Weekly structural research · PAR · Industrials

CEN Stage Analysis

Groupe CRIT SA

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 46.60Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^FCHI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -87−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 93/100directional strength

Maturity 60/100lifecycle context

Confidence 79/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -21.9%EUR 59.64 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	46.60	53.18	-12.89	6256	Downward Expansion	-87	93
2026-10-02	48.20	53.60	-11.27	6947	Downward Expansion	-80	86
2026-09-25	49.30	53.94	-11.60	2762	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2026-09-18	48.80	54.26	-12.74	12947	Downward Expansion	-78	49
2026-09-11	51.60	54.71	-9.39	2284	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2026-09-04	52.60	55.13	-9.09	259	Downward Expansion	-19	15
2026-08-28	54.00	55.53	-8.44	132	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2026-08-21	52.20	55.85	-12.76	498	Downward Expansion	-35	27
2026-08-14	52.40	56.08	-14.38	1058	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2026-08-07	52.40	56.37	-15.57	198	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2026-07-31	53.60	56.65	-12.06	592	Downward Expansion	-52	51
2026-07-24	51.20	56.80	-15.08	381	Downward Expansion	-66	82
2026-07-17	51.20	57.04	-15.21	858	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-07-10	49.90	57.27	-17.82	394	Downward Expansion	-80	92
2026-07-03	50.80	57.54	-18.50	551	Downward Expansion	-76	85
2026-06-26	50.48	57.84	-18.36	631	Downward Expansion	-84	76
2026-06-19	52.03	58.17	-16.75	805	Downward Expansion	-77	64
2026-06-12	53.39	58.47	-14.40	215	Downward Expansion	-69	64
2026-06-05	54.55	58.70	-11.60	505	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-05-29	53.58	58.85	-13.21	18678	Downward Expansion	-68	79
2026-05-22	53.39	59.13	-13.16	2758	Downward Expansion	-73	80
2026-05-15	54.17	59.42	-10.42	844	Downward Expansion	-71	75
2026-05-08	54.75	59.48	-11.46	2158	Downward Expansion	-71	70
2026-05-01	53.97	59.55	-13.02	1287	Downward Expansion	-79	69
2026-04-24	57.80	59.75	-7.65	1633	Downward Expansion	-53	48
2026-04-17	58.60	59.84	-9.55	2760	Balance	-54	47
2026-04-10	56.40	59.85	-11.47	3492	Balance	-41	41
2026-04-03	57.80	59.98	-6.10	4692	Balance	-26	32
2026-03-27	58.40	60.09	-2.11	3333	Balance	-22	24
2026-03-20	61.20	60.22	2.97	2850	Balance	3	19
2026-03-13	59.20	60.28	-3.20	4992	Balance	-5	19
2026-03-06	58.60	60.40	-4.96	3206	Balance	13	12
2026-02-27	58.80	60.55	-11.01	3516	Rotation Up	7	18
2026-02-20	62.20	60.69	-5.05	3163	Rotation Up	34	61
2026-02-13	64.20	60.75	0.57	4376	Rotation Up	44	66
2026-02-06	64.80	60.75	2.26	3216	Balance	50	61
2026-01-30	63.60	60.76	2.51	3662	Balance	33	30
2026-01-23	59.00	60.81	-4.81	1880	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2026-01-16	61.00	61.03	-2.86	2345	Downward Expansion	-20	10
2026-01-09	60.80	61.17	-4.32	2140	Downward Expansion	-42	26
2026-01-02	58.20	61.32	-6.57	1144	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2025-12-26	58.40	61.59	-5.44	1956	Downward Expansion	-57	51
2025-12-19	58.00	61.75	-6.74	6476	Downward Expansion	-60	41
2025-12-12	58.20	61.88	-5.60	1319	Downward Expansion	-61	32
2025-12-05	59.80	61.99	-3.65	2413	Downward Expansion	-36	16
2025-11-28	60.40	62.07	-2.84	5309	Downward Expansion	-30	16
2025-11-21	60.80	62.12	-0.62	7367	Downward Expansion	-30	20
2025-11-14	60.40	62.11	-3.63	1735	Downward Expansion	-31	25
2025-11-07	59.00	62.07	-3.42	1926	Downward Expansion	-47	28
2025-10-31	62.00	61.94	-0.83	2163	Downward Expansion	-39	33
2025-10-24	62.00	61.83	-2.40	9029	Downward Expansion	-56	47
2025-10-17	56.00	61.87	-11.57	3309	Rotation Down	-88	92
2025-10-10	57.00	61.82	-7.44	6968	Rotation Down	-61	78
2025-10-03	59.80	61.69	-5.09	3634	Rotation Down	-41	67
2025-09-26	60.60	61.50	-1.37	6038	Rotation Down	-27	59
2025-09-19	58.80	61.22	-4.15	6862	Deceleration	-48	69
2025-09-12	60.40	61.07	-1.32	1633	Deceleration	-17	40
2025-09-05	61.20	60.86	2.00	6047	Deceleration	-8	19
2025-08-29	62.20	60.56	3.38	3321	Deceleration	7	14
2025-08-22	63.00	60.24	1.36	1720	Deceleration	17	18
2025-08-15	62.80	59.95	1.71	1490	Deceleration	29	22
2025-08-08	63.00	59.70	4.50	3727	Deceleration	34	23
2025-08-01	63.00	59.43	7.29	3420	Deceleration	41	30
2025-07-25	64.00	59.30	4.99	1568	Upward Expansion	47	41
2025-07-18	64.40	59.04	5.83	2902	Upward Expansion	61	58
2025-07-11	65.00	58.76	6.77	3916	Upward Expansion	63	64
2025-07-04	65.00	58.47	8.75	12341	Upward Expansion	66	75
2025-06-27	65.61	58.20	9.97	4811	Upward Expansion	70	83
2025-06-20	65.24	57.94	11.07	5886	Upward Expansion	68	73
2025-06-13	65.43	57.69	10.26	6326	Upward Expansion	74	74
2025-06-06	66.16	57.46	9.87	6606	Upward Expansion	82	75
2025-05-30	63.22	57.26	5.84	3908	Upward Expansion	72	69
2025-05-23	61.94	57.35	3.99	6658	Rotation Up	66	67
