Weekly structural research · GER · Consumer Cyclical

ECF Stage Analysis

Mountain Alliance AG

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 2.52Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -33−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 55/100directional strength

Maturity 8/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -2.9%EUR 2.60 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	2.52	2.65	-4.14	27388	Rotation Down	-33	55
2026-09-18	2.37	2.64	-9.49	20088	Rotation Down	-44	49
2026-09-11	2.75	2.64	3.87	1050	Deceleration	25	13
2026-09-04	2.76	2.64	2.45	5483	Deceleration	16	10
2026-08-28	2.78	2.62	1.24	0	Deceleration	17	11
2026-08-21	2.68	2.62	-0.74	2167	Deceleration	7	13
2026-08-14	2.81	2.61	2.94	710	Deceleration	28	22
2026-08-07	2.76	2.60	1.69	0	Deceleration	26	25
2026-07-31	2.68	2.59	1.40	92	Deceleration	32	22
2026-07-24	2.70	2.58	4.09	150	Upward Expansion	44	32
2026-07-17	2.80	2.57	8.98	2079	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-07-10	2.92	2.56	12.48	1	Upward Expansion	58	54
2026-07-03	2.98	2.55	11.49	252	Upward Expansion	66	51
2026-06-26	2.98	2.53	15.71	1675	Upward Expansion	68	44
2026-06-19	2.85	2.51	9.44	5738	Upward Expansion	61	41
2026-06-12	2.73	2.50	6.47	3031	Upward Expansion	55	40
2026-06-05	2.78	2.48	7.84	32	Upward Expansion	58	42
2026-05-29	2.89	2.47	10.67	23239	Upward Expansion	70	46
2026-05-22	2.78	2.45	7.53	20215	Upward Expansion	66	52
2026-05-15	2.66	2.43	6.89	17443	Upward Expansion	61	65
2026-05-08	2.62	2.42	3.39	2070	Upward Expansion	62	71
2026-05-01	2.73	2.41	7.74	9707	Upward Expansion	63	60
2026-04-24	2.80	2.40	11.16	24072	Rotation Up	69	50
2026-04-17	2.89	2.39	12.14	82252	Rotation Up	33	26
2026-04-10	2.41	2.37	-3.05	9864	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2026-04-03	2.24	2.37	-7.93	2003	Downward Expansion	-60	61
2026-03-27	2.12	2.37	-10.02	19694	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-03-20	2.10	2.38	-11.56	22220	Rotation Down	-69	69
2026-03-13	2.18	2.39	-12.74	5479	Rotation Down	-28	43
2026-03-06	2.18	2.40	-13.64	26705	Balance	-25	29
2026-02-27	2.28	2.41	-16.08	12690	Balance	9	8
2026-02-20	2.46	2.43	-9.69	6202	Balance	42	31
2026-02-13	2.52	2.44	-6.64	23743	Balance	17	21
2026-02-06	2.42	2.45	-10.03	16836	Balance	12	8
2026-01-30	2.74	2.47	2.22	12042	Balance	39	22
2026-01-23	2.32	2.50	-14.84	25029	Balance	-40	19
2026-01-16	2.38	2.51	-14.51	19402	Balance	-28	13
2026-01-09	2.46	2.51	-11.98	16294	Balance	-9	8
2026-01-02	2.50	2.52	-8.42	70450	Balance	-3	11
2025-12-26	2.40	2.52	-11.89	22000	Balance	-9	13
2025-12-19	2.46	2.53	-10.09	51092	Balance	-8	15
2025-12-12	2.56	2.54	-6.62	101760	Downward Expansion	5	14
2025-12-05	2.46	2.55	-10.11	76362	Downward Expansion	-27	17
2025-11-28	2.38	2.56	-12.85	24430	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2025-11-21	2.40	2.57	-9.90	15557	Downward Expansion	-37	21
2025-11-14	2.36	2.57	-14.90	115492	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2025-11-07	2.36	2.58	-14.51	30059	Downward Expansion	-56	41
2025-10-31	2.40	2.59	-15.15	24831	Downward Expansion	-58	56
2025-10-24	2.22	2.60	-22.97	9451	Downward Expansion	-69	69
2025-10-17	2.22	2.61	-22.37	1007	Downward Expansion	-73	68
2025-10-10	2.34	2.63	-20.13	1866	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2025-10-03	2.44	2.64	-17.83	3079	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2025-09-26	2.38	2.65	-18.24	1465	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-09-19	2.30	2.65	-21.13	2017	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2025-09-12	2.40	2.67	-18.52	1079	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2025-09-05	2.40	2.68	-18.66	15081	Balance	-56	45
2025-08-29	2.44	2.69	-18.85	24332	Balance	-54	44
2025-08-22	2.42	2.69	-21.53	22174	Balance	-19	22
2025-08-15	2.44	2.70	-21.41	56682	Balance	-18	18
2025-08-08	2.54	2.71	-17.94	47971	Balance	-3	8
2025-08-01	2.72	2.71	-9.92	52978	Upward Expansion	39	16
2025-07-25	2.76	2.71	-12.06	72275	Upward Expansion	48	39
2025-07-18	2.86	2.71	-9.54	82167	Upward Expansion	49	39
2025-07-11	2.98	2.71	-6.18	222903	Upward Expansion	48	47
2025-07-04	3.62	2.70	15.69	197382	Upward Expansion	73	57
2025-06-27	2.70	2.67	-14.57	27026	Balance	-40	23
2025-06-20	2.48	2.67	-19.84	43160	Balance	-62	37
2025-06-13	2.66	2.68	-15.31	8430	Balance	-33	21
2025-06-06	2.60	2.69	-20.49	16690	Balance	-37	14
2025-05-30	2.58	2.70	-20.69	11364	Balance	-9	13
2025-05-23	2.68	2.71	-17.05	17543	Downward Expansion	10	20
2025-05-16	2.90	2.71	-11.42	2755	Downward Expansion	32	31
2025-05-09	2.76	2.71	-15.11	31	Downward Expansion	-7	6
2025-05-02	2.70	2.71	-15.62	74	Downward Expansion	-40	33
