Weekly structural research ยท SET ยท Consumer Defensive

COCOCO Stage Analysis

Thai Coconut Public Company Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close THB 5.60Tenure NewBenchmark ^SET.BK
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Balance ยท Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

  • The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
  • Activity structure: moderate and contracting.
Direction -20โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 29/100directional strength
Maturity 13/100lifecycle context
Confidence 66/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Mixedstructural direction
Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation
Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -29.7%THB 7.97 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 156 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-255.605.69-12.721831900Balance-2029
2026-09-185.555.70-13.463464600Balance-1623
2026-09-115.655.71-14.102627000Upward Expansion1715
2026-09-045.805.71-12.415537600Upward Expansion3922
2026-08-285.855.70-12.245124200Upward Expansion5542
2026-08-216.005.68-12.671877700Upward Expansion6147
2026-08-145.905.67-14.362521700Upward Expansion5847
2026-08-076.205.64-11.293321900Upward Expansion8376
2026-07-315.805.59-18.51707300Upward Expansion5958
2026-07-245.855.56-19.62400900Upward Expansion6064
2026-07-176.005.53-18.151201800Upward Expansion7871
2026-07-105.805.49-20.901612300Upward Expansion6344
2026-07-035.755.46-21.881673400Balance5932
2026-06-265.755.44-19.302316500Balance5932
2026-06-195.555.41-24.10722800Balance4725
2026-06-125.605.39-24.81104200Balance5135
2026-06-055.755.36-22.84668400Balance6250
2026-05-295.655.39-23.9713219200Balance5139
2026-05-225.605.44-23.674750900Balance3837
2026-05-155.655.50-22.462946800Balance1324
2026-05-085.605.56-22.772346200Balance-1012
2026-05-015.635.64-22.613979600Balance-23
2026-04-245.485.71-23.262397600Balance-2213
2026-04-175.535.81-24.531483200Balance-3219
2026-04-105.435.89-27.532366600Balance-3423
2026-04-035.485.97-24.645482000Balance-2921
2026-03-275.396.04-26.092938100Balance-2718
2026-03-205.486.11-24.524344900Balance-811
2026-03-135.636.18-21.767596800Balance-419
2026-03-065.786.24-20.2811778400Balance-225
2026-02-275.876.32-25.659521800Downward Expansion527
2026-02-205.836.37-24.4222792100Downward Expansion-1229
2026-02-135.736.41-23.8528698600Downward Expansion-3139
2026-02-065.436.47-24.2715231100Downward Expansion-3929
2026-01-305.346.52-24.9012876300Downward Expansion-4539
2026-01-235.686.57-20.3325008600Downward Expansion-5050
2026-01-164.886.57-30.315610800Downward Expansion-6563
2026-01-094.906.59-29.764236800Downward Expansion-6665
2026-01-024.886.62-31.35765900Downward Expansion-6878
2025-12-264.866.65-32.614696800Downward Expansion-7184
2025-12-194.886.69-32.894161300Downward Expansion-7188
2025-12-124.886.73-33.924327900Downward Expansion-7190
2025-12-054.946.79-34.846947000Rotation Down-7491
2025-11-284.946.85-34.754901700Rotation Down-5785
2025-11-214.946.91-35.4319002400Rotation Down-5684
2025-11-144.806.97-38.7773081700Rotation Down-5877
2025-11-076.717.01-17.475884400Deceleration-1932
2025-10-317.006.98-14.727959200Deceleration917
2025-10-247.296.95-11.839810900Upward Expansion3520
2025-10-177.746.92-4.223465000Upward Expansion5641
2025-10-107.786.89-4.955993200Upward Expansion5952
2025-10-037.886.85-4.8218580600Upward Expansion6160
2025-09-268.276.820.7430587600Upward Expansion7058
2025-09-197.936.78-4.7020427300Upward Expansion6244
2025-09-127.986.79-4.5324610000Upward Expansion6542
2025-09-057.696.78-6.4110009000Rotation Up6040
2025-08-297.446.83-7.8011890100Rotation Up3135
2025-08-227.396.90-10.2322635000Rotation Up3446
2025-08-157.597.00-8.8919956600Rotation Up3660
2025-08-088.087.08-3.8051769600Rotation Up4663
2025-08-017.447.18-9.0137177800Rotation Up3241
2025-07-257.157.32-13.1639021500Rotation Up630
2025-07-187.547.45-8.3156734100Downward Expansion1425
2025-07-116.717.57-12.9239575700Downward Expansion-3422
2025-07-047.007.72-9.8654611300Downward Expansion-3635
2025-06-275.737.85-24.3717055100Downward Expansion-6664
2025-06-205.298.03-30.0410438200Downward Expansion-8589
2025-06-135.788.22-28.137410300Downward Expansion-7480
2025-06-065.878.37-28.506458300Downward Expansion-7576
2025-05-305.928.50-29.4814000200Downward Expansion-7661
2025-05-236.278.64-27.8910240000Downward Expansion-5546
2025-05-166.468.80-27.5019118200Downward Expansion-4742
2025-05-096.908.96-24.2433277700Downward Expansion-4844
2025-05-026.809.12-25.2526716800Downward Expansion-5356
2025-04-256.619.24-25.5547781500Downward Expansion-6563
2025-04-186.199.37-30.3520475600Downward Expansion-6766
2025-04-115.729.52-34.7335086400Downward Expansion-8173
2025-04-046.049.70-31.1921006500Downward Expansion-8078
2025-03-286.479.87-29.9017454200Downward Expansion-7684
2025-03-216.7910.03-27.3428834600Downward Expansion-7388
2025-03-146.65โ€”โ€”37904900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-076.94โ€”โ€”38478900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-287.08โ€”โ€”42733500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-218.11โ€”โ€”65809500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-147.83โ€”โ€”40425000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-079.18โ€”โ€”35035300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-319.56โ€”โ€”69767300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2410.22โ€”โ€”18689500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1710.22โ€”โ€”20974300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1011.06โ€”โ€”25452000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0311.43โ€”โ€”15617800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2711.25โ€”โ€”19837400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2011.06โ€”โ€”36187700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1311.06โ€”โ€”11893000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0611.15โ€”โ€”17761200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2911.15โ€”โ€”41043900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-2210.87โ€”โ€”30132900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-1510.22โ€”โ€”35515400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-089.93โ€”โ€”29679300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-019.93โ€”โ€”114847500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-2511.15โ€”โ€”35345800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1811.15โ€”โ€”46458000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-1111.81โ€”โ€”68448800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-0410.40โ€”โ€”20531700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2710.50โ€”โ€”40935100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-2010.68โ€”โ€”52256900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-1311.15โ€”โ€”11774700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-0611.15โ€”โ€”22080800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-3011.25โ€”โ€”31008700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-2311.06โ€”โ€”25503500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-1611.62โ€”โ€”15564100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0911.25โ€”โ€”38294500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-0211.43โ€”โ€”9843200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-2611.25โ€”โ€”44202400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1912.00โ€”โ€”69502800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-1212.46โ€”โ€”16558600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-0512.46โ€”โ€”31069600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2812.37โ€”โ€”44391300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-2112.00โ€”โ€”47314200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-1411.53โ€”โ€”41335500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-0712.37โ€”โ€”44955300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-3112.37โ€”โ€”65552300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-2412.00โ€”โ€”30339300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1712.56โ€”โ€”87605600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-1012.65โ€”โ€”77484600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-0312.37โ€”โ€”117803700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-2611.90โ€”โ€”216517600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1910.22โ€”โ€”26786900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-1210.50โ€”โ€”59598000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-0510.36โ€”โ€”74929800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-299.90โ€”โ€”67667500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-229.81โ€”โ€”48649500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-159.90โ€”โ€”99932200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-089.81โ€”โ€”159453300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-019.71โ€”โ€”188743900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-238.52โ€”โ€”178410800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-167.47โ€”โ€”35243000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-097.42โ€”โ€”21584400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-027.42โ€”โ€”38667800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-267.79โ€”โ€”44285900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-197.97โ€”โ€”95541700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-127.84โ€”โ€”45572600Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-057.79โ€”โ€”54684900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-297.24โ€”โ€”15809800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-227.33โ€”โ€”34043800Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-157.51โ€”โ€”42120300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-087.47โ€”โ€”31061900Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-017.47โ€”โ€”56132700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-247.74โ€”โ€”74311700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-177.65โ€”โ€”123030500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-107.47โ€”โ€”123977500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-11-038.11โ€”โ€”73065500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-277.79โ€”โ€”123512200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-208.50โ€”โ€”195555300Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-139.04โ€”โ€”137005200Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-10-068.64โ€”โ€”153212100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-1.6%
Trend directionRising+2.9%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-29.7%
Fair Value directionMoving away-0.1%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.7%
Relative strength directionImproving+6.6%
Price momentumPositive+4.0%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.48ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-20 / ยฑ100

