Weekly structural research · MIL · Technology

OLI Stage Analysis

Olidata S.p.A.

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close EUR 1.45Tenure NewBenchmark FTSEMIB.MI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Early contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -70−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 69/100directional strength

Maturity 12/100lifecycle context

Confidence 84/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -57.2%EUR 3.40 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	1.45	1.57	-23.61	68446	Downward Expansion	-70	69
2026-10-02	1.49	1.58	-24.05	70463	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2026-09-25	1.48	1.59	-27.66	99011	Downward Expansion	-64	64
2026-09-18	1.49	1.61	-27.88	128104	Balance	-55	54
2026-09-11	1.49	1.62	-30.64	81087	Balance	-56	44
2026-09-04	1.57	1.63	-27.36	5152	Balance	-40	25
2026-08-28	1.58	1.65	-28.97	7622	Balance	-38	19
2026-08-21	1.66	1.66	-26.81	62103	Balance	-19	12
2026-08-14	1.57	1.68	-32.95	21094	Balance	-38	21
2026-08-07	1.60	1.70	-32.82	30235	Balance	-31	16
2026-07-31	1.63	1.72	-30.66	10396	Balance	-25	12
2026-07-24	1.62	1.74	-31.87	7712	Balance	-22	13
2026-07-17	1.65	1.76	-31.78	5353	Balance	-11	9
2026-07-10	1.70	1.78	-31.52	10423	Balance	-7	12
2026-07-03	1.79	1.79	-28.87	96442	Balance	-0	11
2026-06-26	1.55	1.80	-37.05	56220	Balance	-20	22
2026-06-19	1.72	1.82	-32.81	25167	Downward Expansion	-13	16
2026-06-12	1.65	1.84	-34.65	62304	Downward Expansion	-36	19
2026-06-05	1.90	1.86	-22.82	609199	Downward Expansion	-24	23
2026-05-29	1.37	1.87	-44.65	173474	Downward Expansion	-72	68
2026-05-22	1.39	1.90	-44.08	260649	Downward Expansion	-73	56
2026-05-15	1.45	1.93	-41.53	92630	Downward Expansion	-69	50
2026-05-08	1.54	1.96	-38.72	82784	Deceleration	-51	40
2026-05-01	1.59	2.00	-36.27	164112	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2026-04-24	1.62	2.04	-34.68	64974	Downward Expansion	-58	48
2026-04-17	1.60	2.07	-37.57	133968	Downward Expansion	-63	59
2026-04-10	1.62	2.11	-35.79	169480	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2026-04-03	1.54	2.15	-36.62	458766	Downward Expansion	-66	78
2026-03-27	1.39	2.19	-40.34	316753	Downward Expansion	-91	90
2026-03-20	1.51	2.24	-34.78	146322	Downward Expansion	-92	83
2026-03-13	1.69	2.28	-30.30	123661	Downward Expansion	-86	90
2026-03-06	1.85	2.32	-23.58	165411	Downward Expansion	-71	85
2026-02-27	1.90	2.35	-26.68	139913	Downward Expansion	-68	87
2026-02-20	1.80	2.38	-29.95	145443	Downward Expansion	-90	95
2026-02-13	1.90	2.42	-25.07	203903	Downward Expansion	-84	84
2026-02-06	1.99	2.44	-22.56	205665	Downward Expansion	-79	73
2026-01-30	2.06	2.45	-19.30	85736	Downward Expansion	-72	54
2026-01-23	2.18	2.45	-13.80	77117	Downward Expansion	-46	37
2026-01-16	2.18	2.45	-16.15	63715	Downward Expansion	-45	36
2026-01-09	2.19	2.45	-16.52	95662	Downward Expansion	-42	33
2026-01-02	2.21	2.45	-16.25	31691	Downward Expansion	-44	35
2025-12-26	2.20	2.44	-16.48	36286	Downward Expansion	-47	39
2025-12-19	2.23	2.44	-16.70	111292	Rotation Down	-58	46
2025-12-12	2.17	2.44	-17.85	221278	Rotation Down	-35	48
2025-12-05	2.16	2.44	-19.11	80418	Rotation Down	-37	56
