Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Healthcare

MRVI Stage Analysis

Maravai Lifesciences Holdings Inc

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 7.44Tenure EstablishedBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 53−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 37/100directional strength

Maturity 85/100lifecycle context

Confidence 60/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +41.0%USD 5.28 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	7.44	5.56	42.84	16417110	Upward Expansion	53	37
2026-10-02	7.90	5.42	53.92	13558420	Upward Expansion	66	41
2026-09-25	7.60	5.27	51.39	9744656	Upward Expansion	63	39
2026-09-18	6.97	5.14	45.69	13984220	Upward Expansion	54	39
2026-09-11	6.53	5.01	39.84	11069297	Upward Expansion	59	51
2026-09-04	7.32	4.89	57.98	16145544	Upward Expansion	60	54
2026-08-28	7.68	4.75	69.28	26940844	Upward Expansion	71	57
2026-08-21	8.64	4.61	95.06	41544356	Upward Expansion	88	63
2026-08-14	5.70	4.44	28.57	10191767	Upward Expansion	50	46
2026-08-07	6.23	4.38	43.57	10406091	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-07-31	6.57	4.31	61.59	8878358	Upward Expansion	67	68
2026-07-24	6.76	4.20	70.24	11618804	Upward Expansion	74	83
2026-07-17	7.24	4.08	82.51	22478144	Upward Expansion	92	94
2026-07-10	6.09	3.96	50.20	13214867	Upward Expansion	76	86
2026-07-03	6.04	3.87	53.49	10653968	Upward Expansion	81	88
2026-06-26	6.22	3.80	61.48	18798939	Upward Expansion	92	93
2026-06-19	5.20	3.71	30.90	15572562	Upward Expansion	77	86
2026-06-12	4.98	3.66	30.16	13413964	Upward Expansion	75	84
2026-06-05	5.02	3.62	35.64	16263930	Upward Expansion	80	83
2026-05-29	4.80	3.54	25.04	11577463	Upward Expansion	80	84
2026-05-22	4.40	3.49	18.88	12791466	Upward Expansion	71	77
2026-05-15	4.15	3.46	14.24	12506588	Upward Expansion	65	72
2026-05-08	4.85	3.43	33.99	22047269	Upward Expansion	87	73
2026-05-01	3.73	3.37	9.85	5536160	Balance	24	24
2026-04-24	3.55	3.35	6.69	10481878	Balance	-17	11
2026-04-17	3.39	3.33	4.53	12088408	Rotation Down	-44	29
2026-04-10	3.07	3.30	0.99	8028109	Rotation Down	-55	54
2026-04-03	2.95	3.29	1.76	7025710	Rotation Down	-29	47
2026-03-27	2.86	3.28	2.75	9522172	Balance	-35	32
2026-03-20	2.98	3.26	3.62	12147409	Balance	-20	12
2026-03-13	3.08	3.24	5.15	9149153	Balance	0	3
2026-03-06	3.55	3.23	20.00	5919761	Balance	18	13
2026-02-27	3.56	3.18	18.79	7446828	Balance	13	20
2026-02-20	3.10	3.14	2.98	3426215	Balance	-2	24
2026-02-13	2.96	3.12	-1.60	5154393	Balance	-7	18
2026-02-06	3.14	3.11	1.91	5813145	Upward Expansion	21	12
2026-01-30	3.36	3.09	5.44	4669802	Upward Expansion	51	35
2026-01-23	3.71	3.07	14.51	4173363	Upward Expansion	54	46
2026-01-16	3.92	3.03	19.20	6801525	Deceleration	64	41
2026-01-09	3.93	2.97	17.25	6312680	Deceleration	67	35
2026-01-02	3.40	2.91	2.45	4214507	Upward Expansion	38	22
2025-12-26	3.27	2.87	-5.01	4469061	Upward Expansion	43	29
2025-12-19	3.43	2.84	-0.97	6093135	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-12-12	3.60	2.80	2.81	8206197	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-12-05	3.70	2.75	1.98	5592274	Upward Expansion	67	70
2025-11-28	3.62	2.69	-0.45	3699405	Upward Expansion	67	52
2025-11-21	3.75	2.64	6.37	9770279	Upward Expansion	76	53
2025-11-14	3.64	2.58	-1.22	7004268	Upward Expansion	78	52
2025-11-07	2.87	2.52	-22.95	9072115	Upward Expansion	58	43
