Weekly structural research · TAI · Consumer Defensive

1217 Stage Analysis

AGV Products Corporation

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close TWD 9.95Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^TWII

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Balance after decline

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 32−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 15/100directional strength

Maturity 30/100lifecycle context

Confidence 64/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -7.5%TWD 10.75 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	9.95	9.91	-28.14	1506177	Balance	32	15
2026-10-02	9.94	9.91	-27.85	1477633	Balance	34	17
2026-09-25	9.95	9.92	-28.06	1691166	Balance	18	12
2026-09-18	9.98	9.93	-27.51	1773676	Balance	22	20
2026-09-11	9.96	9.94	-27.06	1432342	Balance	20	24
2026-09-04	9.95	9.95	-28.73	395106	Balance	20	21
2026-08-28	9.97	9.96	-29.29	356314	Balance	-10	6
2026-08-21	10.05	9.98	-28.06	699742	Balance	-12	7
2026-08-14	9.96	9.99	-30.56	875221	Balance	-22	12
2026-08-07	9.76	10.00	-30.44	340117	Balance	-37	16
2026-07-31	9.95	10.01	-28.24	954700	Balance	-10	12
2026-07-24	9.98	10.02	-29.81	393015	Balance	-8	17
2026-07-17	9.96	10.03	-29.26	766483	Balance	-11	15
2026-07-10	9.99	10.04	-34.10	0	Balance	-10	14
2026-07-03	10.15	10.05	-35.96	3820320	Downward Expansion	-8	14
2026-06-26	9.76	10.05	-36.26	2830579	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2026-06-19	9.88	10.06	-38.95	2022616	Downward Expansion	-35	23
2026-06-12	9.87	10.06	-36.75	3222227	Downward Expansion	-45	32
2026-06-05	9.92	10.06	-38.58	6639292	Downward Expansion	-61	58
2026-05-29	9.72	10.07	-40.28	3867892	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2026-05-22	9.42	10.08	-39.66	2945371	Downward Expansion	-84	89
2026-05-15	9.50	10.11	-38.42	3504757	Downward Expansion	-86	83
2026-05-08	9.66	10.13	-38.99	4376102	Downward Expansion	-79	62
2026-05-01	9.90	10.15	-34.16	3250909	Downward Expansion	-63	34
2026-04-24	10.05	10.16	-34.15	3373653	Downward Expansion	-41	22
2026-04-17	10.15	10.17	-30.70	2905993	Downward Expansion	-49	27
2026-04-10	10.00	10.18	-29.98	1227592	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2026-04-03	10.05	10.21	-24.39	1682028	Downward Expansion	-55	54
2026-03-27	10.05	10.23	-26.35	2398987	Downward Expansion	-55	56
2026-03-20	9.95	10.25	-28.67	3151761	Balance	-67	55
2026-03-13	10.00	10.28	-28.73	2356692	Balance	-61	34
2026-03-06	10.15	10.29	-28.79	3605036	Balance	-38	21
2026-02-27	10.25	10.30	-32.40	3973980	Balance	-22	11
2026-02-13	10.29	10.31	-29.05	1564683	Balance	-9	10
2026-02-06	10.20	10.32	-26.31	1849517	Rotation Up	-11	16
2026-01-30	10.34	10.32	-26.42	2831839	Rotation Up	16	27
2026-01-23	10.44	10.32	-25.96	3797491	Balance	27	27
2026-01-16	10.34	10.32	-25.85	3202774	Balance	-1	9
2026-01-09	10.20	10.32	-24.67	2020034	Balance	-12	13
2026-01-02	10.25	10.33	-22.36	970828	Downward Expansion	-12	15
2025-12-26	10.29	10.34	-20.28	1263862	Downward Expansion	-19	20
2025-12-19	10.29	10.35	-18.23	1919530	Downward Expansion	-27	22
2025-12-12	10.20	10.37	-20.82	1584006	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2025-12-05	10.25	10.40	-20.24	1492332	Downward Expansion	-47	33
2025-11-28	10.15	10.43	-20.45	1765533	Downward Expansion	-62	49
2025-11-21	9.95	10.46	-18.88	1998065	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2025-11-14	9.95	10.49	-22.13	2070430	Downward Expansion	-73	71
2025-11-07	10.00	10.52	-22.82	2492846	Downward Expansion	-72	64
2025-10-31	10.05	10.55	-24.45	1938144	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2025-10-24	10.15	10.60	-22.18	1463202	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2025-10-17	10.15	10.63	-21.88	2774149	Downward Expansion	-70	73
2025-10-10	10.25	10.67	-21.52	1548411	Downward Expansion	-64	70
2025-10-03	10.20	10.70	-20.79	1624498	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2025-09-26	10.25	10.74	-17.19	2928405	Balance	-57	51
2025-09-19	10.39	10.79	-16.43	2301806	Balance	-42	21
2025-09-12	10.49	10.82	-15.74	3165010	Balance	-18	15
2025-09-05	10.68	10.86	-11.20	2969920	Balance	-7	19
2025-08-29	10.78	10.88	-9.75	3559827	Downward Expansion	-3	14
2025-08-22	10.73	10.88	-8.62	3381536	Downward Expansion	-25	18
2025-08-15	10.73	10.89	-10.94	4495207	Downward Expansion	-34	22
2025-08-08	10.44	10.90	-12.50	1679419	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-08-01	10.39	10.92	-11.10	2635944	Downward Expansion	-48	37
2025-07-25	10.44	10.94	-10.76	2142125	Downward Expansion	-57	44
2025-07-18	10.49	10.96	-10.64	1903876	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-07-11	10.39	10.98	-9.21	1370207	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2025-07-04	10.34	11.01	-9.08	1650264	Downward Expansion	-66	71
2025-06-27	10.44	11.04	-8.59	3162002	Downward Expansion	-64	72
2025-06-20	10.25	11.07	-8.26	2268855	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2025-06-13	10.44	11.10	-6.79	1992639	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2025-06-06	10.54	11.13	-4.31	2871137	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2025-05-30	10.78	11.15	-0.87	2403784	Downward Expansion	-59	30
2025-05-23	10.93	11.17	-1.01	2216092	Downward Expansion	-53	26
