Weekly structural research · CBOE · Market

BAPR Stage Analysis

Innovator U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - April

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 54.82Tenure ExtendedBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Established expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and contracting.

Direction 76−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 68/100directional strength

Maturity 100/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Moderatecontracting separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +22.1%USD 44.91 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	54.82	52.67	-0.28	62250	Upward Expansion	76	68
2026-09-25	54.80	52.45	-0.52	42149	Upward Expansion	79	70
2026-09-18	54.50	52.24	0.19	24123	Upward Expansion	69	66
2026-09-11	54.46	52.03	0.03	22249	Upward Expansion	69	67
2026-09-04	54.58	51.83	-0.54	25367	Upward Expansion	76	74
2026-08-28	54.45	51.62	-0.70	23234	Upward Expansion	74	85
2026-08-21	54.28	51.42	-0.58	34565	Upward Expansion	74	84
2026-08-14	54.36	51.22	-1.83	27220	Upward Expansion	83	77
2026-08-07	54.29	51.01	-1.88	39269	Upward Expansion	87	78
2026-07-31	53.69	50.81	0.38	27562	Upward Expansion	75	69
2026-07-24	53.20	50.62	0.49	19122	Upward Expansion	65	77
2026-07-17	53.31	50.45	0.08	123832	Upward Expansion	67	77
2026-07-10	53.57	50.27	-1.02	38506	Upward Expansion	76	71
2026-07-03	53.22	50.08	-0.40	43197	Upward Expansion	70	63
2026-06-26	52.66	49.89	0.64	49399	Upward Expansion	62	59
2026-06-19	53.18	49.72	-0.84	19801	Upward Expansion	70	65
2026-06-12	52.88	49.51	-0.60	24991	Upward Expansion	66	65
2026-06-05	52.73	49.32	-0.40	55579	Upward Expansion	68	67
2026-05-29	53.24	49.13	-2.06	50807	Upward Expansion	80	76
2026-05-22	52.83	48.93	-1.53	34284	Upward Expansion	76	80
2026-05-15	52.58	48.75	-1.26	40068	Upward Expansion	76	90
2026-05-08	52.60	48.56	-1.13	29811	Upward Expansion	82	93
2026-05-01	52.15	48.35	0.20	45320	Upward Expansion	81	93
2026-04-24	51.85	48.18	0.46	70339	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-04-17	51.81	48.01	0.79	86287	Upward Expansion	91	93
2026-04-10	50.57	47.85	2.68	340204	Upward Expansion	84	65
2026-04-03	49.36	47.72	3.74	402704	Upward Expansion	71	36
2026-03-27	47.70	47.62	3.59	42655	Upward Expansion	16	15
2026-03-20	48.05	47.58	1.97	35595	Upward Expansion	40	26
2026-03-13	48.25	47.52	0.48	35480	Upward Expansion	47	38
2026-03-06	48.23	47.45	-1.17	75930	Upward Expansion	60	48
2026-02-27	48.50	47.37	-2.72	47142	Upward Expansion	71	59
2026-02-20	48.46	47.27	-3.44	37577	Upward Expansion	74	66
2026-02-13	48.28	47.19	-2.87	43442	Upward Expansion	66	63
2026-02-06	48.36	47.09	-4.10	35808	Upward Expansion	72	67
2026-01-30	48.31	46.99	-4.53	62578	Upward Expansion	72	71
2026-01-23	48.29	46.90	-4.36	25054	Upward Expansion	74	77
2026-01-16	48.25	46.79	-4.91	44775	Upward Expansion	76	84
2026-01-09	48.26	46.66	-5.39	83395	Upward Expansion	82	87
2026-01-02	48.05	46.53	-4.49	143945	Upward Expansion	76	84
2025-12-26	48.05	46.40	-5.62	22164	Upward Expansion	80	89
2025-12-19	47.88	46.27	-4.78	46830	Upward Expansion	78	84
2025-12-12	47.72	46.12	-5.12	83549	Upward Expansion	76	67
2025-12-05	47.69	46.00	-5.86	58093	Upward Expansion	81	67
2025-11-28	47.55	45.83	-5.95	20156	Upward Expansion	80	62
