Weekly structural research · NASDAQ · Technology

AISP Stage Analysis

Airship AI Holdings Inc

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close USD 1.82Tenure NewBenchmark QQQ

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and expanding.

Direction -67−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 62/100directional strength

Maturity 24/100lifecycle context

Confidence 96/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Wideexpanding separation

Price acceptance -50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -56.8%USD 4.21 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	1.82	2.30	-45.48	1095992	Downward Expansion	-67	62
2026-09-18	1.92	2.34	-42.18	997394	Downward Expansion	-58	40
2026-09-11	1.94	2.35	-42.75	988233	Deceleration	-46	28
2026-09-04	2.05	2.37	-41.41	1062102	Deceleration	-40	26
2026-08-28	2.09	2.39	-41.14	1330155	Downward Expansion	-42	27
2026-08-21	2.15	2.43	-40.34	1471479	Downward Expansion	-55	38
2026-08-14	1.96	2.47	-48.05	1813192	Downward Expansion	-59	53
2026-08-07	2.07	2.55	-45.72	2129343	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2026-07-31	1.75	2.59	-52.72	2298772	Downward Expansion	-75	74
2026-07-24	2.01	2.63	-46.63	1335418	Downward Expansion	-64	66
2026-07-17	2.00	2.66	-49.01	1593373	Balance	-65	50
2026-07-10	2.21	2.69	-47.34	2004824	Balance	-45	31
2026-07-03	2.24	2.72	-46.78	2267610	Balance	-40	19
2026-06-26	2.30	2.77	-46.20	5919227	Rotation Up	-22	14
2026-06-19	2.90	2.82	-36.60	2603543	Rotation Up	19	30
2026-06-12	3.01	2.82	-33.69	3331952	Balance	24	25
2026-06-05	2.76	2.83	-38.69	4969676	Balance	-7	13
2026-05-29	3.02	2.88	-36.96	3661613	Balance	5	11
2026-05-22	2.56	2.94	-45.96	2357739	Downward Expansion	-32	18
2026-05-15	2.40	3.02	-49.68	3065324	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2026-05-08	2.55	3.11	-47.48	2292193	Downward Expansion	-38	21
2026-05-01	2.44	3.20	-47.64	2447687	Downward Expansion	-44	31
2026-04-24	2.52	3.31	-45.76	2629783	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2026-04-17	2.47	3.40	-46.36	2799086	Downward Expansion	-61	50
2026-04-10	2.07	3.52	-52.83	2148258	Downward Expansion	-68	57
2026-04-03	2.25	3.63	-47.13	1674247	Downward Expansion	-63	53
2026-03-27	2.12	3.70	-48.83	2003838	Downward Expansion	-71	55
2026-03-20	2.28	3.78	-47.47	2490677	Downward Expansion	-70	52
2026-03-13	2.63	3.86	-41.28	1457239	Downward Expansion	-60	55
2026-03-06	2.65	3.94	-41.94	2248084	Downward Expansion	-63	73
2026-02-27	2.73	4.01	-41.34	3154568	Downward Expansion	-64	77
2026-02-20	2.47	4.08	-47.57	1999345	Downward Expansion	-71	79
2026-02-13	2.43	4.19	-48.53	2627197	Downward Expansion	-76	66
2026-02-06	2.73	4.30	-43.99	4130931	Downward Expansion	-66	35
2026-01-30	3.11	4.38	-38.43	4592674	Downward Expansion	-46	24
2026-01-23	3.55	4.48	-30.41	5108373	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2026-01-16	4.32	4.54	-15.83	7988932	Downward Expansion	-37	30
2026-01-09	3.10	4.57	-40.51	3673068	Downward Expansion	-61	67
2026-01-02	3.11	4.63	-39.59	5912485	Downward Expansion	-61	64
2025-12-26	2.83	4.69	-46.75	2147840	Downward Expansion	-70	64
2025-12-19	3.00	4.76	-43.65	3951986	Downward Expansion	-68	58
2025-12-12	3.06	4.84	-42.66	3005283	Downward Expansion	-70	70
