Weekly structural research · MEX · Consumer Cyclical

MAT Stage Analysis

Mattel, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close MXN 223.80Tenure ExtendedBenchmark ^MXX

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: weakening.
Activity structure: moderate and expanding.

Direction -89−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 96/100directional strength

Maturity 66/100lifecycle context

Confidence 74/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Moderateexpanding separation

Price acceptance -100.0%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context -33.5%MXN 336.71 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	223.80	254.41	-23.12	8	Downward Expansion	-89	96
2026-09-18	227.00	256.98	-20.71	75	Downward Expansion	-90	90
2026-09-11	237.00	259.48	-18.58	56	Downward Expansion	-81	61
2026-09-04	241.50	261.05	-18.83	26	Downward Expansion	-61	35
2026-08-28	250.00	265.61	-17.43	0	Downward Expansion	-16	27
2026-08-21	250.00	269.94	-18.40	0	Downward Expansion	-13	34
2026-08-14	266.00	274.27	-12.08	0	Downward Expansion	6	33
2026-08-07	266.00	278.07	-15.97	0	Downward Expansion	-18	25
2026-07-31	263.54	282.54	-17.22	0	Downward Expansion	-51	61
2026-07-24	236.00	286.21	-25.72	0	Downward Expansion	-76	71
2026-07-17	235.00	290.79	-26.93	0	Downward Expansion	-88	76
2026-07-10	232.00	295.41	-28.48	0	Downward Expansion	-96	78
2026-07-03	250.00	300.17	-24.44	0	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2026-06-26	250.00	304.74	-25.34	0	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2026-06-19	250.00	309.07	-26.60	0	Downward Expansion	-72	70
2026-06-12	250.00	312.07	-27.61	0	Downward Expansion	-81	80
2026-06-05	246.00	315.07	-27.53	104	Downward Expansion	-92	96
2026-05-29	256.30	318.21	-27.79	380	Downward Expansion	-82	92
2026-05-22	265.00	320.99	-25.79	0	Downward Expansion	-55	84
2026-05-15	265.00	322.43	-26.11	10	Downward Expansion	-66	87
2026-05-08	260.00	324.93	-30.13	6	Downward Expansion	-65	63
2026-05-01	255.00	327.37	-30.04	30	Downward Expansion	-74	68
2026-04-24	265.00	329.53	-29.78	0	Downward Expansion	-67	77
2026-04-17	265.00	331.97	-31.33	79	Downward Expansion	-68	86
2026-04-10	257.00	334.32	-34.62	0	Downward Expansion	-77	90
2026-04-03	257.00	336.94	-35.40	15	Downward Expansion	-83	91
2026-03-27	260.00	339.71	-32.80	49	Downward Expansion	-89	95
2026-03-20	276.00	342.38	-26.89	0	Downward Expansion	-84	94
2026-03-13	276.00	344.46	-29.51	69	Rotation Down	-88	96
2026-03-06	301.08	346.43	-26.01	0	Rotation Down	-45	79
2026-02-27	301.08	346.79	-31.10	8	Rotation Down	-46	61
2026-02-20	301.86	347.16	-31.85	849	Rotation Down	-49	54
2026-02-13	284.00	347.93	-36.70	1757	Rotation Down	-43	40
2026-02-06	378.39	350.13	-15.94	5	Upward Expansion	58	55
2026-01-30	380.00	349.51	-12.26	0	Upward Expansion	62	80
2026-01-23	380.00	348.85	-13.61	0	Upward Expansion	61	68
2026-01-16	380.00	348.18	-12.85	11	Upward Expansion	62	59
2026-01-09	400.00	347.51	-7.43	38	Upward Expansion	88	80
2026-01-02	373.50	346.18	-11.52	0	Upward Expansion	64	70
2025-12-26	373.50	345.23	-14.15	0	Upward Expansion	66	84
2025-12-19	373.50	345.06	-12.54	5	Rotation Up	68	87
2025-12-12	375.00	345.27	-13.77	42	Rotation Up	47	79
2025-12-05	387.00	345.44	-9.67	1850	Rotation Up	66	83