2025-11-21	46.89	45.67	-3.98	16261	Upward Expansion	62	58
2025-11-14	47.13	45.51	-5.45	16058	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-11-07	47.08	45.29	-5.57	25641	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-10-31	47.25	45.09	-6.89	46941	Upward Expansion	80	70
2025-10-24	47.25	44.83	-6.40	13039	Upward Expansion	84	71
2025-10-17	46.86	44.67	-5.54	33235	Upward Expansion	71	67
2025-10-10	46.57	44.53	-4.63	34728	Upward Expansion	68	77
2025-10-03	46.94	44.41	-6.31	82345	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-09-26	46.81	44.30	-5.68	56143	Upward Expansion	74	81
2025-09-19	46.84	44.24	-6.02	22749	Upward Expansion	78	79
2025-09-12	46.71	44.19	-5.27	45425	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-09-05	46.43	44.16	-4.50	26550	Upward Expansion	72	86
2025-08-29	46.33	44.13	-4.52	1069325	Upward Expansion	74	87
2025-08-22	46.30	44.09	-4.74	80668	Upward Expansion	76	86
2025-08-15	46.17	44.07	-4.86	33648	Upward Expansion	76	87
2025-08-08	45.98	44.03	-4.45	61038	Upward Expansion	74	81
2025-08-01	45.46	43.97	-3.31	53053	Upward Expansion	66	80
2025-07-25	45.90	43.94	-4.84	31173	Rotation Up	77	86
2025-07-18	45.50	43.90	-4.36	170392	Rotation Up	44	68
2025-07-11	45.38	43.87	-4.11	68466	Rotation Up	44	64
2025-07-04	45.46	43.86	-4.30	646133	Rotation Up	34	48
2025-06-27	45.09	43.85	-3.56	75779	Rotation Up	31	42
2025-06-20	44.31	43.84	-2.04	34017	Rotation Up	22	32
2025-06-13	44.20	43.85	-2.50	96742	Balance	19	24
2025-06-06	44.40	43.85	-2.48	45339	Balance	22	25
2025-05-30	43.98	43.85	-1.89	33102	Balance	-12	19
2025-05-23	43.44	43.83	-1.45	58844	Downward Expansion	-22	21
2025-05-16	44.11	43.83	-2.53	582507	Downward Expansion	-21	20
2025-05-09	42.63	43.82	-0.90	135488	Downward Expansion	-42	25
2025-05-02	42.75	43.86	-1.10	232261	Downward Expansion	-57	39
2025-04-25	42.03	43.87	0.01	1146494	Downward Expansion	-64	54
2025-04-18	40.67	43.91	1.19	96666	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2025-04-11	41.06	43.99	0.68	3061651	Downward Expansion	-69	79
2025-04-04	39.49	44.04	2.29	773740	Rotation Down	-93	93
2025-03-28	42.23	44.11	-0.52	87981	Rotation Down	-51	68
2025-03-21	42.81	44.12	-0.68	100722	Upward Expansion	-37	43
2025-03-14	42.77	44.11	-0.30	314152	Upward Expansion	-36	33
2025-03-07	43.78	44.09	-0.35	149359	Upward Expansion	13	8
2025-02-28	44.99	44.00	-0.82	113070	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-02-21	45.38	43.86	-0.97	34994	Upward Expansion	62	57
2025-02-14	45.84	43.73	-1.68	74041	Upward Expansion	76	75
2025-02-07	45.33	43.59	-1.43	101167	Upward Expansion	65	57
2025-01-31	45.28	43.49	-1.81	44482	Upward Expansion	63	47
2025-01-24	45.58	43.38	-2.29	46638	Deceleration	73	48
2025-01-17	45.05	43.24	-1.89	76480	Deceleration	54	36
2025-01-10	44.06	43.12	-1.37	56431	Upward Expansion	43	32
2025-01-03	44.68	43.03	-2.06	194322	Upward Expansion	60	50
2024-12-27	44.76	42.90	-2.54	38954	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-12-20	44.52	42.76	-2.58	40156	Upward Expansion	67	82
2024-12-13	45.06	42.62	-3.36	43143	Upward Expansion	74	89
2024-12-06	45.15	42.47	-3.91	42914	Upward Expansion	80	88
2024-11-29	44.93	42.30	-3.73	17449	Upward Expansion	80	85
2024-11-22	44.57	42.12	-3.53	35430	Upward Expansion	77	73
2024-11-15	44.08	41.94	-3.18	170445	Upward Expansion	68	66
2024-11-08	44.52	41.75	-4.42	171249	Upward Expansion	82	74