2025-10-31	3.14	2.49	-19.62	7966801	Upward Expansion	64	69
2025-10-24	3.41	2.45	-13.79	5030724	Upward Expansion	75	79
2025-10-17	3.30	2.41	-16.92	7527193	Upward Expansion	75	76
2025-10-10	3.19	2.38	-20.40	13244838	Upward Expansion	74	71
2025-10-03	3.09	2.35	-26.90	7054405	Upward Expansion	72	66
2025-09-26	2.82	2.35	-34.49	5369582	Balance	61	53
2025-09-19	2.70	2.36	-39.59	8603693	Balance	56	41
2025-09-12	2.67	2.41	-40.97	6147415	Balance	26	24
2025-09-05	2.51	2.46	-45.28	3434664	Balance	17	12
2025-08-29	2.42	2.53	-48.69	3991507	Balance	-16	9
2025-08-22	2.45	2.61	-49.93	4795191	Balance	-18	13
2025-08-15	2.61	2.72	-48.81	10186845	Downward Expansion	-15	10
2025-08-08	2.20	2.79	-58.10	10208433	Downward Expansion	-35	20
2025-08-01	2.22	2.88	-57.51	6047998	Downward Expansion	-17	13
2025-07-25	2.69	2.99	-51.33	6978523	Downward Expansion	3	21
2025-07-18	2.43	3.09	-56.92	7989027	Downward Expansion	-9	21
2025-07-11	2.73	3.18	-52.26	10317467	Downward Expansion	-1	15
2025-07-04	2.67	3.28	-54.60	6017776	Downward Expansion	-20	20
2025-06-27	2.47	3.36	-58.09	14335797	Downward Expansion	-33	30
2025-06-20	2.06	3.47	-64.27	6547495	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2025-06-13	2.13	3.57	-63.78	8054901	Downward Expansion	-46	42
2025-06-06	2.39	3.65	-60.39	6326109	Downward Expansion	-44	42
2025-05-30	2.25	3.74	-62.82	6664297	Downward Expansion	-47	50
2025-05-23	2.22	3.91	-63.51	9385298	Downward Expansion	-49	52
2025-05-16	2.10	4.07	-67.32	13241841	Downward Expansion	-52	56
2025-05-09	1.98	4.28	-68.12	7502597	Downward Expansion	-64	63
2025-05-02	2.07	4.48	-67.70	6482718	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2025-04-25	2.04	4.68	-67.77	10341377	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2025-04-18	1.77	4.89	-70.88	7400610	Downward Expansion	-75	84
2025-04-11	1.83	5.11	-71.14	14485292	Downward Expansion	-77	87
2025-04-04	1.94	5.33	-67.78	17076235	Downward Expansion	-79	88
2025-03-28	2.36	5.57	-65.31	15233272	Downward Expansion	-73	88
2025-03-21	2.26	5.79	-68.10	27549470	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2025-03-14	2.45	6.01	-66.07	12617336	Downward Expansion	-86	93
2025-03-07	2.96	6.25	-60.66	24248716	Downward Expansion	-83	89
2025-02-28	3.22	6.44	-59.18	36867749	Downward Expansion	-83	85
2025-02-21	4.11	6.64	-50.33	14700624	Downward Expansion	-73	74
2025-02-14	4.20	6.81	-51.07	13252937	Downward Expansion	-73	62
2025-02-07	4.58	6.96	-45.39	6909809	Downward Expansion	-66	49
2025-01-31	4.93	7.10	-41.42	11002853	Downward Expansion	-58	39
2025-01-24	5.62	7.17	-34.37	7689078	Downward Expansion	-54	36
2025-01-17	4.77	7.22	-43.77	10282874	Downward Expansion	-62	42
2025-01-10	4.85	7.31	-41.59	11285428	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2025-01-03	5.68	7.40	-33.60	4330951	Downward Expansion	-45	34
2024-12-27	5.50	7.49	-36.61	4864708	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2024-12-20	5.37	7.60	-37.94	9254167	Downward Expansion	-61	48
2024-12-13	5.67	7.78	-36.38	7757601	Downward Expansion	-62	52
2024-12-06	5.05	7.97	-43.21	7572460	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2024-11-29	5.67	8.15	-34.41	7832291	Downward Expansion	-67	81
2024-11-22	5.22	8.26	-39.33	9337751	Downward Expansion	-70	84
2024-11-15	4.42	8.34	-47.88	17020260	Downward Expansion	-88	88
2024-11-08	5.08	8.44	-42.47	18490195	Downward Expansion	-86	76
