Weekly structural research · MIL · Consumer Cyclical

GEO Stage Analysis

Geox S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 0.259Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Upward Expansion · Early expansion

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 44/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 80/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +0.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -41.9%EUR 0.446 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	0.259	0.2786	-14.70	2106406	Upward Expansion	-38	44
2026-10-02	0.267	0.2787	-14.02	1731270	Upward Expansion	-5	5
2026-09-25	0.284	0.2791	-11.67	935361	Upward Expansion	51	45
2026-09-18	0.294	0.2796	-8.51	1460685	Balance	63	51
2026-09-11	0.296	0.2796	-10.09	2538328	Balance	67	36
2026-09-04	0.2825	0.2797	-13.92	113377	Balance	32	15
2026-08-28	0.2815	0.2802	-15.55	115786	Balance	34	23
2026-08-21	0.281	0.2806	-16.31	129332	Balance	9	10
2026-08-14	0.287	0.2814	-16.46	184493	Balance	24	16
2026-08-07	0.2895	0.2821	-16.39	156112	Balance	28	17
2026-07-31	0.279	0.2832	-17.43	303686	Balance	-3	8
2026-07-24	0.282	0.2843	-16.42	308829	Balance	12	19
2026-07-17	0.2865	0.2852	-15.91	80117	Balance	13	23
2026-07-10	0.289	0.2859	-17.01	92009	Balance	-2	12
2026-07-03	0.285	0.2866	-19.13	355265	Balance	-8	11
2026-06-26	0.2755	0.2876	-20.25	325475	Balance	-18	12
2026-06-19	0.29	0.2887	-19.11	347655	Balance	-5	9
2026-06-12	0.279	0.2888	-20.65	405810	Downward Expansion	-45	24
2026-06-05	0.274	0.2892	-20.03	242816	Downward Expansion	-49	35
2026-05-29	0.2795	0.2904	-19.19	3010494	Downward Expansion	-48	32
2026-05-22	0.259	0.2923	-24.89	1823543	Downward Expansion	-60	39
2026-05-15	0.2575	0.2948	-25.40	3237493	Downward Expansion	-52	25
2026-05-08	0.283	0.2968	-19.22	1612598	Downward Expansion	-22	22
2026-05-01	0.28	0.2981	-19.22	1885154	Downward Expansion	-25	25
2026-04-24	0.295	0.30	-14.74	1825522	Downward Expansion	-23	22
2026-04-17	0.2975	0.3005	-16.98	4795744	Downward Expansion	-33	24
2026-04-10	0.2765	0.3012	-21.48	1458418	Downward Expansion	-64	56
2026-04-03	0.2645	0.3022	-22.46	1379872	Downward Expansion	-66	84
2026-03-27	0.2605	0.3035	-20.63	2656441	Downward Expansion	-69	87
2026-03-20	0.245	0.3052	-25.24	4940378	Downward Expansion	-92	94
2026-03-13	0.26	0.3075	-24.09	4971552	Downward Expansion	-90	85
2026-03-06	0.28	0.309	-18.79	4060383	Downward Expansion	-80	70
2026-02-27	0.298	0.3094	-20.02	1681687	Downward Expansion	-58	57
2026-02-20	0.296	0.3091	-20.19	1269863	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2026-02-13	0.2985	0.3104	-18.60	2541917	Downward Expansion	-57	59
2026-02-06	0.298	0.3115	-20.43	2972690	Balance	-54	50
2026-01-30	0.292	0.3126	-22.37	3713567	Balance	-60	37
2026-01-23	0.304	0.3146	-19.06	4466359	Balance	-39	15
2026-01-16	0.31	0.3146	-20.22	3671684	Balance	-29	14
2026-01-09	0.32	0.3145	-18.36	6375552	Balance	-18	10
2026-01-02	0.3145	0.3136	-20.36	1885723	Balance	-28	12
2025-12-26	0.308	0.3138	-21.95	1359644	Balance	-33	13
2025-12-19	0.307	0.3146	-23.93	2459468	Balance	-44	18
2025-12-12	0.309	0.3156	-22.71	1913133	Balance	-45	25
2025-12-05	0.316	0.318	-22.31	5844828	Balance	-45	36
2025-11-28	0.31	0.3203	-24.98	4823719	Balance	-49	36
2025-11-21	0.2915	0.3224	-29.41	4203120	Balance	-60	42
2025-11-14	0.2925	0.325	-32.39	10293249	Balance	-47	22
2025-11-07	0.3075	0.3266	-28.36	4695135	Balance	-21	12
2025-10-31	0.3375	0.3276	-23.12	11726093	Balance	24	29
2025-10-24	0.333	0.3285	-23.99	4857332	Balance	2	14
