Weekly structural research · VIE · Consumer Defensive

WMT Stage Analysis

Walmart Inc.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 99.27Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^ATX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -23−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 19/100directional strength

Maturity 78/100lifecycle context

Confidence 72/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +23.9%EUR 80.12 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	99.27	100.66	-12.30	361	Downward Expansion	-23	19
2026-10-02	92.69	101.01	-20.57	269	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2026-09-25	94.29	101.47	-22.20	528	Downward Expansion	-56	44
2026-09-18	93.49	101.90	-21.66	1385	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2026-09-11	91.44	102.21	-24.76	400	Downward Expansion	-65	86
2026-09-04	92.59	102.92	-23.97	0	Downward Expansion	-66	86
2026-08-28	88.66	103.47	-26.82	0	Downward Expansion	-88	93
2026-08-21	87.90	103.81	-26.12	926	Downward Expansion	-91	88
2026-08-14	99.19	104.21	-18.25	0	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-08-07	96.38	104.30	-19.84	0	Downward Expansion	-68	69
2026-07-31	96.74	104.36	-17.48	0	Downward Expansion	-68	71
2026-07-24	95.54	104.29	-18.83	0	Rotation Down	-79	74
2026-07-17	101.37	104.26	-12.94	0	Rotation Down	-31	43
2026-07-10	99.54	104.11	-16.27	0	Rotation Down	-37	51
2026-07-03	97.58	104.07	-19.15	85	Rotation Down	-48	51
2026-06-26	102.84	104.11	-13.02	0	Rotation Down	-19	38
2026-06-19	102.30	103.82	-15.31	0	Balance	-21	36
2026-06-12	103.42	103.44	-11.02	0	Balance	-15	28
2026-06-05	104.08	102.88	-8.08	0	Balance	9	19
2026-05-29	98.26	102.34	-14.31	93	Upward Expansion	3	9
2026-05-22	103.72	101.96	-7.35	279	Upward Expansion	43	31
2026-05-15	113.40	101.52	3.23	196	Upward Expansion	70	66
2026-05-08	111.32	100.78	0.89	0	Upward Expansion	64	51
2026-05-01	111.41	100.00	2.44	83	Upward Expansion	66	43
2026-04-24	110.87	99.17	2.50	103	Upward Expansion	66	41
2026-04-17	105.58	98.39	-5.83	1	Upward Expansion	45	31
2026-04-10	107.96	97.77	-1.62	145	Upward Expansion	58	36
2026-04-03	108.08	97.09	4.61	223	Upward Expansion	62	41
2026-03-27	106.86	96.31	7.01	1	Upward Expansion	58	40
2026-03-20	103.13	95.47	4.97	222	Upward Expansion	49	41
2026-03-13	109.80	94.80	10.47	120	Upward Expansion	72	56
2026-03-06	106.37	93.97	4.56	397	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-02-27	107.21	93.37	-0.11	130	Upward Expansion	68	74
2026-02-20	102.67	92.62	-6.41	1556	Upward Expansion	65	73
2026-02-13	112.68	91.93	5.61	525	Upward Expansion	91	92
2026-02-06	109.36	90.87	1.32	211	Upward Expansion	91	87
2026-01-30	98.77	89.91	-8.03	42	Upward Expansion	63	62
2026-01-23	99.72	89.35	-6.32	235	Upward Expansion	68	59
2026-01-16	101.99	88.77	-3.81	847	Upward Expansion	84	63
2026-01-09	98.14	88.11	-6.72	1155	Upward Expansion	73	54
2026-01-02	94.83	87.55	-9.56	31	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-12-26	94.54	87.21	-8.60	0	Upward Expansion	67	82
2025-12-19	97.00	86.91	-6.51	166	Upward Expansion	68	87
2025-12-12	98.10	86.47	-3.59	115	Upward Expansion	81	90
2025-12-05	98.74	86.12	-3.03	713	Upward Expansion	87	84
2025-11-28	94.29	85.66	-6.56	722	Deceleration	78	50
2025-11-21	90.97	85.37	-6.19	2208	Deceleration	66	33
2025-11-14	86.45	85.10	-12.46	493	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-11-07	88.02	84.91	-9.38	10	Upward Expansion	57	42
2025-10-31	86.71	84.63	-12.02	230	Upward Expansion	59	49
2025-10-24	90.63	84.32	-5.52	6	Upward Expansion	72	68
2025-10-17	91.35	83.88	-3.08	868	Upward Expansion	81	71
2025-10-10	87.88	83.45	-8.56	230	Upward Expansion	66	64
2025-10-03	86.44	83.09	-11.85	287	Upward Expansion	58	64
2025-09-26	87.44	82.99	-9.02	0	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-09-19	86.88	83.14	-9.14	39	Balance	59	45
2025-09-12	87.76	83.24	-8.65	0	Balance	65	30
2025-09-05	84.47	83.58	-11.18	0	Balance	18	9
2025-08-29	81.78	84.00	-14.36	34	Balance	-14	15
2025-08-22	83.12	84.38	-16.13	1465	Balance	19	25
2025-08-15	84.72	84.57	-15.61	0	Balance	22	28
2025-08-08	88.34	84.68	-9.71	0	Balance	12	18
2025-08-01	84.71	84.71	-8.17	100	Downward Expansion	-24	15
2025-07-25	82.11	84.79	-13.14	0	Downward Expansion	-54	44
2025-07-18	80.91	84.93	-12.63	14	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-07-11	80.38	85.18	-13.11	9	Balance	-62	52
2025-07-04	82.04	85.46	-9.23	0	Balance	-41	37
2025-06-27	82.24	85.70	-9.56	432	Balance	-38	30
2025-06-20	82.45	85.82	-7.44	143	Balance	-35	21
2025-06-13	81.18	85.92	-9.15	512	Balance	-39	19
2025-06-06	84.76	85.84	-7.04	128	Balance	-8	12
2025-05-30	85.44	85.62	-5.58	67	Balance	-7	14
2025-05-23	83.73	85.25	-6.25	1514	Balance	-18	21
2025-05-16	87.53	84.97	-2.89	1879	Balance	17	21
