Weekly structural research · HKG · Industrials

1826 Stage Analysis

FDB Holdings Limited

Week ending 2 Oct 2026Close HKD 0.62Tenure NewBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction 85−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 88/100directional strength

Maturity 28/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance +100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +551.4%HKD 0.0952 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-02	0.62	0.2064	292.30	12175000	Upward Expansion	85	88
2026-09-25	0.60	0.1917	298.23	14067064	Upward Expansion	93	97
2026-09-18	0.585	0.1777	312.59	42555000	Upward Expansion	99	99
2026-09-11	0.475	0.1642	259.62	49895000	Upward Expansion	99	99
2026-09-04	0.295	0.1543	129.60	14805000	Rotation Up	96	98
2026-08-28	0.285	0.1505	129.94	7740000	Rotation Up	69	89
2026-08-21	0.182	0.1475	49.24	4470000	Rotation Up	40	71
2026-08-14	0.197	0.1478	70.16	2100000	Rotation Up	49	59
2026-08-07	0.162	0.1467	39.27	3570000	Downward Expansion	11	18
2026-07-31	0.126	0.1478	8.96	540000	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-07-24	0.118	0.1467	6.58	360000	Downward Expansion	-44	30
2026-07-17	0.109	0.1461	1.06	220000	Downward Expansion	-51	36
2026-07-10	0.125	0.1447	18.91	3580000	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2026-07-03	0.106	0.1429	5.55	1260000	Downward Expansion	-65	57
2026-06-26	0.112	0.1415	16.00	180000	Rotation Down	-62	53
2026-06-19	0.1063	0.1397	5.63	21071	Rotation Down	-42	43
2026-06-12	0.113	0.138	9.83	0	Rotation Down	-37	47
2026-06-05	0.112	0.136	9.15	1310000	Rotation Down	-40	64
2026-05-29	0.126	0.1341	23.11	3640000	Rotation Down	-27	60
2026-05-22	0.101	0.1317	-1.80	3020000	Deceleration	-43	71
2026-05-15	0.108	0.1302	4.28	4870000	Deceleration	-25	53
2026-05-08	0.121	0.1286	15.94	1020000	Deceleration	-14	20
2026-05-01	0.147	0.127	45.42	1520000	Deceleration	21	24
2026-04-24	0.173	0.1245	72.23	360000	Deceleration	49	38
2026-04-17	0.169	0.1211	70.33	190000	Deceleration	41	27
2026-04-10	0.174	0.1178	81.18	1210000	Deceleration	42	24
2026-04-03	0.16	0.1144	75.92	630000	Deceleration	33	19
2026-03-27	0.154	0.1116	74.44	480000	Deceleration	37	24
2026-03-20	0.163	0.109	86.48	650000	Deceleration	41	31
2026-03-13	0.169	0.106	96.89	650000	Deceleration	44	38
2026-03-06	0.179	0.1035	111.93	3930000	Deceleration	47	42
2026-02-27	0.178	0.10	109.85	1720000	Upward Expansion	59	51
2026-02-20	0.18	0.0967	119.52	20000	Upward Expansion	63	58
2026-02-13	0.179	0.0928	123.28	1250000	Upward Expansion	65	63
2026-02-06	0.18	0.0886	130.26	2860000	Upward Expansion	68	80
2026-01-30	0.195	0.0848	147.75	4600000	Upward Expansion	79	92
2026-01-23	0.191	0.0802	155.13	7700000	Upward Expansion	87	95
2026-01-16	0.165	0.0756	126.86	16200000	Upward Expansion	86	93
2026-01-09	0.195	0.0718	181.87	40710000	Upward Expansion	97	95
2026-01-02	0.094	0.0668	40.52	6260000	Rotation Up	80	80
2025-12-26	0.099	0.0653	52.17	9370000	Rotation Up	76	55
2025-12-19	0.067	0.064	4.69	2680000	Balance	8	17
2025-12-12	0.072	0.0637	11.33	12460000	Rotation Down	13	14
2025-12-05	0.064	0.0631	-1.78	3640000	Rotation Down	-16	18
2025-11-28	0.057	0.0632	-11.73	220000	Rotation Down	-31	44
2025-11-21	0.056	0.0634	-11.12	750000	Rotation Down	-25	52