2025-11-28	2.13	2.44	-21.46	75332	Rotation Down	-43	68
2025-11-21	2.07	2.44	-23.67	239918	Rotation Down	-44	68
2025-11-14	2.28	2.44	-19.56	129626	Rotation Down	-28	64
2025-11-07	2.18	2.43	-22.05	105504	Rotation Down	-43	69
2025-10-31	2.31	2.42	-18.59	125846	Deceleration	-34	52
2025-10-24	2.32	2.41	-17.93	211190	Deceleration	-12	25
2025-10-17	2.42	2.41	-13.90	264414	Deceleration	13	17
2025-10-10	2.65	2.40	-7.63	337736	Deceleration	36	19
2025-10-03	2.72	2.38	-10.47	218838	Deceleration	41	26
2025-09-26	2.63	2.35	-14.53	208333	Upward Expansion	44	31
2025-09-19	2.82	2.34	-10.14	204008	Upward Expansion	59	45
2025-09-12	2.82	2.32	-12.48	410354	Upward Expansion	61	47
2025-09-05	2.75	2.29	-15.05	128095	Upward Expansion	60	50
2025-08-29	2.88	2.26	-14.55	518380	Upward Expansion	70	59
2025-08-22	2.78	2.24	-21.40	354983	Upward Expansion	65	77
2025-08-15	2.80	2.23	-21.17	146430	Upward Expansion	66	85
2025-08-08	2.79	2.23	-21.09	387576	Upward Expansion	69	86
2025-08-01	2.76	2.24	-20.13	557976	Rotation Up	73	84
2025-07-25	3.03	2.26	-15.84	3640472	Rotation Up	62	75
2025-07-18	2.59	2.26	-28.67	2479996	Rotation Up	49	43
2025-07-11	2.13	2.28	-42.22	75209	Balance	-28	14
2025-07-04	2.15	2.33	-42.39	61411	Balance	-28	14
2025-06-27	2.15	2.37	-43.94	152771	Balance	-29	16
2025-06-20	2.13	2.41	-45.07	684821	Balance	-29	17
2025-06-13	2.14	2.44	-46.42	130025	Balance	-21	14
2025-06-06	2.13	2.47	-49.31	47916	Balance	-20	12
2025-05-30	2.18	2.50	-48.59	116559	Balance	-19	14
2025-05-23	2.12	2.53	-50.37	300930	Downward Expansion	-22	15
2025-05-16	2.24	2.56	-50.15	569645	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2025-05-09	2.18	2.62	-50.94	338840	Downward Expansion	-41	27
2025-05-02	2.18	2.73	-50.68	378916	Downward Expansion	-45	35
2025-04-25	2.04	2.84	-53.45	53352	Downward Expansion	-58	45
2025-04-18	1.96	2.97	-54.59	208332	Downward Expansion	-60	45
2025-04-11	1.87	3.08	-55.12	213248	Downward Expansion	-67	48
2025-04-04	1.97	3.21	-54.54	418954	Downward Expansion	-65	49
2025-03-28	2.20	3.33	-55.42	878889	Downward Expansion	-59	51
2025-03-21	2.19	3.44	-56.76	937927	Downward Expansion	-62	56
2025-03-14	1.97	3.54	-61.46	322773	Downward Expansion	-69	63
2025-03-07	1.85	3.64	-64.35	667301	Downward Expansion	-78	68
2025-02-28	2.24	3.74	-57.69	919550	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-02-21	2.37	3.84	-55.91	1101629	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2025-02-14	1.95	3.94	-63.98	284776	Downward Expansion	-81	93
2025-02-07	1.95	4.06	-63.82	574115	Downward Expansion	-91	96
2025-01-31	2.25	4.19	-58.39	608968	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2025-01-24	2.36	4.31	-56.84	609256	Downward Expansion	-92	93
2025-01-17	2.93	4.44	-47.63	267472	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2025-01-10	3.10	4.53	-43.37	106280	Downward Expansion	-65	53
2025-01-03	3.13	4.62	-41.80	78085	Downward Expansion	-64	52
2024-12-27	3.17	4.71	-41.73	33623	Downward Expansion	-54	48
2024-12-20	3.16	4.81	-41.94	139464	Downward Expansion	-54	47
2024-12-13	3.50	4.91	-38.20	459700	Downward Expansion	-51	49
2024-12-06	3.44	4.99	-39.70	380600	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2024-11-29	3.39	5.09	-38.61	612993	Downward Expansion	-67	76