2025-05-09	85.02	84.51	-2.49	640	Balance	-0	13
2025-05-02	85.76	84.07	3.38	321	Deceleration	-4	9
2025-04-25	82.73	83.62	1.73	1105	Deceleration	-18	22
2025-04-18	80.75	83.21	3.47	564	Rotation Down	-33	36
2025-04-11	79.62	82.84	8.06	4593	Rotation Down	-28	57
2025-04-04	77.41	82.56	4.35	1254	Rotation Down	-33	65
2025-03-28	77.57	82.23	-5.27	395	Rotation Down	-39	52
2025-03-21	78.32	81.91	-5.96	63	Rotation Down	-38	47
2025-03-14	76.93	81.50	-8.21	1241	Rotation Down	-19	31
2025-03-07	83.56	81.12	0.05	926	Upward Expansion	28	25
2025-02-28	92.11	80.36	14.50	445	Upward Expansion	65	62
2025-02-21	89.86	79.32	15.21	2038	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-02-14	97.76	78.43	25.08	335	Upward Expansion	87	89
2025-02-07	97.17	77.30	32.05	382	Upward Expansion	90	75
2025-01-31	93.27	76.15	28.53	136	Upward Expansion	84	71
2025-01-24	88.78	75.12	24.15	115	Upward Expansion	68	64
2025-01-17	87.91	74.22	26.22	0	Upward Expansion	63	62
2025-01-10	89.17	73.37	33.78	52	Upward Expansion	75	69
2025-01-03	87.24	72.44	32.36	0	Upward Expansion	67	67
2024-12-27	86.26	71.54	33.08	0	Upward Expansion	68	68
2024-12-20	88.58	70.60	39.77	560	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-12-13	88.80	69.61	39.57	0	Upward Expansion	83	94
2024-12-06	89.15	68.58	44.37	173	Upward Expansion	93	97
2024-11-29	85.86	67.44	42.58	774	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-11-22	85.53	66.37	44.00	1146	Upward Expansion	97	97
2024-11-15	78.68	65.35	33.14	490	Upward Expansion	86	92
2024-11-08	78.11	64.53	33.62	118	Upward Expansion	89	81
2024-11-01	74.43	63.78	29.06	66	Upward Expansion	73	69
2024-10-25	75.26	63.11	29.36	15	Upward Expansion	85	73
2024-10-18	73.74	62.42	25.90	0	Upward Expansion	83	72
2024-10-11	71.68	61.80	23.44	0	Upward Expansion	73	68
2024-10-04	72.38	61.23	25.48	0	Upward Expansion	84	73
2024-09-27	70.36	60.60	21.42	6	Upward Expansion	75	84
2024-09-20	69.63	60.00	21.79	6	Upward Expansion	74	89
2024-09-13	71.21	59.44	25.55	0	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-09-06	67.68	58.78	20.63	225	Upward Expansion	79	91
2024-08-30	67.92	58.22	16.71	1	Upward Expansion	87	81
2024-08-23	65.94	57.64	14.96	30	Upward Expansion	82	64
2024-08-16	65.60	57.07	16.73	331	Upward Expansion	84	60
2024-08-09	60.87	56.49	10.74	813	Upward Expansion	51	47
2024-08-02	60.84	56.05	12.04	0	Upward Expansion	65	62
2024-07-26	62.95	55.56	11.74	7	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-07-19	63.99	55.01	13.96	303	Upward Expansion	84	73
2024-07-12	62.81	54.41	11.26	158	Upward Expansion	77	71
2024-07-05	62.19	53.82	10.51	0	Upward Expansion	74	84
2024-06-28	61.74	53.26	13.03	358	Upward Expansion	74	88
2024-06-21	62.60	52.73	15.55	10	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-06-14	61.24	52.17	15.22	0	Upward Expansion	88	95
2024-06-07	60.02	51.68	9.48	0	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-05-31	58.14	51.34	5.46	35	Upward Expansion	76	86
2024-05-24	59.02	51.06	5.60	322	Upward Expansion	89	77
2024-05-17	57.93	50.73	3.76	179	Upward Expansion	88	65
2024-05-10	54.89	50.42	0.19	0	Upward Expansion	56	49
2024-05-03	53.76	50.23	0.82	284	Upward Expansion	52	53
2024-04-26	54.89	50.00	4.34	0	Upward Expansion	67	62
2024-04-19	54.20	49.81	3.63	0	Upward Expansion	65	64
2024-04-12	55.60	49.65	6.02	0	Upward Expansion	80	71
2024-04-05	54.06	49.46	3.06	155	Upward Expansion	68	69
2024-03-29	54.65	49.30	5.27	0	Upward Expansion	73	85
2024-03-22	55.22	49.08	7.76	89	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-03-15	54.49	48.81	9.38	138	Upward Expansion	89	94
2024-03-08	53.45	48.55	8.68	228	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-03-01	52.36	48.35	7.01	318	Upward Expansion	77	92
2024-02-23	52.79	48.15	8.19	1512	Upward Expansion	92	97
2024-02-16	51.54	47.95	5.40	426	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-02-09	50.97	47.76	6.11	432	Rotation Up	76	82
2024-02-02	50.58	47.53	3.19	0	Rotation Up	58	60
2024-01-26	48.70	47.37	-0.77	237	Balance	29	32
2024-01-19	48.30	47.28	1.93	213	Balance	18	20
2024-01-12	47.48	47.20	-1.14	15	Rotation Down	-6	10
2024-01-05	46.32	47.15	-4.30	213	Rotation Down	-29	29
2023-12-29	46.26	47.13	-4.57	195	Rotation Down	-33	41
2023-12-22	46.15	47.07	-4.03	390	Rotation Down	-28	59
2023-12-15	45.10	47.00	-5.24	600	Rotation Down	-35	66
2023-12-08	45.47	46.98	-3.12	390	Rotation Down	-33	45
2023-12-01	45.58	46.98	-2.79	780	Upward Expansion	-33	37
2023-11-24	45.97	46.94	-0.13	282	Upward Expansion	-7	13
2023-11-17	46.41	46.87	0.16	1542	Upward Expansion	20	18
2023-11-10	49.87	46.79	10.00	573	Upward Expansion	68	56
2023-11-03	49.80	46.57	10.75	195	Deceleration	71	50
2023-10-27	49.14	46.38	15.47	0	Deceleration	52	33
2023-10-20	48.63	46.19	13.88	195	Upward Expansion	46	34

