Weekly structural research · STO · Industrials

ALIG Stage Analysis

Alimak Group AB (publ)

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close SEK 120.80Tenure NewBenchmark ^OMX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 34−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 23/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 77/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +5.3%SEK 114.73 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	120.80	116.34	-11.70	179947	Deceleration	34	23
2026-09-18	120.60	116.41	-11.85	223148	Upward Expansion	43	32
2026-09-11	125.00	116.53	-9.30	272317	Upward Expansion	58	44
2026-09-04	128.40	116.47	-8.62	280372	Upward Expansion	63	54
2026-08-28	132.60	116.77	-7.76	403644	Upward Expansion	81	81
2026-08-21	125.20	116.76	-12.59	39288	Rotation Up	66	79
2026-08-14	128.60	117.06	-10.52	511335	Rotation Up	45	75
2026-08-07	128.00	117.55	-12.73	57745	Rotation Up	49	75
2026-07-31	127.60	118.02	-12.10	129896	Rotation Up	51	67
2026-07-24	124.80	118.37	-13.66	45418	Rotation Up	38	55
2026-07-17	125.00	118.84	-12.92	153374	Balance	40	50
2026-07-10	113.00	119.27	-22.69	59098	Balance	-1	21
2026-07-03	120.00	120.21	-20.44	60866	Balance	10	25
2026-06-26	119.00	120.94	-19.46	202002	Downward Expansion	5	15
2026-06-19	116.40	121.69	-22.45	1090268	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2026-06-12	109.80	122.30	-25.90	85514	Downward Expansion	-40	28
2026-06-05	109.20	123.04	-26.98	216163	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2026-05-29	111.60	123.84	-26.49	1297515	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2026-05-22	107.40	124.67	-29.96	517168	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2026-05-15	106.00	125.82	-28.90	342134	Downward Expansion	-67	54
2026-05-08	107.60	127.12	-29.20	650499	Downward Expansion	-51	40
2026-05-01	105.77	128.44	-30.52	456527	Downward Expansion	-59	44
2026-04-24	112.56	130.11	-27.44	322750	Downward Expansion	-50	46
2026-04-17	115.66	131.39	-27.57	441163	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2026-04-10	110.23	132.74	-29.69	280327	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2026-04-03	104.60	134.49	-30.43	1231593	Downward Expansion	-73	89
2026-03-27	103.63	136.09	-29.01	2392891	Downward Expansion	-83	93
2026-03-20	104.02	137.73	-29.14	714388	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2026-03-13	109.26	139.47	-29.74	871593	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2026-03-06	117.99	141.07	-24.98	738836	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2026-02-27	122.65	142.40	-26.72	484401	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2026-02-20	124.20	143.69	-25.15	703183	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2026-02-13	123.23	144.93	-24.56	1793112	Downward Expansion	-81	75
2026-02-06	137.40	145.88	-16.12	1058576	Downward Expansion	-53	45
2026-01-30	132.35	146.32	-16.66	609053	Downward Expansion	-69	47
2026-01-23	134.29	146.76	-14.99	438348	Downward Expansion	-64	32
2026-01-16	143.22	147.03	-9.99	455979	Downward Expansion	-34	17
2026-01-09	142.06	146.82	-8.60	359330	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2026-01-02	138.17	146.66	-8.01	142208	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2025-12-26	138.95	146.71	-6.35	149901	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2025-12-19	137.79	146.59	-6.69	330330	Downward Expansion	-40	22
2025-12-12	141.28	146.38	-3.44	319451	Rotation Down	-40	24
2025-12-05	141.86	146.13	-2.99	1250714	Rotation Down	-28	28
2025-11-28	141.67	145.53	-1.51	879392	Rotation Down	-34	44
2025-11-21	134.68	144.83	-3.09	433680	Rotation Down	-38	65
2025-11-14	131.77	143.96	-7.01	268530	Rotation Down	-40	67
2025-11-07	133.32	143.38	-4.98	750217	Rotation Down	-40	62
2025-10-31	136.43	142.73	-3.84	496926	Deceleration	-37	41
2025-10-24	141.86	141.98	-0.58	868636	Deceleration	-7	21
2025-10-17	144.97	141.49	5.17	483024	Deceleration	2	14
2025-10-10	147.49	141.09	7.16	337151	Deceleration	28	18
2025-10-03	155.64	140.56	12.67	617998	Deceleration	43	33
2025-09-26	150.98	139.71	13.48	744645	Deceleration	42	33
2025-09-19	156.22	139.26	18.11	221644	Deceleration	45	38
2025-09-12	162.63	138.50	24.39	1351535	Deceleration	63	48
2025-09-05	152.73	137.28	18.23	307213	Upward Expansion	46	42
2025-08-29	152.73	135.95	19.17	306444	Upward Expansion	60	54
2025-08-22	156.22	134.53	19.90	208982	Upward Expansion	64	63
2025-08-15	157.19	133.00	23.74	218149	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-08-08	158.16	131.36	27.18	202745	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-08-01	161.27	129.61	34.22	267960	Upward Expansion	82	92
2025-07-25	161.46	128.01	31.77	230321	Upward Expansion	89	93
2025-07-18	151.56	126.21	27.65	218394	Upward Expansion	78	85
2025-07-11	150.59	124.72	27.91	213361	Upward Expansion	83	84
2025-07-04	145.55	123.37	26.09	152983	Upward Expansion	76	70
2025-06-27	142.44	122.28	24.57	176540	Upward Expansion	72	67
2025-06-20	137.01	121.30	23.46	120775	Upward Expansion	64	68
2025-06-13	137.20	120.51	23.74	167566	Upward Expansion	66	72
2025-06-06	139.73	119.68	23.57	172167	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-05-30	135.26	118.91	21.50	344516	Upward Expansion	67	64