2025-10-17	0.3175	0.3307	-27.37	4658346	Balance	-12	13
2025-10-10	0.3235	0.3329	-27.63	5943892	Balance	-12	14
2025-10-03	0.336	0.3351	-28.10	6150969	Downward Expansion	-14	11
2025-09-26	0.311	0.3376	-33.61	7453997	Downward Expansion	-38	23
2025-09-19	0.3195	0.3413	-32.40	6039301	Downward Expansion	-39	25
2025-09-12	0.3055	0.3449	-36.86	1480491	Downward Expansion	-54	33
2025-09-05	0.303	0.349	-37.03	2917926	Downward Expansion	-57	36
2025-08-29	0.3135	0.3533	-36.85	4401318	Downward Expansion	-54	46
2025-08-22	0.3125	0.358	-39.67	4033641	Downward Expansion	-57	54
2025-08-15	0.305	0.3624	-41.19	6204546	Downward Expansion	-56	51
2025-08-08	0.2905	0.3661	-43.55	5151290	Downward Expansion	-68	48
2025-08-01	0.29	0.3725	-42.21	7796118	Downward Expansion	-72	41
2025-07-25	0.336	0.3791	-35.33	2841436	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2025-07-18	0.3315	0.3859	-36.43	3241073	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2025-07-11	0.331	0.3926	-37.05	5362278	Downward Expansion	-57	40
2025-07-04	0.35	0.4005	-33.60	13135171	Downward Expansion	-62	50
2025-06-27	0.307	0.4072	-42.68	3428842	Downward Expansion	-67	75
2025-06-20	0.305	0.4136	-43.09	10594220	Downward Expansion	-70	78
2025-06-13	0.295	0.42	-46.02	7373389	Downward Expansion	-80	80
2025-06-06	0.318	0.4277	-44.32	4309073	Downward Expansion	-74	57
2025-05-30	0.333	0.4349	-41.77	5644033	Downward Expansion	-69	48
2025-05-23	0.3366	0.4415	-41.03	5490499	Downward Expansion	-63	42
2025-05-16	0.381	0.4488	-36.01	2647473	Downward Expansion	-44	34
2025-05-09	0.3845	0.455	-34.06	2346905	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2025-05-02	0.3725	0.4612	-35.13	2137563	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2025-04-25	0.372	0.468	-34.40	1608422	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2025-04-18	0.338	0.4753	-38.93	853362	Downward Expansion	-81	88
2025-04-11	0.34	0.4839	-35.84	2339704	Downward Expansion	-84	83
2025-04-04	0.362	0.4922	-33.62	2485722	Downward Expansion	-82	81
2025-03-28	0.401	0.4998	-34.89	1981581	Downward Expansion	-66	74
2025-03-21	0.3835	0.5065	-38.87	2326255	Downward Expansion	-79	84
2025-03-14	0.3895	0.5134	-38.01	2093528	Downward Expansion	-80	74
2025-03-07	0.41	0.52	-35.41	2771017	Downward Expansion	-73	67
2025-02-28	0.422	0.5248	-34.41	2018286	Downward Expansion	-69	60
2025-02-21	0.427	0.5293	-34.07	1704847	Downward Expansion	-70	61
2025-02-14	0.43	0.5348	-33.59	1506319	Downward Expansion	-69	67
2025-02-07	0.432	0.5407	-32.42	1197399	Downward Expansion	-72	83
2025-01-31	0.453	0.5468	-28.78	2499066	Downward Expansion	-65	82
2025-01-24	0.445	0.552	-30.33	3779227	Downward Expansion	-74	85
2025-01-17	0.415	0.5562	-35.96	6218284	Downward Expansion	-88	87
2025-01-10	0.483	0.5624	-23.89	2722621	Downward Expansion	-74	61
2025-01-03	0.49	0.5663	-21.42	4436005	Downward Expansion	-71	37
2024-12-27	0.538	0.5709	-14.63	210087	Downward Expansion	-34	24
2024-12-20	0.532	0.5741	-15.32	1416239	Downward Expansion	-42	24
2024-12-13	0.569	0.5773	-13.09	1451675	Downward Expansion	-40	33
2024-12-06	0.552	0.5795	-15.96	1650151	Downward Expansion	-64	55
2024-11-29	0.4975	0.5828	-21.85	893712	Downward Expansion	-80	89
2024-11-22	0.4975	0.5888	-22.75	1107426	Downward Expansion	-86	89
2024-11-15	0.525	0.5954	-20.88	844998	Downward Expansion	-77	81
2024-11-08	0.536	0.5997	-19.04	973293	Downward Expansion	-73	76
2024-11-01	0.531	0.6028	-22.43	1015099	Downward Expansion	-77	72
