Weekly structural research · NYSE · Financial Services

BBD Stage Analysis

Banco Bradesco SA ADR

Week ending 9 Oct 2026Close USD 4.30Tenure NewBenchmark SPY

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Rotation Up · Structural repair

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair.

The Trend gate is mixed within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.
A price shock beyond the complete Activity structure bypassed the ordinary persistence gate.

Direction 48−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 58/100directional strength

Maturity 19/100lifecycle context

Confidence 85/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Mixedstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance +50.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +57.9%USD 2.72 · improving

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-10-09	4.30	3.55	10.78	410544372	Rotation Up	48	58
2026-10-02	3.65	3.52	-4.59	181100976	Balance	22	21
2026-09-25	3.41	3.52	-11.00	121310260	Balance	-24	19
2026-09-18	3.43	3.54	-9.46	125621612	Downward Expansion	-28	18
2026-09-11	3.60	3.56	-5.15	125441031	Downward Expansion	-24	17
2026-09-04	3.47	3.57	-9.21	164741627	Downward Expansion	-55	59
2026-08-28	3.25	3.59	-14.94	128513988	Downward Expansion	-57	69
2026-08-21	3.11	3.61	-18.33	137305116	Downward Expansion	-73	71
2026-08-14	3.14	3.64	-18.77	165326091	Balance	-69	45
2026-08-07	3.37	3.65	-12.80	152632159	Balance	-40	20
2026-07-31	3.60	3.65	-3.40	126309875	Balance	-18	21
2026-07-24	3.60	3.64	-2.31	153633779	Downward Expansion	-27	21
2026-07-17	3.54	3.62	-4.24	170585677	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2026-07-10	3.65	3.61	-2.60	161250389	Downward Expansion	-35	25
2026-07-03	3.38	3.60	-8.43	172741281	Rotation Down	-57	47
2026-06-26	3.39	3.59	-6.14	184082151	Rotation Down	-32	49
2026-06-19	3.29	3.60	-11.00	137178431	Rotation Down	-40	56
2026-06-12	3.43	3.60	-6.55	133779997	Rotation Down	-31	53
2026-06-05	3.29	3.60	-9.79	106671759	Balance	-34	47
2026-05-29	3.49	3.61	-6.86	114565747	Balance	-20	26
2026-05-22	3.47	3.60	-6.02	143054457	Balance	-1	14
2026-05-15	3.47	3.59	-5.14	184291678	Upward Expansion	13	8
2026-05-08	3.75	3.58	2.88	145471413	Upward Expansion	50	47
2026-05-01	3.83	3.55	7.98	107812672	Upward Expansion	53	55
2026-04-24	3.93	3.53	12.44	155337152	Upward Expansion	51	51
2026-04-17	4.20	3.50	21.50	226320346	Deceleration	65	42
2026-04-10	4.02	3.46	22.53	203099601	Deceleration	45	21
2026-04-03	3.60	3.43	14.48	132550863	Deceleration	16	23
2026-03-27	3.43	3.41	13.57	162416581	Deceleration	14	25
2026-03-20	3.35	3.39	9.23	185662345	Deceleration	14	19
2026-03-13	3.47	3.37	11.75	287284381	Upward Expansion	36	26
2026-03-06	3.62	3.35	15.58	280886195	Upward Expansion	61	47
2026-02-27	4.02	3.32	26.89	180190435	Upward Expansion	68	64
2026-02-20	4.11	3.27	30.91	133328607	Upward Expansion	78	83
2026-02-13	3.91	3.22	27.25	214251781	Upward Expansion	69	82
2026-02-06	3.91	3.18	26.97	262418773	Upward Expansion	73	83
2026-01-30	3.97	3.14	30.21	280990079	Upward Expansion	84	84
2026-01-23	3.87	3.11	28.93	192227440	Upward Expansion	83	71
2026-01-16	3.46	3.07	16.22	157321500	Deceleration	61	36
2026-01-09	3.37	3.05	13.89	145755484	Deceleration	43	22
2026-01-02	3.29	3.03	13.90	68773986	Deceleration	34	19
2025-12-26	3.21	3.01	11.07	77801893	Deceleration	34	22
2025-12-19	3.21	2.99	13.61	159905556	Upward Expansion	41	28