2025-05-23	131.38	118.28	19.46	269717	Deceleration	51	39
2025-05-16	133.90	117.52	19.21	328596	Deceleration	52	27
2025-05-09	123.81	116.83	15.10	315517	Deceleration	17	14
2025-05-02	120.71	116.43	12.12	431000	Deceleration	-14	22
2025-04-25	108.65	115.96	2.87	580663	Deceleration	-28	34
2025-04-18	114.14	115.87	11.73	168148	Deceleration	10	24
2025-04-11	113.95	115.48	16.07	639779	Deceleration	15	18
2025-04-04	113.95	115.00	16.35	477796	Upward Expansion	27	21
2025-03-28	127.02	114.41	17.42	225407	Upward Expansion	60	49
2025-03-21	133.07	113.58	19.72	319186	Upward Expansion	66	74
2025-03-14	131.56	112.58	16.78	795453	Upward Expansion	66	83
2025-03-07	130.23	111.78	14.29	392969	Upward Expansion	66	85
2025-02-28	137.43	110.91	21.51	438193	Upward Expansion	90	93
2025-02-21	133.45	109.81	18.78	437672	Upward Expansion	88	85
2025-02-14	125.88	108.95	13.03	449677	Deceleration	77	65
2025-02-07	113.01	108.22	4.97	313074	Deceleration	40	19
2025-01-31	109.98	108.20	1.25	230739	Deceleration	22	13
2025-01-24	110.36	108.07	1.85	375589	Deceleration	13	7
2025-01-17	108.09	108.02	2.01	898820	Deceleration	8	10
2025-01-10	105.63	108.04	3.68	161486	Deceleration	-1	10
2025-01-03	113.39	108.23	12.24	469744	Deceleration	34	20
2024-12-27	107.33	108.19	7.80	38370	Deceleration	15	16
2024-12-20	106.76	108.19	8.50	159992	Deceleration	19	14
2024-12-13	110.36	108.35	9.19	205884	Deceleration	37	22
2024-12-06	112.63	108.22	9.67	309962	Upward Expansion	42	27
2024-11-29	113.01	107.95	15.09	371352	Upward Expansion	54	37
2024-11-22	113.39	107.46	16.16	257540	Upward Expansion	57	53
2024-11-15	112.44	106.83	16.11	218826	Upward Expansion	58	54
2024-11-08	116.41	105.99	18.65	237897	Upward Expansion	70	70
2024-11-01	116.41	105.03	19.59	712377	Upward Expansion	72	66
2024-10-25	108.65	104.11	11.01	119952	Upward Expansion	55	50
2024-10-18	113.20	103.51	16.35	222597	Balance	65	46
2024-10-11	111.87	102.80	16.22	412288	Balance	50	32
2024-10-04	106.57	102.13	10.97	683628	Balance	31	15
2024-09-27	105.81	101.50	9.37	521738	Rotation Down	11	13
2024-09-20	102.60	100.96	9.18	696724	Rotation Down	-16	28
2024-09-13	99.38	100.45	8.58	363539	Deceleration	-19	30
2024-09-06	96.35	100.00	7.70	182950	Deceleration	-9	16
2024-08-30	102.22	99.71	9.73	748529	Deceleration	9	9
2024-08-23	103.16	99.19	12.82	461039	Deceleration	17	12
2024-08-16	107.33	98.58	19.15	73331	Deceleration	35	17
2024-08-09	104.30	97.71	20.09	176470	Deceleration	31	19
2024-08-02	104.30	96.94	20.45	115435	Deceleration	37	24
2024-07-26	107.71	96.00	19.68	161178	Deceleration	41	29
2024-07-19	104.11	94.93	16.71	177819	Upward Expansion	44	32
2024-07-12	112.25	93.95	23.54	178326	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-07-05	106.19	92.61	20.94	214714	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-06-28	108.84	91.49	23.91	243703	Upward Expansion	64	59
2024-06-21	108.46	90.31	23.88	345070	Upward Expansion	67	65
2024-06-14	111.49	89.12	28.55	534510	Upward Expansion	73	79
2024-06-07	112.06	87.78	26.89	196699	Upward Expansion	80	92
2024-05-31	107.52	86.23	23.44	220095	Upward Expansion	70	89
2024-05-24	111.49	84.73	27.73	210460	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-05-17	106.38	82.97	23.75	199116	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-05-10	104.49	81.30	21.04	196325	Upward Expansion	86	82
2024-05-03	98.43	79.84	18.58	204359	Deceleration	78	55
2024-04-26	94.40	78.64	13.38	338491	Deceleration	71	43
2024-04-19	87.20	77.54	7.49	180117	Upward Expansion	43	32
2024-04-12	87.84	76.80	8.37	205768	Upward Expansion	57	46
2024-04-05	88.77	76.05	9.84	237102	Upward Expansion	61	54
2024-03-29	90.52	75.25	11.71	127094	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-03-22	91.91	74.51	13.10	187564	Upward Expansion	73	66
2024-03-15	91.72	73.71	13.51	889879	Upward Expansion	77	67
2024-03-08	87.66	72.80	10.94	232363	Upward Expansion	65	63
2024-03-01	89.78	72.13	15.49	391685	Upward Expansion	77	69
2024-02-23	87.20	71.49	13.92	216426	Upward Expansion	71	79
2024-02-16	85.91	70.95	13.91	605853	Upward Expansion	68	86
2024-02-09	87.57	70.47	19.33	731445	Upward Expansion	82	93
2024-02-02	86.55	69.99	17.87	590712	Upward Expansion	85	94
2024-01-26	84.98	69.60	16.46	275158	Upward Expansion	87	93
2024-01-19	81.10	69.36	15.36	243012	Upward Expansion	78	86
2024-01-12	81.38	69.16	13.57	958645	Rotation Up	85	82
2024-01-05	75.93	69.03	7.41	309273	Rotation Up	44	50
2023-12-29	75.84	68.93	5.10	167598	Rotation Up	47	54
2023-12-22	74.73	68.80	4.96	447061	Rotation Up	37	59
2023-12-15	71.96	68.65	1.16	1051218	Rotation Up	27	61
2023-12-08	72.51	68.63	5.59	403692	Rotation Up	30	60
2023-12-01	73.62	68.52	10.71	254611	Rotation Up	37	47
2023-11-24	72.51	68.47	10.63	445435	Downward Expansion	34	39
2023-11-17	71.31	68.33	10.86	671264	Downward Expansion	-7	17
2023-11-10	65.68	68.21	6.75	868605	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2023-11-03	62.54	68.38	1.48	160650	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2023-10-27	58.56	68.56	-1.01	534243	Downward Expansion	-71	82
2023-10-20	56.44	68.83	-5.58	210273	Downward Expansion	-89	93
2023-10-13	60.60	68.86	-3.56	260443	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2023-10-06	62.44	68.88	1.36	409528	Rotation Down	-69	73