-75.8 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

29 /100

-12.4 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance45
Rotation Up17
Upward Expansion18
Deceleration65
Rotation Down61
Downward Expansion41

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 ยท 80 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 38%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Balance2026-09-182026-09-25New+0.9%
Upward Expansion2026-07-102026-09-11Developing-2.6%
Balance2026-03-062026-07-03Established-0.5%
Downward Expansion2025-12-122026-02-27Developing+20.5%
Rotation Down2025-11-142025-12-05New+3.1%
Deceleration2025-10-312025-11-07New-4.2%
Upward Expansion2025-09-122025-10-24Developing-8.6%
Rotation Up2025-07-252025-09-05Developing+7.5%
Downward Expansion2025-03-212025-07-18Established+11.0%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing71
Stage 2 ยท Advancing40
Stage 3 ยท Distribution30
Stage 4 ยท Declining44

Legacy result: Stage 1 ยท Stage 1A ยท Bottoming. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SET.BK

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
94/100
Current Relative Strength
-12.72
Relative Strength direction
Improving
Price momentum
+4.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-7.1%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort
42th percentile12 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.65ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.48ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity THB 5.64falling
Slow Activity THB 5.75falling
Trend Reference THB 5.69-1.6% close margin
Current Fair Value THB 7.97-29.7% close margin
Structural low THB 5.29shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +3.9%
Annualized volatility +17.3%
From structural high -33.9%
From structural low +22.2%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^SET.BK Regime survived Read
Near term5+1.7%-5.1% to +2.7%+80.0%+80.0%-4.6%+80.0%Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate2+0.2%-0.5% to +0.9%+50.0%+50.0%-6.3%+50.0%Too little matched history
Extended1+0.4%+0.4% to +0.4%+100.0%+100.0%-12.7%+0.0%Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context