2024-11-01	43.26	41.58	-2.89	204749	Upward Expansion	63	57
2024-10-25	43.65	41.47	-3.53	430988	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-10-18	43.84	41.35	-4.23	73027	Upward Expansion	74	74
2024-10-11	43.60	41.22	-4.13	78066	Upward Expansion	71	69
2024-10-04	43.26	41.09	-3.96	135153	Upward Expansion	70	65
2024-09-27	43.20	40.98	-4.01	86292	Upward Expansion	71	49
2024-09-20	42.98	40.86	-4.13	175189	Upward Expansion	71	52
2024-09-13	42.62	40.75	-3.75	81969	Upward Expansion	67	57
2024-09-06	41.42	40.64	-2.85	141518	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-08-30	42.67	40.58	-4.18	47368	Deceleration	72	55
2024-08-23	42.58	40.46	-4.26	77672	Deceleration	71	42
2024-08-16	42.14	40.34	-4.06	73850	Deceleration	54	28
2024-08-09	40.94	40.22	-3.20	255155	Upward Expansion	38	22
2024-08-02	40.85	40.14	-3.52	137014	Upward Expansion	48	39
2024-07-26	41.47	40.04	-4.24	92151	Upward Expansion	64	60
2024-07-19	41.66	39.93	-4.71	59436	Upward Expansion	67	79
2024-07-12	42.26	39.81	-5.36	92029	Upward Expansion	83	90
2024-07-05	42.00	39.66	-5.18	453493	Upward Expansion	83	87
2024-06-28	41.49	39.50	-4.68	278428	Upward Expansion	75	75
2024-06-21	41.47	39.36	-4.90	194742	Upward Expansion	80	73
2024-06-14	41.28	39.20	-4.87	106406	Upward Expansion	82	80
2024-06-07	40.81	39.04	-4.54	147298	Upward Expansion	77	80
2024-05-31	40.39	38.88	-4.46	568113	Upward Expansion	67	75
2024-05-24	40.54	38.72	-4.61	220903	Upward Expansion	77	73
2024-05-17	40.48	38.49	-4.89	345909	Deceleration	80	57
2024-05-10	40.02	38.30	-4.56	291472	Deceleration	56	27
2024-05-03	39.47	38.14	-4.26	131275	Deceleration	30	29
2024-04-26	39.28	37.99	-4.28	424288	Deceleration	32	31
2024-04-19	38.50	37.85	-3.84	231224	Upward Expansion	25	25
2024-04-12	39.36	37.74	-4.82	648484	Upward Expansion	55	58
2024-04-05	39.77	37.62	-5.36	1681999	Upward Expansion	68	67
2024-03-29	40.04	37.50	-5.71	414542	Upward Expansion	77	86
2024-03-22	39.94	37.37	-5.74	32424	Upward Expansion	76	82
2024-03-15	39.90	37.23	-3.90	32262	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-03-08	39.78	37.08	-4.36	30883	Upward Expansion	76	79
2024-03-01	39.75	36.95	-4.76	144839	Upward Expansion	79	87
2024-02-23	39.64	36.82	-4.20	82512	Upward Expansion	80	92
2024-02-16	39.41	36.72	-3.26	87197	Upward Expansion	77	92
2024-02-09	39.42	36.61	-3.62	69587	Upward Expansion	83	93
2024-02-02	39.21	36.50	-2.87	67226	Upward Expansion	84	93
2024-01-26	38.95	36.38	-2.16	37628	Upward Expansion	82	86
2024-01-19	38.64	36.27	-1.97	35294	Upward Expansion	79	81
2024-01-12	38.39	36.16	-1.48	228494	Upward Expansion	77	86
2024-01-05	37.85	36.06	-1.08	48932	Upward Expansion	68	85
2023-12-29	38.21	35.96	-1.70	19692	Upward Expansion	80	91
2023-12-22	38.05	35.84	-1.82	34978	Upward Expansion	83	93
2023-12-15	37.90	35.71	-1.37	39088	Upward Expansion	86	91
2023-12-08	37.18	35.59	-0.95	32222	Upward Expansion	77	85
2023-12-01	37.09	35.47	-0.95	45885	Upward Expansion	79	81
2023-11-24	36.83	35.36	-0.80	8138	Balance	75	55
2023-11-17	36.53	35.26	-0.62	248910	Balance	56	32
2023-11-10	35.86	35.17	-0.17	35227	Rotation Down	14	14
2023-11-03	35.48	35.10	0.15	29362	Rotation Down	-14	23
2023-10-27	33.91	35.03	1.31	15423	Rotation Down	-47	62
2023-10-20	34.62	35.02	0.90	9548	Deceleration	-35	42
2023-10-13	35.25	34.95	0.29	239251	Deceleration	2	23

