Weekly structural research · GER · Industrials

BFSA Stage Analysis

Befesa S.A.

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close EUR 34.05Tenure NewBenchmark ^GDAXI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Recompressing

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.

Direction 22−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 21/100directional strength

Maturity 59/100lifecycle context

Confidence 86/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +16.7%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +22.7%EUR 27.76 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	34.05	33.37	5.45	341596	Deceleration	22	21
2026-09-25	34.70	33.24	6.99	277291	Upward Expansion	41	26
2026-09-18	34.05	33.19	5.75	636865	Upward Expansion	44	35
2026-09-11	36.80	33.13	13.45	393464	Upward Expansion	67	67
2026-09-04	37.05	32.95	12.69	60018	Upward Expansion	74	76
2026-08-28	36.90	32.73	10.53	68161	Upward Expansion	76	79
2026-08-21	36.05	32.50	10.24	60097	Upward Expansion	69	74
2026-08-14	35.80	32.33	8.66	34670	Upward Expansion	67	75
2026-08-07	36.00	32.15	10.15	35189	Upward Expansion	72	75
2026-07-31	34.95	31.97	10.32	108468	Balance	61	60
2026-07-24	35.10	31.78	13.65	45196	Balance	61	33
2026-07-17	34.65	31.53	14.02	88427	Balance	41	25
2026-07-10	32.05	31.30	4.96	65857	Balance	18	23
2026-07-03	31.65	31.15	1.00	76558	Upward Expansion	20	19
2026-06-26	29.80	31.00	-0.51	46932	Upward Expansion	14	12
2026-06-19	33.25	30.90	9.73	98524	Upward Expansion	57	44
2026-06-12	34.59	30.67	16.26	69704	Upward Expansion	60	56
2026-06-05	34.34	30.42	15.43	38209	Upward Expansion	61	57
2026-05-29	35.95	30.14	19.76	278117	Upward Expansion	76	61
2026-05-22	33.47	29.87	13.12	266197	Upward Expansion	60	41
2026-05-15	33.76	29.74	19.13	267759	Upward Expansion	65	57
2026-05-08	33.28	29.58	16.20	191772	Upward Expansion	62	66
2026-05-01	31.77	29.45	11.63	348133	Upward Expansion	56	57
2026-04-24	33.03	29.35	17.29	177194	Upward Expansion	61	60
2026-04-17	34.30	29.16	19.56	238486	Deceleration	68	48
2026-04-10	32.84	28.92	19.43	256326	Deceleration	36	19
2026-04-03	28.76	28.70	8.10	189414	Deceleration	-17	30
2026-03-27	27.53	28.62	7.83	335591	Deceleration	-21	31
2026-03-20	26.91	28.59	5.18	397865	Deceleration	3	15
2026-03-13	27.65	28.60	3.32	565664	Upward Expansion	21	19
2026-03-06	30.31	28.60	12.89	515970	Upward Expansion	60	49
2026-02-27	33.03	28.45	15.30	688700	Upward Expansion	79	69
2026-02-20	32.39	28.19	13.85	446941	Upward Expansion	80	69
2026-02-13	31.48	27.96	12.82	1101164	Upward Expansion	76	64
2026-02-06	30.20	27.80	9.70	513824	Upward Expansion	64	73
2026-01-30	30.10	27.72	10.73	544473	Upward Expansion	66	79
2026-01-23	30.99	27.63	12.97	553352	Upward Expansion	78	83
2026-01-16	30.37	27.51	9.55	296607	Upward Expansion	78	81
2026-01-09	30.60	27.32	11.05	292770	Upward Expansion	83	75
2026-01-02	29.11	27.16	9.26	98358	Balance	58	42
2025-12-26	27.81	27.06	5.61	144760	Balance	37	21
2025-12-19	27.65	26.99	5.54	211003	Balance	30	13
2025-12-12	27.73	26.90	6.57	171620	Balance	16	12
2025-12-05	27.03	26.82	4.83	147180	Balance	-11	16
2025-11-28	26.70	26.78	4.59	312456	Balance	-3	18
2025-11-21	26.33	26.73	6.75	179585	Upward Expansion	11	20
2025-11-14	27.05	26.64	6.51	202837	Upward Expansion	28	18
2025-11-07	26.17	26.49	4.75	274107	Upward Expansion	26	17
2025-10-31	27.88	26.31	10.02	393675	Upward Expansion	60	56
2025-10-24	29.30	26.12	14.57	230641	Upward Expansion	69	75
2025-10-17	28.99	26.00	15.46	341245	Upward Expansion	67	71
2025-10-10	29.44	25.88	15.33	388027	Upward Expansion	74	69
2025-10-03	28.72	25.67	11.89	289515	Deceleration	69	49
2025-09-26	27.49	25.50	9.73	303682	Deceleration	56	29
2025-09-19	27.01	25.29	7.96	309135	Deceleration	50	24
2025-09-12	26.37	25.10	4.90	251824	Deceleration	45	25
2025-09-05	26.37	24.92	5.11	170079	Deceleration	49	33
2025-08-29	26.66	24.71	4.69	161366	Deceleration	50	33
2025-08-22	27.13	24.49	4.04	197368	Deceleration	55	30
2025-08-15	27.51	24.25	5.06	425103	Deceleration	50	23
2025-08-08	25.96	23.99	-0.44	313677	Deceleration	34	20
2025-08-01	25.09	23.76	-1.37	497806	Upward Expansion	40	24
2025-07-25	25.57	23.57	-3.47	382903	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-07-18	26.56	23.38	-0.79	401461	Upward Expansion	61	63
2025-07-11	27.83	23.14	3.08	477352	Upward Expansion	72	67
2025-07-04	27.40	22.90	2.61	268096	Upward Expansion	69	49
2025-06-27	27.36	22.68	0.56	674257	Upward Expansion	69	44
2025-06-20	24.79	22.40	-6.96	314297	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-06-13	25.83	22.16	-4.53	346703	Upward Expansion	60	43
2025-06-06	26.05	21.91	-7.52	287828	Upward Expansion	64	52
2025-05-30	25.83	21.68	-7.96	263333	Upward Expansion	64	61
2025-05-23	24.99	21.47	-10.40	227463	Upward Expansion	59	59
2025-05-16	25.26	21.37	-10.87	306838	Upward Expansion	61	60
2025-05-09	25.92	21.30	-8.27	367725	Deceleration	69	55
2025-05-02	24.95	21.22	-10.61	488494	Deceleration	53	27
