Weekly structural research · EBS · Technology

TEMN Stage Analysis

Temenos AG

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close CHF 66.05Tenure NewBenchmark ^SSMI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Balance · Upper balance after advance

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction -50−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 38/100directional strength

Maturity 25/100lifecycle context

Confidence 62/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +1.0%CHF 65.37 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	66.05	69.58	-7.68	890432	Balance	-50	38
2026-09-25	67.15	69.78	-8.15	851864	Balance	-24	22
2026-09-18	67.40	69.88	-6.89	1346803	Upward Expansion	-16	9
2026-09-11	68.45	69.77	-5.49	761649	Upward Expansion	46	47
2026-09-04	72.75	69.59	-3.93	953159	Upward Expansion	61	69
2026-08-28	75.45	69.32	-0.26	151036	Upward Expansion	61	68
2026-08-21	74.40	69.04	-2.21	197916	Balance	59	50
2026-08-14	74.60	68.98	-1.71	300613	Balance	26	16
2026-08-07	70.85	69.03	-7.87	131273	Downward Expansion	-19	12
2026-07-31	66.95	69.43	-12.11	321321	Downward Expansion	-46	26
2026-07-24	61.80	69.80	-19.17	295765	Downward Expansion	-69	32
2026-07-17	68.35	70.33	-11.20	111520	Downward Expansion	-34	15
2026-07-10	69.30	70.62	-9.37	120925	Downward Expansion	-37	20
2026-07-03	69.60	70.76	-10.23	81981	Downward Expansion	-51	39
2026-06-26	64.80	70.98	-15.01	157241	Downward Expansion	-60	52
2026-06-19	65.20	71.20	-12.16	465893	Downward Expansion	-59	52
2026-06-12	64.30	71.32	-13.06	236467	Balance	-63	50
2026-06-05	70.00	71.59	-3.19	92970	Balance	-38	26
2026-05-29	67.55	71.62	-7.53	1046548	Balance	-42	28
2026-05-22	66.80	71.85	-8.27	924377	Balance	-42	20
2026-05-15	70.05	71.70	-1.75	558289	Balance	-0	8
2026-05-08	72.75	71.38	3.11	608591	Balance	19	22
2026-05-01	72.45	71.08	2.65	1002267	Balance	16	18
2026-04-24	73.04	70.79	3.48	1425983	Balance	36	20
2026-04-17	77.30	70.43	7.66	918192	Balance	48	18
2026-04-10	67.55	69.98	-3.95	847518	Balance	-19	13
2026-04-03	70.44	69.80	1.66	954270	Balance	1	5
2026-03-27	66.13	69.40	-1.41	1051410	Balance	-2	9
2026-03-20	72.06	69.52	9.62	1144648	Balance	33	26
2026-03-13	74.02	69.46	8.31	1120393	Rotation Down	17	13
2026-03-06	71.96	69.35	3.45	1415245	Rotation Down	-13	20
2026-02-27	70.10	69.34	-5.75	1788104	Rotation Down	-23	42
2026-02-20	64.17	69.40	-12.91	1005140	Rotation Down	-31	57
2026-02-13	62.94	69.60	-13.23	1575208	Deceleration	-37	45
2026-02-06	64.71	69.51	-10.08	1533587	Deceleration	-4	25
2026-01-30	67.01	69.37	-5.55	881741	Upward Expansion	16	13
2026-01-23	72.65	69.15	2.41	905976	Upward Expansion	58	41
2026-01-16	76.08	68.74	4.93	951496	Upward Expansion	64	55
2026-01-09	82.89	68.22	14.19	729052	Upward Expansion	85	85
2026-01-02	78.04	67.47	9.01	149319	Upward Expansion	73	76
2025-12-26	77.65	66.88	8.88	223148	Upward Expansion	74	78
2025-12-19	76.96	66.30	8.73	804706	Upward Expansion	77	75
2025-12-12	73.68	65.75	6.57	640896	Upward Expansion	66	62
2025-12-05	75.98	65.31	9.60	779245	Upward Expansion	80	74
2025-11-28	71.42	64.75	4.26	643431	Upward Expansion	60	64
2025-11-21	69.02	64.34	2.67	657060	Upward Expansion	57	64
