Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Cyclical

1342 Stage Analysis

Cathay Consolidated, Inc.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close TWD 100.00Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Momentum cooling

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -5−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 33/100directional strength

Maturity 32/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.6%TWD 91.20 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	100.00	100.01	-19.99	386278	Deceleration	-5	33
2026-09-25	101.00	99.71	-19.07	458778	Deceleration	1	24
2026-09-18	102.00	99.52	-17.44	413436	Deceleration	7	17
2026-09-11	99.30	99.26	-18.53	687976	Deceleration	-2	13
2026-09-04	102.50	99.07	-17.36	84275	Deceleration	11	13
2026-08-28	104.00	98.57	-16.51	120000	Deceleration	14	14
2026-08-21	103.00	98.08	-15.94	76007	Deceleration	23	25
2026-08-14	103.00	97.66	-17.61	355298	Deceleration	27	24
2026-08-07	104.00	97.11	-14.48	547083	Deceleration	35	22
2026-07-31	96.90	96.43	-18.83	2299640	Upward Expansion	28	23
2026-07-24	111.00	95.95	-8.88	246216	Upward Expansion	61	53
2026-07-17	115.00	95.00	-3.97	579509	Upward Expansion	68	58
2026-07-10	110.50	93.87	-13.63	0	Upward Expansion	65	67
2026-07-03	115.50	92.93	-13.11	3819314	Upward Expansion	71	87
2026-06-26	111.00	91.76	-13.03	3443247	Upward Expansion	66	86
2026-06-19	116.00	90.67	-13.54	5838511	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-06-12	117.50	89.48	-8.66	12773530	Upward Expansion	93	89
2026-06-05	104.00	88.22	-21.44	4099356	Upward Expansion	83	63
2026-05-29	91.60	87.28	-31.11	1298497	Upward Expansion	54	35
2026-05-22	94.20	86.85	-26.01	1118548	Upward Expansion	60	52
2026-05-15	93.20	86.31	-25.72	1340898	Upward Expansion	59	62
2026-05-08	94.20	85.90	-26.61	1905207	Upward Expansion	61	59
2026-05-01	92.00	85.42	-24.31	1537891	Upward Expansion	52	44
2026-04-24	96.30	85.02	-21.77	5862227	Deceleration	66	37
2026-04-17	91.10	84.48	-22.59	1515047	Deceleration	29	18
2026-04-10	88.10	84.18	-22.98	1474461	Deceleration	19	22
2026-04-03	83.60	84.07	-21.45	684540	Deceleration	8	22
2026-03-27	84.70	84.09	-22.46	1231773	Deceleration	22	22
2026-03-20	86.00	83.90	-23.07	1785614	Upward Expansion	42	28
2026-03-13	89.00	83.70	-20.80	3242005	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-03-06	91.12	83.40	-20.18	2831289	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-02-27	95.15	82.97	-21.60	2911106	Upward Expansion	77	74
2026-02-13	94.21	82.43	-18.88	3464022	Upward Expansion	79	79
2026-02-06	93.74	81.92	-15.32	4089086	Upward Expansion	85	87
2026-01-30	87.46	81.40	-22.23	729256	Upward Expansion	66	80
2026-01-23	89.43	81.13	-20.80	837082	Upward Expansion	79	85
2026-01-16	90.27	80.87	-19.16	1192135	Upward Expansion	89	85
2026-01-09	86.53	80.60	-20.17	1358133	Upward Expansion	78	69
2026-01-02	83.62	80.51	-20.82	508855	Balance	66	57
2025-12-26	82.49	80.58	-20.17	312002	Balance	31	40
2025-12-19	82.40	80.77	-18.30	308039	Balance	22	26
2025-12-12	81.09	81.00	-21.53	541181	Balance	-17	16
2025-12-05	82.40	81.26	-20.15	829130	Balance	-11	12
2025-11-28	80.53	81.44	-21.41	766396	Downward Expansion	-30	14
2025-11-21	78.28	81.68	-20.59	663765	Downward Expansion	-53	29
2025-11-14	80.06	81.98	-22.05	706724	Downward Expansion	-49	29
2025-11-07	79.68	82.12	-23.43	856495	Downward Expansion	-54	43
2025-10-31	75.93	82.16	-28.86	839317	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2025-10-24	78.74	82.79	-24.76	391494	Balance	-56	43
2025-10-17	78.09	83.19	-25.09	927608	Balance	-52	40
2025-10-10	80.81	83.78	-22.85	357306	Balance	-38	27
2025-10-03	79.78	84.19	-22.62	338405	Balance	-42	28
2025-09-26	79.87	84.82	-19.29	684015	Balance	-30	14
2025-09-19	80.24	85.41	-19.19	507990	Balance	-24	20
2025-09-12	82.12	86.06	-17.25	1354530	Downward Expansion	-24	20
2025-09-05	84.84	86.57	-11.35	1486310	Downward Expansion	-18	19
2025-08-29	83.99	87.06	-11.44	2118831	Downward Expansion	-36	23
2025-08-22	79.03	87.42	-15.15	436668	Downward Expansion	-54	47
2025-08-15	80.24	87.86	-16.02	715681	Downward Expansion	-62	53
2025-08-08	79.96	88.30	-15.45	612949	Downward Expansion	-65	65
2025-08-01	78.09	88.61	-15.62	556908	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2025-07-25	78.93	89.05	-14.71	794163	Downward Expansion	-69	87
2025-07-18	78.84	89.46	-15.07	475504	Downward Expansion	-72	87
2025-07-11	78.28	90.05	-13.55	598739	Downward Expansion	-79	87
2025-07-04	79.21	90.60	-12.01	999596	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2025-06-27	81.84	90.94	-9.49	1118739	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2025-06-20	82.12	91.24	-7.17	640848	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2025-06-13	83.90	91.52	-5.46	740924	Balance	-60	40
2025-06-06	85.59	91.62	-1.93	799225	Balance	-44	23
2025-05-30	88.12	91.63	2.26	628754	Balance	-34	18
2025-05-23	89.34	91.63	2.16	784584	Balance	-36	19
2025-05-16	88.87	91.58	0.58	852522	Rotation Down	-49	27
2025-05-09	88.03	91.52	3.83	1011857	Rotation Down	-26	30
2025-05-02	87.74	91.41	3.85	801084	Rotation Down	-30	49
