Weekly structural research · SAO · Consumer Defensive

MOOO34 Stage Analysis

Altria Group, Inc.

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close BRL 71.61Tenure DevelopingBenchmark ^BVSP

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Deceleration · Re-acceleration watch

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set.

The Trend gate is up within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: compressed and contracting.
Re-acceleration watch: Fast Activity is turning upward after a positive-structure recompression.

Direction 38−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 24/100directional strength

Maturity 35/100lifecycle context

Confidence 54/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Upstructural direction

Activity structure Compressedcontracting separation

Price acceptance +33.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +26.5%BRL 56.60 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	71.61	69.81	-0.38	260	Deceleration	38	24
2026-09-18	71.82	69.74	-1.38	102	Deceleration	34	18
2026-09-11	69.48	69.61	-5.90	563	Deceleration	-11	13
2026-09-04	71.02	69.48	-3.27	242	Deceleration	-12	19
2026-08-28	69.25	69.35	-1.08	1256	Deceleration	-20	32
2026-08-21	67.03	69.13	-2.10	34	Deceleration	-30	36
2026-08-14	68.81	69.00	2.41	1590	Deceleration	9	21
2026-08-07	68.40	68.88	-1.88	75	Deceleration	15	14
2026-07-31	68.86	68.52	-4.69	145	Upward Expansion	30	22
2026-07-24	74.22	68.26	4.55	880	Upward Expansion	61	50
2026-07-17	75.04	67.91	5.67	995	Upward Expansion	70	75
2026-07-10	72.82	67.50	0.01	145	Upward Expansion	62	70
2026-07-03	74.89	67.10	4.77	610	Upward Expansion	77	71
2026-06-26	75.77	66.62	6.59	660	Upward Expansion	85	56
2026-06-19	71.19	66.10	2.90	20	Upward Expansion	63	41
2026-06-12	69.44	65.75	-1.28	0	Upward Expansion	59	58
2026-06-05	68.68	65.41	-1.37	15	Upward Expansion	61	73
2026-05-29	71.65	65.08	-0.17	35	Upward Expansion	65	78
2026-05-22	73.57	64.68	0.85	560	Upward Expansion	79	78
2026-05-15	72.64	64.46	-1.25	85	Deceleration	73	46
2026-05-08	67.30	64.30	-12.02	675	Deceleration	23	17
2026-05-01	65.19	64.41	-16.62	40	Deceleration	22	20
2026-04-24	65.28	64.46	-18.46	130	Deceleration	27	21
2026-04-17	64.10	64.53	-22.41	70	Deceleration	23	16
2026-04-10	67.05	64.59	-20.09	1825	Deceleration	39	23
2026-04-03	66.60	64.64	-17.25	60	Rotation Up	43	27
2026-03-27	68.60	64.74	-12.23	45	Rotation Up	61	41
2026-03-20	66.46	64.74	-12.79	60	Rotation Up	34	40
2026-03-13	67.94	64.85	-11.91	25	Rotation Up	38	61
2026-03-06	69.60	64.84	-11.03	530	Rotation Up	46	68
2026-02-27	69.46	64.74	-16.04	1505	Rotation Up	42	66
2026-02-20	68.10	64.60	-18.88	140	Rotation Up	40	58
2026-02-13	65.55	64.42	-20.56	15	Balance	23	37
2026-02-06	67.07	64.29	-17.50	11640	Balance	17	28
2026-01-30	62.48	64.10	-22.78	700	Balance	-22	12
2026-01-23	63.28	64.06	-21.06	805	Downward Expansion	-33	18
2026-01-16	65.08	63.99	-12.28	10	Downward Expansion	-20	14
2026-01-09	57.68	63.91	-21.84	170	Downward Expansion	-79	47
2026-01-02	61.13	64.07	-16.21	95	Downward Expansion	-41	25
2025-12-26	63.59	64.11	-13.52	0	Rotation Down	-39	25
2025-12-19	62.81	64.11	-13.67	75	Rotation Down	-46	39
