Weekly structural research ยท NSI ยท Industrials

FLAIR Stage Analysis

FLAIR WRITING INDUST LTD

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close INR 237.58Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^NSEI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and stable.
Direction -70โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 67/100directional strength
Maturity 45/100lifecycle context
Confidence 93/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Widestable separation
Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -18.3%INR 290.63 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • BalanceDirection is contained.
  • Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 148 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-25237.58279.88-13.29463276Downward Expansion-7067
2026-09-18235.23282.23-15.14254855Downward Expansion-8082
2026-09-11236.08284.89-15.37991314Downward Expansion-8692
2026-09-04243.71287.79-14.84300144Downward Expansion-7786
2026-08-28249.30289.80-14.27165358Downward Expansion-7185
2026-08-21248.80291.49-15.0397230Downward Expansion-7383
2026-08-14253.40293.25-14.1851300Downward Expansion-6667
2026-08-07251.90295.18-15.66110987Downward Expansion-7070
2026-07-31258.59297.35-13.1440723Downward Expansion-6570
2026-07-24252.00299.19-13.5978394Downward Expansion-7480
2026-07-17259.43300.82-13.4177345Downward Expansion-7079
2026-07-10260.15302.10-13.00156556Downward Expansion-7177
2026-07-03260.10303.39-13.40302103Downward Expansion-7579
2026-06-26265.20304.28-10.890Downward Expansion-7476
2026-06-19279.40305.30-5.7879412Balance-6268
2026-06-12270.45305.99-7.04398393Balance-4246
2026-06-05285.45307.52-0.6367491Balance-2324
2026-05-29288.60308.44-0.03937969Balance-77
2026-05-22295.05309.171.631554210Upward Expansion3217
2026-05-15334.00309.3715.66525595Upward Expansion5954
2026-05-08337.55308.7514.83649590Balance6358
2026-05-01318.75307.979.69273540Balance4837
2026-04-24322.10307.8011.82461667Balance5035
2026-04-17334.00306.9214.35503469Balance5632
2026-04-10316.45306.4610.22274416Balance-2216
2026-04-03296.00306.679.69166161Balance-4935
2026-03-27285.60307.505.83796095Balance-5632
2026-03-20307.40308.2813.00491939Balance24
2026-03-13298.85308.4210.26419564Balance-167
2026-03-06315.20308.5910.81333550Balance1922
2026-02-27308.15308.675.74383683Balance414
2026-02-20315.10309.736.93575980Balance913
2026-02-13323.05309.8210.521068973Balance-12
2026-02-06303.90309.663.62348731Balance-2914
2026-01-30299.97309.484.04279628Balance-2211
2026-01-23301.81308.445.97458117Balance-711
2026-01-16311.20306.836.78396856Balance914
2026-01-09316.99304.748.99533380Balance1313
2026-01-02313.74302.655.45606884Balance55
2025-12-26301.06300.912.30797628Balance-2224
2025-12-19297.82300.121.30648481Balance-2231
2025-12-12298.77299.381.08710550Balance-1226
2025-12-05286.89298.79-3.70500415Deceleration-2227
2025-11-28295.72298.35-0.95496506Deceleration56
2025-11-21300.07296.930.97680228Deceleration138
2025-11-14316.49295.227.261048784Deceleration3818
2025-11-07312.84293.297.983077544Deceleration2614
2025-10-31310.55290.596.38207953Deceleration2414
2025-10-24300.96288.042.89322347Deceleration3417
2025-10-17315.39285.488.22364327Deceleration4119
2025-10-10314.24282.849.71233180Deceleration4121
2025-10-03313.54279.1411.30233049Deceleration4123
2025-09-26295.77276.046.16340880Deceleration4126
2025-09-19320.18273.2811.92498706Deceleration5537
2025-09-12322.83270.0813.91869590Deceleration5036
2025-09-05320.78266.5914.891556103Deceleration4934
2025-08-29309.10264.0112.31224275Upward Expansion5539
2025-08-22311.55262.3511.28483204Upward Expansion6050
2025-08-15303.96260.139.65399188Upward Expansion6361
2025-08-08317.79258.6316.02524689Upward Expansion6784
2025-08-01339.78256.6923.092617639Upward Expansion8592
2025-07-25317.74254.9214.011215764Upward Expansion7987
2025-07-18318.24254.3813.691762763Upward Expansion8480
2025-07-11298.63253.835.932519343Deceleration7347
2025-07-04268.72254.57-5.991742283Deceleration1214
2025-06-27253.44255.38-12.39325016Deceleration214
2025-06-20248.72256.28-12.61408555Rotation Up59
2025-06-13254.24256.67-9.64184696Rotation Up1818
2025-06-06261.46256.86-8.46238912Rotation Up2437
2025-05-30277.29โ€”โ€”400577Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-23275.83โ€”โ€”578624Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-16281.04โ€”โ€”321597Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-09273.46โ€”โ€”693961Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-02253.25โ€”โ€”174723Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-25248.71โ€”โ€”562076Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-18258.67โ€”โ€”303652Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-11231.76โ€”โ€”347044Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-04234.26โ€”โ€”426953Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-28224.02โ€”โ€”670098Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-21236.28โ€”โ€”937796Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-14203.22โ€”โ€”444186Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-07220.33โ€”โ€”1034243Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-28213.09โ€”โ€”508282Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-21224.08โ€”โ€”661631Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-14218.26โ€”โ€”471365Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-07243.49โ€”โ€”580931Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-31259.27โ€”โ€”1176326Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-24244.99โ€”โ€”208698Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-17258.72โ€”โ€”292921Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-10259.81โ€”โ€”1174165Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-03286.54โ€”โ€”394382Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-27301.52โ€”โ€”350171Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-20301.81โ€”โ€”582830Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-13320.87โ€”โ€”2169669Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-06293.01โ€”โ€”387068Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-29280.32โ€”โ€”583019Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-22260.51โ€”โ€”727254Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-15259.86โ€”โ€”401524Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-08275.39โ€”โ€”224908Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-01281.56โ€”โ€”1065727Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-25276.49โ€”โ€”907824Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-18295.25โ€”โ€”192026Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-11296.24โ€”โ€”391141Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-04294.15โ€”โ€”313568Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-27306.94โ€”โ€”635340Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-20311.17โ€”โ€”740914Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-13327.04โ€”โ€”1563937Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-06298.33โ€”โ€”404175Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-30306.24โ€”โ€”382952Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-23307.74โ€”โ€”509345Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-16288.38โ€”โ€”331762Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-09311.02โ€”โ€”335537Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-02320.63โ€”โ€”738219Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-26304.50โ€”โ€”434357Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-19310.82โ€”โ€”444100Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-12312.66โ€”โ€”629226Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-07-05329.63โ€”โ€”1934545Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-28298.78โ€”โ€”696290Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-21293.26โ€”โ€”653235Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-14291.61โ€”โ€”427887Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-06-07287.58โ€”โ€”652746Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-31284.10โ€”โ€”725118Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-24294.40โ€”โ€”259055Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-17292.26โ€”โ€”352636Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-10282.16โ€”โ€”521577Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-05-03302.31โ€”โ€”404431Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-26302.86โ€”โ€”541459Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-19310.32โ€”โ€”1050216Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-12288.88โ€”โ€”567395Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-04-05292.86โ€”โ€”1217470Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-29249.66โ€”โ€”1042012Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-22259.47โ€”โ€”556875Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-15258.57โ€”โ€”1172528Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-08271.96โ€”โ€”765764Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-03-01278.48โ€”โ€”1318345Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-23280.17โ€”โ€”1202594Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-16276.49โ€”โ€”2673700Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-09321.27โ€”โ€”750797Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-02-02322.37โ€”โ€”792653Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-26320.72โ€”โ€”659413Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-19329.63โ€”โ€”874989Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-12349.99โ€”โ€”2070091Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-01-05359.79โ€”โ€”2548043Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-29347.00โ€”โ€”1621139Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-22359.14โ€”โ€”3380887Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-15371.23โ€”โ€”6238716Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-08371.18โ€”โ€”14784035Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2023-12-01448.77โ€”โ€”12732683Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-15.1%
Trend directionFalling-7.0%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-18.3%
Fair Value directionMoving away-8.3%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-13.3%
Relative strength directionWeakening-2.4%
Price momentumNegative-16.8%
Volume balanceSupply-led0.40ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ยฑ100