2024-10-25	0.556	0.6064	-19.67	1068324	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2024-10-18	0.565	0.6102	-19.88	2334247	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2024-10-11	0.57	0.6136	-17.80	1489444	Balance	-56	31
2024-10-04	0.578	0.6173	-15.48	885598	Balance	-51	26
2024-09-27	0.59	0.6213	-17.16	1435346	Balance	-32	17
2024-09-20	0.598	0.6257	-14.36	796951	Downward Expansion	-31	16
2024-09-13	0.588	0.6288	-15.94	449772	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2024-09-06	0.59	0.6322	-15.57	561698	Downward Expansion	-37	19
2024-08-30	0.603	0.6349	-17.07	792761	Downward Expansion	-53	34
2024-08-23	0.59	0.6384	-17.83	961968	Downward Expansion	-59	48
2024-08-16	0.588	0.6429	-17.27	748158	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2024-08-09	0.552	0.6463	-19.95	1176456	Downward Expansion	-76	69
2024-08-02	0.557	0.6518	-20.54	1571284	Downward Expansion	-79	54
2024-07-26	0.592	0.657	-20.75	1175460	Downward Expansion	-64	42
2024-07-19	0.608	0.6616	-20.31	894491	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2024-07-12	0.615	0.6657	-21.02	1067193	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2024-07-05	0.608	0.6688	-21.34	1616109	Downward Expansion	-65	68
2024-06-28	0.573	0.6725	-24.84	1903683	Downward Expansion	-83	82
2024-06-21	0.599	0.6775	-22.67	1353656	Downward Expansion	-75	76
2024-06-14	0.60	0.6812	-21.91	2042790	Downward Expansion	-80	77
2024-06-07	0.629	0.6851	-23.70	991051	Downward Expansion	-65	69
2024-05-31	0.633	0.6872	-23.74	1166165	Downward Expansion	-61	63
2024-05-24	0.63	0.6888	-25.01	1313601	Downward Expansion	-62	47
2024-05-17	0.635	0.6884	-27.28	5876056	Downward Expansion	-61	29
2024-05-10	0.65	0.6905	-24.93	3072981	Downward Expansion	-45	21
2024-05-03	0.678	0.6915	-20.40	1794732	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-04-26	0.694	0.6922	-21.11	2966484	Downward Expansion	-49	39
2024-04-19	0.654	0.6935	-25.91	1741186	Downward Expansion	-60	62
2024-04-12	0.63	0.6963	-29.24	2149984	Downward Expansion	-73	70
2024-04-05	0.639	0.6998	-29.86	2682053	Downward Expansion	-70	63
2024-03-29	0.671	0.7032	-28.98	2484275	Balance	-56	45
2024-03-22	0.666	0.7067	-29.68	1631913	Balance	-59	28
2024-03-15	0.682	0.7095	-28.22	2651416	Balance	-53	22
2024-03-08	0.696	0.7121	-26.62	4137671	Balance	-47	19
2024-03-01	0.724	0.7149	-23.69	6642224	Balance	-34	21
2024-02-23	0.691	0.7173	-27.61	1390685	Balance	-52	42
2024-02-16	0.689	0.722	-26.53	2161597	Balance	-51	37
2024-02-09	0.672	0.727	-27.92	3716070	Balance	-61	37
2024-02-02	0.706	0.7327	-23.99	8975375	Balance	-32	17
2024-01-26	0.727	0.738	-21.58	1605874	Balance	-19	13
2024-01-19	0.69	0.7427	-25.87	1701845	Balance	-38	19
2024-01-12	0.715	0.7486	-24.16	1348943	Balance	-13	9
2024-01-05	0.715	0.7545	-24.51	1560290	Balance	-13	9
2023-12-29	0.729	0.7604	-23.24	574245	Balance	-13	10
2023-12-22	0.73	0.7663	-23.60	1854937	Balance	-17	13
2023-12-15	0.71	0.7726	-26.16	2213718	Downward Expansion	-30	18
2023-12-08	0.718	0.7804	-25.87	2143324	Downward Expansion	-31	20
2023-12-01	0.722	0.79	-24.71	1924446	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2023-11-24	0.712	0.8012	-24.92	1377006	Downward Expansion	-42	28
2023-11-17	0.715	0.8116	-25.19	4220821	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2023-11-10	0.694	0.8223	-25.27	2531676	Downward Expansion	-63	55
2023-11-03	0.679	0.8366	-27.78	2776830	Downward Expansion	-66	62
2023-10-27	0.62	0.85	-31.16	5854128	Downward Expansion	-89	73
2023-10-20	0.696	0.8651	-23.48	3259698	Downward Expansion	-70	66

