Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Cyclical

SBUX Stage Analysis

Starbucks Corporation

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close EUR 82.60Tenure NewBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Down · Supply rotation

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -46−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 69/100directional strength

Maturity 6/100lifecycle context

Confidence 90/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +2.8%EUR 80.35 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	82.60	87.31	-16.66	152	Rotation Down	-46	69
2026-09-18	83.79	87.30	-14.00	1537	Upward Expansion	-38	38
2026-09-11	85.51	87.20	-13.67	1253	Upward Expansion	2	13
2026-09-04	90.53	87.01	-8.52	555	Upward Expansion	43	31
2026-08-28	92.97	86.72	-5.36	850	Upward Expansion	62	42
2026-08-21	90.53	86.14	-5.98	333	Upward Expansion	45	34
2026-08-14	93.27	85.85	-4.83	222	Upward Expansion	67	48
2026-08-07	91.57	85.37	-5.65	222	Upward Expansion	59	47
2026-07-31	91.11	84.81	-3.59	317	Upward Expansion	63	65
2026-07-24	91.45	84.13	-3.47	333	Upward Expansion	64	71
2026-07-17	93.36	83.43	-0.38	232	Upward Expansion	75	82
2026-07-10	93.00	82.80	-2.96	799	Upward Expansion	76	78
2026-07-03	91.16	82.10	-6.43	106	Upward Expansion	70	67
2026-06-26	91.88	81.48	-3.80	724	Deceleration	74	45
2026-06-19	87.49	80.89	-10.45	38	Deceleration	43	24
2026-06-12	88.65	80.39	-5.93	246	Upward Expansion	51	30
2026-06-05	82.84	79.82	-10.03	0	Upward Expansion	45	33
2026-05-29	84.94	79.38	-9.11	452	Upward Expansion	61	57
2026-05-22	88.93	78.85	-2.49	480	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-05-15	91.46	78.30	2.18	270	Upward Expansion	82	86
2026-05-08	88.64	77.63	-1.51	0	Upward Expansion	75	80
2026-05-01	88.88	76.92	0.15	1428	Upward Expansion	77	72
2026-04-24	83.76	76.35	-5.16	784	Deceleration	59	37
2026-04-17	84.76	75.87	-7.64	957	Deceleration	52	24
2026-04-10	81.63	75.38	-9.24	576	Deceleration	37	24
2026-04-03	78.27	74.93	-7.84	778	Upward Expansion	36	18
2026-03-27	75.25	74.72	-8.82	636	Upward Expansion	34	27
2026-03-20	80.55	74.66	-1.74	1072	Upward Expansion	62	49
2026-03-13	86.71	74.46	3.79	1785	Upward Expansion	80	71
2026-03-06	83.75	74.10	-2.77	1106	Upward Expansion	72	61
2026-02-27	82.33	73.83	-10.08	1180	Upward Expansion	71	65
2026-02-20	80.67	73.49	-14.63	420	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-02-13	79.88	73.36	-13.93	517	Upward Expansion	64	71
2026-02-06	81.92	73.31	-13.52	807	Upward Expansion	75	77
2026-01-30	75.68	73.18	-20.34	1374	Rotation Up	57	67
2026-01-23	81.62	73.24	-13.97	936	Rotation Up	53	65
2026-01-16	78.91	73.06	-16.86	306	Balance	44	37
2026-01-09	74.69	73.05	-21.14	593	Balance	1	4
2026-01-02	70.97	73.19	-25.14	94	Balance	-30	14
2025-12-26	70.25	73.35	-25.26	254	Balance	-20	10
2025-12-19	74.58	73.40	-21.32	1064	Balance	5	15
2025-12-12	71.86	73.32	-22.93	530	Balance	-9	14
2025-12-05	72.76	73.40	-22.47	1559	Balance	-10	16
2025-11-28	74.04	73.27	-20.88	673	Balance	-5	10
2025-11-21	72.55	73.17	-19.83	927	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2025-11-14	71.60	73.09	-22.80	400	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2025-11-07	69.62	73.01	-24.18	611	Downward Expansion	-45	26
2025-10-31	69.06	73.02	-26.33	1661	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2025-10-24	72.45	73.15	-21.15	241	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2025-10-17	71.41	73.62	-21.44	821	Downward Expansion	-56	37
2025-10-10	67.08	74.12	-28.11	607	Downward Expansion	-75	59
2025-10-03	71.79	74.75	-25.15	237	Downward Expansion	-62	62
2025-09-26	69.59	75.44	-26.40	417	Downward Expansion	-67	71
2025-09-19	69.91	76.65	-26.20	1068	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2025-09-12	68.28	77.83	-28.74	3	Balance	-77	68
2025-09-05	71.76	79.01	-24.91	439	Balance	-64	40
2025-08-29	73.51	80.03	-23.79	514	Balance	-54	31
2025-08-22	74.50	80.92	-25.94	527	Balance	-41	29
2025-08-15	75.87	81.42	-25.92	258	Balance	-35	26
2025-08-08	75.78	81.86	-24.52	1156	Balance	-34	24
2025-08-01	72.13	82.21	-24.06	547	Balance	-49	28
2025-07-25	76.85	82.67	-21.36	466	Balance	-16	13
2025-07-18	78.17	82.95	-18.47	1233	Balance	-16	15
2025-07-11	78.20	83.06	-18.41	1221	Balance	-17	18
2025-07-04	77.33	83.43	-17.49	496	Downward Expansion	-18	21
2025-06-27	76.47	83.85	-19.06	744	Downward Expansion	-30	24
2025-06-20	78.48	84.38	-15.46	1055	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2025-06-13	78.98	84.87	-15.44	1329	Downward Expansion	-41	28
2025-06-06	75.77	85.23	-20.71	2414	Downward Expansion	-44	36
2025-05-30	71.61	85.57	-24.87	1293	Downward Expansion	-49	43
2025-05-23	72.16	86.06	-23.72	1796	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-05-16	74.25	86.51	-22.60	667	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2025-05-09	68.95	86.83	-26.07	1734	Downward Expansion	-71	84