2025-12-12	60.73	64.15	-18.10	110	Rotation Down	-60	54
2025-12-05	60.51	64.16	-17.02	60	Rotation Down	-37	70
2025-11-28	60.20	64.26	-18.74	10	Rotation Down	-37	72
2025-11-21	60.59	64.36	-16.38	1065	Rotation Down	-29	70
2025-11-14	59.25	64.44	-20.02	375	Rotation Down	-40	70
2025-11-07	59.05	64.59	-18.69	745	Rotation Down	-44	47
2025-10-31	59.43	64.67	-15.90	715	Rotation Down	-15	16
2025-10-24	67.17	64.75	-3.00	550	Deceleration	50	32
2025-10-17	67.78	64.62	0.01	410	Deceleration	43	32
2025-10-10	70.67	64.41	6.60	35	Deceleration	65	38
2025-10-03	66.49	64.14	-1.73	75	Upward Expansion	42	27
2025-09-26	67.44	63.99	-0.85	265	Upward Expansion	49	40
2025-09-19	65.82	63.76	-3.20	325	Upward Expansion	62	51
2025-09-12	68.74	63.50	3.92	55	Upward Expansion	67	81
2025-09-05	69.40	63.13	4.97	1930	Upward Expansion	76	90
2025-08-29	68.57	62.71	4.98	10	Upward Expansion	74	90
2025-08-22	69.86	62.33	9.98	2865	Upward Expansion	92	97
2025-08-15	67.68	61.87	8.37	210	Upward Expansion	86	89
2025-08-08	66.45	61.55	7.27	40	Balance	77	72
2025-08-01	65.28	61.29	8.59	285	Balance	57	40
2025-07-25	62.92	61.14	4.14	50	Balance	21	13
2025-07-18	61.57	61.06	2.30	160	Balance	5	19
2025-07-11	61.50	61.09	0.38	260	Balance	6	15
2025-07-04	61.04	61.07	-3.73	155	Balance	4	11
2025-06-27	61.33	61.16	0.29	375	Upward Expansion	24	14
2025-06-20	62.52	61.23	2.38	130	Upward Expansion	36	19
2025-06-13	62.48	61.17	2.62	655	Upward Expansion	39	24
2025-06-06	62.42	61.05	3.78	175	Upward Expansion	50	26
2025-05-30	63.60	60.89	5.45	45	Upward Expansion	59	34
2025-05-23	63.91	60.72	5.90	20	Upward Expansion	62	34
2025-05-16	61.28	60.33	1.11	335	Upward Expansion	52	30
2025-05-09	63.42	60.02	7.23	100	Upward Expansion	60	46
2025-05-02	63.22	59.64	8.66	90	Upward Expansion	61	41
2025-04-25	62.78	59.19	8.99	95	Upward Expansion	56	38
2025-04-18	63.85	58.81	15.99	90	Upward Expansion	67	44
2025-04-11	61.60	58.37	14.57	1765	Upward Expansion	55	39
2025-04-04	61.79	58.16	16.28	200	Upward Expansion	59	61
2025-03-28	63.24	57.91	15.81	490	Upward Expansion	70	74
2025-03-21	61.39	57.65	12.97	7645	Upward Expansion	57	62
2025-03-14	62.58	57.34	19.09	305	Deceleration	57	56
2025-03-07	62.09	56.95	22.92	100	Deceleration	52	34
2025-02-28	60.59	56.58	23.33	800	Deceleration	37	19
2025-02-21	58.02	56.31	15.28	3480	Deceleration	8	12
2025-02-14	57.45	56.10	14.16	110	Deceleration	5	17
2025-02-07	56.92	55.85	17.37	445	Deceleration	4	18
2025-01-31	57.06	55.51	17.31	1240	Deceleration	16	21
2025-01-24	56.13	55.13	19.87	2750	Deceleration	19	20
2025-01-17	58.09	54.79	25.34	1405	Deceleration	37	23
2025-01-10	58.61	54.36	31.52	2165	Upward Expansion	44	33
2025-01-03	60.89	53.85	38.57	60	Upward Expansion	50	45
2024-12-27	60.60	53.30	37.66	500	Upward Expansion	64	58
2024-12-20	62.43	52.68	41.53	480	Upward Expansion	69	68
2024-12-13	60.73	52.00	36.72	525	Upward Expansion	68	76
2024-12-06	63.88	51.37	43.93	520	Upward Expansion	86	94
2024-11-29	63.47	50.62	45.15	1785	Upward Expansion	92	96
2024-11-22	60.49	49.83	36.30	555	Upward Expansion	86	95
2024-11-15	59.12	49.13	36.06	1835	Upward Expansion	85	93
2024-11-08	57.47	48.46	33.62	590	Upward Expansion	82	87
2024-11-01	58.50	47.81	37.00	2735	Deceleration	88	64
