Weekly structural research · SHZ · Utilities

000605 Stage Analysis

Bohai Water Industry Co.,Ltd

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close CNY 6.01Tenure NewBenchmark 399001.SZ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -9−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 8/100directional strength

Maturity 16/100lifecycle context

Confidence 65/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -6.2%CNY 6.41 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	6.01	6.17	1.40	7232120	Deceleration	-9	8
2026-10-02	6.04	6.22	-0.17	9563534	Deceleration	-10	8
2026-09-25	5.95	6.26	-5.03	13108942	Deceleration	-20	13
2026-09-18	5.78	6.31	-10.25	18252824	Downward Expansion	-24	16
2026-09-11	5.92	6.35	-7.50	17930923	Downward Expansion	-18	19
2026-09-04	5.98	6.40	-7.30	4219605	Downward Expansion	-27	28
2026-08-28	5.99	6.44	-10.47	3428140	Downward Expansion	-33	31
2026-08-21	5.89	6.47	-13.44	4224000	Downward Expansion	-38	27
2026-08-14	5.98	6.50	-14.39	2877300	Downward Expansion	-46	39
2026-08-07	5.77	6.53	-17.95	2799736	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2026-07-31	5.57	6.56	-17.36	3581420	Downward Expansion	-65	61
2026-07-24	5.17	6.60	-25.10	3854200	Downward Expansion	-81	82
2026-07-17	5.55	6.66	-20.07	6105300	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2026-07-10	5.52	6.70	-28.31	6399422	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2026-07-03	5.60	6.75	-30.65	5088720	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2026-06-26	5.45	6.81	-34.09	4556420	Downward Expansion	-85	90
2026-06-19	5.67	6.86	-33.29	18433816	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2026-06-12	6.10	6.93	-24.03	3811180	Downward Expansion	-71	71
2026-06-05	6.24	6.97	-24.87	4720720	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2026-05-29	6.25	7.01	-26.77	32244096	Balance	-66	40
2026-05-22	6.79	7.04	-21.58	26541580	Balance	-34	18
2026-05-15	6.90	7.05	-20.86	26531110	Balance	-27	16
2026-05-08	7.20	7.04	-18.28	19842501	Balance	-16	10
2026-05-01	7.18	7.03	-16.82	27544393	Downward Expansion	-35	19
2026-04-24	6.76	7.02	-21.57	21886300	Downward Expansion	-56	54
2026-04-17	6.71	7.03	-22.57	24841400	Downward Expansion	-56	53
2026-04-10	6.83	7.06	-18.67	25250260	Balance	-50	38
2026-04-03	6.42	7.06	-18.72	31299304	Balance	-61	39
2026-03-27	7.07	7.08	-13.73	44327801	Balance	32	14
2026-03-20	6.90	7.09	-17.05	29582390	Rotation Up	9	15
2026-03-13	7.33	7.10	-15.01	28897383	Rotation Up	62	59
2026-03-06	7.38	7.10	-14.30	34681293	Rotation Up	40	48
2026-02-27	7.35	7.10	-17.02	18829484	Balance	29	33
2026-02-13	7.16	7.10	-17.33	22092479	Balance	6	17
2026-02-06	7.20	7.10	-16.26	27160650	Balance	-12	17
2026-01-30	7.13	7.10	-19.31	28973321	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2026-01-23	7.13	7.10	-21.13	23086262	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2026-01-16	6.84	7.09	-24.00	25001906	Downward Expansion	-56	47
2026-01-09	6.84	7.09	-23.72	23854200	Downward Expansion	-59	60
2026-01-02	6.71	7.09	-22.44	10960351	Downward Expansion	-63	66
2025-12-26	6.73	7.11	-23.20	17483280	Balance	-64	58
2025-12-19	6.81	7.12	-20.15	24422943	Balance	-30	32
2025-12-12	6.72	7.15	-22.50	27142006	Balance	-32	21
2025-12-05	7.14	7.18	-17.73	33021180	Balance	15	11
2025-11-28	7.39	7.19	-14.52	38617730	Balance	26	31
2025-11-21	7.03	7.19	-16.44	33654612	Balance	14	22
2025-11-14	7.60	7.20	-16.06	26040943	Balance	37	33
2025-11-07	7.46	7.18	-19.23	26187436	Balance	10	15
2025-10-31	7.28	7.16	-21.39	27087400	Downward Expansion	-20	10
2025-10-24	7.26	7.17	-21.03	40384988	Downward Expansion	-38	20
2025-10-17	6.89	7.17	-21.44	23956364	Downward Expansion	-52	48
2025-10-10	6.88	7.21	-25.39	8924994	Downward Expansion	-56	52
2025-10-03	6.87	7.23	-26.47	9634269	Balance	-56	37
2025-09-26	6.88	7.26	-24.61	32017669	Balance	-56	40
2025-09-19	6.97	7.28	-22.84	105905226	Balance	-44	23
2025-09-12	7.48	7.29	-16.29	53949248	Balance	-11	6
2025-09-05	6.93	7.30	-20.32	40362259	Balance	-47	29
2025-08-29	7.10	7.32	-19.00	44228741	Balance	-32	13
2025-08-22	7.33	7.33	-12.68	38624880	Balance	-7	9
2025-08-15	7.17	7.32	-10.51	41628927	Balance	-15	11
2025-08-08	7.38	7.33	-3.53	27811824	Balance	-15	14
2025-08-01	7.28	7.32	-3.36	44738438	Balance	-22	16
2025-07-25	7.35	7.32	-3.68	37205180	Balance	-23	15
2025-07-18	7.20	7.34	-3.10	28303058	Downward Expansion	-35	17
2025-07-11	7.20	7.38	-0.67	29081420	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2025-07-04	7.10	7.43	0.11	31837620	Downward Expansion	-54	48
2025-06-27	6.99	7.50	0.20	33852987	Downward Expansion	-54	53
2025-06-20	6.69	7.56	-0.07	31352220	Balance	-65	58
2025-06-13	6.94	7.79	2.95	49070330	Balance	-56	32
2025-06-06	7.14	7.84	5.82	38789532	Balance	-48	21
2025-05-30	7.06	7.87	6.75	115316242	Balance	-39	18
2025-05-23	7.78	7.81	17.09	223113545	Balance	-17	14
2025-05-16	7.56	7.74	13.98	30540100	Balance	-31	17
2025-05-09	7.54	7.66	14.92	30111820	Downward Expansion	-46	23
2025-05-02	7.31	7.58	14.68	41379800	Downward Expansion	-26	41
2025-04-25	7.38	7.52	16.36	23555660	Rotation Down	-27	46