2025-05-16	10.93	11.18	-2.04	6461065	Downward Expansion	-54	27
2025-05-09	11.27	11.20	5.31	7913486	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-05-02	10.98	11.21	3.10	2233698	Downward Expansion	-55	51
2025-04-25	10.98	11.24	7.73	4839194	Downward Expansion	-56	48
2025-04-18	10.87	11.26	9.20	5153650	Balance	-65	47
2025-04-11	10.91	11.29	9.04	9635541	Balance	-54	31
2025-04-04	11.29	11.31	3.51	2180181	Balance	-12	14
2025-03-28	11.24	11.33	1.57	3285368	Balance	-27	15
2025-03-21	11.20	11.33	-1.68	2073147	Rotation Up	-14	12
2025-03-14	11.24	11.34	-0.35	6292063	Rotation Up	17	33
2025-03-07	11.48	11.33	-1.13	2485362	Rotation Up	24	49
2025-02-28	11.53	11.34	-3.03	2186631	Balance	31	38
2025-02-21	11.53	11.36	-6.09	2222122	Balance	11	23
2025-02-14	11.43	11.36	-4.93	3913197	Downward Expansion	-11	12
2025-02-07	11.29	11.38	-7.81	3744809	Downward Expansion	-35	26
2025-01-24	11.01	11.43	-10.74	1216940	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-01-17	11.01	11.46	-9.74	3519653	Downward Expansion	-59	45
2025-01-10	10.91	11.48	-10.40	3722016	Downward Expansion	-73	66
2025-01-03	11.01	11.50	-9.70	2320777	Downward Expansion	-68	63
2024-12-27	11.20	11.52	-10.10	2303685	Downward Expansion	-60	60
2024-12-20	10.91	11.53	-9.86	3528089	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2024-12-13	11.10	11.54	-10.79	3546924	Downward Expansion	-69	55
2024-12-06	11.24	11.56	-10.76	2318431	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2024-11-29	11.24	11.57	-7.49	2338843	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-11-22	11.29	11.57	-10.09	2957778	Downward Expansion	-55	46
2024-11-15	11.34	11.57	-9.54	3539829	Downward Expansion	-58	59
2024-11-08	11.20	11.56	-14.16	2494546	Balance	-63	66
2024-11-01	11.24	11.56	-11.41	2817173	Balance	-30	46
2024-10-25	11.24	11.55	-14.13	3304349	Balance	-29	36
2024-10-18	11.29	11.54	-14.86	4163623	Balance	-15	17
2024-10-11	11.39	11.53	-12.51	3481337	Balance	18	8
2024-10-04	11.72	11.51	-8.13	3578927	Balance	36	20
2024-09-27	11.76	11.48	-10.36	3697012	Balance	36	20
2024-09-20	11.76	11.45	-8.24	4599699	Balance	35	20
2024-09-13	11.72	11.43	-7.45	4367699	Balance	28	13
2024-09-06	11.62	11.41	-7.26	7346319	Balance	11	10
2024-08-30	11.81	11.39	-9.71	7604717	Balance	15	20
2024-08-23	11.29	11.36	-13.78	3346871	Balance	-18	27
2024-08-16	11.24	11.35	-15.53	5063743	Balance	9	18
2024-08-09	11.10	11.33	-13.80	9360223	Upward Expansion	9	14
2024-08-02	11.76	11.32	-10.03	5287473	Upward Expansion	43	29
2024-07-26	12.00	11.30	-10.90	5130946	Upward Expansion	59	47
2024-07-19	11.76	11.28	-16.07	8872047	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-07-12	12.05	11.25	-18.32	10668139	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-07-05	12.52	11.22	-14.26	14404052	Upward Expansion	90	88
2024-06-28	12.14	11.16	-15.37	21159430	Upward Expansion	84	72
2024-06-21	11.67	11.12	-19.87	6838336	Upward Expansion	69	45
2024-06-14	11.48	11.10	-18.90	3246039	Upward Expansion	57	37
2024-06-07	11.43	11.08	-17.15	4528325	Upward Expansion	58	45
2024-05-31	11.48	11.06	-14.41	4504778	Upward Expansion	62	57
2024-05-24	11.34	11.06	-17.21	5204589	Upward Expansion	62	67
2024-05-17	11.67	11.05	-13.85	6290750	Upward Expansion	79	76
2024-05-10	11.39	11.02	-13.99	5096237	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-05-03	11.48	11.03	-11.96	11043583	Balance	77	65
2024-04-26	11.20	11.02	-13.51	4408414	Balance	33	31
2024-04-19	11.10	11.03	-11.89	8634226	Balance	15	14
2024-04-12	11.03	11.04	-17.76	4014933	Balance	-20	12
2024-04-05	11.03	11.06	-16.48	3302397	Balance	-26	12
2024-03-29	11.03	11.07	-16.61	5344808	Balance	-41	23
2024-03-22	10.89	11.10	-17.66	5757653	Balance	-48	35
2024-03-15	10.80	11.15	-16.35	4862783	Balance	-55	31
2024-03-08	10.85	11.19	-16.71	5622669	Balance	-51	23
2024-03-01	10.94	11.24	-12.54	3240922	Balance	-23	11
2024-02-23	11.03	11.32	-11.82	6233556	Balance	-17	12
2024-02-16	11.12	11.38	-9.92	3327295	Downward Expansion	-29	15
2024-02-09	11.03	11.41	-8.27	1361220	Downward Expansion	-48	30
2024-02-02	11.08	11.43	-7.77	3852573	Downward Expansion	-50	34
2024-01-26	10.89	11.45	-9.02	3761927	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2024-01-19	10.66	11.48	-9.48	4759415	Downward Expansion	-66	38
2024-01-12	10.89	11.49	-6.73	3660918	Downward Expansion	-45	23
2024-01-05	11.12	11.49	-4.91	9337356	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2023-12-29	11.17	11.48	-6.82	5207413	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-12-22	11.08	11.45	-6.00	6427818	Downward Expansion	-56	38
2023-12-15	10.94	11.43	-7.72	4903826	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2023-12-08	10.89	11.42	-6.62	4115297	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2023-12-01	10.94	11.40	-6.50	5957320	Downward Expansion	-33	44
2023-11-24	11.03	11.39	-4.86	5381909	Rotation Down	-30	35
2023-11-17	10.98	11.36	-4.79	29706877	Rotation Down	-31	41
2023-11-10	10.85	11.33	-2.99	14101518	Rotation Down	-31	47
2023-11-03	11.26	11.32	1.82	14070095	Rotation Down	-19	31
2023-10-27	11.03	11.30	2.15	8111445	Deceleration	-26	39
2023-10-20	10.94	11.28	-0.42	15868568	Deceleration	-10	24
2023-10-13	11.49	11.25	2.65	16850724	Deceleration	5	13
2023-10-06	11.40	11.21	3.65	14905478	Deceleration	4	14