2025-05-16	61.57	57.49	1.35	2698	Rotation Up	36	61
2025-05-09	62.12	57.57	4.06	3759	Rotation Up	44	61
2025-05-02	61.94	57.57	3.34	3629	Rotation Up	46	44
2025-04-25	60.46	57.49	3.86	8664	Rotation Up	30	43
2025-04-18	59.36	57.54	5.38	13049	Rotation Up	26	34
2025-04-11	54.95	57.58	-0.02	11319	Rotation Up	-8	26
2025-04-04	58.63	57.61	3.95	10926	Rotation Up	19	30
2025-03-28	63.22	57.51	3.02	17419	Rotation Up	17	23
2025-03-21	54.58	57.32	-12.44	13824	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-03-14	52.93	57.41	-15.17	12974	Downward Expansion	-62	45
2025-03-07	54.22	57.52	-14.37	10730	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2025-02-28	52.19	57.63	-17.69	2941	Downward Expansion	-74	74
2025-02-21	54.22	57.90	-15.32	5001	Downward Expansion	-62	69
2025-02-14	54.22	58.12	-15.86	11944	Downward Expansion	-65	76
2025-02-07	52.19	58.33	-17.33	8214	Downward Expansion	-75	81
2025-01-31	52.75	58.60	-16.67	6360	Downward Expansion	-74	72
2025-01-24	54.22	58.88	-14.57	1639	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2025-01-17	55.14	58.98	-11.08	4641	Downward Expansion	-63	38
2025-01-10	54.95	59.09	-8.48	8352	Downward Expansion	-66	39
2025-01-03	59.18	59.31	0.18	1692	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2024-12-27	56.24	59.46	-6.00	304	Downward Expansion	-63	61
2024-12-20	56.05	59.68	-5.66	5166	Downward Expansion	-66	64
2024-12-13	56.24	60.00	-7.36	7290	Balance	-66	57
2024-12-06	56.79	60.35	-6.91	1674	Balance	-53	42
2024-11-29	57.89	60.71	-2.72	3448	Balance	-37	34
2024-11-22	57.71	61.06	-3.41	1010	Balance	-19	19
2024-11-15	58.63	61.40	-2.27	3558	Rotation Up	-1	11
2024-11-08	60.10	61.68	-0.88	2262	Rotation Up	26	43
2024-11-01	65.98	61.98	7.63	4557	Rotation Up	40	65
2024-10-25	65.98	61.94	6.46	5627	Rotation Up	45	60
2024-10-18	63.96	61.90	1.75	4152	Rotation Up	38	42
2024-10-11	62.30	61.91	-0.40	3718	Downward Expansion	9	27
2024-10-04	59.55	61.97	-4.39	7699	Downward Expansion	-27	24
2024-09-27	61.94	62.07	-3.97	2360	Downward Expansion	-21	16
2024-09-20	60.46	62.17	-2.81	4602	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-09-13	55.87	62.30	-9.91	2909	Downward Expansion	-70	75
2024-09-06	55.50	62.69	-9.37	10666	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2024-08-30	57.52	63.08	-9.79	874	Downward Expansion	-64	73
2024-08-23	57.34	63.42	-9.73	2666	Downward Expansion	-67	69
2024-08-16	56.42	63.74	-9.99	1016	Downward Expansion	-76	56
2024-08-09	57.52	64.09	-6.28	2169	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2024-08-02	60.10	64.43	-2.17	760	Downward Expansion	-49	38
2024-07-26	60.83	64.72	-4.76	681	Downward Expansion	-56	42
2024-07-19	60.65	65.06	-5.54	620	Downward Expansion	-62	57
2024-07-12	60.28	65.31	-8.67	3886	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2024-07-05	61.20	65.50	-7.02	3872	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-06-28	57.01	65.53	-11.42	2174	Downward Expansion	-90	93
2024-06-21	58.64	65.70	-10.87	4044	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2024-06-14	61.53	65.90	-5.18	3269	Balance	-76	72
2024-06-07	63.71	65.92	-8.07	3985	Balance	-33	33
2024-05-31	62.80	65.86	-9.48	3727	Balance	-28	23
2024-05-24	65.70	65.76	-6.70	7459	Upward Expansion	29	16
2024-05-17	66.60	65.46	-6.41	3330	Upward Expansion	53	35
2024-05-10	67.51	65.13	-5.96	858	Upward Expansion	56	54
2024-05-03	68.41	64.84	-1.86	1613	Upward Expansion	63	54
2024-04-26	67.87	64.65	-4.31	4401	Deceleration	49	37
2024-04-19	67.14	64.50	-4.61	1893	Deceleration	41	30
2024-04-12	68.95	64.34	-1.86	7059	Deceleration	52	28
2024-04-05	64.79	64.17	-8.27	7324	Deceleration	5	12
2024-03-29	64.97	64.16	-9.73	2776	Deceleration	1	22
2024-03-22	64.25	64.18	-10.28	3860	Deceleration	-19	28
2024-03-15	64.07	64.25	-10.93	2196	Deceleration	-19	29
2024-03-08	62.62	64.28	-11.61	2345	Deceleration	-9	20
2024-03-01	64.79	64.48	-7.53	2459	Deceleration	24	18
2024-02-23	64.25	64.66	-8.68	2732	Deceleration	26	16
2024-02-16	67.69	64.86	-1.37	2291	Deceleration	42	29
2024-02-09	67.33	64.90	-0.18	1975	Rotation Up	43	29
2024-02-02	67.51	64.96	0.90	2578	Rotation Up	19	23
2024-01-26	67.14	64.97	-0.03	566738	Rotation Up	31	33
2024-01-19	66.96	64.86	3.34	3071	Rotation Up	37	63
2024-01-12	67.51	64.77	3.09	2998	Rotation Up	38	69
2024-01-05	68.77	64.68	5.83	1945	Rotation Up	31	65
2023-12-29	71.13	64.56	8.03	2098	Rotation Up	47	63
2023-12-22	68.23	64.32	3.57	4818	Downward Expansion	35	32
2023-12-15	65.88	64.21	-0.17	3640	Downward Expansion	7	17
2023-12-08	62.08	64.32	-4.93	41116	Downward Expansion	-25	22
2023-12-01	62.26	64.62	-2.21	3561	Downward Expansion	-27	26
2023-11-24	64.43	64.79	2.07	1546	Downward Expansion	-24	23
2023-11-17	62.26	64.80	-0.38	1213	Downward Expansion	-46	34
2023-11-10	61.90	64.80	1.88	2021	Downward Expansion	-62	55
2023-11-03	59.91	64.78	-1.23	2400	Downward Expansion	-66	79
2023-10-27	56.65	64.86	-3.02	1902	Downward Expansion	-82	89
2023-10-20	56.65	65.07	-3.27	91957	Downward Expansion	-88	85

