Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Defensive

ALTR Stage Analysis

Altria Group, Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 64.10Tenure NewBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 52−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 37/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 54/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +38.2%EUR 46.39 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	64.10	59.71	1.22	6	Balance	52	37
2026-10-02	59.80	59.52	-8.40	25	Balance	2	11
2026-09-25	60.04	59.40	-11.43	10	Balance	8	12
2026-09-18	60.90	59.33	-8.76	0	Rotation Down	8	9
2026-09-11	58.19	59.16	-14.33	19	Rotation Down	-21	41
2026-09-04	58.52	59.09	-14.01	0	Rotation Down	-24	52
2026-08-28	57.74	58.95	-14.78	0	Rotation Down	-23	52
2026-08-21	55.68	58.71	-16.41	25	Deceleration	-35	43
2026-08-14	55.66	58.56	-18.16	0	Deceleration	-5	20
2026-08-07	59.24	58.44	-12.28	0	Upward Expansion	29	20
2026-07-31	60.48	58.07	-8.10	2218	Upward Expansion	56	37
2026-07-24	64.18	57.66	-2.83	0	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-07-17	65.36	57.11	0.27	0	Upward Expansion	76	70
2026-07-10	62.44	56.53	-6.02	0	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-07-03	63.26	56.05	-6.09	0	Upward Expansion	66	55
2026-06-26	64.34	55.55	-2.33	191	Upward Expansion	77	54
2026-06-19	60.32	55.02	-10.23	200	Upward Expansion	58	42
2026-06-12	62.04	54.63	-4.05	0	Upward Expansion	69	58
2026-06-05	61.25	54.15	-2.73	0	Upward Expansion	67	64
2026-05-29	59.11	53.71	-7.25	18	Upward Expansion	61	63
2026-05-22	62.55	53.32	0.60	44	Upward Expansion	78	80
2026-05-15	61.31	53.02	0.57	0	Upward Expansion	77	63
2026-05-08	57.67	52.75	-5.86	35	Upward Expansion	56	36
2026-05-01	60.66	52.67	0.25	4	Deceleration	77	44
2026-04-24	55.92	52.44	-7.14	14	Deceleration	41	26
2026-04-17	53.55	52.37	-14.43	59	Upward Expansion	46	33
2026-04-10	57.16	52.34	-6.92	0	Upward Expansion	60	44
2026-04-03	57.34	52.22	-0.97	25	Upward Expansion	64	49
2026-03-27	57.68	52.08	2.74	0	Upward Expansion	70	54
2026-03-20	54.87	51.95	-1.01	16	Upward Expansion	64	58
2026-03-13	58.25	51.93	3.59	165	Upward Expansion	78	87
2026-03-06	56.22	51.76	-2.67	437	Rotation Up	66	86
2026-02-27	57.88	51.61	-5.19	78	Rotation Up	60	85
2026-02-20	55.92	51.38	-10.31	8001	Rotation Up	46	75
2026-02-13	55.96	51.12	-7.63	46	Rotation Up	51	73
2026-02-06	54.47	50.81	-10.99	337	Balance	48	48
2026-01-30	50.39	50.55	-17.11	0	Balance	-6	24
2026-01-23	51.33	50.45	-14.66	204	Downward Expansion	-8	19
2026-01-16	52.04	50.31	-13.07	122	Downward Expansion	-14	14
2026-01-09	48.12	50.19	-18.97	2215	Downward Expansion	-59	42
2026-01-02	48.14	50.17	-18.67	30	Downward Expansion	-60	47
2025-12-26	47.74	50.16	-18.27	2	Deceleration	-38	41
2025-12-19	47.96	50.21	-18.17	442	Rotation Down	-36	38
2025-12-12	48.02	50.22	-16.46	375	Rotation Down	-37	41
2025-12-05	48.22	50.24	-16.24	6	Rotation Down	-28	57
2025-11-28	48.61	50.26	-14.92	27	Rotation Down	-27	65
2025-11-21	48.56	50.25	-11.68	106	Rotation Down	-28	61
2025-11-14	47.59	50.21	-15.09	388	Rotation Down	-39	49
2025-11-07	47.95	50.20	-13.15	2328	Rotation Down	-37	40
2025-10-31	47.45	50.12	-15.38	1220	Rotation Down	3	11
2025-10-24	53.51	50.13	-2.10	560	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-10-17	53.43	50.00	-0.38	0	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-10-10	55.26	49.82	1.18	1000	Upward Expansion	77	59
2025-10-03	53.68	49.61	-3.47	100	Upward Expansion	63	51
2025-09-26	53.68	49.43	-1.32	2	Upward Expansion	66	54
2025-09-19	52.76	49.25	-2.42	45	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-09-12	53.43	49.08	-1.54	10	Upward Expansion	66	79
2025-09-05	53.34	48.83	-0.62	190	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-08-29	53.78	48.60	-0.21	45	Upward Expansion	75	90
2025-08-22	54.34	48.32	-2.72	80	Upward Expansion	86	93
2025-08-15	52.98	47.99	-6.26	5	Upward Expansion	83	86
2025-08-08	51.67	47.74	-6.20	185	Balance	74	68
2025-08-01	51.08	47.54	-1.82	427	Balance	65	40
2025-07-25	48.00	47.39	-10.11	719	Balance	-5	15
2025-07-18	46.87	47.30	-10.52	325	Balance	-18	27
2025-07-11	46.51	47.25	-11.21	150	Balance	-21	23
2025-07-04	47.54	47.25	-7.17	23	Balance	13	11
2025-06-27	46.93	47.27	-8.94	302	Upward Expansion	16	11
2025-06-20	48.56	47.31	-3.89	223	Upward Expansion	37	18
2025-06-13	47.38	47.31	-6.52	1000	Upward Expansion	30	15
2025-06-06	48.12	47.30	-6.95	4020	Upward Expansion	49	31
2025-05-30	49.00	47.18	-4.65	860	Upward Expansion	55	42
2025-05-23	48.39	47.03	-4.70	1573	Upward Expansion	50	36
2025-05-16	48.51	46.78	-5.40	790	Deceleration	50	29
2025-05-09	48.87	46.51	-1.64	2714	Deceleration	55	28
2025-05-02	48.34	46.22	2.08	2707	Deceleration	37	20
2025-04-25	47.28	45.96	1.65	1082	Deceleration	27	19
