Weekly structural research · NYSE · Utilities

NI Stage Analysis

NiSource Inc

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close USD 39.43Tenure DevelopingBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: stable.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -73−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 71/100directional strength

Maturity 23/100lifecycle context

Confidence 95/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -66.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +9.0%USD 36.18 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	39.43	45.08	-18.16	29341776	Downward Expansion	-73	71
2026-09-25	39.42	45.30	-18.70	35455130	Downward Expansion	-78	67
2026-09-18	40.58	45.55	-15.57	25891154	Downward Expansion	-69	72
2026-09-11	41.41	45.74	-14.10	18420530	Downward Expansion	-65	80
2026-09-04	41.39	45.89	-14.99	28466742	Downward Expansion	-67	84
2026-08-28	40.57	45.97	-16.78	21979024	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2026-08-21	40.62	46.08	-16.59	28762528	Rotation Down	-86	87
2026-08-14	42.50	46.15	-14.26	31200180	Rotation Down	-51	69
2026-08-07	42.61	46.18	-14.16	42279583	Balance	-53	62
2026-07-31	44.43	46.14	-7.64	21036416	Balance	-31	29
2026-07-24	46.37	46.05	-2.80	23718604	Balance	10	11
2026-07-17	45.67	45.88	-4.89	25759250	Balance	7	5
2026-07-10	46.59	45.70	-4.57	18221815	Upward Expansion	43	25
2026-07-03	47.50	45.51	-1.39	25854636	Upward Expansion	50	32
2026-06-26	48.75	45.31	3.45	26688324	Deceleration	65	36
2026-06-19	47.26	45.14	-2.02	17586661	Deceleration	39	19
2026-06-12	47.21	44.97	-1.28	15511412	Deceleration	38	21
2026-06-05	46.61	44.81	-2.02	17206629	Deceleration	34	17
2026-05-29	46.22	44.69	-5.31	13448614	Deceleration	37	19
2026-05-22	47.85	44.53	-0.70	20664364	Upward Expansion	51	31
2026-05-15	46.30	44.36	-3.14	18750236	Upward Expansion	45	31
2026-05-08	46.72	44.23	-2.11	33136061	Upward Expansion	59	44
2026-05-01	48.08	44.08	2.93	35343716	Upward Expansion	66	62
2026-04-24	47.69	43.91	3.01	21322546	Upward Expansion	63	63
2026-04-17	48.01	43.71	4.15	26326578	Upward Expansion	72	56
2026-04-10	47.75	43.43	8.10	15654667	Upward Expansion	70	47
2026-04-03	47.20	43.17	10.68	12033284	Upward Expansion	70	46
2026-03-27	45.69	42.92	10.81	15222638	Upward Expansion	57	42
2026-03-20	44.74	42.78	6.15	15504012	Upward Expansion	62	51
2026-03-13	47.10	42.69	9.76	18723343	Upward Expansion	74	84
2026-03-06	46.17	42.49	6.07	20399516	Upward Expansion	67	84
2026-02-27	47.01	42.33	5.94	23143013	Upward Expansion	84	89
2026-02-20	46.08	42.16	3.38	13832594	Upward Expansion	81	84
2026-02-13	46.07	41.99	4.57	30429293	Upward Expansion	86	82
2026-02-06	43.83	41.79	-1.69	25654824	Upward Expansion	66	67
2026-01-30	43.72	41.61	-2.08	20653102	Balance	65	55
2026-01-23	42.85	41.44	-3.56	19519673	Balance	42	28
2026-01-16	43.36	41.31	-2.69	19639483	Balance	47	23
2026-01-09	41.49	41.14	-7.20	13831907	Balance	8	12
2026-01-02	41.62	41.04	-5.44	10026444	Balance	7	16
2025-12-26	41.18	40.93	-7.37	8664741	Balance	7	18
2025-12-19	40.44	40.84	-7.74	20089892	Balance	-0	9
2025-12-12	40.88	40.76	-6.64	13924429	Upward Expansion	21	11
2025-12-05	41.46	40.67	-5.82	18711978	Upward Expansion	36	22
2025-11-28	43.56	40.57	-0.67	14345501	Upward Expansion	63	38
2025-11-21	42.23	40.40	-0.08	14765694	Upward Expansion	50	29