2025-12-12	3.31	2.97	18.14	183248731	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-12-05	3.18	2.94	13.71	250307825	Upward Expansion	62	52
2025-11-28	3.55	2.92	28.41	97980076	Upward Expansion	79	84
2025-11-21	3.34	2.87	26.48	182491095	Upward Expansion	66	78
2025-11-14	3.53	2.83	32.16	181055759	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-11-07	3.39	2.79	28.35	150134493	Upward Expansion	82	79
2025-10-31	3.24	2.74	21.38	240974787	Upward Expansion	73	56
2025-10-24	3.21	2.70	21.78	232252253	Upward Expansion	75	55
2025-10-17	3.16	2.66	22.78	415185702	Upward Expansion	75	55
2025-10-10	2.93	2.62	16.26	332592038	Upward Expansion	63	54
2025-10-03	3.04	2.59	17.83	294804127	Upward Expansion	65	61
2025-09-26	3.10	2.55	22.00	312216742	Upward Expansion	76	82
2025-09-19	3.13	2.50	23.11	249012633	Upward Expansion	86	88
2025-09-12	2.94	2.46	17.55	194120461	Upward Expansion	71	76
2025-09-05	2.99	2.43	21.39	132149761	Upward Expansion	80	69
2025-08-29	2.92	2.39	19.04	136136963	Upward Expansion	79	63
2025-08-22	2.80	2.36	14.16	167546142	Deceleration	67	50
2025-08-15	2.78	2.32	13.66	114909248	Deceleration	56	41
2025-08-08	2.72	2.29	12.46	196078432	Deceleration	46	33
2025-08-01	2.64	2.25	11.49	208329991	Deceleration	43	32
2025-07-25	2.63	2.22	8.76	131251269	Upward Expansion	50	47
2025-07-18	2.64	2.19	11.14	155150324	Upward Expansion	64	59
2025-07-11	2.72	2.16	15.81	175936437	Upward Expansion	67	66
2025-07-04	2.91	2.13	23.93	186979706	Upward Expansion	83	77
2025-06-27	2.79	2.09	21.56	160395900	Upward Expansion	74	73
2025-06-20	2.79	2.06	26.41	149964741	Upward Expansion	79	86
2025-06-13	2.74	2.03	24.81	209661553	Upward Expansion	81	90
2025-06-06	2.66	2.01	21.18	263748275	Upward Expansion	77	91
2025-05-30	2.65	1.99	23.00	149102258	Upward Expansion	83	93
2025-05-23	2.58	1.97	22.08	240718633	Upward Expansion	83	93
2025-05-16	2.52	1.96	16.73	200491204	Upward Expansion	86	93
2025-05-09	2.50	1.96	22.05	344474901	Rotation Up	90	87
2025-05-02	2.20	1.95	7.24	160429035	Rotation Up	48	61
2025-04-25	2.19	1.95	9.13	126739236	Rotation Up	49	50
2025-04-18	2.04	1.96	6.20	116322849	Rotation Up	34	42
2025-04-11	2.01	1.97	2.97	255499675	Rotation Up	21	40
2025-04-04	2.01	1.98	8.37	217674848	Balance	22	40
2025-03-28	2.05	1.99	-0.13	177905916	Balance	11	27
2025-03-21	2.01	2.00	-3.78	169775442	Balance	6	10
2025-03-14	1.94	2.02	-7.20	241892907	Balance	-10	9
2025-03-07	1.87	2.03	-13.22	213443630	Balance	-20	13
2025-02-28	1.75	2.05	-21.42	217717560	Balance	-32	22
2025-02-21	1.88	2.05	-17.26	165978252	Downward Expansion	-23	26
2025-02-14	1.95	2.05	-16.08	246798134	Downward Expansion	-26	27
2025-02-07	1.91	2.05	-17.36	268893005	Downward Expansion	-37	27
2025-01-31	1.90	2.06	-18.57	247915642	Downward Expansion	-45	37
2025-01-24	1.73	2.06	-27.03	203323915	Downward Expansion	-61	55
2025-01-17	1.76	2.06	-25.54	283766241	Downward Expansion	-65	62
2025-01-10	1.69	2.07	-27.38	212961242	Downward Expansion	-67	85
2025-01-03	1.66	2.08	-30.96	130150974	Downward Expansion	-74	89
2024-12-27	1.66	2.09	-32.34	59217507	Downward Expansion	-79	91
2024-12-20	1.69	2.10	-31.88	224610129	Rotation Down	-83	91
2024-12-13	1.77	2.12	-31.04	241135172	Rotation Down	-55	77
2024-12-06	1.79	2.13	-31.40	149225727	Rotation Down	-50	72
2024-11-29	1.86	2.14	-29.15	173525639	Rotation Down	-48	68
2024-11-22	2.08	2.16	-20.86	132220341	Rotation Down	-26	52