2025-12-05	3.71	4.88	-31.95	2834815	Downward Expansion	-62	70
2025-11-28	3.68	4.89	-31.91	4747707	Downward Expansion	-63	72
2025-11-21	3.06	4.90	-40.71	4973999	Balance	-80	77
2025-11-14	3.34	4.93	-37.13	5011607	Balance	-50	56
2025-11-07	4.27	4.94	-19.79	4536295	Balance	-33	25
2025-10-31	4.75	4.92	-13.21	3264865	Balance	14	11
2025-10-24	5.09	4.88	-4.44	3921861	Balance	29	13
2025-10-17	5.07	4.85	-1.81	9062614	Balance	43	22
2025-10-10	5.14	4.82	2.84	12648508	Balance	48	38
2025-10-03	5.84	4.77	15.36	4952087	Balance	58	41
2025-09-26	5.28	4.69	6.85	4684057	Balance	32	23
2025-09-19	5.86	4.66	19.10	5836961	Balance	47	22
2025-09-12	5.44	4.63	14.18	6091545	Balance	21	15
2025-09-05	4.30	4.66	-7.31	2083671	Balance	-23	24
2025-08-29	4.47	4.71	-2.39	2450230	Balance	1	13
2025-08-22	4.82	4.71	5.29	3158472	Upward Expansion	24	20
2025-08-15	4.94	4.72	7.24	2821933	Upward Expansion	31	18
2025-08-08	4.79	4.72	4.74	3990931	Upward Expansion	35	19
2025-08-01	4.96	4.71	12.94	4026101	Upward Expansion	53	31
2025-07-25	5.67	4.74	26.68	4885253	Upward Expansion	61	49
2025-07-18	5.78	4.74	30.82	7839696	Upward Expansion	66	58
2025-07-11	5.19	4.70	19.38	7610865	Upward Expansion	33	48
2025-07-04	5.89	4.63	35.55	7015374	Upward Expansion	76	66
2025-06-27	5.53	4.55	30.09	12206749	Upward Expansion	62	55
2025-06-20	5.24	4.47	29.20	4925951	Upward Expansion	39	50
2025-06-13	4.70	4.37	16.10	4505045	Upward Expansion	47	53
2025-06-06	4.94	4.31	21.66	4183107	Upward Expansion	49	55
2025-05-30	5.15	4.24	30.05	5072491	Balance	55	47
2025-05-23	5.12	4.13	32.00	11474262	Balance	42	26
2025-05-16	4.43	4.03	11.90	4416740	Balance	2	6
2025-05-09	3.94	3.95	6.03	1980482	Deceleration	-11	10
2025-05-02	3.92	3.89	4.27	2658087	Deceleration	-12	12
2025-04-25	4.00	3.83	8.45	2154027	Deceleration	-13	18
2025-04-18	3.64	3.78	2.76	1454840	Deceleration	-17	22
2025-04-11	3.72	3.74	0.70	2908929	Deceleration	3	19
2025-04-04	3.57	3.71	1.48	3095170	Balance	1	14
2025-03-28	4.24	3.68	5.25	6002458	Balance	8	16
2025-03-21	4.05	3.65	-3.09	5016245	Balance	10	18
2025-03-14	3.76	3.62	-12.28	2514717	Upward Expansion	18	17
2025-03-07	3.50	3.62	-23.30	6525088	Upward Expansion	23	12
2025-02-28	4.24	3.60	-11.50	5876817	Upward Expansion	41	28
2025-02-21	5.00	3.57	1.84	7982688	Upward Expansion	53	36
2025-02-14	6.36	3.54	28.24	15635959	Upward Expansion	67	44
2025-02-07	5.79	3.46	22.15	9462664	Upward Expansion	64	39
2025-01-31	4.47	3.40	-3.99	6502829	Upward Expansion	52	33
2025-01-24	4.93	3.37	5.57	7140608	Upward Expansion	58	44
2025-01-17	5.07	3.33	11.59	9480593	Upward Expansion	62	66
2025-01-10	4.62	3.30	6.04	12100783	Rotation Up	65	73
2025-01-03	5.89	3.28	33.68	19393123	Rotation Up	57	74
2024-12-27	5.61	3.20	28.26	22977594	Rotation Up	60	70
2024-12-20	4.37	3.15	2.37	31106468	Balance	41	39
2024-12-13	3.17	3.13	-27.75	10654972	Balance	-1	17
2024-12-06	3.41	3.17	-24.14	10887207	Downward Expansion	7	20
2024-11-29	3.12	3.24	-31.69	6310829	Downward Expansion	-15	20
2024-11-22	2.44	3.33	-48.54	5905216	Downward Expansion	-39	22
2024-11-15	2.85	3.50	-41.51	16186667	Downward Expansion	-45	31
2024-11-08	2.75	3.63	-47.76	3229873	Downward Expansion	-62	48
2024-11-01	1.94	3.80	-62.73	2278133	Downward Expansion	-71	61
2024-10-25	1.97	4.06	-64.37	1870304	Downward Expansion	-73	62
2024-10-18	2.08	4.22	-64.00	3152679	Downward Expansion	-72	63