2025-04-25	2.50	2.71	-19.03	2674	Balance	-68	52
2025-04-18	2.60	2.72	-11.84	3130	Balance	-53	25
2025-04-11	2.68	2.72	-5.35	137	Balance	-28	12
2025-04-04	2.68	2.72	-6.47	1464	Balance	-30	13
2025-03-28	2.66	2.72	-14.49	3815	Balance	-40	18
2025-03-21	2.68	2.72	-15.31	207	Balance	-43	31
2025-03-14	2.68	2.72	-15.67	3754	Balance	-44	27
2025-03-07	2.66	2.71	-16.42	1177	Balance	-43	20
2025-02-28	2.48	2.71	-20.57	3047	Balance	-41	22
2025-02-21	2.76	2.72	-10.72	49	Balance	5	7
2025-02-14	2.82	2.71	-9.71	7956	Rotation Down	9	7
2025-02-07	2.62	2.71	-13.40	0	Rotation Down	-33	36
2025-01-31	2.62	2.72	-13.31	1312	Rotation Down	-26	42
2025-01-24	2.72	2.73	-8.73	5052	Rotation Down	-20	39
2025-01-17	2.60	2.74	-10.71	11413	Rotation Down	-40	48
2025-01-10	2.60	2.75	-7.75	4500	Balance	-43	45
2025-01-03	2.72	2.76	-2.02	1220	Balance	-22	18
2024-12-27	2.74	2.77	-1.73	0	Balance	-7	8
2024-12-20	2.74	2.78	-1.41	0	Balance	-5	7
2024-12-13	2.74	2.79	-4.09	4132	Balance	-0	4
2024-12-06	2.80	2.80	-2.14	0	Balance	7	6
2024-11-29	2.76	2.79	-0.07	2000	Balance	10	10
2024-11-22	2.80	2.77	2.69	1772	Balance	11	14
2024-11-15	2.88	2.75	5.79	12049	Balance	26	29
2024-11-08	2.86	2.73	4.84	433	Balance	42	29
2024-11-01	2.76	2.70	0.58	5160	Balance	37	26
2024-10-25	2.90	2.68	3.85	30006	Deceleration	47	28
2024-10-18	2.72	2.65	-3.80	544	Deceleration	33	17
2024-10-11	2.82	2.63	0.59	8937	Deceleration	29	18
2024-10-04	2.72	2.61	-2.37	13506	Deceleration	28	14
2024-09-27	2.70	2.59	-5.51	31614	Deceleration	23	11
2024-09-20	2.74	2.57	-0.75	3909	Deceleration	23	12
2024-09-13	2.62	2.55	-5.55	5567	Deceleration	7	7
2024-09-06	2.58	2.54	-5.53	9007	Deceleration	2	11
2024-08-30	2.70	2.53	-4.89	11017	Deceleration	8	15
2024-08-23	2.70	2.52	-4.05	11073	Deceleration	6	18
2024-08-16	2.44	2.50	-12.29	11666	Deceleration	-9	23
2024-08-09	2.60	2.49	-4.10	8968	Deceleration	20	18
2024-08-02	2.70	2.47	-0.66	6466	Deceleration	33	20
2024-07-26	2.64	2.46	-7.34	7447	Deceleration	36	22
2024-07-19	2.88	2.46	1.92	6092	Deceleration	43	32
2024-07-12	2.88	2.44	-1.47	11186	Deceleration	45	36
2024-07-05	2.78	2.43	-3.99	2647	Upward Expansion	49	44
2024-06-28	2.98	2.43	3.64	2680	Upward Expansion	63	56
2024-06-21	2.94	2.42	2.28	232	Upward Expansion	64	73
2024-06-14	2.96	2.41	3.57	5347	Upward Expansion	66	84
2024-06-07	2.96	2.40	0.26	2643	Rotation Up	68	87
2024-05-31	3.12	2.39	5.43	2603	Rotation Up	60	85
2024-05-24	3.10	2.39	3.30	21897	Rotation Up	63	80
2024-05-17	2.88	2.36	-4.46	9846	Rotation Up	51	55
2024-05-10	2.44	2.36	-19.81	5588	Downward Expansion	8	19
2024-05-03	2.30	2.38	-21.87	2430	Downward Expansion	-20	17
2024-04-26	2.30	2.40	-23.14	4043	Downward Expansion	-32	19
2024-04-19	2.08	2.42	-29.32	28431	Downward Expansion	-61	44
2024-04-12	2.20	2.44	-26.64	35679	Downward Expansion	-61	47
2024-04-05	2.06	2.47	-32.71	57466	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2024-03-29	1.95	2.50	-37.91	23277	Downward Expansion	-86	70
2024-03-22	2.14	2.54	-31.38	44071	Downward Expansion	-66	51
2024-03-15	2.16	2.56	-30.18	321	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2024-03-08	2.18	2.59	-29.63	0	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-03-01	2.18	2.62	-30.10	3500	Downward Expansion	-64	53
2024-02-23	2.18	2.65	-29.60	3268	Downward Expansion	-66	55
2024-02-16	2.26	2.68	-26.58	55041	Downward Expansion	-61	57
2024-02-09	2.22	2.70	-27.62	6000	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2024-02-02	2.24	2.73	-27.55	2676	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2024-01-26	2.16	2.76	-30.85	3200	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2024-01-19	2.16	2.79	-29.72	6528	Downward Expansion	-75	77
2024-01-12	2.18	2.82	-30.28	11932	Downward Expansion	-77	72
2024-01-05	2.32	2.85	-25.95	2991	Downward Expansion	-72	62
2023-12-29	2.52	2.88	-21.04	17466	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2023-12-22	2.50	2.90	-22.18	6717	Downward Expansion	-62	43
2023-12-15	2.56	2.92	-21.27	22411	Downward Expansion	-59	34
2023-12-08	2.62	2.95	-20.24	15171	Downward Expansion	-57	34
2023-12-01	2.64	2.97	-18.63	6201	Downward Expansion	-59	35
2023-11-24	2.82	2.98	-11.89	15705	Downward Expansion	-51	29
2023-11-17	2.60	2.99	-18.84	9791	Downward Expansion	-66	54
2023-11-10	2.70	3.00	-12.74	10000	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2023-11-03	2.94	3.01	-5.54	2439	Downward Expansion	-55	50
2023-10-27	2.46	3.01	-18.93	22763	Downward Expansion	-84	71
2023-10-20	2.72	3.02	-11.95	4000	Downward Expansion	-72	56
2023-10-13	3.00	3.02	-6.33	5300	Downward Expansion	-47	27
2023-10-06	2.98	3.01	-7.95	13938	Downward Expansion	-25	28