2024-11-01	7.46	8.55	-11.18	6462424	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2024-10-25	7.02	8.57	-18.08	7813178	Downward Expansion	-70	56
2024-10-18	8.35	8.62	-2.82	5657482	Deceleration	-51	38
2024-10-11	8.01	8.64	-6.85	5369483	Deceleration	-55	41
2024-10-04	7.89	8.62	-7.63	5407874	Deceleration	-29	22
2024-09-27	8.42	8.62	-2.27	5798673	Deceleration	-9	10
2024-09-20	8.44	8.59	-2.18	9945526	Deceleration	21	11
2024-09-13	8.39	8.59	-2.30	8316758	Deceleration	23	10
2024-09-06	9.05	8.48	10.38	8342570	Deceleration	46	26
2024-08-30	9.05	8.37	3.01	6595287	Deceleration	48	27
2024-08-23	8.91	8.24	-0.26	11400453	Deceleration	50	35
2024-08-16	9.68	8.16	8.36	29630691	Deceleration	62	45
2024-08-09	8.54	8.04	-0.00	14198756	Deceleration	39	29
2024-08-02	9.37	7.98	9.07	6358579	Deceleration	48	35
2024-07-26	9.16	7.88	2.30	7420225	Deceleration	41	23
2024-07-19	8.64	7.80	-6.95	8381310	Deceleration	13	11
2024-07-12	8.94	7.73	-8.90	10759902	Deceleration	12	22
2024-07-05	6.99	7.64	-30.04	6255821	Deceleration	-29	39
2024-06-28	7.16	7.58	-27.14	23904231	Deceleration	-24	34
2024-06-21	7.24	7.52	-27.66	8223505	Deceleration	4	24
2024-06-14	7.52	7.45	-26.15	8698164	Upward Expansion	23	17
2024-06-07	8.61	7.37	-14.19	8521174	Upward Expansion	60	47
2024-05-31	8.67	7.25	-12.67	9648750	Upward Expansion	64	77
2024-05-24	10.85	7.19	5.85	7053575	Upward Expansion	75	89
2024-05-17	11.32	7.04	10.61	9216404	Upward Expansion	85	83
2024-05-10	10.46	6.89	3.14	14734432	Upward Expansion	79	50
2024-05-03	8.97	6.80	-11.86	8759488	Upward Expansion	68	37
2024-04-26	7.70	6.81	-25.06	7822355	Upward Expansion	41	24
2024-04-19	7.30	6.88	-27.63	8045348	Upward Expansion	55	35
2024-04-12	8.40	6.96	-22.94	8640716	Rotation Up	64	58
2024-04-05	7.95	7.03	-28.83	15813505	Rotation Up	35	54
2024-03-29	8.67	7.13	-24.45	8233828	Rotation Up	46	65
2024-03-22	8.76	7.18	-25.42	16612362	Rotation Up	49	66
2024-03-15	7.70	7.23	-33.67	14704125	Rotation Up	25	38
2024-03-08	7.67	7.31	-36.04	10154719	Rotation Up	23	31
2024-03-01	7.59	7.40	-39.08	15616822	Rotation Up	4	14
2024-02-23	8.36	7.53	-33.31	33544539	Rotation Up	4	10
2024-02-16	5.31	7.64	-57.89	15535929	Downward Expansion	-66	59
2024-02-09	5.52	7.88	-57.89	8534143	Downward Expansion	-64	49
2024-02-02	5.24	8.12	-60.15	10896194	Downward Expansion	-68	43
2024-01-26	6.47	8.35	-51.31	7910333	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2024-01-19	6.25	8.55	-53.64	4353689	Downward Expansion	-36	25
2024-01-12	6.51	8.78	-51.37	9954887	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2024-01-05	6.54	9.02	-50.55	9674902	Downward Expansion	-39	29
2023-12-29	6.55	9.24	-52.91	5713080	Downward Expansion	-46	40
2023-12-22	6.61	9.46	-53.33	8934423	Downward Expansion	-51	51
2023-12-15	6.23	9.68	-56.47	13453667	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2023-12-08	5.12	9.91	-63.79	9572596	Downward Expansion	-70	68
2023-12-01	5.37	10.24	-62.50	12191961	Downward Expansion	-68	78
2023-11-24	5.35	10.54	-63.25	12221387	Downward Expansion	-73	86
2023-11-17	5.02	10.82	-65.85	15549114	Downward Expansion	-84	93
2023-11-10	5.13	11.14	-65.07	24941189	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2023-11-03	6.90	11.44	-52.62	11803983	Downward Expansion	-71	89
2023-10-27	6.22	11.66	-55.39	10132607	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2023-10-20	6.91	11.92	-52.68	15329538	Downward Expansion	-89	92

