Weekly structural research ยท HKG ยท Financial Services

1471 Stage Analysis

Zhongmiao Holdings (Qingdao) Co., Ltd.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close HKD 9.90Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^HSI
Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction
Downward Expansion ยท Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

  • The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
  • Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
  • Activity structure: wide and contracting.
Direction -51โˆ’100 bearish to +100 bullish
Energy 51/100directional strength
Maturity 100/100lifecycle context
Confidence 87/100evidence agreement
Trend gate Downstructural direction
Activity structure Widecontracting separation
Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure
Fair Value context -29.3%HKD 14.00 ยท weakening
Trend Architecture map ยท Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value
Background stage key
  • Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
  • DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
  • Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
  • Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.
View chart values ยท 112 observations
WeekCloseTrendRelative StrengthVolumeRegimeDirectionEnergy
2026-09-259.9016.20-38.141200Downward Expansion-5151
2026-09-188.0516.91-50.356000Downward Expansion-7870
2026-09-119.3017.58-43.0751600Downward Expansion-5662
2026-09-048.3418.31-50.842300Downward Expansion-7169
2026-08-288.1618.68-52.126900Downward Expansion-7784
2026-08-218.8818.96-49.000Downward Expansion-6768
2026-08-148.9019.21-47.360Downward Expansion-6869
2026-08-077.9019.52-54.500Downward Expansion-8394
2026-07-318.0519.83-54.4122600Downward Expansion-8795
2026-07-249.1820.15-46.521700Downward Expansion-7892
2026-07-179.6820.43-42.980Downward Expansion-7390
2026-07-109.4020.66-44.0310700Downward Expansion-7184
2026-07-0310.4020.90-36.220Downward Expansion-6468
2026-06-2610.4021.04-34.59100Downward Expansion-6367
2026-06-199.9021.12-41.3011200Downward Expansion-6663
2026-06-1211.2021.23-35.9816100Rotation Down-6252
2026-06-0511.3221.30-36.04400Rotation Down-3654
2026-05-2910.9721.39-38.78325300Rotation Down-3856
2026-05-2211.6821.50-36.11149000Rotation Down-3064
2026-05-1510.5121.60-43.4951300Rotation Down-3169
2026-05-0810.4321.70-45.26183500Deceleration-3147
2026-05-0111.3821.86-39.2453700Deceleration-3344
2026-04-2411.4921.95-39.47239400Rotation Down-2433
2026-04-1711.2722.02-41.371237800Rotation Down614
2026-04-1031.4522.0964.18118600Upward Expansion5947
2026-04-0344.9521.50144.9022800Upward Expansion7468
2026-03-2739.7420.47123.7945500Upward Expansion6768
2026-03-2039.3219.59123.7763600Upward Expansion6887
2026-03-1344.8718.71159.41102700Upward Expansion8996
2026-03-0648.9817.68189.07239100Upward Expansion9899
2026-02-2731.0616.5384.77124800Upward Expansion8795
2026-02-2028.3515.9873.5130200Upward Expansion8790
2026-02-1331.2015.5093.22383050Upward Expansion9371
2026-02-0619.33โ€”โ€”625400Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-3016.52โ€”โ€”4000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-2316.43โ€”โ€”5500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-1618.20โ€”โ€”156500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0917.21โ€”โ€”116500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2026-01-0217.67โ€”โ€”7500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-2617.68โ€”โ€”33000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1916.52โ€”โ€”42500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-1216.43โ€”โ€”450500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-12-0514.77โ€”โ€”189000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2812.77โ€”โ€”228500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-2113.20โ€”โ€”1000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-1413.19โ€”โ€”8500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-11-0714.26โ€”โ€”4000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-3114.08โ€”โ€”52000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-2414.65โ€”โ€”197500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1713.47โ€”โ€”21000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-1015.24โ€”โ€”36500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-10-0314.31โ€”โ€”27500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-2613.38โ€”โ€”56000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1913.48โ€”โ€”86000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-1213.77โ€”โ€”30500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-09-0514.04โ€”โ€”110500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2913.39โ€”โ€”136000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-2212.98โ€”โ€”29500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-1513.77โ€”โ€”49000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0814.56โ€”โ€”0Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-08-0114.64โ€”โ€”25500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-2513.97โ€”โ€”9000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1814.46โ€”โ€”32000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-1113.91โ€”โ€”140500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-07-0414.28โ€”โ€”26000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2715.74โ€”โ€”97000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-2013.14โ€”โ€”42000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-1312.43โ€”โ€”21500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-06-0613.72โ€”โ€”29000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-3013.65โ€”โ€”213000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-2313.68โ€”โ€”69000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-1615.47โ€”โ€”32000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0914.99โ€”โ€”70000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-05-0214.60โ€”โ€”28000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-2514.60โ€”โ€”28000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1814.77โ€”โ€”24000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-1115.47โ€”โ€”32000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-04-0418.16โ€”โ€”100500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2817.32โ€”โ€”132000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-2117.19โ€”โ€”105000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-1415.57โ€”โ€”111500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-03-0712.56โ€”โ€”27000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2811.58โ€”โ€”98500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-2112.05โ€”โ€”111000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-1412.03โ€”โ€”119500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-02-0712.50โ€”โ€”48500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-3113.20โ€”โ€”34440Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-2412.56โ€”โ€”1464500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-1710.63โ€”โ€”203000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-109.72โ€”โ€”2095500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2025-01-0310.61โ€”โ€”47000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2710.84โ€”โ€”36500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-2010.65โ€”โ€”1911000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-1311.17โ€”โ€”262500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-12-0610.73โ€”โ€”1561000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-299.44โ€”โ€”873500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-229.47โ€”โ€”527500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-156.62โ€”โ€”130000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-086.61โ€”โ€”191500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-11-016.66โ€”โ€”700000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-256.37โ€”โ€”315500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-186.28โ€”โ€”669500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-115.98โ€”โ€”381500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-10-046.12โ€”โ€”1137000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-276.10โ€”โ€”358000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-207.00โ€”โ€”539000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-136.11โ€”โ€”478500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-09-065.62โ€”โ€”485500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-305.95โ€”โ€”1053500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-236.50โ€”โ€”543000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-166.14โ€”โ€”862000Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
2024-08-096.23โ€”โ€”5487500Not yet classifiedโ€”โ€”
Price vs TrendBelow-38.9%
Trend directionFalling-20.7%
Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-29.3%
Fair Value directionMoving away-0.2%
Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-38.1%
Relative strength directionWeakening-3.5%
Price momentumNegative-75.1%
Volume balanceDemand-led1.15ร—
Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-51 / ยฑ100