2025-11-14	0.051	0.0636	-23.22	1520000	Rotation Down	-32	55
2025-11-07	0.057	0.0634	-13.34	50000	Rotation Down	-21	43
2025-10-31	0.053	0.063	-18.53	410000	Deceleration	-24	30
2025-10-24	0.056	0.0628	-15.16	2060000	Deceleration	0	9
2025-10-17	0.06	0.0625	-6.05	14180000	Deceleration	16	9
2025-10-10	0.072	0.062	7.96	1370000	Deceleration	31	14
2025-10-03	0.073	0.0611	5.66	1040000	Deceleration	31	15
2025-09-26	0.071	0.0604	6.44	930000	Deceleration	32	15
2025-09-19	0.07	0.0599	3.18	2630000	Deceleration	34	17
2025-09-12	0.072	0.0594	6.37	300000	Upward Expansion	48	25
2025-09-05	0.075	0.0591	14.90	1870000	Upward Expansion	54	37
2025-08-29	0.076	0.0589	17.54	1370000	Upward Expansion	57	48
2025-08-22	0.073	0.0585	11.38	6600000	Upward Expansion	59	62
2025-08-15	0.096	0.0577	47.24	4310000	Upward Expansion	80	73
2025-08-08	0.074	0.0561	15.83	13770000	Upward Expansion	62	56
2025-08-01	0.078	0.0551	23.61	3490000	Balance	73	61
2025-07-25	0.062	0.0542	-5.19	270000	Balance	53	35
2025-07-18	0.055	0.0537	-14.53	840000	Balance	43	22
2025-07-11	0.065	0.0535	2.42	910000	Balance	53	24
2025-07-04	0.056	0.0535	-11.77	880000	Balance	1	5
2025-06-27	0.054	0.0532	-17.14	6290000	Balance	-6	12
2025-06-20	0.051	0.0529	-20.19	180000	Balance	-9	17
2025-06-13	0.045	0.0527	-31.50	370000	Balance	-11	14
2025-06-06	0.049	0.0526	-26.20	2070000	Balance	20	10
2025-05-30	0.059	0.0527	-9.84	10000	Upward Expansion	51	38
2025-05-23	0.059	0.0525	-11.90	3540000	Upward Expansion	52	52
2025-05-16	0.055	0.0523	-17.85	0	Upward Expansion	52	45
2025-05-09	0.066	0.0523	-0.12	1760000	Balance	64	47
2025-05-02	0.064	0.0524	-2.35	200000	Balance	22	20
2025-04-25	0.062	0.0526	-3.33	3330000	Downward Expansion	-13	7
2025-04-18	0.045	0.0525	-27.92	900000	Downward Expansion	-57	37
2025-04-11	0.045	0.0529	-26.62	0	Downward Expansion	-59	50
2025-04-04	0.047	0.0531	-30.10	0	Downward Expansion	-55	53
2025-03-28	0.047	0.0535	-32.10	30000	Downward Expansion	-55	44
2025-03-21	0.045	0.054	-36.51	160000	Balance	-49	36
2025-03-14	0.045	0.054	-37.94	180000	Balance	-30	25
2025-03-07	0.05	0.0544	-32.14	0	Balance	-12	7
2025-02-28	0.057	0.0546	-18.64	30000	Rotation Up	16	30
2025-02-21	0.054	0.0545	-24.74	100000	Rotation Up	18	32
2025-02-14	0.065	0.0546	-5.99	140000	Rotation Up	26	38
2025-02-07	0.067	0.0548	4.04	1200000	Downward Expansion	33	37
2025-01-31	0.065	0.055	5.93	650000	Downward Expansion	6	8
2025-01-24	0.05	0.0552	-17.67	550000	Downward Expansion	-52	32
2025-01-17	0.047	0.0558	-20.87	30000	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2025-01-10	0.045	0.0566	-22.66	100000	Downward Expansion	-62	38
2025-01-03	0.05	0.0575	-17.79	0	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2024-12-27	0.047	0.0577	-24.45	0	Downward Expansion	-44	23
2024-12-20	0.05	0.0585	-18.98	0	Downward Expansion	-38	18
2024-12-13	0.064	0.0594	0.86	0	Downward Expansion	-21	18
2024-12-06	0.048	0.0595	-24.53	290000	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2024-11-29	0.044	0.0605	-29.95	0	Downward Expansion	-71	78
2024-11-22	0.044	0.061	-30.25	0	Downward Expansion	-72	73
2024-11-15	0.044	0.0612	-31.75	0	Downward Expansion	-71	68
2024-11-08	0.05	0.0612	-28.19	0	Balance	-60	49
2024-11-01	0.055	0.0611	-20.72	70000	Balance	-49	30
2024-10-25	0.051	0.0607	-27.38	0	Balance	-19	12