Price vs TrendBelow-12.4%

Trend directionFalling-6.1%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-21.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-12.9%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.9%

Price momentumNegative-17.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.15×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-87 / ±100

-53.3 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

93 /100

+73.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

CEN Directional State ↗ CEN Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance15

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion21

Deceleration37

Rotation Down85

Downward Expansion97

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 10%Rotation Up 15%Upward Expansion 8%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 51%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-10-09	Established	-19.4%
Balance	2026-03-06	2026-04-17	Developing	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2026-02-13	2026-02-27	New	-8.4%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-06	New	+1.9%
Downward Expansion	2025-10-24	2026-01-23	Established	-4.8%
Rotation Down	2025-09-26	2025-10-17	New	-7.6%
Deceleration	2025-08-01	2025-09-19	Developing	-6.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-30	2025-07-25	Developing	+1.2%
Rotation Up	2025-03-28	2025-05-23	Developing	-2.0%
Downward Expansion	2024-12-20	2025-03-21	Established	-2.6%
Balance	2024-11-22	2024-12-13	New	-2.5%
Rotation Up	2024-10-18	2024-11-15	Developing	-8.3%
Downward Expansion	2024-06-21	2024-10-11	Established	+6.2%
Balance	2024-05-31	2024-06-14	New	-2.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing65

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution8

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^FCHI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -12.89
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -17.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.9%
Industrials regime cohort: 95th percentile40 in cohort

Test CEN trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.20×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.15×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore CEN Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 48.19falling

Slow Activity EUR 51.62falling

Trend Reference EUR 53.18-12.4% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 59.64-21.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 46.50shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.6%

Annualized volatility +19.3%

From structural high -31.1%

From structural low +0.2%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^FCHI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	31	-1.0%-9.7% to +17.0%	+48.4%	+51.6%	-0.4%	+77.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	12	-1.0%-11.4% to +19.5%	+41.7%	+50.0%	-0.3%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	+1.2%-6.8% to +18.5%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+0.5%	+33.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	+3.5%+0.1% to +12.9%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+1.2%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

CEN Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map