2025-11-14	42.33	40.26	-1.70	18761206	Upward Expansion	54	34
2025-11-07	42.99	40.12	0.05	21752133	Upward Expansion	64	41
2025-10-31	41.57	39.93	-4.67	34751906	Upward Expansion	57	40
2025-10-24	42.78	39.74	-1.11	20837151	Upward Expansion	64	65
2025-10-17	42.41	39.60	0.08	17093002	Upward Expansion	61	61
2025-10-10	42.03	39.45	1.08	19955172	Upward Expansion	57	44
2025-10-03	42.98	39.32	1.11	19683497	Deceleration	69	39
2025-09-26	41.74	39.13	-0.52	29970770	Deceleration	46	24
2025-09-19	39.54	39.06	-5.90	25713035	Deceleration	28	20
2025-09-12	40.21	39.03	-3.06	16755290	Upward Expansion	40	26
2025-09-05	39.55	38.97	-3.09	31115019	Upward Expansion	46	34
2025-08-29	41.45	38.87	1.97	13583898	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-08-22	42.11	38.69	3.79	14426040	Upward Expansion	75	82
2025-08-15	41.13	38.49	1.98	18214707	Upward Expansion	64	78
2025-08-08	41.46	38.34	4.06	28844877	Upward Expansion	70	79
2025-08-01	41.76	38.11	7.71	19054851	Upward Expansion	80	77
2025-07-25	41.09	37.88	3.72	21073724	Upward Expansion	77	66
2025-07-18	39.84	37.69	2.40	20207235	Upward Expansion	65	45
2025-07-11	38.55	37.52	0.02	20506832	Upward Expansion	47	26
2025-07-04	38.54	37.40	0.04	15786854	Upward Expansion	49	28
2025-06-27	38.94	37.31	3.19	25397031	Upward Expansion	53	28
2025-06-20	38.50	37.23	6.00	19032828	Upward Expansion	48	25
2025-06-13	38.50	37.15	6.33	19952976	Upward Expansion	49	25
2025-06-06	38.26	37.04	5.80	17958767	Upward Expansion	46	23
2025-05-30	38.52	36.91	8.72	13882085	Upward Expansion	51	27
2025-05-23	38.01	36.73	9.64	22145762	Upward Expansion	48	27
2025-05-16	38.07	36.57	7.54	19244105	Upward Expansion	50	30
2025-05-09	38.56	36.42	15.09	28652569	Deceleration	54	33
2025-05-02	38.28	36.21	14.37	23887075	Deceleration	53	29
2025-04-25	38.16	36.04	17.87	22375942	Deceleration	39	18
2025-04-18	38.00	35.86	23.49	14578921	Deceleration	37	18
2025-04-11	37.23	35.67	20.03	36660772	Deceleration	32	16
2025-04-04	36.00	35.51	23.45	29889026	Upward Expansion	30	20
2025-03-28	38.61	35.37	21.27	18345129	Upward Expansion	62	41
2025-03-21	37.94	35.13	18.19	30740445	Upward Expansion	58	45
2025-03-14	38.19	34.90	20.28	26640053	Upward Expansion	62	53
2025-03-07	37.24	34.64	15.36	30842223	Upward Expansion	64	71
2025-02-28	39.47	34.40	19.12	25102644	Upward Expansion	83	89
2025-02-21	38.76	34.09	16.57	16279183	Upward Expansion	82	82
2025-02-14	38.38	33.79	14.21	26058096	Upward Expansion	81	70
2025-02-07	36.69	33.47	11.33	14069444	Upward Expansion	67	51
2025-01-31	35.81	33.19	8.99	26259698	Upward Expansion	57	43
2025-01-24	36.25	32.90	9.62	14406938	Upward Expansion	66	47
2025-01-17	36.59	32.59	12.96	14949776	Deceleration	74	47
2025-01-10	34.59	32.27	10.39	12821066	Deceleration	41	30
2025-01-03	34.94	32.00	9.60	12267794	Upward Expansion	45	37
2024-12-27	35.29	31.73	10.34	6466492	Upward Expansion	51	45
2024-12-20	34.73	31.47	9.55	24473412	Upward Expansion	63	60
2024-12-13	35.09	31.19	8.93	22684407	Upward Expansion	66	66
2024-12-06	35.58	30.94	10.00	19359386	Upward Expansion	68	81
2024-11-29	36.57	30.66	14.25	10776596	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-11-22	36.20	30.34	14.74	18001764	Upward Expansion	92	88
2024-11-15	35.11	30.00	13.41	24032380	Upward Expansion	87	73
2024-11-08	34.53	29.70	9.46	21911532	Upward Expansion	87	73
2024-11-01	33.11	29.39	10.12	19578144	Upward Expansion	67	64