2025-11-14	72.21	64.01	7.68	811742	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-11-07	71.13	63.57	9.32	897823	Deceleration	63	55
2025-10-31	74.36	63.17	15.28	1787034	Deceleration	57	31
2025-10-24	62.21	62.77	-5.69	638076	Deceleration	-15	18
2025-10-17	60.34	62.93	-9.08	717843	Deceleration	-24	20
2025-10-10	63.78	63.19	-2.73	660549	Deceleration	8	12
2025-10-03	63.92	63.30	-2.66	819596	Deceleration	-13	21
2025-09-26	62.30	63.45	-0.39	673032	Deceleration	-9	29
2025-09-19	63.82	63.74	0.73	1407743	Deceleration	1	24
2025-09-12	62.06	64.01	-2.51	1477197	Rotation Down	13	23
2025-09-05	58.29	64.46	-9.69	2000207	Rotation Down	-13	17
2025-08-29	69.71	65.01	9.65	4503175	Rotation Up	40	58
2025-08-22	70.30	65.18	10.35	1093940	Rotation Up	40	79
2025-08-15	70.93	65.30	13.58	1014231	Rotation Up	47	61
2025-08-08	71.62	65.27	17.21	1160408	Rotation Up	55	64
2025-08-01	71.72	65.05	18.35	1039453	Rotation Up	58	65
2025-07-25	70.20	64.73	15.34	1967454	Rotation Up	34	50
2025-07-18	60.39	64.42	-0.61	0	Downward Expansion	-57	85
2025-07-11	60.39	64.44	-0.30	0	Downward Expansion	-53	84
2025-07-04	60.39	64.55	-0.59	0	Downward Expansion	-51	80
2025-06-27	60.39	64.41	-0.69	0	Downward Expansion	-48	68
2025-06-20	60.39	64.25	0.26	0	Downward Expansion	-47	63
2025-06-13	60.39	64.08	-1.93	0	Downward Expansion	-47	66
2025-06-06	60.39	63.94	-3.61	0	Rotation Down	-48	59
2025-05-30	60.39	63.83	-2.48	0	Rotation Down	-24	43
2025-05-23	60.39	63.74	-2.14	0	Rotation Down	-36	55
2025-05-16	60.39	63.76	-3.10	0	Rotation Down	-38	65
2025-05-09	59.12	63.79	-3.06	0	Rotation Down	-31	72
2025-05-02	59.12	63.83	-4.21	0	Rotation Down	-33	74
2025-04-25	59.12	63.75	-1.66	0	Rotation Down	-37	74
2025-04-18	59.12	63.68	0.78	0	Deceleration	-42	61
2025-04-11	59.12	63.57	4.39	1163162	Deceleration	-41	42
2025-04-04	62.29	63.57	6.20	1063126	Deceleration	-10	23
2025-03-28	67.04	63.35	3.81	931382	Deceleration	29	29
2025-03-21	68.24	63.00	3.79	737240	Deceleration	35	31
2025-03-14	67.08	62.62	3.27	809720	Upward Expansion	41	30
2025-03-07	68.52	62.28	4.13	994690	Upward Expansion	49	43
2025-02-28	70.87	61.78	8.26	851899	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-02-21	71.83	61.22	10.20	1285427	Upward Expansion	68	84
2025-02-14	75.63	60.80	17.13	811300	Upward Expansion	76	91
2025-02-07	74.91	60.39	18.68	896763	Upward Expansion	79	92
2025-01-31	74.81	59.99	17.78	864700	Upward Expansion	87	94
2025-01-24	73.90	59.54	18.61	1780201	Upward Expansion	91	91
2025-01-17	69.96	59.06	14.54	1777905	Upward Expansion	86	79
2025-01-10	65.12	58.68	7.92	944733	Upward Expansion	73	69
2025-01-03	61.90	58.43	3.62	425798	Balance	59	54
2024-12-27	61.04	58.33	2.10	231937	Balance	26	33
2024-12-20	61.09	58.15	3.50	1296303	Balance	24	23
2024-12-13	63.58	57.95	4.41	1588918	Balance	21	10
2024-12-06	56.14	57.64	-8.84	1007644	Balance	-52	41
2024-11-29	55.52	57.51	-10.30	1838970	Balance	-27	24
2024-11-22	55.38	57.42	-10.72	1395949	Balance	-18	19
2024-11-15	56.24	57.38	-9.06	1922103	Balance	8	7
2024-11-08	57.10	57.57	-9.40	1022716	Balance	38	25
2024-11-01	57.73	57.59	-10.06	1054994	Balance	48	42
2024-10-25	60.89	57.60	-7.18	1167805	Balance	57	51
2024-10-18	61.33	57.59	-7.82	498152	Balance	61	40
2024-10-11	60.37	57.59	-8.19	1112443	Balance	16	10