2025-05-02	70.87	87.30	-20.63	2095	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2025-04-25	70.37	87.70	-20.10	1704	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2025-04-18	69.21	88.14	-18.83	1795	Rotation Down	-83	92
2025-04-11	69.94	88.58	-13.86	4549	Rotation Down	-61	80
2025-04-04	72.87	89.08	-11.54	1154	Rotation Down	-52	55
2025-03-28	86.49	89.24	-5.54	480	Deceleration	-17	38
2025-03-21	86.52	89.08	-7.51	297	Deceleration	4	23
2025-03-14	85.82	88.86	-9.24	805	Upward Expansion	21	20
2025-03-07	92.49	88.73	-2.27	424	Upward Expansion	66	59
2025-02-28	106.03	87.83	15.75	153	Upward Expansion	78	92
2025-02-21	105.38	86.48	18.01	146	Upward Expansion	85	95
2025-02-14	103.62	85.13	15.18	3	Upward Expansion	87	95
2025-02-07	102.38	83.83	19.97	158	Upward Expansion	90	92
2025-01-31	100.14	82.57	17.93	1512	Deceleration	87	75
2025-01-24	89.58	81.43	6.27	399	Deceleration	59	36
2025-01-17	88.99	80.75	7.40	243	Deceleration	43	22
2025-01-10	86.13	80.14	7.59	453	Deceleration	24	26
2025-01-03	86.21	79.61	7.76	102	Deceleration	29	27
2024-12-27	85.20	79.14	7.15	6	Deceleration	35	26
2024-12-20	81.39	78.61	3.52	1500	Upward Expansion	35	34
2024-12-13	89.17	78.18	11.50	944	Upward Expansion	66	73
2024-12-06	90.12	77.42	14.69	314	Upward Expansion	67	86
2024-11-29	92.39	76.62	19.04	114	Upward Expansion	79	90
2024-11-22	93.11	75.67	20.27	298	Upward Expansion	88	92
2024-11-15	89.76	75.15	15.14	149	Upward Expansion	82	86
2024-11-08	85.97	74.72	10.21	206	Upward Expansion	66	54
2024-11-01	86.40	74.34	11.09	301	Upward Expansion	71	56
2024-10-25	85.55	73.98	7.98	929	Upward Expansion	71	55
2024-10-18	83.82	73.77	4.22	121	Upward Expansion	67	55
2024-10-11	83.04	73.60	3.25	211	Upward Expansion	63	55
2024-10-04	82.92	73.42	3.03	410	Upward Expansion	66	61
2024-09-27	83.44	73.26	2.31	908	Rotation Up	70	64
2024-09-20	82.70	73.18	2.10	201	Rotation Up	44	72
2024-09-13	84.67	73.22	4.64	175	Rotation Up	55	80
2024-09-06	77.85	73.09	-3.47	74	Rotation Up	28	56
2024-08-30	81.65	73.32	-3.15	287	Rotation Up	45	54
2024-08-23	79.99	73.25	-4.45	592	Rotation Up	43	46
2024-08-16	81.75	73.24	-1.05	397	Rotation Up	4	14
2024-08-09	65.56	73.17	-19.46	2197	Downward Expansion	-62	54
2024-08-02	65.55	73.60	-19.27	134	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-07-26	64.87	74.05	-23.77	151	Downward Expansion	-67	68
2024-07-19	64.65	74.58	-24.57	379	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2024-07-12	64.48	75.12	-26.01	89	Downward Expansion	-77	61
2024-07-05	66.09	75.74	-24.76	45	Downward Expansion	-75	52
2024-06-28	69.16	76.33	-19.64	88	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-06-21	70.52	76.82	-18.12	132	Downward Expansion	-42	32
2024-06-14	70.38	77.39	-17.45	268	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2024-06-07	72.18	78.07	-18.68	533	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2024-05-31	69.11	78.65	-23.18	470	Downward Expansion	-65	83
2024-05-24	68.49	79.32	-25.54	349	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2024-05-17	66.52	79.75	-28.27	105	Downward Expansion	-78	91
2024-05-10	66.08	80.28	-28.10	361	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2024-05-03	63.87	80.77	-29.21	542	Downward Expansion	-92	88
2024-04-26	77.59	81.34	-13.63	75	Downward Expansion	-60	59
2024-04-19	76.70	81.42	-14.80	65	Downward Expansion	-61	65
2024-04-12	74.77	81.59	-17.72	97	Downward Expansion	-77	74
2024-04-05	75.53	81.90	-17.55	95	Downward Expansion	-77	72
2024-03-29	79.34	82.13	-13.04	25	Downward Expansion	-57	62
2024-03-22	78.59	82.26	-13.28	8	Downward Expansion	-59	61
2024-03-15	77.65	82.36	-12.39	12	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2024-03-08	78.03	82.53	-11.42	76	Downward Expansion	-63	30
2024-03-01	81.02	82.76	-8.16	50	Downward Expansion	-27	22
2024-02-23	83.83	82.92	-5.25	0	Downward Expansion	-12	17
2024-02-16	81.02	82.95	-9.06	0	Downward Expansion	-33	19
2024-02-09	84.49	83.08	-3.99	8	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2024-02-02	79.66	83.03	-11.72	0	Downward Expansion	-60	58
2024-01-26	79.66	83.07	-12.30	0	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2024-01-19	79.76	83.19	-9.55	75	Downward Expansion	-63	68
2024-01-12	78.27	83.29	-12.82	11	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-01-05	79.11	83.55	-12.96	49	Downward Expansion	-66	63
2023-12-29	80.87	83.70	-11.44	0	Deceleration	-21	32
2023-12-22	80.87	83.84	-10.96	24	Rotation Up	-20	30
2023-12-15	83.11	83.97	-7.71	6	Rotation Up	17	19
2023-12-08	83.67	84.20	-5.90	7	Rotation Up	35	25
2023-12-01	84.04	84.38	-5.52	10	Rotation Up	29	56
2023-11-24	87.39	84.54	-0.05	0	Rotation Up	36	68
2023-11-17	90.92	84.76	3.36	63	Rotation Up	54	73
2023-11-10	89.44	84.71	3.99	0	Rotation Up	41	43
2023-11-03	89.19	84.71	4.35	137	Rotation Up	4	15
2023-10-27	81.51	84.65	0.65	0	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2023-10-20	82.44	84.85	1.35	0	Downward Expansion	-58	52
2023-10-13	80.77	84.86	-4.39	40	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2023-10-06	80.96	84.99	-3.61	0	Downward Expansion	-62	52