2024-10-18	0.057	0.0612	-20.44	190000	Balance	7	14
2024-10-11	0.068	0.0613	-7.87	240000	Balance	20	23
2024-10-04	0.07	0.0605	-11.52	0	Balance	19	11
2024-09-27	0.059	0.0597	-18.03	2100000	Balance	-11	11
2024-09-20	0.057	0.0592	-10.98	0	Deceleration	-12	11
2024-09-13	0.05	0.0586	-18.37	10000	Deceleration	-35	33
2024-09-06	0.061	0.0582	-1.37	0	Rotation Down	-17	27
2024-08-30	0.062	0.0575	-3.06	30000	Rotation Down	-21	44
2024-08-23	0.045	0.0569	-28.46	0	Deceleration	-38	56
2024-08-16	0.057	0.0569	-9.21	0	Deceleration	3	24
2024-08-09	0.055	0.0567	-11.22	0	Upward Expansion	-1	18
2024-08-02	0.055	0.0569	-10.82	30000	Upward Expansion	14	13
2024-07-26	0.056	0.057	-10.01	0	Upward Expansion	26	15
2024-07-19	0.072	0.0574	12.88	0	Upward Expansion	56	37
2024-07-12	0.073	0.0577	9.08	20000	Upward Expansion	57	42
2024-07-05	0.069	0.0578	5.89	0	Upward Expansion	44	39
2024-06-28	0.069	0.0577	6.08	0	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-06-21	0.071	0.0581	7.15	0	Rotation Up	55	32
2024-06-14	0.072	0.0582	8.95	10000	Rotation Up	32	26
2024-06-07	0.056	0.0583	-17.34	140000	Rotation Up	26	26
2024-05-31	0.072	0.0586	7.51	310000	Rotation Up	34	58
2024-05-24	0.076	0.0586	10.27	0	Rotation Up	36	60
2024-05-17	0.068	0.0585	-5.94	40000	Rotation Up	26	48
2024-05-10	0.077	0.0587	9.03	0	Rotation Up	38	41
2024-05-03	0.058	0.0582	-16.09	50000	Downward Expansion	-19	14
2024-04-26	0.05	0.0583	-24.94	50000	Downward Expansion	-38	29
2024-04-19	0.046	0.0589	-25.68	20000	Downward Expansion	-42	21
2024-04-12	0.045	0.0599	-30.20	0	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2024-04-05	0.045	0.0607	-30.96	1350000	Downward Expansion	-35	28
2024-03-29	0.065	0.0617	-0.28	20000	Downward Expansion	-1	24
2024-03-22	0.061	0.0621	-6.73	560000	Downward Expansion	-26	21
2024-03-15	0.044	0.0626	-33.99	30000	Downward Expansion	-52	49
2024-03-08	0.045	0.0638	-31.66	560000	Downward Expansion	-64	58
2024-03-01	0.043	0.0648	-36.24	30000	Downward Expansion	-67	82
2024-02-23	0.039	0.0661	-43.07	0	Downward Expansion	-72	88
2024-02-16	0.039	0.0672	-42.45	0	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2024-02-09	0.039	0.0684	-40.83	60000	Downward Expansion	-82	90
2024-02-02	0.044	0.0697	-32.89	100000	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2024-01-26	0.045	0.071	-33.76	220000	Downward Expansion	-81	84
2024-01-19	0.052	0.0721	-21.05	60000	Downward Expansion	-76	75
2024-01-12	0.06	0.0731	-14.86	30000	Balance	-63	54
2024-01-05	0.058	0.0739	-19.39	80000	Balance	-62	37
2023-12-29	0.069	0.0745	-7.36	190000	Balance	-21	9
2023-12-22	0.082	0.0747	14.53	40000	Balance	27	24
2023-12-15	0.075	0.0743	2.12	10000	Balance	-8	9
2023-12-08	0.067	0.075	-6.53	40000	Balance	-26	16
2023-12-01	0.079	0.076	6.86	10000	Balance	-0	7
2023-11-24	0.075	0.0766	-2.93	0	Downward Expansion	-22	12
2023-11-17	0.076	0.0774	-1.41	600000	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2023-11-10	0.063	0.0781	-17.61	230000	Downward Expansion	-55	27
2023-11-03	0.073	0.0794	-7.75	0	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2023-10-27	0.073	0.0803	-6.87	0	Downward Expansion	-54	37
2023-10-20	0.073	0.0813	-6.33	20000	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2023-10-13	0.063	0.0821	-22.62	110000	Downward Expansion	-67	60