2024-10-04	56.77	57.66	-12.66	776103	Balance	-22	10
2024-09-27	57.01	57.84	-14.25	1042743	Balance	-24	12
2024-09-20	55.76	58.03	-14.27	1605508	Balance	-31	15
2024-09-13	58.97	58.18	-10.39	913666	Balance	-14	9
2024-09-06	55.66	58.11	-14.71	1272555	Downward Expansion	-53	30
2024-08-30	56.72	59.04	-17.08	1203365	Downward Expansion	-51	43
2024-08-23	56.62	59.93	-17.02	1243079	Downward Expansion	-52	43
2024-08-16	57.15	60.79	-15.50	1072996	Downward Expansion	-41	39
2024-08-09	53.50	61.49	-19.08	1597989	Balance	-56	38
2024-08-02	53.89	62.21	-19.01	1830200	Balance	-45	20
2024-07-26	59.31	62.78	-13.97	2611254	Balance	2	32
2024-07-19	63.44	63.25	-7.88	1475225	Balance	14	36
2024-07-12	62.77	63.57	-10.54	1521812	Balance	6	20
2024-07-05	61.42	63.91	-10.16	1132987	Downward Expansion	-5	14
2024-06-28	59.50	64.27	-13.11	1445477	Downward Expansion	-29	23
2024-06-21	58.54	64.60	-14.93	2462964	Downward Expansion	-33	23
2024-06-14	57.49	64.84	-16.93	1708882	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2024-06-07	58.93	65.09	-16.64	1696035	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2024-05-31	55.66	65.22	-20.04	1867653	Downward Expansion	-61	69
2024-05-24	54.99	65.44	-21.01	1523839	Downward Expansion	-63	79
2024-05-17	54.42	65.57	-22.91	1986977	Downward Expansion	-65	81
2024-05-10	52.21	65.70	-24.67	2304204	Downward Expansion	-71	60
2024-05-03	52.83	65.91	-20.92	1783418	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2024-04-26	54.19	66.16	-19.71	3344650	Rotation Down	-75	57
2024-04-19	61.93	66.37	-8.22	2119946	Rotation Down	-33	36
2024-04-12	57.62	66.34	-15.17	834185	Rotation Down	-43	43
2024-04-05	58.13	66.51	-15.34	597713	Rotation Down	-44	42
2024-03-29	60.51	66.65	-13.72	737158	Rotation Down	-30	39
2024-03-22	61.29	66.81	-12.04	835144	Rotation Down	-29	55
2024-03-15	62.68	66.88	-10.16	1107629	Rotation Down	-25	57
2024-03-08	62.16	66.93	-10.62	1100975	Rotation Down	-26	45
2024-03-01	62.66	67.10	-8.91	1518089	Rotation Down	-26	39
2024-02-23	60.32	67.25	-12.47	2781859	Rotation Down	-1	18
2024-02-16	56.88	67.56	-16.23	3795860	Rotation Down	17	23
2024-02-09	83.40	67.94	25.00	1218321	Upward Expansion	77	91
2024-02-02	83.50	67.44	24.17	1245650	Upward Expansion	87	94
2024-01-26	82.41	66.80	21.66	1116841	Upward Expansion	90	80
2024-01-19	78.24	66.28	18.73	1219212	Upward Expansion	84	66
2024-01-12	75.05	65.83	13.85	1231414	Upward Expansion	78	66
2024-01-05	70.85	65.59	8.58	763151	Upward Expansion	66	76
2023-12-29	73.40	65.66	13.61	289065	Rotation Up	73	89
2023-12-22	73.25	65.65	14.06	580076	Rotation Up	52	81
2023-12-15	72.84	65.55	13.90	854830	Rotation Up	47	76
2023-12-08	72.09	65.53	14.76	900479	Rotation Up	49	69
2023-12-01	69.66	65.42	13.58	1268599	Downward Expansion	39	41
2023-11-24	65.67	65.37	7.73	493733	Downward Expansion	-8	22
2023-11-17	65.05	65.48	8.54	971638	Downward Expansion	-21	19
2023-11-10	62.72	65.31	6.88	565414	Downward Expansion	-44	29
2023-11-03	62.40	65.22	6.35	975765	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2023-10-27	58.67	65.14	2.83	1076672	Downward Expansion	-66	68
2023-10-20	58.29	65.14	2.15	1017784	Downward Expansion	-72	75
2023-10-13	58.48	64.97	-2.47	577679	Rotation Down	-76	76