Price vs TrendBelow-7.1%

Trend directionFalling-1.6%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-41.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-1.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-14.7%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.3%

Price momentumNegative-6.3%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.40×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-38 / ±100

-105.2 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

44 /100

+8.7 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

GEO Directional State ↗ GEO Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance42

Rotation Up20

Upward Expansion26

Deceleration48

Rotation Down61

Downward Expansion44

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 32%Upward Expansion 2%Downward Expansion 66%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Upward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-8.8%
Balance	2026-06-19	2026-09-18	Established	+1.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-02-13	2026-06-12	Established	-6.5%
Balance	2025-10-10	2026-02-06	Established	-7.9%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-18	2025-10-03	Extended	-40.5%
Balance	2024-09-27	2024-10-11	New	-3.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-04-05	2024-09-20	Established	-6.4%
Balance	2023-12-22	2024-03-29	Established	-8.1%
Downward Expansion	2023-07-21	2023-12-15	Established	-15.4%
Rotation Down	2023-06-09	2023-07-14	Developing	-5.3%
Deceleration	2023-04-14	2023-06-02	Developing	-19.2%
Upward Expansion	2023-01-20	2023-04-07	Developing	+25.7%
Balance	2022-12-30	2023-01-13	New	+4.6%
Upward Expansion	2022-12-02	2022-12-23	New	-3.5%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing74

Stage 2 · Advancing3

Stage 3 · Distribution24

Stage 4 · Declining97

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4A · Breakdown. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 96/100
Current Relative Strength: -14.70
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -6.3%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -10.8%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 50th percentile10 in cohort

Test GEO trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.82×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.40×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 4

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore GEO Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 0.2733falling

Slow Activity EUR 0.2808falling

Trend Reference EUR 0.2786-7.1% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 0.446-41.9% close margin

Structural low EUR 0.252shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Sustained fan recompression, a fast-line rollover or repeated closes inside/below the fan move the read toward Deceleration or Rotation Down.

Range context +4.3%

Annualized volatility +28.1%

From structural high -28.0%

From structural low +6.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	7	-2.1%-8.3% to +32.2%	+42.9%	+42.9%	-0.1%	+42.9%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	4	-4.6%-22.3% to +42.4%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.8%	+50.0%	Too little matched history
Extended	2	+0.7%-9.2% to +10.6%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-5.4%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	-18.9%-25.8% to -12.0%	+0.0%	+0.0%	-23.1%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

GEO Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map