Price vs TrendBelow-1.4%

Trend directionFalling-3.5%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+23.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.0%

Price momentumNegative-8.0%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.43×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-23 / ±100

+42.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

19 /100

-66.9 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

WMT Directional State ↗ WMT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance45

Rotation Up33

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration44

Rotation Down20

Downward Expansion56

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 1%Upward Expansion 61%Deceleration 4%Rotation Down 11%Downward Expansion 9%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-07-31	2026-10-09	Developing	+2.6%
Rotation Down	2026-06-26	2026-07-24	Developing	-7.1%
Balance	2026-06-05	2026-06-19	New	-1.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-05	2026-05-29	Established	-0.5%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2025-11-28	New	+3.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-09-26	2025-11-14	Developing	-1.1%
Balance	2025-08-08	2025-09-19	Developing	-1.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+4.7%
Balance	2025-05-09	2025-07-11	Developing	-5.5%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-02	New	+3.7%
Rotation Down	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	+5.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-02-16	2025-03-07	Extended	+62.1%
Rotation Up	2024-02-02	2024-02-09	New	+0.8%
Balance	2024-01-19	2024-01-26	New	+0.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing41

Stage 2 · Advancing18

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining82

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^ATX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 75/100
Current Relative Strength: -12.30
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -8.0%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -20.6%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 23th percentile13 in cohort

Test WMT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.78×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.43×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore WMT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 95.23rising

Slow Activity EUR 97.53falling

Trend Reference EUR 100.66-1.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 80.12+23.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 87.77shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.1%

Annualized volatility +30.9%

From structural high -14.3%

From structural low +17.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^ATX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	5	+4.7%-8.4% to +6.8%	+80.0%	+20.0%	-3.3%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	3	+10.9%+6.1% to +12.9%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+10.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	3	+19.5%+5.4% to +26.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+4.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+17.3%+9.4% to +25.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-8.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

WMT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map