2024-10-25	52.15	47.11	21.61	880	Deceleration	40	27
2024-10-18	52.04	46.68	21.50	1650	Deceleration	37	26
2024-10-11	51.89	46.22	22.11	400	Deceleration	37	30
2024-10-04	49.93	45.78	16.42	1265	Upward Expansion	45	34
2024-09-27	51.17	45.34	18.83	270	Upward Expansion	53	52
2024-09-20	50.93	44.83	20.28	5045	Upward Expansion	66	65
2024-09-13	55.02	44.34	26.82	195	Upward Expansion	76	71
2024-09-06	54.30	43.68	26.17	840	Upward Expansion	77	70
2024-08-30	55.45	43.04	28.08	1975	Upward Expansion	90	75
2024-08-23	52.11	42.40	21.39	410	Upward Expansion	74	70
2024-08-16	50.83	41.83	20.41	315	Upward Expansion	67	73
2024-08-09	51.04	41.30	24.47	430	Upward Expansion	69	85
2024-08-02	52.70	40.79	34.05	15570	Upward Expansion	93	95
2024-07-26	51.50	40.22	30.20	125	Upward Expansion	96	96
2024-07-19	50.12	39.65	27.36	170	Upward Expansion	97	94
2024-07-12	46.52	39.14	17.67	155	Upward Expansion	82	89
2024-07-05	45.71	38.78	18.34	340	Upward Expansion	77	86
2024-06-28	46.11	38.44	21.98	305	Upward Expansion	90	95
2024-06-21	45.05	38.10	22.14	3285	Upward Expansion	89	94
2024-06-14	43.28	37.77	19.53	330	Upward Expansion	73	88
2024-06-07	44.55	37.48	22.33	12500	Upward Expansion	94	96
2024-05-31	41.97	37.13	14.39	10	Upward Expansion	74	89
2024-05-24	41.83	36.89	12.05	175	Upward Expansion	77	89
2024-05-17	41.97	36.64	9.04	765	Upward Expansion	85	91
2024-05-10	41.46	36.48	8.09	5280	Upward Expansion	86	86
2024-05-03	39.54	36.35	2.23	8845	Upward Expansion	71	58
2024-04-26	39.70	36.27	3.87	210	Upward Expansion	77	57
2024-04-19	39.07	36.17	2.93	130	Upward Expansion	75	59
2024-04-12	37.78	36.09	-1.50	280	Upward Expansion	63	68
2024-04-05	37.63	36.07	-2.85	4595	Upward Expansion	66	81
2024-03-29	39.15	36.06	-0.43	85	Rotation Up	84	88
2024-03-22	38.28	35.99	-2.19	6910	Rotation Up	49	71
2024-03-15	38.71	35.93	-1.43	615	Rotation Up	56	67
2024-03-08	36.86	35.85	-6.83	2540	Balance	29	37
2024-03-01	35.81	35.84	-11.47	55	Balance	-12	14
2024-02-23	36.23	35.87	-11.17	1015	Balance	-4	9
2024-02-16	35.28	35.89	-13.53	160	Balance	-24	12
2024-02-09	35.10	35.95	-13.99	60	Balance	-37	17
2024-02-02	36.06	36.02	-11.56	2740	Balance	-12	8
2024-01-26	34.96	36.10	-15.85	55	Downward Expansion	-51	22
2024-01-19	35.00	36.17	-15.17	185	Downward Expansion	-50	24
2024-01-12	35.74	36.19	-15.92	460	Downward Expansion	-38	22
2024-01-05	35.63	36.21	-17.16	7555	Downward Expansion	-49	26
2023-12-29	34.42	36.26	-21.70	295	Downward Expansion	-63	35
2023-12-22	34.75	36.36	-20.59	2605	Downward Expansion	-45	22
2023-12-15	35.94	36.46	-16.75	3390	Downward Expansion	-36	20
2023-12-08	35.23	36.51	-16.93	1070	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2023-12-01	36.02	36.58	-16.14	840	Downward Expansion	-57	42
2023-11-24	35.16	36.66	-16.81	170	Downward Expansion	-60	73
2023-11-17	34.67	36.81	-18.00	45	Downward Expansion	-61	80
2023-11-10	34.03	36.95	-16.89	1255	Downward Expansion	-77	83
2023-11-03	34.64	37.05	-13.88	255	Downward Expansion	-74	71
2023-10-27	34.29	37.14	-11.17	695	Downward Expansion	-73	49
2023-10-20	37.30	37.25	-3.49	1425	Balance	-9	11
2023-10-13	37.50	37.30	-5.04	110	Balance	-4	5
2023-10-06	37.33	37.35	-4.26	135	Balance	-12	7