Price vs TrendAbove+200.3%

Trend directionRising+40.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+551.4%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+512.9%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+292.3%

Relative strength directionImproving+286.7%

Price momentumPositive+287.5%

Volume balanceDemand-led32.28×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

85 / ±100

-10.8 points since 2026-09-04

Energy

88 /100

-10.7 points since 2026-09-04

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

1826 Directional State ↗ 1826 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance7

Rotation Up88

Upward Expansion97

Deceleration42

Rotation Down8

Downward Expansion19

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-13 to 2026-10-02 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 10%Upward Expansion 18%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 8%Downward Expansion 30%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-11	2026-10-02	New	+30.5%
Rotation Up	2026-08-14	2026-09-04	New	+49.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-03	2026-08-07	Developing	+52.8%
Rotation Down	2026-05-29	2026-06-26	Developing	-11.1%
Deceleration	2026-03-06	2026-05-22	Developing	-43.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-02-27	Developing	-8.7%
Rotation Up	2025-12-26	2026-01-02	New	-5.1%
Balance	2025-12-19	2025-12-19	New	+0.0%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-12-12	Developing	+26.3%
Deceleration	2025-09-19	2025-10-31	Developing	-24.3%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-12	Developing	-2.7%
Balance	2025-06-06	2025-08-01	Developing	+59.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-05-30	New	+7.3%
Balance	2025-05-02	2025-05-09	New	+3.1%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing20

Stage 2 · Advancing100

Stage 3 · Distribution50

Stage 4 · Declining0

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2C · Late advance. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 100/100
Current Relative Strength: 292.30
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +287.5%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +292.1%
Industrials regime cohort: 61th percentile84 in cohort

Test 1826 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume1.47×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume32.28×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution5 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+100.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 1826 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 0.5667rising

Slow Activity HKD 0.2595rising

Trend Reference HKD 0.2064+200.3% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 0.0952+551.4% close margin

Structural low HKD 0.086shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +13.2%

Annualized volatility +120.9%

From structural high -8.1%

From structural low +1219.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	9	-18.2%-21.1% to +1.4%	+11.1%	+11.1%	-14.9%	+44.4%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	-14.5%-46.9% to +74.5%	+20.0%	+20.0%	-30.9%	+20.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	-33.9%-48.4% to -7.3%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-28.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	3	-21.7%-60.5% to +118.9%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-25.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

1826 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

RMI Reversal Map