2025-04-25	87.28	91.39	7.71	1599946	Rotation Down	-21	43
2025-04-18	83.99	91.32	5.85	1979100	Balance	-31	43
2025-04-11	81.09	91.29	1.13	2690410	Balance	-35	30
2025-04-04	94.68	91.31	7.58	1514906	Balance	25	19
2025-03-28	90.93	91.00	1.36	1375377	Upward Expansion	18	14
2025-03-21	95.62	90.73	3.11	1433455	Upward Expansion	39	22
2025-03-14	93.04	90.30	0.90	1216839	Upward Expansion	53	33
2025-03-07	98.86	89.95	3.87	1377924	Upward Expansion	61	51
2025-02-28	97.52	89.52	-0.17	779641	Upward Expansion	62	64
2025-02-21	99.75	89.17	-1.19	1586999	Upward Expansion	71	69
2025-02-14	97.52	88.78	-1.22	2718132	Upward Expansion	64	60
2025-02-07	99.31	88.62	-1.18	1692898	Upward Expansion	74	60
2025-01-24	94.83	88.54	-6.19	466598	Deceleration	60	32
2025-01-17	92.15	88.55	-7.79	757009	Deceleration	39	21
2025-01-10	93.49	88.62	-6.35	2319160	Rotation Up	47	23
2025-01-03	89.29	88.60	-10.61	739106	Rotation Up	51	30
2024-12-27	91.25	88.71	-10.65	758636	Rotation Up	31	42
2024-12-20	91.25	88.75	-8.14	2760291	Rotation Up	33	48
2024-12-13	96.62	88.76	-5.41	1862917	Rotation Up	52	65
2024-12-06	94.83	88.68	-8.29	1566553	Rotation Up	38	53
2024-11-29	89.46	88.64	-10.30	510463	Rotation Up	16	31
2024-11-22	90.81	88.89	-12.01	1044710	Balance	23	29
2024-11-15	90.36	89.15	-12.40	1384356	Balance	4	11
2024-11-08	87.14	89.47	-18.84	535116	Balance	-15	12
2024-11-01	85.71	90.08	-18.03	1004165	Balance	-18	13
2024-10-25	88.03	90.96	-18.40	732748	Balance	-14	12
2024-10-18	87.94	91.75	-19.53	1756379	Downward Expansion	-28	19
2024-10-11	87.05	92.46	-18.77	1147761	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-10-04	84.63	93.14	-19.33	291764	Downward Expansion	-40	26
2024-09-27	87.41	93.74	-19.05	760248	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2024-09-20	84.90	94.29	-19.42	363947	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-09-13	83.20	94.68	-19.98	423698	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-09-06	81.77	94.83	-20.61	607727	Downward Expansion	-72	61
2024-08-30	85.44	95.15	-20.69	503890	Downward Expansion	-66	70
2024-08-23	82.84	95.37	-23.19	289810	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2024-08-16	82.67	95.66	-24.41	621264	Downward Expansion	-76	87
2024-08-09	82.49	95.90	-21.86	1445026	Downward Expansion	-82	88
2024-08-02	85.80	96.19	-19.74	972609	Downward Expansion	-77	82
2024-07-26	87.05	96.44	-20.77	938538	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2024-07-19	88.30	96.66	-22.69	3445371	Balance	-73	49
2024-07-12	92.72	96.85	-22.88	2453624	Balance	-17	12
2024-07-05	96.78	96.87	-18.70	1279095	Deceleration	-10	10
2024-06-28	95.16	96.66	-18.68	1833314	Deceleration	-16	19
2024-06-21	94.34	96.60	-20.64	1548543	Rotation Down	-19	24
2024-06-14	92.72	96.64	-19.94	1307195	Rotation Down	-23	42
2024-06-07	92.72	96.51	-18.06	2643029	Rotation Down	-25	47
2024-05-31	92.31	96.38	-16.28	1164072	Rotation Down	-29	49
2024-05-24	91.50	96.26	-18.98	2379807	Deceleration	-32	37
2024-05-17	94.34	96.15	-15.76	890442	Deceleration	-22	30
2024-05-10	93.53	95.79	-14.88	3087980	Deceleration	4	22
2024-05-03	97.19	95.52	-10.56	1136056	Deceleration	21	24
2024-04-26	98.41	95.16	-9.22	1914585	Upward Expansion	39	24
2024-04-19	100.04	94.62	-5.79	3015315	Upward Expansion	60	45
2024-04-12	105.32	94.05	-7.29	2817700	Upward Expansion	66	62
2024-04-05	112.24	93.49	-0.19	2254622	Upward Expansion	77	90
2024-03-29	111.83	92.78	-1.11	8989025	Upward Expansion	82	92
2024-03-22	108.98	92.05	-4.03	4912799	Upward Expansion	82	93
2024-03-15	107.44	91.20	-3.49	5296828	Upward Expansion	84	89
2024-03-08	102.74	90.31	-8.77	5628284	Upward Expansion	77	78
2024-03-01	103.92	89.69	-4.29	9569428	Upward Expansion	81	68
2024-02-23	96.46	89.24	-11.57	4762542	Balance	61	29
2024-02-16	87.84	89.11	-18.92	1314870	Balance	2	6
2024-02-09	91.37	89.33	-14.01	345520	Upward Expansion	30	16
2024-02-02	92.15	89.31	-13.65	894625	Upward Expansion	33	19
2024-01-26	91.37	89.30	-14.34	1113488	Upward Expansion	34	18
2024-01-19	89.80	89.52	-14.56	1287959	Upward Expansion	37	19
2024-01-12	91.37	89.85	-12.50	2632947	Upward Expansion	52	30
2024-01-05	93.33	90.10	-10.98	1034301	Rotation Up	29	29
2023-12-29	93.72	90.28	-13.13	1275122	Rotation Up	30	24
2023-12-22	93.72	90.43	-11.98	8054694	Rotation Up	30	31
2023-12-15	93.33	90.54	-13.23	2304154	Balance	21	37
2023-12-08	90.58	90.88	-14.84	1795721	Balance	15	30
2023-12-01	93.33	91.25	-12.54	3072174	Balance	20	32
2023-11-24	95.68	91.79	-9.30	7914231	Balance	8	17
2023-11-17	88.62	92.49	-15.33	1673630	Balance	-17	14
2023-11-10	89.01	93.30	-12.06	1699149	Balance	-30	15
2023-11-03	88.62	94.43	-11.38	2196219	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2023-10-27	88.23	95.58	-9.57	3074557	Downward Expansion	-49	28
2023-10-20	83.52	96.69	-15.88	1807620	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2023-10-13	85.49	97.93	-15.47	5582538	Downward Expansion	-54	39
2023-10-06	86.27	98.84	-13.10	1484759	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2023-09-29	82.35	99.79	-15.90	885967	Downward Expansion	-65	43