Price vs TrendAbove+2.6%

Trend directionRising+2.8%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+26.5%

Fair Value directionMoving away-14.4%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-0.4%

Relative strength directionWeakening-7.0%

Price momentumPositive+4.4%

Volume balanceDemand-led1.54×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

38 / ±100

+57.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

24 /100

-8.1 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

MOOO34 Directional State ↗ MOOO34 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance47

Rotation Up54

Upward Expansion67

Deceleration64

Rotation Down12

Downward Expansion10

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 12%Rotation Up 6%Upward Expansion 46%Deceleration 19%Rotation Down 6%Downward Expansion 12%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Deceleration	2026-08-07	2026-09-25	Developing	+4.7%
Upward Expansion	2026-05-22	2026-07-31	Developing	-6.4%
Deceleration	2026-04-10	2026-05-15	Developing	+8.3%
Rotation Up	2026-02-20	2026-04-03	Developing	-2.2%
Balance	2026-01-30	2026-02-13	New	+4.9%
Downward Expansion	2026-01-02	2026-01-23	New	+3.5%
Rotation Down	2025-10-31	2025-12-26	Developing	+7.0%
Deceleration	2025-10-10	2025-10-24	New	-4.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-08-15	2025-10-03	Developing	-1.8%
Balance	2025-07-04	2025-08-08	Developing	+8.9%
Upward Expansion	2025-03-21	2025-06-27	Established	-0.1%
Deceleration	2025-01-17	2025-03-14	Developing	+7.7%
Upward Expansion	2024-11-08	2025-01-10	Developing	+2.0%
Deceleration	2024-10-11	2024-11-01	New	+12.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing21

Stage 2 · Advancing76

Stage 3 · Distribution78

Stage 4 · Declining24

Legacy result: Stage 2 · Stage 2B · Advancing. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^BVSP

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 57/100
Current Relative Strength: -0.38
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: +4.4%
Excess performance vs benchmark: +3.3%
Consumer Defensive regime cohort: 11th percentile9 in cohort

Test MOOO34 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.63×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume1.54×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution3 / 3

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+75.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+25.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore MOOO34 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity BRL 71.00rising

Slow Activity BRL 70.51rising

Trend Reference BRL 69.81+2.6% close margin

Current Fair Value BRL 56.60+26.5% close margin

Structural low BRL 64.00shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Renewed positive order and expanding width produce re-acceleration; fast/slow failure with downside acceptance produces Rotation Down.

Range context +4.2%

Annualized volatility +24.1%

From structural high -7.3%

From structural low +24.1%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^BVSP	Regime survived	Read
Near term	12	+2.2%-16.4% to +10.8%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+4.3%	+50.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	6	+9.3%-18.4% to +14.0%	+66.7%	+66.7%	+11.2%	+0.0%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	4	+5.5%-8.4% to +18.7%	+50.0%	+50.0%	+6.6%	+25.0%	Too little matched history
Full cycle	2	+20.1%+4.0% to +36.2%	+100.0%	+100.0%	+26.4%	+50.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

MOOO34 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map