+0.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

67 /100

-17.8 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance1
Rotation Up23
Upward Expansion12
Deceleration50
Rotation Down68
Downward Expansion90

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2023-12-01 to 2026-09-25 ยท 69 classified observations out of 148 shown.

Balance 38%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 13%Deceleration 25%Downward Expansion 20%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-06-262026-09-25Established-10.4%
Balance2026-05-292026-06-19New-3.2%
Upward Expansion2026-05-152026-05-22New-11.7%
Balance2025-12-122026-05-08Established+13.0%
Deceleration2025-09-052025-12-05Established-10.6%
Upward Expansion2025-07-182025-08-29Developing-2.9%
Deceleration2025-06-272025-07-11New+17.8%
Rotation Up2025-06-062025-06-20New-4.9%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing49
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution23
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^NSEI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
96/100
Current Relative Strength
-13.29
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-16.8%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-18.2%
Industrials regime cohort
88th percentile136 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume1.39ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity INR 238.25falling
Slow Activity INR 264.57falling
Trend Reference INR 279.88-15.1% close margin
Current Fair Value INR 290.63-18.3% close margin
Structural low INR 228.00shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.3%
Annualized volatility +28.1%
From structural high -31.1%
From structural low +4.2%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^NSEI Regime survived Read
Near term3-5.0%-5.5% to -1.3%+0.0%+100.0%-3.3%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1-10.4%-10.4% to -10.4%+0.0%+100.0%-6.6%+100.0%Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context