2024-10-11	2.30	4.46	-61.77	3712412	Downward Expansion	-68	74
2024-10-04	2.15	4.74	-65.20	2605553	Downward Expansion	-76	82
2024-09-27	2.46	4.90	-61.59	1814817	Downward Expansion	-72	81
2024-09-20	2.48	4.87	-62.25	2475777	Downward Expansion	-73	78
2024-09-13	2.72	4.83	-59.47	1413464	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-09-06	2.76	4.80	-57.85	1494013	Downward Expansion	-67	51
2024-08-30	3.11	4.75	-56.48	5337711	Downward Expansion	-63	54
2024-08-23	3.39	4.70	-54.22	5682951	Downward Expansion	-58	55
2024-08-16	3.57	4.64	-52.62	15643937	Downward Expansion	-57	55
2024-08-09	3.04	4.57	-58.65	1218402	Deceleration	-41	46
2024-08-02	3.38	4.53	-54.99	3190652	Deceleration	-36	28
2024-07-26	3.87	4.48	-51.25	1727545	Deceleration	-18	20
2024-07-19	4.19	4.40	-49.70	1917204	Deceleration	-19	22
2024-07-12	3.79	4.41	-57.23	2844022	Deceleration	-21	25
2024-07-05	3.78	4.55	-58.38	1897891	Rotation Down	-22	33
2024-06-28	3.59	4.79	-59.98	5020543	Rotation Down	-24	37
2024-06-21	4.34	5.03	-52.71	6908944	Rotation Down	-20	38
2024-06-14	3.77	5.24	-59.73	103404677	Rotation Down	-31	43
2024-06-07	3.47	5.47	-62.48	1430676	Deceleration	-33	37
2024-05-31	4.17	5.71	-54.75	1252530	Deceleration	-26	24
2024-05-24	3.98	5.92	-58.35	1532082	Deceleration	-36	27
2024-05-17	4.36	6.15	-54.65	2940122	Deceleration	-14	15
2024-05-10	5.29	6.36	-44.91	2383428	Deceleration	-1	10
2024-05-03	6.04	6.54	-37.30	1895642	Rotation Up	9	9
2024-04-26	7.43	6.70	-23.24	2575214	Rotation Up	8	17
2024-04-19	6.67	6.81	-29.23	3250988	Rotation Up	19	25
2024-04-12	7.96	6.95	-21.17	4281753	Rotation Up	26	52
2024-04-05	9.79	7.04	-4.65	12658233	Rotation Up	37	56
2024-03-29	6.59	7.07	-36.90	4113536	Rotation Up	24	47
2024-03-22	9.40	7.21	-11.70	18813656	Rotation Up	41	52
2024-03-15	10.75	7.26	3.01	21767689	Rotation Up	11	31
2024-03-08	6.80	7.25	-36.02	290591695	Downward Expansion	-26	24
2024-03-01	1.49	7.38	-86.41	586546	Downward Expansion	-67	63
2024-02-23	1.49	7.69	-86.46	422868	Downward Expansion	-68	65
2024-02-16	1.71	8.00	-84.61	1496076	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2024-02-09	1.41	8.30	-87.77	567461	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-02-02	1.50	8.61	-87.04	326936	Downward Expansion	-71	69
2024-01-26	1.52	8.91	-86.98	881869	Downward Expansion	-72	89
2024-01-19	1.50	9.22	-87.35	761482	Downward Expansion	-76	92
2024-01-12	1.73	9.55	-85.32	1920973	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2024-01-05	1.89	9.86	-83.79	21927156	Downward Expansion	-91	97
2023-12-29	1.70	10.18	-86.17	3548545	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2023-12-22	4.25	10.48	-66.05	1797419	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2023-12-15	8.01	10.69	-36.51	244813	Downward Expansion	-87	78
2023-12-08	11.09	10.79	-10.10	31442	Balance	24	18
2023-12-01	10.70	10.77	-13.17	1730	Balance	-45	22
2023-11-24	10.70	10.75	-13.45	67	Balance	-46	34
2023-11-17	10.70	10.73	-13.07	10069	Balance	-19	31
2023-11-10	10.62	10.71	-12.38	1234	Balance	-26	32
2023-11-03	10.64	10.69	-10.04	25	Balance	-6	12
2023-10-27	10.64	10.69	-4.72	42996	Balance	4	7
2023-10-20	10.81	10.67	-6.00	1633	Balance	42	19
2023-10-13	10.82	10.65	-8.98	977	Balance	39	22
2023-10-06	10.62	10.63	-10.98	2635	Balance	14	12