2024-10-25	33.18	29.13	8.92	13215210	Upward Expansion	71	67
2024-10-18	33.48	28.89	8.89	11332239	Upward Expansion	81	71
2024-10-11	32.33	28.62	6.11	10846915	Upward Expansion	67	66
2024-10-04	33.01	28.37	9.59	12193309	Upward Expansion	77	71
2024-09-27	32.76	28.11	9.23	15798425	Upward Expansion	78	81
2024-09-20	32.47	27.83	9.03	19241248	Upward Expansion	79	87
2024-09-13	32.46	27.57	10.50	25039893	Upward Expansion	86	93
2024-09-06	31.64	27.29	12.02	11267903	Upward Expansion	80	90
2024-08-30	31.50	27.03	7.02	29305972	Upward Expansion	84	90
2024-08-23	31.08	26.77	5.93	15682497	Upward Expansion	83	91
2024-08-16	30.40	26.54	5.02	20195788	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-08-09	29.87	26.31	7.28	25663357	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-08-02	30.31	26.14	8.87	18769073	Upward Expansion	88	94
2024-07-26	29.60	25.97	4.14	19216805	Upward Expansion	85	87
2024-07-19	28.81	25.80	0.43	15754430	Upward Expansion	80	75
2024-07-12	28.41	25.65	-3.07	18984859	Upward Expansion	77	52
2024-07-05	26.97	25.52	-7.34	15029592	Deceleration	44	31
2024-06-28	27.22	25.44	-4.99	22784264	Deceleration	50	33
2024-06-21	26.76	25.34	-6.89	24187518	Upward Expansion	44	34
2024-06-14	26.62	25.25	-7.05	18099567	Upward Expansion	56	39
2024-06-07	26.72	25.17	-5.44	20635593	Upward Expansion	61	49
2024-05-31	27.46	25.05	-1.90	19646515	Upward Expansion	72	68
2024-05-24	26.49	24.93	-5.90	17630192	Upward Expansion	65	75
2024-05-17	27.62	24.81	-2.22	24283467	Upward Expansion	81	87
2024-05-10	27.10	24.67	-2.76	28734012	Upward Expansion	76	78
2024-05-03	26.97	24.55	-1.85	18676120	Upward Expansion	79	69
2024-04-26	26.15	24.40	-4.62	20208005	Upward Expansion	69	52
2024-04-19	25.81	24.29	-3.76	19119598	Upward Expansion	65	56
2024-04-12	25.34	24.24	-8.81	20395581	Upward Expansion	59	59
2024-04-05	25.45	24.24	-10.13	13745443	Upward Expansion	61	63
2024-03-29	25.89	24.22	-9.87	17113666	Upward Expansion	76	72
2024-03-22	25.37	24.17	-11.78	18288734	Upward Expansion	68	64
2024-03-15	24.80	24.14	-12.21	26234734	Upward Expansion	54	51
2024-03-08	25.28	24.12	-11.06	21349891	Balance	65	47
2024-03-01	24.46	24.10	-14.56	28922934	Balance	35	16
2024-02-23	24.45	24.09	-14.20	28955424	Balance	22	11
2024-02-16	24.24	24.12	-13.97	19108076	Balance	-14	14
2024-02-09	23.63	24.17	-16.77	18411525	Balance	-35	27
2024-02-02	23.96	24.23	-14.82	23271738	Balance	-5	10
2024-01-26	23.92	24.26	-14.10	22156717	Balance	-1	3
2024-01-19	23.72	24.29	-14.31	14261936	Rotation Up	-8	10
2024-01-12	24.77	24.31	-9.81	18043747	Rotation Up	20	31
2024-01-05	25.05	24.32	-7.44	13383883	Rotation Up	28	37
2023-12-29	24.60	24.30	-10.86	8808498	Balance	19	24
2023-12-22	24.32	24.29	-11.94	21000931	Balance	14	16
2023-12-15	24.53	24.30	-10.77	27691967	Balance	16	17
2023-12-08	24.36	24.31	-9.61	23661799	Balance	-6	13
2023-12-01	24.27	24.36	-10.04	37801917	Downward Expansion	-21	14
2023-11-24	24.18	24.41	-9.89	17436220	Downward Expansion	-29	17
2023-11-17	24.16	24.47	-9.31	45619975	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2023-11-10	23.16	24.53	-11.25	27535078	Downward Expansion	-58	35
2023-11-03	23.83	24.59	-7.63	31351652	Downward Expansion	-55	35
2023-10-27	23.07	24.66	-5.58	28930734	Downward Expansion	-62	61
2023-10-20	23.13	24.73	-7.80	24684942	Downward Expansion	-61	70
2023-10-13	23.65	24.76	-8.12	30523215	Downward Expansion	-57	66