2025-04-18	47.26	45.74	5.72	2030	Deceleration	33	16
2025-04-11	45.65	45.50	8.10	5478	Upward Expansion	26	17
2025-04-04	47.79	45.35	12.32	2189	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-03-28	49.55	45.17	5.58	457	Upward Expansion	74	64
2025-03-21	48.13	44.92	0.91	436	Upward Expansion	64	70
2025-03-14	48.90	44.67	1.89	1068	Upward Expansion	74	78
2025-03-07	48.31	44.38	1.11	1721	Upward Expansion	70	71
2025-02-28	48.36	44.11	5.04	314	Upward Expansion	76	70
2025-02-21	47.44	43.83	6.00	1088	Deceleration	68	44
2025-02-14	46.19	43.58	2.76	722	Deceleration	43	24
2025-02-07	46.32	43.35	8.90	1474	Deceleration	43	21
2025-01-31	45.42	43.07	7.73	2588	Deceleration	31	20
2025-01-24	44.48	42.78	6.52	2111	Deceleration	34	20
2025-01-17	45.48	42.53	11.31	2434	Deceleration	39	28
2025-01-10	45.48	42.25	15.84	974	Deceleration	41	29
2025-01-03	46.55	41.93	19.28	372	Upward Expansion	46	39
2024-12-27	45.54	41.60	18.10	358	Upward Expansion	51	50
2024-12-20	45.29	41.28	19.62	403	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-12-13	46.61	40.95	21.96	789	Upward Expansion	68	82
2024-12-06	47.96	40.60	28.57	498	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-11-29	48.27	40.17	32.00	2342	Upward Expansion	85	94
2024-11-22	48.35	39.71	33.49	489	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-11-15	47.12	39.25	30.31	351	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-11-08	44.64	38.79	24.59	4608	Upward Expansion	87	89
2024-11-01	44.33	38.40	25.26	902	Deceleration	87	61
2024-10-25	41.00	38.01	14.72	152	Deceleration	46	30
2024-10-18	40.45	37.79	12.11	223	Deceleration	38	27
2024-10-11	40.23	37.57	11.96	10	Deceleration	40	27
2024-10-04	40.30	37.34	12.50	508	Upward Expansion	46	38
2024-09-27	40.75	37.06	12.74	257	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-09-20	39.99	36.74	11.84	645	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-09-13	41.43	36.46	16.45	0	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-09-06	42.37	36.11	20.06	6907	Upward Expansion	86	80
2024-08-30	41.97	35.72	14.56	1310	Upward Expansion	89	77
2024-08-23	40.44	35.37	11.81	107	Upward Expansion	73	69
2024-08-16	40.35	35.05	13.65	884	Upward Expansion	75	84
2024-08-09	40.17	34.72	15.46	5441	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-08-02	39.85	34.42	15.97	1047	Upward Expansion	80	89
2024-07-26	40.02	34.14	12.19	4281	Upward Expansion	91	95
2024-07-19	39.48	33.81	10.81	24630	Upward Expansion	91	85
2024-07-12	37.84	33.51	5.36	268	Upward Expansion	82	72
2024-07-05	36.74	33.29	2.28	1036	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-06-28	36.93	33.10	5.46	474	Upward Expansion	73	75
2024-06-21	37.04	32.91	6.28	4033	Upward Expansion	81	75
2024-06-14	35.77	32.70	4.29	430	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-06-07	36.84	32.51	3.80	276	Upward Expansion	84	86
2024-05-31	35.73	32.29	-0.19	1198	Upward Expansion	71	81
2024-05-24	35.61	32.12	-2.21	306	Upward Expansion	73	85
2024-05-17	35.91	31.94	-1.66	80	Upward Expansion	84	91
2024-05-10	35.32	31.84	-1.71	153	Upward Expansion	83	80
2024-05-03	34.20	31.75	-2.42	808	Upward Expansion	70	56
2024-04-26	34.63	31.68	-0.12	624	Upward Expansion	80	55
2024-04-19	33.29	31.60	-3.75	693	Upward Expansion	62	51
2024-04-12	32.99	31.57	-5.20	1623	Upward Expansion	64	76
2024-04-05	32.64	31.57	-6.57	484	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-03-29	34.36	31.56	-0.94	622	Rotation Up	87	91
2024-03-22	33.92	31.48	-1.22	25	Rotation Up	59	75
2024-03-15	33.43	31.42	-0.23	306	Rotation Up	53	61
2024-03-08	31.83	31.35	-4.21	76	Balance	23	24
2024-03-01	31.17	31.33	-6.22	30	Balance	-15	9
2024-02-23	31.47	31.35	-5.53	419	Balance	-8	9
2024-02-16	30.84	31.39	-8.10	96	Balance	-26	13
2024-02-09	30.75	31.44	-7.17	180	Balance	-28	15
2024-02-02	31.57	31.48	-7.03	23	Downward Expansion	-18	10
2024-01-26	30.65	31.54	-10.20	0	Downward Expansion	-51	22
2024-01-19	30.60	31.60	-7.41	41	Downward Expansion	-52	26
2024-01-12	31.23	31.64	-7.06	0	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2024-01-05	31.39	31.66	-7.52	31	Downward Expansion	-38	25
2023-12-29	30.10	31.70	-11.61	40	Downward Expansion	-67	41
2023-12-22	30.50	31.77	-9.98	411	Downward Expansion	-48	25
2023-12-15	31.14	31.83	-7.37	147	Downward Expansion	-40	23
2023-12-08	30.98	31.87	-6.70	209	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2023-12-01	31.49	31.91	-5.21	400	Downward Expansion	-61	61
2023-11-24	30.53	31.95	-6.45	1	Downward Expansion	-63	78
2023-11-17	30.18	32.03	-8.19	129	Downward Expansion	-70	82
2023-11-10	30.15	32.10	-6.36	187	Downward Expansion	-77	78
2023-11-03	30.74	32.15	-4.08	95	Rotation Down	-68	63
2023-10-27	30.29	32.17	-0.52	47	Rotation Down	-71	41
2023-10-20	32.72	32.22	6.63	35	Balance	53	25

