.98	18.53	44579655	Downward Expansion	-44	21
2023-10-13	3.95	3.99	19.39	66929202	Downward Expansion	-36	17
2023-09-29	3.86	3.99	16.84	61289841	Downward Expansion	-52	40
2023-09-22	3.86	3.99	16.66	78442220	Rotation Down	-56	58

Price vs TrendBelow-8.5%

Trend directionFalling-13.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-28.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+7.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.7%

Price momentumNegative-20.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.37×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-42 / ±100

-2.6 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

32 /100

+0.8 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

000761 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up24

Upward Expansion10

Deceleration66

Rotation Down43

Downward Expansion69

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-22 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 17%Rotation Up 7%Upward Expansion 12%Deceleration 8%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 55%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-04-10	2026-10-02	Established	-23.0%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-04-03	New	-9.0%
Rotation Up	2026-02-27	2026-03-20	New	-14.5%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-02-13	New	-3.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-26	2026-01-30	Established	+4.3%
Balance	2025-06-27	2025-09-19	Established	-0.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-20	Developing	-16.7%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-16	Developing	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-28	2025-04-11	Developing	-13.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-03	2025-02-21	Developing	+20.9%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-15	2024-12-27	Developing	-1.5%
Rotation Up	2024-09-27	2024-11-08	Developing	+11.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-01-05	2024-09-20	Extended	-35.0%
Balance	2023-10-27	2023-12-29	Developing	-7.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing72

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution1

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -13.91
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -20.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -16.9%
Basic Materials regime cohort: 19th percentile193 in cohort

Test 000761 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.47×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.37×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 000761 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 2.29falling

Slow Activity CNY 2.38falling

Trend Reference CNY 2.57-8.5% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 3.27-28.2% close margin

Structural low CNY 2.11shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +5.8%

Annualized volatility +25.5%

From structural high -40.2%

From structural low +11.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	33	-1.6%-16.3% to +38.8%	+36.4%	+63.6%	-0.2%	+84.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	11	-3.8%-26.6% to +35.6%	+36.4%	+63.6%	-4.7%	+63.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-9.9%-15.5% to +36.5%	+16.7%	+83.3%	-4.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-10.5%-32.1% to +6.8%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-15.0%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

000761 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map