Price vs TrendBelow-5.1%

Trend directionFalling-0.3%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+1.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-6.1%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-7.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.6%

Price momentumNegative-6.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.16×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-50 / ±100

-111.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

38 /100

-31.2 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

TEMN Directional State ↗ TEMN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance42

Rotation Up9

Upward Expansion11

Deceleration63

Rotation Down69

Downward Expansion70

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 25%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 21%Deceleration 10%Rotation Down 16%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	-1.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-09-18	New	-10.7%
Balance	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	-0.3%
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-08-07	Developing	+8.7%
Balance	2026-03-20	2026-06-12	Established	-10.8%
Rotation Down	2026-02-20	2026-03-13	New	+15.4%
Deceleration	2026-02-06	2026-02-13	New	-2.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-11-14	2026-01-30	Developing	-7.2%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-11-07	Developing	+11.4%
Rotation Down	2025-09-05	2025-09-12	New	+6.5%
Rotation Up	2025-07-25	2025-08-29	Developing	-0.7%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-13	2025-07-18	Developing	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-04-25	2025-06-06	Developing	+2.2%
Deceleration	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-13.4%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing62

Stage 2 · Advancing16

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining84

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^SSMI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 91/100
Current Relative Strength: -7.68
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.5%
Technology regime cohort: 67th percentile3 in cohort

Test TEMN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.89×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.16×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 5

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+62.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore TEMN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity CHF 67.38falling

Slow Activity CHF 69.23falling

Trend Reference CHF 69.58-5.1% close margin

Current Fair Value CHF 65.37+1.0% close margin

Structural low CHF 61.60shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Persistent fast/slow separation and fan expansion would end Balance; direction determines whether it becomes Rotation Up or Rotation Down.

Range context +6.3%

Annualized volatility +37.2%

From structural high -22.6%

From structural low +11.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^SSMI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	14	-2.5%-21.2% to +20.9%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-2.1%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-3.8%-18.6% to +7.9%	+40.0%	+40.0%	-2.1%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-5.5%-40.1% to +3.7%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-13.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-10.4%-20.5% to +5.2%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-22.8%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

TEMN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Directional pressure has compressed into balance.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map