2024-11-22	2.98	5.18	-46.58	95397	Downward Expansion	-71	88
2024-11-15	3.03	5.29	-47.48	195515	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2024-11-08	3.10	5.39	-46.32	377870	Downward Expansion	-78	92
2024-11-01	3.09	5.49	-48.50	512036	Downward Expansion	-84	91
2024-10-25	3.05	5.60	-50.00	816147	Downward Expansion	-89	85
2024-10-18	4.10	5.71	-34.56	778007	Balance	-77	53
2024-10-11	5.39	5.77	-12.56	46119	Balance	-25	12
2024-10-04	5.50	5.80	-9.76	78851	Balance	-27	15
2024-09-27	5.79	5.82	-9.27	400894	Downward Expansion	-20	16
2024-09-20	5.34	5.84	-14.74	110725	Downward Expansion	-35	24
2024-09-13	5.68	5.88	-10.02	40437	Downward Expansion	-35	21
2024-09-06	5.62	5.91	-10.80	182916	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2024-08-30	5.71	5.92	-12.21	367934	Downward Expansion	-61	46
2024-08-23	4.98	5.95	-21.42	38780	Downward Expansion	-73	85
2024-08-16	4.96	6.02	-19.87	13315	Downward Expansion	-78	86
2024-08-09	5.03	6.02	-15.17	84531	Downward Expansion	-79	83
2024-08-02	5.22	6.03	-12.16	35692	Downward Expansion	-76	76
2024-07-26	5.36	6.04	-14.14	101210	Downward Expansion	-74	66
2024-07-19	5.55	6.04	-11.66	70837	Rotation Down	-68	47
2024-07-12	5.80	6.03	-8.11	80675	Rotation Down	-29	24
2024-07-05	5.98	6.02	-3.07	38012	Rotation Down	-24	29
2024-06-28	5.99	5.99	0.10	83860	Rotation Down	-26	32
2024-06-21	5.78	5.97	-3.21	49775	Balance	-22	32
2024-06-14	5.70	5.96	-2.18	175030	Balance	-26	28
2024-06-07	6.04	5.96	-1.78	45756	Balance	9	9
2024-05-31	6.04	5.96	-0.82	55956	Balance	12	8
2024-05-24	6.02	5.96	-0.62	109833	Balance	13	8
2024-05-17	6.18	5.96	-0.10	153869	Balance	21	12
2024-05-10	6.18	5.94	2.61	202676	Balance	23	11
2024-05-03	6.15	5.97	5.84	60222	Balance	33	14
2024-04-26	6.28	6.03	6.88	119762	Balance	46	20
2024-04-19	6.13	6.06	6.19	158717	Balance	6	6
2024-04-12	6.10	6.14	6.92	162254	Balance	7	6
2024-04-05	6.30	6.16	10.30	242151	Balance	10	7
2024-03-29	6.40	6.10	10.31	267357	Balance	13	8
2024-03-22	6.05	6.00	7.11	114979	Upward Expansion	36	17
2024-03-15	6.05	5.89	9.91	252419	Upward Expansion	40	23
2024-03-08	6.15	5.79	15.16	130991	Upward Expansion	54	35
2024-03-01	6.45	5.69	24.44	107126	Upward Expansion	50	44
2024-02-23	6.55	5.58	29.53	208614	Upward Expansion	51	54
2024-02-16	6.45	5.47	33.86	375670	Upward Expansion	57	50
2024-02-09	6.15	5.35	32.51	290500	Deceleration	50	43
2024-02-02	6.35	5.26	41.38	515838	Deceleration	55	39
2024-01-26	7.10	5.16	63.10	1343122	Deceleration	58	33
2024-01-19	5.15	5.04	21.57	88224	Deceleration	1	13
2024-01-12	5.20	4.98	23.91	85885	Deceleration	3	11
2024-01-05	5.45	4.92	32.09	138248	Deceleration	10	13
2023-12-29	5.45	4.86	34.77	46671	Deceleration	9	15
2023-12-22	5.40	4.79	35.82	241917	Deceleration	9	14
2023-12-15	5.25	4.72	34.24	251703	Deceleration	8	14
2023-12-08	5.10	4.66	32.46	84777	Deceleration	11	13
2023-12-01	5.45	4.61	46.16	371417	Deceleration	29	17
2023-11-24	5.55	4.53	54.25	425021	Deceleration	32	18
2023-11-17	5.75	4.45	62.75	111145	Deceleration	35	21
2023-11-10	5.95	4.37	78.13	224878	Deceleration	37	25
2023-11-03	6.10	4.29	86.06	137853	Upward Expansion	43	29
2023-10-27	6.05	4.21	98.90	615734	Upward Expansion	50	42
2023-10-20	5.60	4.05	88.71	315981	Upward Expansion	64	59