2025-04-18	7.13	7.45	14.85	29958332	Rotation Down	-31	49
2025-04-11	6.84	7.36	10.45	36482221	Balance	-41	35
2025-04-04	7.43	7.27	14.31	20629634	Balance	-1	4
2025-03-28	7.35	7.17	11.06	43332919	Deceleration	17	14
2025-03-21	7.91	7.07	19.14	70937404	Deceleration	39	24
2025-03-14	7.76	6.96	14.52	42369253	Deceleration	26	20
2025-03-07	7.64	6.85	14.84	46704747	Deceleration	25	26
2025-02-28	7.44	6.75	15.03	40605966	Deceleration	24	30
2025-02-21	7.39	6.66	11.02	40589688	Deceleration	24	15
2025-02-14	7.68	6.57	18.50	36735880	Deceleration	16	10
2025-02-07	7.56	6.46	19.54	18463260	Deceleration	15	12
2025-01-31	7.25	6.36	19.74	5565280	Deceleration	14	15
2025-01-24	7.27	6.28	18.42	31592738	Deceleration	25	21
2025-01-17	7.43	6.19	22.66	33596694	Deceleration	27	24
2025-01-10	7.11	6.09	21.70	39903334	Deceleration	31	26
2025-01-03	7.22	6.01	22.28	47325040	Deceleration	36	25
2024-12-27	7.96	5.92	25.39	62196124	Deceleration	43	32
2024-12-20	8.31	5.83	31.30	81595100	Upward Expansion	58	47
2024-12-13	8.78	5.72	38.33	94703304	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-12-06	9.08	5.61	42.74	153982444	Upward Expansion	67	77
2024-11-29	8.91	5.48	43.37	248127680	Upward Expansion	68	88
2024-11-22	13.49	5.35	122.11	298910325	Upward Expansion	100	100
2024-11-15	8.38	5.05	36.99	291430133	Upward Expansion	96	98
2024-11-08	8.07	4.92	27.76	104247438	Upward Expansion	98	97
2024-11-01	5.44	4.82	-7.61	43170021	Rotation Up	69	75
2024-10-25	5.50	4.82	-8.35	42216211	Rotation Up	49	73
2024-10-18	5.22	4.80	-11.00	46709482	Rotation Up	36	59
2024-10-11	5.30	4.80	-7.18	72492727	Rotation Up	35	50
2024-10-04	5.46	4.79	-8.88	28583827	Rotation Up	41	39
2024-09-27	5.06	4.76	-6.95	55886509	Downward Expansion	-9	7
2024-09-20	4.42	4.75	-4.42	10001313	Downward Expansion	-59	57
2024-09-13	4.38	4.76	-4.32	14071381	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-09-06	4.32	4.75	-7.42	15623721	Downward Expansion	-68	62
2024-08-30	4.47	4.78	-7.12	17617320	Downward Expansion	-55	36
2024-08-23	4.38	4.84	-7.41	15040640	Downward Expansion	-63	33
2024-08-16	4.60	4.90	-4.89	15281682	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-08-09	4.68	4.97	-3.85	13491846	Downward Expansion	-39	26
2024-08-02	4.73	5.03	-4.76	21402403	Downward Expansion	-50	31
2024-07-26	4.57	5.09	-8.60	19041705	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2024-07-19	4.43	5.15	-14.59	17363004	Downward Expansion	-65	42
2024-07-12	4.68	5.22	-9.57	25373942	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2024-07-05	4.64	5.28	-8.84	19502474	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2024-06-28	4.60	5.33	-11.18	24216893	Downward Expansion	-61	60
2024-06-21	4.56	5.38	-14.09	23366260	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-06-14	4.68	5.44	-13.85	19134629	Downward Expansion	-59	40
2024-06-07	4.63	5.48	-15.02	35894904	Downward Expansion	-41	20
2024-05-31	5.07	5.53	-8.17	18009720	Downward Expansion	-14	19
2024-05-24	5.21	5.56	-6.36	23778567	Downward Expansion	-18	18
2024-05-17	5.34	5.58	-6.94	41670801	Downward Expansion	-31	17
2024-05-10	5.25	5.59	-8.68	40065996	Downward Expansion	-51	35
2024-05-03	4.91	5.62	-13.19	12299400	Downward Expansion	-54	41
2024-04-26	4.66	5.66	-16.62	22964117	Downward Expansion	-58	38
2024-04-19	4.43	5.70	-19.17	42174416	Downward Expansion	-56	33
2024-04-12	5.05	5.76	-7.32	21792358	Downward Expansion	-36	21
2024-04-05	5.31	5.79	-5.74	17869329	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-03-29	5.12	5.84	-7.67	25672077	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2024-03-22	5.10	5.88	-9.66	29433196	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2024-03-15	4.96	5.93	-12.61	31695973	Downward Expansion	-61	51
2024-03-08	4.67	5.98	-15.82	31141555	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2024-03-01	4.72	6.04	-15.68	50968101	Downward Expansion	-67	79
2024-02-23	4.78	6.10	-11.13	49590545	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2024-02-09	4.05	6.16	-22.69	71238205	Rotation Down	-85	77
2024-02-02	5.02	6.24	4.72	38068840	Rotation Down	-72	41
2024-01-26	6.38	6.28	22.75	46072755	Balance	8	10
2024-01-19	6.05	6.26	16.72	68373676	Rotation Up	35	21
2024-01-12	6.73	6.27	27.54	67118620	Rotation Up	66	44
2024-01-05	6.69	6.25	25.96	109225636	Rotation Up	32	40
2023-12-29	6.36	6.24	15.34	32167169	Rotation Up	19	36
2023-12-22	6.33	6.24	18.95	35334646	Rotation Up	20	39
2023-12-15	6.65	6.25	23.21	52973299	Rotation Up	40	47
2023-12-08	6.31	6.24	15.37	47780020	Balance	19	22
2023-12-01	6.26	6.23	12.61	20381669	Balance	-14	17
2023-11-24	6.19	6.21	10.35	13705240	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2023-11-17	6.12	6.20	7.85	14669096	Downward Expansion	-33	20
2023-11-10	6.13	6.19	8.33	19436842	Downward Expansion	-40	24
2023-11-03	6.07	6.19	8.70	18589272	Downward Expansion	-55	39
2023-10-27	6.05	6.19	9.45	27532453	Downward Expansion	-58	53
2023-10-20	5.62	6.20	4.10	16540577	Rotation Down	-78	73
2023-10-13	5.74	6.22	1.20	20831760	Rotation Down	-49	57
2023-09-29	6.10	6.24	7.04	12146273	Rotation Down	-19	42