Price vs TrendAbove+4.1%

Trend directionRising+4.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+22.1%

Fair Value directionMoving away-0.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.1%

Price momentumPositive+11.1%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.55×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

76 / ±100

+0.1 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

68 /100

-5.6 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BAPR Directional State ↗ BAPR Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance6

Rotation Up64

Upward Expansion90

Deceleration60

Rotation Down28

Downward Expansion12

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 3%Rotation Up 4%Upward Expansion 78%Deceleration 7%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 5%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2025-08-01	2026-10-02	Extended	+20.6%
Rotation Up	2025-06-20	2025-07-25	Developing	+3.6%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-06-13	New	+0.5%
Downward Expansion	2025-04-11	2025-05-23	Developing	+5.8%
Rotation Down	2025-03-28	2025-04-04	New	-6.5%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-31	2025-03-21	Developing	-5.5%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-01-24	New	+1.2%
Upward Expansion	2024-09-06	2025-01-10	Established	+6.4%
Deceleration	2024-08-16	2024-08-30	New	+1.3%
Upward Expansion	2024-05-24	2024-08-09	Developing	+1.0%
Deceleration	2024-04-26	2024-05-17	New	+3.1%
Upward Expansion	2023-12-01	2024-04-19	Established	+3.8%
Balance	2023-11-17	2023-11-24	New	+0.8%
Rotation Down	2023-10-27	2023-11-10	New	+5.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing17

Stage 2 · Advancing89

Stage 3 · Distribution71

Stage 4 · Declining11

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 57/100
Current Relative Strength: -0.28
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +11.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -6.6%
Sector regime cohort: 89th percentile941 in cohort

Test BAPR trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.58×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.55×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+0.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BAPR Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 54.68rising

Slow Activity USD 53.65rising

Trend Reference USD 52.67+4.1% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 44.91+22.1% close margin

Structural low USD 49.19shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +0.7%

Annualized volatility +5.7%

From structural high -0.0%

From structural low +17.7%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	48	+0.9%-6.1% to +5.2%	+68.8%	+68.8%	-0.4%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	16	+2.6%-7.0% to +9.0%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-0.4%	+68.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	9	+6.5%-7.8% to +12.3%	+88.9%	+88.9%	-2.5%	+77.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	+11.9%-3.9% to +19.9%	+75.0%	+75.0%	-5.7%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BAPR Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map