2025-11-28	380.00	343.87	-12.05	218	Rotation Up	52	62
2025-11-21	340.02	345.91	-19.60	0	Balance	-3	16
2025-11-14	340.02	349.27	-20.74	0	Balance	-17	16
2025-11-07	340.02	352.63	-22.60	14	Downward Expansion	-33	22
2025-10-31	339.71	356.00	-22.47	10	Downward Expansion	-52	36
2025-10-24	308.28	359.37	-28.22	780	Downward Expansion	-85	61
2025-10-17	340.00	363.79	-22.01	83	Downward Expansion	-51	37
2025-10-10	333.00	367.15	-22.41	812	Downward Expansion	-54	44
2025-10-03	320.00	370.75	-27.40	55	Downward Expansion	-77	57
2025-09-26	338.00	374.78	-24.04	110	Downward Expansion	-44	41
2025-09-19	335.69	378.21	-23.47	0	Downward Expansion	-44	44
2025-09-12	335.69	381.72	-24.48	100	Downward Expansion	-46	44
2025-09-05	340.00	385.23	-22.13	0	Downward Expansion	-48	47
2025-08-29	340.00	387.82	-20.07	124	Downward Expansion	-63	77
2025-08-22	338.49	389.96	-21.32	213	Downward Expansion	-67	87
2025-08-15	335.00	392.14	-21.12	19	Downward Expansion	-67	88
2025-08-08	312.01	394.44	-26.38	0	Downward Expansion	-86	95
2025-08-01	312.01	397.51	-25.13	138	Downward Expansion	-83	69
2025-07-25	325.00	400.57	-22.82	1666	Downward Expansion	-81	64
2025-07-18	350.00	403.21	-15.54	25	Downward Expansion	-70	59
2025-07-11	360.00	405.01	-13.47	14	Downward Expansion	-61	59
2025-07-04	360.00	406.47	-15.33	0	Downward Expansion	-63	62
2025-06-27	360.00	407.94	-14.40	92	Downward Expansion	-66	66
2025-06-20	360.00	409.41	-12.61	0	Downward Expansion	-68	67
2025-06-13	360.00	410.87	-14.27	628	Downward Expansion	-72	85
2025-06-06	345.10	412.34	-18.63	79	Downward Expansion	-90	96
2025-05-30	368.20	414.44	-12.84	1846	Deceleration	-52	63
2025-05-23	380.00	415.16	-10.78	0	Deceleration	-38	58
2025-05-16	380.00	414.50	-9.96	31	Rotation Down	-49	61
2025-05-09	340.00	413.83	-17.17	440	Rotation Down	-53	57
2025-05-02	440.92	414.36	8.97	0	Deceleration	57	64
2025-04-25	440.92	411.53	7.88	0	Deceleration	57	64
2025-04-18	440.92	408.70	16.11	0	Deceleration	57	65
2025-04-11	440.92	405.87	20.37	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2025-04-04	440.92	403.04	21.43	0	Upward Expansion	65	68
2025-03-28	440.92	400.21	18.49	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2025-03-21	440.92	397.38	20.44	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2025-03-14	440.92	394.55	21.71	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2025-03-07	440.92	391.72	21.81	0	Upward Expansion	81	73
2025-02-28	440.92	388.89	23.89	0	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-02-21	440.92	385.79	21.61	0	Upward Expansion	96	99
2025-02-14	440.92	382.69	21.79	61	Upward Expansion	95	98
2025-02-07	417.85	377.96	19.11	138	Upward Expansion	93	98
2025-01-31	404.00	374.00	19.71	0	Deceleration	57	85
2025-01-24	404.00	370.87	20.32	0	Deceleration	57	63
2025-01-17	404.00	367.73	24.68	0	Deceleration	57	64
2025-01-10	404.00	364.60	26.55	0	Deceleration	53	63
2025-01-03	404.00	361.47	29.24	0	Upward Expansion	63	67
2024-12-27	404.00	358.33	29.37	0	Upward Expansion	65	67
2024-12-20	404.00	355.53	29.64	0	Upward Expansion	66	68
2024-12-13	404.00	352.73	25.52	0	Upward Expansion	67	69
2024-12-06	404.00	349.93	27.05	0	Upward Expansion	69	85
2024-11-29	404.00	347.13	31.78	0	Upward Expansion	72	90
2024-11-22	404.00	344.33	31.06	0	Upward Expansion	89	96