2025-04-25	23.63	21.23	-12.70	184941	Deceleration	41	24
2025-04-18	22.58	21.29	-12.87	295873	Rotation Up	39	22
2025-04-11	20.95	21.32	-16.72	504855	Rotation Up	50	35
2025-04-04	22.09	21.40	-14.44	456112	Rotation Up	37	56
2025-03-28	25.71	21.42	-9.57	493913	Rotation Up	56	79
2025-03-21	25.26	21.42	-13.44	692140	Rotation Up	60	76
2025-03-14	23.28	21.43	-21.07	392289	Rotation Up	38	60
2025-03-07	23.47	21.47	-21.12	596419	Balance	42	53
2025-02-28	21.45	21.52	-27.08	578146	Balance	2	15
2025-02-21	21.22	21.69	-27.66	364609	Balance	-2	10
2025-02-14	20.84	21.90	-30.31	341975	Downward Expansion	-15	12
2025-02-07	20.21	22.20	-30.90	366971	Downward Expansion	-34	19
2025-01-31	19.91	22.56	-32.52	374233	Downward Expansion	-39	28
2025-01-24	20.10	22.91	-31.66	381854	Downward Expansion	-52	35
2025-01-17	19.64	23.22	-32.39	498226	Downward Expansion	-55	41
2025-01-10	18.96	23.49	-33.31	473820	Downward Expansion	-63	46
2025-01-03	19.59	23.79	-30.90	142559	Downward Expansion	-44	37
2024-12-27	19.66	24.13	-31.72	123726	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2024-12-20	19.55	24.49	-32.64	945351	Downward Expansion	-49	40
2024-12-13	20.54	24.89	-31.88	548250	Downward Expansion	-61	54
2024-12-06	20.71	25.20	-32.05	1616064	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-11-29	19.08	25.41	-35.66	631346	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2024-11-22	17.54	25.66	-40.56	565530	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2024-11-15	18.31	25.90	-38.30	447230	Downward Expansion	-86	94
2024-11-08	19.06	26.30	-36.46	445857	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2024-11-01	19.68	26.77	-35.13	779352	Downward Expansion	-89	90
2024-10-25	21.98	27.25	-28.88	462114	Downward Expansion	-79	60
2024-10-18	23.23	27.50	-26.14	464169	Downward Expansion	-67	43
2024-10-11	23.44	27.67	-24.83	247093	Downward Expansion	-59	41
2024-10-04	25.16	27.81	-18.73	210803	Downward Expansion	-58	44
2024-09-27	25.41	27.90	-19.80	393901	Downward Expansion	-62	63
2024-09-20	23.74	27.98	-22.45	304979	Downward Expansion	-65	75
2024-09-13	23.13	28.11	-24.74	265107	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2024-09-06	22.64	28.30	-25.25	326155	Downward Expansion	-83	83
2024-08-30	25.75	28.51	-18.30	168851	Downward Expansion	-63	74
2024-08-23	25.58	28.66	-18.24	328259	Downward Expansion	-63	76
2024-08-16	24.46	28.80	-20.91	292692	Downward Expansion	-76	79
2024-08-09	25.12	28.97	-16.51	280639	Balance	-71	66
2024-08-02	26.43	29.16	-12.50	236201	Balance	-60	43
2024-07-26	27.51	29.32	-13.21	377007	Balance	-13	9
2024-07-19	29.88	29.49	-4.91	162284	Balance	18	23
2024-07-12	30.89	29.55	-5.02	182266	Balance	24	16
2024-07-05	30.43	29.60	-5.42	263976	Balance	-17	9
2024-06-28	29.45	29.60	-7.66	253637	Balance	-37	19
2024-06-21	27.82	29.62	-12.81	494008	Balance	-46	19
2024-06-14	28.09	29.66	-11.62	303212	Balance	-31	18
2024-06-07	29.66	29.68	-9.86	451985	Balance	9	16
2024-05-31	30.57	29.59	-7.25	312358	Balance	12	13
2024-05-24	31.31	29.40	-6.41	388312	Balance	-15	15
2024-05-17	29.81	29.23	-11.36	461848	Rotation Down	-18	28
2024-05-10	27.25	29.05	-19.76	413597	Rotation Down	-27	34
2024-05-03	26.49	29.02	-19.33	851048	Rotation Down	-30	23
2024-04-26	24.57	29.01	-26.37	1269413	Rotation Down	6	9
2024-04-19	30.57	29.08	-7.13	287567	Upward Expansion	55	52
2024-04-12	33.18	28.95	-0.86	500193	Balance	70	53
2024-04-05	33.79	28.81	-0.87	603338	Balance	60	36
2024-03-29	29.53	28.66	-15.16	245212	Rotation Down	4	7
2024-03-22	28.42	28.72	-17.76	305684	Rotation Down	-17	26
2024-03-15	27.51	28.73	-19.91	415071	Rotation Down	-26	44
2024-03-08	28.11	28.78	-18.62	253673	Rotation Down	-19	35
2024-03-01	27.81	28.93	-19.97	533925	Deceleration	-23	28
2024-02-23	27.59	29.10	-19.99	257094	Deceleration	-24	23
2024-02-16	28.72	29.23	-16.29	457469	Deceleration	14	16
2024-02-09	28.90	29.31	-15.87	332655	Deceleration	21	18
2024-02-02	30.44	29.43	-12.37	494310	Deceleration	6	11
2024-01-26	29.55	29.46	-16.12	1322943	Rotation Up	9	11
2024-01-19	29.72	29.56	-14.71	256342	Rotation Up	16	18
2024-01-12	30.79	29.63	-13.57	311909	Rotation Up	31	33
2024-01-05	31.14	29.67	-13.02	234920	Rotation Up	26	48
2023-12-29	32.61	29.72	-10.61	88922	Rotation Up	35	59
2023-12-22	31.90	29.74	-13.06	330702	Rotation Up	31	53
2023-12-15	32.13	29.80	-13.43	909503	Balance	34	40
2023-12-08	30.57	29.91	-18.28	324321	Balance	4	22
2023-12-01	30.11	30.07	-18.31	581466	Downward Expansion	-10	18
2023-11-24	29.01	30.21	-20.03	259557	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2023-11-17	28.72	30.47	-20.88	524237	Downward Expansion	-41	26
2023-11-10	26.85	30.73	-23.24	573241	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2023-11-03	24.98	31.05	-28.94	553763	Downward Expansion	-66	52
2023-10-27	25.99	31.37	-24.02	532857	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2023-10-20	24.60	31.76	-28.99	337536	Downward Expansion	-77	75
2023-10-13	26.33	32.17	-26.36	394830	Downward Expansion	-68	71