Price vs TrendBelow-0.0%

Trend directionRising+4.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.6%

Fair Value directionMoving away-18.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-20.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-6.9%

Price momentumPositive+19.6%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.37×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-5 / ±100

-16.2 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

33 /100

+20.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1342 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance43

Rotation Up16

Upward Expansion49

Deceleration67

Rotation Down44

Downward Expansion46

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 21%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-10-02	Developing	-3.8%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-07-31	Established	+5.3%
Deceleration	2026-03-27	2026-04-24	Developing	+13.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-20	Developing	-0.6%
Balance	2025-12-05	2026-01-02	Developing	+1.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-31	2025-11-28	Developing	+6.0%
Balance	2025-09-19	2025-10-24	Developing	-1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-20	2025-09-12	Established	+0.0%
Balance	2025-05-23	2025-06-13	New	-6.1%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+1.8%
Balance	2025-04-04	2025-04-18	New	-11.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-28	Developing	-8.4%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-01-24	New	+2.9%
Rotation Up	2024-11-29	2025-01-10	Developing	+4.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing29

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution72

Stage 4 · Declining45

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 4/100
Current Relative Strength: -19.99
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +19.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -29.2%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 17th percentile46 in cohort

Test 1342 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.20×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.37×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1342 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 100.74falling

Slow Activity TWD 103.07rising

Trend Reference TWD 100.01-0.0% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 91.20+9.6% close margin

Structural low TWD 83.20shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +38.6%

From structural high -18.0%

From structural low +33.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	-1.4%-8.5% to +26.5%	+36.4%	+36.4%	-4.6%	+36.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+5.4%-17.0% to +31.1%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+2.7%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-4.3%-14.3% to +23.4%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-15.3%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-5.0%-7.9% to +164.8%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-10.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1342 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map