Price vs TrendAbove+3.8%

Trend directionFalling-2.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+5.3%

Fair Value directionMoving away-2.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-11.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.8%

Price momentumPositive+16.6%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.63×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

34 / ±100

-46.9 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

23 /100

-57.7 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

ALIG Directional State ↗ ALIG Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up23

Upward Expansion56

Deceleration91

Rotation Down31

Downward Expansion20

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 4%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 37%Deceleration 23%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-09-25	2026-09-25	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-9.0%
Rotation Up	2026-07-24	2026-08-21	Developing	+0.3%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	+4.2%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-19	2026-06-26	Extended	-13.6%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-12-12	Developing	+6.0%
Deceleration	2025-09-12	2025-10-31	Developing	-16.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-09-05	Established	+12.9%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+15.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-21	2025-04-04	Developing	-14.6%
Deceleration	2024-12-13	2025-02-14	Developing	+14.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2024-12-06	Developing	+3.7%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-10-18	New	+6.2%
Rotation Down	2024-09-20	2024-09-27	New	+3.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing52

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution48

Stage 4 · Declining56

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4C · Repair watch. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^OMX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 28/100
Current Relative Strength: -11.70
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +16.6%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +1.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 84th percentile25 in cohort

Test ALIG trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.58×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.63×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore ALIG Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity SEK 123.39falling

Slow Activity SEK 120.18rising

Trend Reference SEK 116.34+3.8% close margin

Current Fair Value SEK 114.73+5.3% close margin

Structural low SEK 102.27shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +5.1%

Annualized volatility +27.2%

From structural high -22.8%

From structural low +20.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^OMX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+2.4%-9.6% to +18.1%	+54.5%	+54.5%	+0.3%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+15.3%-13.1% to +32.2%	+83.3%	+83.3%	+13.0%	+16.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+3.7%-32.8% to +24.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+4.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	+15.1%+3.6% to +35.7%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+20.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

ALIG Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map