Price vs TrendBelow-7.7%

Trend directionFalling-8.4%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-57.2%

Fair Value directionMoving away-3.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-23.6%

Relative strength directionImproving+7.9%

Price momentumNegative-10.1%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.83×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-70 / ±100

-13.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

69 /100

+25.6 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

OLI Directional State ↗ OLI Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance21

Rotation Up11

Upward Expansion15

Deceleration38

Rotation Down76

Downward Expansion93

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 23%Rotation Up 2%Upward Expansion 11%Deceleration 13%Rotation Down 7%Downward Expansion 44%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-09-25	2026-10-09	New	-2.0%
Balance	2026-06-26	2026-09-18	Established	-3.7%
Downward Expansion	2026-05-15	2026-06-19	Developing	+18.4%
Deceleration	2026-05-08	2026-05-08	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-05-01	Established	-27.8%
Rotation Down	2025-11-07	2025-12-19	Developing	+2.5%
Deceleration	2025-10-03	2025-10-31	Developing	-14.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-08	2025-09-26	Developing	-5.8%
Rotation Up	2025-07-18	2025-08-01	New	+6.7%
Balance	2025-05-30	2025-07-11	Developing	-2.4%
Downward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-05-23	Extended	-30.5%
Balance	2024-10-04	2024-10-18	New	-25.5%
Downward Expansion	2024-07-26	2024-09-27	Developing	+8.0%
Rotation Down	2024-06-28	2024-07-19	New	-7.3%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing64

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution10

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus FTSEMIB.MI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 89/100
Current Relative Strength: -23.61
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -10.1%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -14.6%
Technology regime cohort: 88th percentile8 in cohort

Test OLI trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.84×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.83×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore OLI Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity EUR 1.48falling

Slow Activity EUR 1.57falling

Trend Reference EUR 1.57-7.7% close margin

Current Fair Value EUR 3.40-57.2% close margin

Structural low EUR 1.31shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.1%

Annualized volatility +60.1%

From structural high -43.9%

From structural low +16.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs FTSEMIB.MI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	18	-2.2%-33.4% to +16.4%	+38.9%	+61.1%	-3.3%	+83.3%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-18.0%-43.1% to +48.3%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-21.6%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	3	-29.4%-56.0% to +28.5%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-44.4%	+33.3%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	1	-43.4%-43.4% to -43.4%	+0.0%	+100.0%	-63.9%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

OLI Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map