Price vs TrendBelow-2.6%

Trend directionFalling-6.0%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-6.2%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+8.3%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+1.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+29.7%

Price momentumNegative-12.0%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.74×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-9 / ±100

+9.1 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

8 /100

-10.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

000605 Directional State ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance49

Rotation Up29

Upward Expansion33

Deceleration42

Rotation Down22

Downward Expansion43

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-09-29 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 26%Rotation Up 9%Upward Expansion 5%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 46%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	+1.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-05	2026-09-18	Established	-7.3%
Balance	2026-05-08	2026-05-29	New	-13.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-04-17	2026-05-01	New	+7.1%
Balance	2026-03-27	2026-04-10	New	-3.4%
Rotation Up	2026-03-06	2026-03-20	New	-6.5%
Balance	2026-02-06	2026-02-27	New	+2.1%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-30	Developing	+6.3%
Balance	2025-11-07	2025-12-26	Developing	-9.8%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-10-31	New	+5.8%
Balance	2025-07-25	2025-10-03	Developing	-6.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-27	2025-07-18	New	+3.0%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-06-20	Developing	-11.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+3.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing70

Stage 2 · Advancing19

Stage 3 · Distribution17

Stage 4 · Declining81

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus 399001.SZ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 76/100
Current Relative Strength: 1.40
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -12.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -0.4%
Utilities regime cohort: 50th percentile6 in cohort

Test 000605 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.84×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.74×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 000605 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CNY 5.97rising

Slow Activity CNY 5.96falling

Trend Reference CNY 6.17-2.6% close margin

Current Fair Value CNY 6.41-6.2% close margin

Structural low CNY 5.16shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.7%

Annualized volatility +26.9%

From structural high -21.8%

From structural low +16.5%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs 399001.SZ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	6	+1.4%-9.8% to +7.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	-0.2%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	-4.9%-7.6% to -1.1%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-5.5%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	-9.9%-12.2% to -7.6%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-10.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-8.2%-15.4% to -1.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-15.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

000605 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map