Price vs TrendAbove+0.4%

Trend directionFalling-1.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-7.5%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+1.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-28.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+6.0%

Price momentumNegative-0.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.12×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

32 / ±100

+12.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

15 /100

-8.3 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1217 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance64

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion58

Deceleration81

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 36%Rotation Up 3%Upward Expansion 9%Deceleration 3%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 47%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-07-10	2026-10-09	Established	-0.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-03-27	2026-07-03	Established	+1.0%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-03-20	Developing	-3.3%
Rotation Up	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	-1.4%
Balance	2026-01-09	2026-01-23	New	+2.4%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-01-02	Established	+0.5%
Balance	2025-09-05	2025-09-26	New	-4.1%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-25	2025-08-29	Established	-1.8%
Balance	2025-03-28	2025-04-18	New	-3.4%
Rotation Up	2025-03-07	2025-03-21	New	-2.5%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-02-28	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-15	2025-02-14	Established	+0.8%
Balance	2024-08-16	2024-11-08	Established	-0.4%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-10	2024-08-09	Established	-2.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing74

Stage 2 · Advancing32

Stage 3 · Distribution49

Stage 4 · Declining68

Legacy result: Stage 1 · Stage 1B · Basing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^TWII

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 17/100
Current Relative Strength: -28.14
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -0.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -39.7%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 40th percentile10 in cohort

Test 1217 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.86×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.12×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1217 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity TWD 9.95falling

Slow Activity TWD 9.92rising

Trend Reference TWD 9.91+0.4% close margin

Current Fair Value TWD 10.75-7.5% close margin

Structural low TWD 9.32shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +1.2%

Annualized volatility +10.8%

From structural high -6.0%

From structural low +6.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^TWII	Regime survived	Read
Near term	21	-0.1%-7.3% to +14.7%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-3.1%	+47.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	8	-0.4%-8.1% to +12.4%	+37.5%	+37.5%	-5.6%	+12.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-0.4%-6.5% to +7.4%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-11.6%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+4.5%-12.0% to +5.3%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-17.5%	+66.7%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1217 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map