Price vs TrendBelow-12.5%

Trend directionFalling-2.1%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+9.0%

Fair Value directionMoving away-28.0%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-18.2%

Relative strength directionWeakening-16.8%

Price momentumNegative-16.5%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-73 / ±100

-6.3 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

71 /100

-12.4 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

NI Directional State ↗ NI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance12

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration44

Rotation Down65

Downward Expansion88

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 14%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 63%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 1%Downward Expansion 9%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-08-28	2026-10-02	Developing	-2.8%
Rotation Down	2026-08-14	2026-08-21	New	-4.4%
Balance	2026-07-17	2026-08-07	New	-6.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-07-10	New	-1.9%
Deceleration	2026-05-29	2026-06-26	Developing	+5.5%
Upward Expansion	2026-02-06	2026-05-22	Established	+9.2%
Balance	2025-12-19	2026-01-30	Developing	+8.1%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-12-12	Developing	-2.7%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-10-03	New	+8.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-09-12	Established	+5.6%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-05-09	Developing	+3.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-24	2025-04-04	Developing	-0.7%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-01-17	New	+5.8%
Upward Expansion	2024-07-12	2025-01-03	Established	+23.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing40

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution50

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 97/100
Current Relative Strength: -18.16
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -16.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -34.1%
Utilities regime cohort: 89th percentile55 in cohort

Test NI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.20×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution2 / 6

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationStable

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore NI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 40.05falling

Slow Activity USD 43.79falling

Trend Reference USD 45.08-12.5% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 36.18+9.0% close margin

Structural low USD 38.42shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +15.7%

From structural high -19.5%

From structural low +2.6%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	+1.9%-2.8% to +5.6%	+85.7%	+14.3%	-2.6%	+71.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	2	+10.4%+9.8% to +11.1%	+100.0%	+0.0%	+2.0%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+12.9%+12.8% to +13.0%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-5.6%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+23.9%+1.6% to +46.3%	+100.0%	+0.0%	-4.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

NI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map