+26.0 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

51 /100

-32.6 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated
Balance27
Rotation Up28
Upward Expansion26
Deceleration47
Rotation Down44
Downward Expansion67

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind todayโ€™s regime

2024-08-09 to 2026-09-25 ยท 33 classified observations out of 112 shown.

Upward Expansion 27%Deceleration 6%Rotation Down 21%Downward Expansion 46%
Recent Trend Architecture ledger
RegimeRecognizedLast observationTenureMove inside regime
Downward Expansion2026-06-192026-09-25Established+0.0%
Rotation Down2026-05-152026-06-12Developing+6.5%
Deceleration2026-05-012026-05-08New-8.4%
Rotation Down2026-04-172026-04-24New+1.9%
Upward Expansion2026-02-132026-04-10Developing+0.8%
Classic Stage Analysis comparison
Stage 1 ยท Basing60
Stage 2 ยท Advancing0
Stage 3 ยท Distribution10
Stage 4 ยท Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 ยท Stage 4B ยท Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation
82/100
Current Relative Strength
-38.14
Relative Strength direction
Weakening
Price momentum
-75.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark
-73.3%
Financial Services regime cohort
29th percentile91 in cohort
Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry
Relative volume0.04ร—

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.15ร—

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+25.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders
Fast Activity HKD 8.96rising
Slow Activity HKD 10.84falling
Trend Reference HKD 16.20-38.9% close margin
Current Fair Value HKD 14.00-29.3% close margin
Structural low HKD 7.69shock / repair context
What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +10.1%
Annualized volatility +160.8%
From structural high -79.9%
From structural low +28.7%
Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon Samples Median movePositive periodsDirectional follow-through Median excess vs ^HSI Regime survived Read
Near term3-2.2%-8.1% to +4.5%+33.3%+66.7%-4.9%+100.0%Too little matched history
Intermediate1-18.7%-18.7% to -18.7%+0.0%+100.0%-22.1%+100.0%Too little matched history
Extended0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Full cycle0โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”โ€”Too little matched history
Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

Evidence context