Price vs TrendAbove+2.0%

Trend directionRising+5.0%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+22.7%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+6.8%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+5.4%

Relative strength directionImproving+4.4%

Price momentumPositive+18.4%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.46×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

22 / ±100

-51.4 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

21 /100

-54.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BFSA Directional State ↗ BFSA Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance39

Rotation Up26

Upward Expansion59

Deceleration85

Rotation Down39

Downward Expansion23

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 31%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 5%Downward Expansion 22%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-10-02	2026-10-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	-3.6%
Balance	2026-07-10	2026-07-31	New	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-07-03	Developing	-4.2%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+27.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-13	Developing	-9.7%
Balance	2025-11-28	2026-01-02	Developing	+9.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-10-10	2025-11-21	Developing	-10.6%
Deceleration	2025-08-08	2025-10-03	Developing	+10.6%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-08-01	Developing	-0.7%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-09	New	+9.7%
Rotation Up	2025-03-14	2025-04-18	Developing	-3.0%
Balance	2025-02-21	2025-03-07	New	+10.6%
Downward Expansion	2024-08-16	2025-02-14	Extended	-14.8%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing33

Stage 2 · Advancing86

Stage 3 · Distribution57

Stage 4 · Declining14

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^GDAXI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 59/100
Current Relative Strength: 5.45
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +18.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +9.5%
Industrials regime cohort: 36th percentile22 in cohort

Test BFSA trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.21×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.46×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+12.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BFSA Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 34.79falling

Slow Activity EUR 34.47rising

Trend Reference EUR 33.37+2.0% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 27.76+22.7% close margin

Structural low EUR 28.22shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.5%

Annualized volatility +35.5%

From structural high -10.6%

From structural low +31.8%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^GDAXI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	13	-2.3%-8.6% to +27.4%	+38.5%	+38.5%	-0.5%	+46.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+3.5%-18.7% to +23.6%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+0.3%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	+7.3%-22.8% to +26.5%	+60.0%	+60.0%	+13.4%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-27.3%-48.6% to +39.8%	+25.0%	+25.0%	-37.4%	+25.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BFSA Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map