Price vs TrendBelow-21.0%

Trend directionFalling-13.3%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-56.8%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-45.5%

Relative strength directionImproving+0.7%

Price momentumNegative-14.2%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.32×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-67 / ±100

-25.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

62 /100

+35.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

AISP Directional State ↗ AISP Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion14

Deceleration39

Rotation Down53

Downward Expansion85

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 24%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 14%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 41%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-18	2026-09-25	New	-5.2%
Deceleration	2026-09-04	2026-09-11	New	-5.4%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-24	2026-08-28	Developing	+4.0%
Balance	2026-07-03	2026-07-17	New	-10.7%
Rotation Up	2026-06-19	2026-06-26	New	-20.7%
Balance	2026-05-29	2026-06-12	New	-0.3%
Downward Expansion	2025-11-28	2026-05-22	Established	-30.4%
Balance	2025-08-29	2025-11-21	Established	-31.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-08-22	Developing	-2.4%
Balance	2025-05-16	2025-05-30	New	+16.3%
Deceleration	2025-04-11	2025-05-09	Developing	+5.9%
Balance	2025-03-21	2025-04-04	New	-11.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-01-17	2025-03-14	Developing	-25.8%
Rotation Up	2024-12-27	2025-01-10	New	-17.6%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing61

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus QQQ

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 99/100
Current Relative Strength: -45.48
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -14.2%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -46.5%
Technology regime cohort: 81th percentile160 in cohort

Test AISP trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.47×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.32×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 0

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore AISP Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 1.92falling

Slow Activity USD 2.20falling

Trend Reference USD 2.30-21.0% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 4.21-56.8% close margin

Structural low USD 1.68shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +13.5%

Annualized volatility +67.4%

From structural high -74.7%

From structural low +8.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs QQQ	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	+2.1%-78.4% to +382.3%	+50.0%	+50.0%	-3.3%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	5	+10.6%-25.8% to +123.2%	+60.0%	+40.0%	-11.0%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-17.9%-52.9% to +78.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-37.3%	+0.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-60.4%-60.4% to -60.4%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-92.2%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

AISP Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map