Price vs TrendBelow-5.4%

Trend directionRising+4.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+2.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-12.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-16.7%

Relative strength directionWeakening-12.9%

Price momentumPositive+9.8%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.51×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-46 / ±100

-108.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

69 /100

+26.2 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

SBUX Directional State ↗ SBUX Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up17

Upward Expansion31

Deceleration48

Rotation Down73

Downward Expansion53

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 11%Upward Expansion 30%Deceleration 9%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 37%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Down	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-09-18	Developing	-8.1%
Deceleration	2026-06-19	2026-06-26	New	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-01	2026-06-12	Developing	-0.3%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-04-24	New	+2.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-04-03	Developing	-4.5%
Rotation Up	2026-01-23	2026-01-30	New	-7.3%
Balance	2025-11-28	2026-01-16	Developing	+6.6%
Downward Expansion	2025-09-19	2025-11-21	Developing	+3.8%
Balance	2025-07-11	2025-09-12	Developing	-12.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-07-04	Developing	+9.9%
Rotation Down	2025-04-04	2025-04-18	New	-5.0%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-03-28	New	-0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-03-14	Developing	-16.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing26

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution56

Stage 4 · Declining56

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3C · Breakdown watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 95/100
Current Relative Strength: -16.66
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +9.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -22.0%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 100th percentile17 in cohort

Test SBUX trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.33×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.51×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore SBUX Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 85.25falling

Slow Activity EUR 88.67falling

Trend Reference EUR 87.31-5.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 80.35+2.8% close margin

Structural low EUR 74.82shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Complete bearish ordering below the Trend Line confirms Downward Expansion; a repaired fast/slow cross and upside acceptance cancel the failure.

Range context +3.1%

Annualized volatility +23.3%

From structural high -12.6%

From structural low +23.9%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	1	-2.7%-2.7% to -2.7%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-12.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Intermediate	1	+6.1%+6.1% to +6.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-10.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	1	-1.5%-1.5% to -1.5%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-27.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	+7.4%+7.4% to +7.4%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-37.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

SBUX Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map