2024-11-15	2.08	2.16	-20.35	124039348	Deceleration	-26	36
2024-11-08	2.04	2.17	-23.99	152713749	Deceleration	-30	31
2024-11-01	2.09	2.17	-19.21	128436044	Deceleration	9	14
2024-10-25	2.25	2.18	-15.04	149589986	Deceleration	36	20
2024-10-18	2.32	2.19	-13.86	156162657	Deceleration	40	26
2024-10-11	2.27	2.19	-15.24	153250394	Rotation Up	41	26
2024-10-04	2.38	2.19	-10.84	162615394	Rotation Up	51	36
2024-09-27	2.33	2.19	-12.90	256556127	Rotation Up	31	33
2024-09-20	2.26	2.18	-15.42	199931461	Rotation Up	35	42
2024-09-13	2.41	2.19	-9.18	118716128	Rotation Up	40	73
2024-09-06	2.41	2.18	-5.67	87194386	Rotation Up	32	72
2024-08-30	2.39	2.17	-10.89	108071011	Rotation Up	32	55
2024-08-23	2.47	2.18	-7.84	118968098	Rotation Up	47	53
2024-08-16	2.36	2.18	-11.16	120908859	Rotation Up	18	28
2024-08-09	2.30	2.19	-10.42	195487304	Rotation Up	-11	13
2024-08-02	1.89	2.21	-26.59	114350971	Downward Expansion	-70	58
2024-07-26	1.90	2.24	-28.40	103115778	Downward Expansion	-71	58
2024-07-19	1.92	2.27	-29.07	78441691	Downward Expansion	-72	60
2024-07-12	2.01	2.30	-28.15	143434418	Downward Expansion	-64	59
2024-07-05	1.97	2.33	-29.36	107319604	Downward Expansion	-66	65
2024-06-28	1.92	2.35	-30.67	73478752	Downward Expansion	-78	79
2024-06-21	1.96	2.38	-29.87	62913441	Downward Expansion	-76	84
2024-06-14	1.98	2.40	-29.40	86862563	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2024-06-07	2.03	2.41	-27.14	80373239	Downward Expansion	-74	79
2024-05-31	2.03	2.43	-26.73	59102671	Downward Expansion	-79	85
2024-05-24	2.08	2.44	-26.10	73535547	Downward Expansion	-79	79
2024-05-17	2.18	2.45	-22.88	67304110	Downward Expansion	-65	70
2024-05-10	2.13	2.45	-23.91	132231103	Downward Expansion	-76	77
2024-05-03	2.25	2.45	-18.85	112177845	Downward Expansion	-57	49
2024-04-26	2.25	2.45	-18.86	65063070	Downward Expansion	-60	44
2024-04-19	2.18	2.45	-19.41	96160823	Downward Expansion	-70	43
2024-04-12	2.29	2.45	-18.24	70689835	Deceleration	-48	31
2024-04-05	2.36	2.46	-17.07	82060125	Deceleration	-14	18
2024-03-29	2.36	2.45	-18.03	49048965	Deceleration	-19	24
2024-03-22	2.30	2.46	-19.90	57508513	Rotation Down	-33	35
2024-03-15	2.33	2.46	-17.04	77234243	Rotation Down	-25	38
2024-03-08	2.30	2.46	-18.40	67588112	Rotation Down	-26	59
2024-03-01	2.30	2.46	-18.92	69596390	Rotation Down	-27	60
2024-02-23	2.29	2.47	-18.51	74655106	Rotation Down	-32	57
2024-02-16	2.25	2.49	-18.81	80812576	Deceleration	-40	46
2024-02-09	2.25	2.50	-19.29	180827241	Deceleration	-28	35
2024-02-02	2.56	2.52	-6.84	61999818	Deceleration	32	32
2024-01-26	2.60	2.52	-4.08	68932098	Upward Expansion	42	25
2024-01-19	2.62	2.52	-2.43	91111326	Upward Expansion	51	42
2024-01-12	2.68	2.53	1.18	90177654	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-01-05	2.86	2.53	9.68	62424106	Rotation Up	71	87
2023-12-29	2.88	2.52	9.00	28607696	Rotation Up	52	80
2023-12-22	2.85	2.51	8.59	74953330	Rotation Up	56	79
2023-12-15	2.81	2.50	7.91	79007490	Rotation Up	48	73
2023-12-08	2.67	2.49	5.54	79823196	Rotation Up	38	64
2023-12-01	2.65	2.48	5.28	74634415	Rotation Up	38	53
2023-11-24	2.60	2.47	4.38	50216243	Downward Expansion	32	35
2023-11-17	2.49	2.46	1.10	69762002	Downward Expansion	-10	18
2023-11-10	2.44	2.44	1.16	110476523	Downward Expansion	-29	18
2023-11-03	2.39	2.43	0.60	81368366	Downward Expansion	-43	28
2023-10-27	2.26	2.42	-0.02	89438433	Rotation Down	-58	46
2023-10-20	2.23	2.41	-4.35	76135738	Rotation Down	-35	47