2024-11-15	404.00	341.53	31.56	9	Upward Expansion	98	99
2024-11-08	408.00	338.73	29.92	33	Upward Expansion	97	99
2024-11-01	390.00	335.80	27.63	40	Upward Expansion	96	99
2024-10-25	359.99	333.47	15.51	0	Upward Expansion	81	93
2024-10-18	359.99	332.56	12.62	42	Deceleration	71	64
2024-10-11	356.00	331.65	12.39	0	Deceleration	55	60
2024-10-04	356.00	330.45	11.70	0	Upward Expansion	61	62
2024-09-27	356.00	329.25	11.02	0	Upward Expansion	63	65
2024-09-20	356.00	327.72	11.94	0	Upward Expansion	65	66
2024-09-13	356.00	326.19	12.25	0	Upward Expansion	67	71
2024-09-06	356.00	324.65	14.24	0	Upward Expansion	69	89
2024-08-30	356.00	322.79	10.20	0	Upward Expansion	72	90
2024-08-23	356.00	320.92	8.90	0	Upward Expansion	73	90
2024-08-16	356.00	319.05	7.66	0	Upward Expansion	84	74
2024-08-09	356.00	317.19	9.66	80	Upward Expansion	91	77
2024-08-02	348.00	315.45	8.80	32	Rotation Up	88	71
2024-07-26	348.00	314.48	7.60	43	Rotation Up	30	24
2024-07-19	299.00	313.51	-8.97	0	Rotation Down	-71	90
2024-07-12	299.00	314.21	-11.39	15	Rotation Down	-72	90
2024-07-05	310.00	314.91	-3.90	0	Rotation Down	-31	76
2024-06-28	310.00	315.24	-4.27	0	Rotation Down	-40	79
2024-06-21	310.00	315.58	-5.02	0	Rotation Down	-52	83
2024-06-14	310.00	316.81	-4.13	0	Rotation Down	-56	66
2024-06-07	310.00	318.04	-5.55	83	Rotation Down	-50	38
2024-05-31	320.00	319.28	-6.50	0	Deceleration	7	10
2024-05-24	320.00	320.18	-7.05	0	Deceleration	8	14
2024-05-17	320.00	321.69	-10.68	0	Deceleration	-11	20
2024-05-10	320.00	323.42	-11.07	0	Deceleration	-21	24
2024-05-03	320.00	325.02	-10.17	0	Deceleration	-20	27
2024-04-26	320.00	327.04	-11.25	0	Rotation Up	-17	27
2024-04-19	320.00	329.43	-8.13	0	Rotation Up	3	27
2024-04-12	320.00	330.80	-9.26	0	Rotation Up	7	38
2024-04-05	320.00	332.16	-11.64	5	Rotation Up	6	39
2024-03-29	332.80	334.10	-7.01	0	Rotation Up	29	54
2024-03-22	332.80	335.50	-5.73	1610	Rotation Up	23	42
2024-03-15	320.00	336.46	-8.73	0	Downward Expansion	-35	45
2024-03-08	320.00	337.94	-6.91	1005	Downward Expansion	-42	37
2024-03-01	310.00	339.51	-11.04	0	Downward Expansion	-55	61
2024-02-23	310.00	341.20	-13.06	0	Downward Expansion	-57	62
2024-02-16	310.00	342.54	-14.11	6	Downward Expansion	-68	68
2024-02-09	300.00	344.17	-17.46	0	Downward Expansion	-71	90
2024-02-02	300.00	346.14	-19.11	0	Downward Expansion	-79	93
2024-01-26	300.00	347.84	-17.51	13	Downward Expansion	-87	94
2024-01-19	300.00	349.08	-15.73	74	Downward Expansion	-94	98
2024-01-12	304.00	350.32	-15.14	7	Downward Expansion	-97	99
2024-01-05	318.70	351.43	-12.27	144	Downward Expansion	-73	90
2023-12-29	319.00	352.05	-14.32	267	Downward Expansion	-72	90
2023-12-22	320.00	352.66	-14.39	0	Downward Expansion	-75	91
2023-12-15	320.00	353.24	-14.48	40	Rotation Down	-84	94
2023-12-08	320.00	353.82	-10.58	0	Rotation Down	-64	87
2023-12-01	320.00	353.39	-10.07	15	Rotation Down	-57	79
2023-11-24	347.00	352.96	-0.99	0	Rotation Down	-30	61
2023-11-17	347.00	351.62	-0.67	0	Deceleration	-31	40
2023-11-10	347.00	350.29	1.95	0	Deceleration	-11	26
2023-11-03	347.00	348.96	1.85	80	Deceleration	5	15
2023-10-27	365.37	347.63	12.14	19	Upward Expansion	42	29
2023-10-20	372.00	345.69	15.82	25	Upward Expansion	57	48
2023-10-13	368.00	343.53	11.38	425	Upward Expansion	57	43
2023-10-06	380.66	343.09	13.69	169	Upward Expansion	64	45