Price vs TrendAbove+7.3%

Trend directionRising+2.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+38.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.5%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+1.2%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.2%

Price momentumPositive+12.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.01×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

52 / ±100

+73.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

37 /100

-3.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALTR Directional State ↗ ALTR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance40

Rotation Up67

Upward Expansion62

Deceleration57

Rotation Down5

Downward Expansion15

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 11%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 51%Deceleration 14%Rotation Down 9%Downward Expansion 11%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+6.8%
Rotation Down	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	+5.5%
Deceleration	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-08-07	Established	+2.7%
Deceleration	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	+8.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-03-13	2026-04-17	Developing	-8.1%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-03-06	New	+0.5%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+8.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	+6.6%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2025-12-26	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-12-19	Developing	+1.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-24	Developing	+1.0%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	+8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-06-27	Developing	-3.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing19

Stage 2 · Advancing85

Stage 3 · Distribution69

Stage 4 · Declining15

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3B · Distribution. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 40/100
Current Relative Strength: 1.22
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +12.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.4%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 25th percentile8 in cohort

Test ALTR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.04×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.01×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALTR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 61.32rising

Slow Activity EUR 60.24rising

Trend Reference EUR 59.71+7.3% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 46.39+38.2% close margin

Structural low EUR 53.51shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +31.0%

From structural high -1.9%

From structural low +39.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+1.8%-7.7% to +14.9%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.7%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	+0.7%-6.3% to +20.4%	+55.6%	+55.6%	+4.4%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+1.0%-3.2% to +20.0%	+83.3%	+83.3%	-0.9%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+22.7%-5.8% to +50.6%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+8.2%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALTR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map