Price vs TrendAbove+21.3%

Trend directionFalling-2.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+57.9%

Fair Value directionClosing upward+19.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLeading+10.8%

Relative strength directionImproving+13.4%

Price momentumPositive+6.9%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.48×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

48 / ±100

+71.6 points since 2026-09-11

Energy

58 /100

+41.0 points since 2026-09-11

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

BBD Directional State ↗ BBD Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance34

Rotation Up68

Upward Expansion50

Deceleration22

Rotation Down15

Downward Expansion25

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-20 to 2026-10-09 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 9%Rotation Up 14%Upward Expansion 28%Deceleration 15%Rotation Down 10%Downward Expansion 24%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Rotation Up	2026-10-09	2026-10-09	New	+0.0%
Balance	2026-09-25	2026-10-02	New	+7.0%
Downward Expansion	2026-08-21	2026-09-18	Developing	+10.3%
Balance	2026-07-31	2026-08-14	New	-12.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-07-10	2026-07-24	New	-1.4%
Rotation Down	2026-06-12	2026-07-03	New	-1.5%
Balance	2026-05-22	2026-06-05	New	-5.0%
Upward Expansion	2026-04-24	2026-05-15	New	-11.8%
Deceleration	2026-03-20	2026-04-17	Developing	+25.4%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-23	2026-03-13	Developing	-10.5%
Deceleration	2025-12-26	2026-01-16	New	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-29	2025-12-19	Established	+10.0%
Deceleration	2025-08-01	2025-08-22	New	+6.2%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-16	2025-07-25	Developing	+4.2%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing32

Stage 2 · Advancing44

Stage 3 · Distribution53

Stage 4 · Declining23

Legacy result: Stage 3 · Stage 3A · Churning. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus SPY

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Leading benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 88/100
Current Relative Strength: 10.78
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: +6.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -8.0%
Financial Services regime cohort: 100th percentile2 in cohort

Test BBD trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume2.59×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.48×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+50.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore BBD Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity USD 3.78rising

Slow Activity USD 3.52rising

Trend Reference USD 3.55+21.3% close margin

Current Fair Value USD 2.72+57.9% close margin

Structural low USD 2.98shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Full positive ordering with expanding width confirms Upward Expansion. Loss of the fast/slow repair and renewed downside acceptance cancels it.

Range context +6.9%

Annualized volatility +39.9%

From structural high -6.1%

From structural low +46.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs SPY	Regime survived	Read
Near term	11	+5.0%-12.1% to +24.4%	+54.5%	+54.5%	+3.6%	+45.5%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	-10.0%-19.6% to +35.3%	+16.7%	+16.7%	-16.6%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	6	-12.0%-29.4% to +45.7%	+16.7%	+16.7%	-19.5%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-13.1%-27.1% to +18.5%	+33.3%	+33.3%	-20.5%	+0.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

BBD Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Leading benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map