Price vs TrendBelow-12.0%

Trend directionFalling-12.5%

Price vs current Fair ValueBelow anchor-33.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-5.6%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-23.1%

Relative strength directionImproving+2.2%

Price momentumNegative-13.9%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.00×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-89 / ±100

-73.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

96 /100

+68.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MAT Directional State ↗ MAT Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up8

Upward Expansion22

Deceleration37

Rotation Down89

Downward Expansion100

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 1%Rotation Up 8%Upward Expansion 26%Deceleration 12%Rotation Down 12%Downward Expansion 41%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-03-20	2026-09-25	Extended	-18.9%
Rotation Down	2026-02-13	2026-03-13	Developing	-2.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-12-26	2026-02-06	Developing	+1.3%
Rotation Up	2025-11-28	2025-12-19	New	-1.7%
Balance	2025-11-14	2025-11-21	New	+0.0%
Downward Expansion	2025-06-06	2025-11-07	Established	-1.5%
Deceleration	2025-05-23	2025-05-30	New	-3.1%
Rotation Down	2025-05-09	2025-05-16	New	+11.8%
Deceleration	2025-04-18	2025-05-02	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2025-02-07	2025-04-11	Developing	+5.5%
Deceleration	2025-01-10	2025-01-31	New	+0.0%
Upward Expansion	2024-10-25	2025-01-03	Developing	+12.2%
Deceleration	2024-10-11	2024-10-18	New	+1.1%
Upward Expansion	2024-08-09	2024-10-04	Developing	+0.0%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing62

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution9

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^MXX

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 85/100
Current Relative Strength: -23.12
Relative Strength direction: Improving
Price momentum: -13.9%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -11.4%
Consumer Cyclical regime cohort: 67th percentile48 in cohort

Test MAT trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.24×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.00×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution0 / 2

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationWeakening

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+37.5%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MAT Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity MXN 231.40falling

Slow Activity MXN 248.08falling

Trend Reference MXN 254.41-12.0% close margin

Current Fair Value MXN 336.71-33.5% close margin

Structural low MXN 223.80shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +3.4%

Annualized volatility +24.9%

From structural high -44.0%

From structural low +0.0%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^MXX	Regime survived	Read
Near term	28	+0.0%-13.5% to +14.7%	+32.1%	+35.7%	-0.7%	+85.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	9	-3.0%-17.0% to +13.8%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-4.1%	+66.7%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	5	-3.1%-19.5% to +12.1%	+40.0%	+60.0%	+3.0%	+40.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	3	-17.4%-28.7% to +26.2%	+33.3%	+66.7%	-27.9%	+33.3%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MAT Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map