Price vs TrendAbove+33.8%

Trend directionRising+29.2%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+41.0%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+31.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+42.8%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.4%

Price momentumPositive+142.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.91×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

53 / ±100

-6.0 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

37 /100

-13.4 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MRVI Directional State ↗ MRVI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance30

Rotation Up43

Upward Expansion73

Deceleration72

Rotation Down24

Downward Expansion5

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 2%Downward Expansion 39%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-05-08	2026-10-09	Established	+53.4%
Balance	2026-04-24	2026-05-01	New	+5.1%
Rotation Down	2026-04-03	2026-04-17	New	+14.9%
Balance	2026-02-13	2026-03-27	Developing	-3.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-02-06	New	-15.4%
Deceleration	2026-01-09	2026-01-16	New	-0.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-03	2026-01-02	Established	+10.0%
Balance	2025-08-22	2025-09-26	Developing	+15.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-08-15	Extended	-62.8%
Deceleration	2024-06-21	2024-10-18	Established	+15.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-04-19	2024-06-14	Developing	+3.0%
Rotation Up	2024-02-23	2024-04-12	Developing	+0.5%
Downward Expansion	2023-07-14	2024-02-16	Extended	-58.5%
Balance	2023-03-10	2023-07-07	Established	-16.9%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 83/100
Current Relative Strength: 42.84
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +142.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +119.4%
Healthcare regime cohort: 19th percentile135 in cohort

Test MRVI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.05×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.91×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MRVI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 7.47rising

Slow Activity USD 6.44rising

Trend Reference USD 5.56+33.8% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 5.28+41.0% close margin

Structural low USD 3.03shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +15.7%

Annualized volatility +88.4%

From structural high -21.0%

From structural low +192.3%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	+8.8%-33.6% to +55.1%	+69.2%	+69.2%	+12.2%	+84.6%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	+14.2%-13.2% to +28.5%	+75.0%	+75.0%	+5.9%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+4.9%-4.5% to +14.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+40.0%-75.8% to +155.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+23.8%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MRVI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map