Price vs TrendBelow-4.8%

Trend directionRising+3.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-2.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-16.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-4.1%

Relative strength directionWeakening-19.8%

Price momentumPositive+18.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.90×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-33 / ±100

-49.7 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

55 /100

+44.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ECF Directional State ↗ ECF Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance33

Rotation Up15

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration50

Rotation Down65

Downward Expansion51

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 28%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 34%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	+6.3%
Deceleration	2026-07-31	2026-09-11	Developing	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-07-24	Established	-1.1%
Rotation Up	2026-04-17	2026-04-24	New	-3.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	+13.7%
Rotation Down	2026-03-13	2026-03-20	New	-3.7%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-03-06	Developing	-11.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-12	2025-12-12	Established	+6.7%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-09-05	Developing	-5.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-07-04	2025-08-01	Developing	-24.9%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-27	Developing	+4.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-23	New	-0.7%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-04-25	Developing	-9.4%
Rotation Down	2025-01-17	2025-02-14	Developing	+8.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing38

Stage 2 · Advancing51

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining49

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 69/100
Current Relative Strength: -4.14
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +18.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +4.9%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 38th percentile8 in cohort

Test ECF trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume4.19×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.90×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ECF Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 2.58falling

Slow Activity EUR 2.72falling

Trend Reference EUR 2.65-4.8% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 2.60-2.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 2.14shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +5.4%

Annualized volatility +41.8%

From structural high -25.4%

From structural low +24.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+8.5%-5.0% to +10.6%	+60.0%	+40.0%	+0.8%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	+0.0%-2.2% to +25.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-1.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+10.0%-20.1% to +26.1%	+66.7%	+33.3%	-6.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-12.9%-17.3% to -8.5%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-35.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ECF Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map