Weekly structural research · HKG · Financial Services

0373 Stage Analysis

Allied Group Limited

Week ending 25 Sep 2026Close HKD 1.98Tenure EstablishedBenchmark ^HSI

Screen this regime Supporting research Report data ↗

Executive diagnosis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

Structure, not prediction

Downward Expansion · Established contraction

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation.

The Trend gate is down within the current regime.
Fast Activity versus Slow Activity: improving.
Activity structure: wide and contracting.

Direction -78−100 bearish to +100 bullish

Energy 59/100directional strength

Maturity 51/100lifecycle context

Confidence 89/100evidence agreement

Trend gate Downstructural direction

Activity structure Widecontracting separation

Price acceptance -83.3%position within the Activity structure

Fair Value context +8.9%HKD 1.82 · weakening

Trend Architecture map · Historical context

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Follow price and Trend first, then add Activity Lines to inspect the structure. Subtle bands show the regime recognized at each completed observation; the dashed line marks current Fair Value, not a historical forecast.

CloseTrendCurrent Fair Value

Background stage key

BalanceDirection is contained.
Rotation UpStructure is turning higher.
Upward ExpansionUptrend is established.
DecelerationUptrend is losing energy.
Rotation DownStructure is turning lower.
Downward ExpansionDowntrend is established.

View chart values · 156 observations

Week	Close	Trend	Relative Strength	Volume	Regime	Direction	Energy
2026-09-25	1.98	2.40	-14.95	462000	Downward Expansion	-78	59
2026-09-18	2.00	2.45	-15.34	1816000	Downward Expansion	-79	56
2026-09-11	2.12	2.49	-10.48	260000	Downward Expansion	-67	46
2026-09-04	2.30	2.52	-5.93	1220000	Downward Expansion	-46	38
2026-08-28	2.09	2.54	-14.27	602000	Downward Expansion	-73	57
2026-08-21	2.14	2.57	-13.70	198000	Downward Expansion	-58	46
2026-08-14	2.22	2.59	-7.16	37040	Downward Expansion	-48	43
2026-08-07	2.23	2.61	-8.62	78000	Downward Expansion	-61	53
2026-07-31	2.23	2.61	-8.98	42000	Downward Expansion	-64	62
2026-07-24	2.19	2.62	-6.89	928000	Downward Expansion	-67	83
2026-07-17	2.11	2.63	-8.37	616000	Downward Expansion	-78	90
2026-07-10	2.20	2.63	-2.47	132000	Downward Expansion	-72	86
2026-07-03	2.15	2.63	-0.79	94000	Downward Expansion	-82	79
2026-06-26	2.21	2.63	5.60	1454000	Downward Expansion	-80	65
2026-06-19	2.39	2.63	8.98	4410000	Downward Expansion	-39	44
2026-06-12	2.56	2.61	13.80	540000	Rotation Down	-33	42
2026-06-05	2.43	2.60	7.87	296000	Rotation Down	-37	61
2026-05-29	2.30	2.59	1.93	4414000	Rotation Down	-48	63
2026-05-22	2.37	2.59	3.90	2630000	Rotation Down	-37	55
2026-05-15	2.40	2.59	4.42	3778000	Rotation Down	-37	51
2026-05-08	2.55	2.59	9.87	1313040	Deceleration	-25	38
2026-05-01	2.55	2.59	13.32	1106000	Deceleration	-7	19
2026-04-24	2.63	2.58	16.72	1764000	Deceleration	-1	18
2026-04-17	2.65	2.56	17.67	2248000	Deceleration	2	21
2026-04-10	2.72	2.54	23.28	3676000	Deceleration	16	26
2026-04-03	2.62	2.53	23.22	4132002	Deceleration	16	25
2026-03-27	2.64	2.52	26.06	6490000	Upward Expansion	31	22
2026-03-20	2.68	2.50	27.51	13746000	Upward Expansion	48	42
2026-03-13	3.11	2.48	48.43	7050000	Upward Expansion	65	62
2026-03-06	3.23	2.44	54.90	9806000	Upward Expansion	68	73
2026-02-27	3.44	2.39	61.79	9378000	Upward Expansion	90	91
2026-02-20	3.12	2.32	50.53	732000	Upward Expansion	77	87
2026-02-13	3.19	2.27	55.15	12656000	Upward Expansion	89	94
2026-02-06	2.95	2.22	46.09	7310000	Upward Expansion	83	93
2026-01-30	2.80	2.17	35.91	7730840	Upward Expansion	77	90
2026-01-23	2.85	2.13	42.81	4948000	Upward Expansion	89	93
2026-01-16	2.75	2.09	38.86	7246000	Upward Expansion	90	88
2026-01-09	2.43	2.05	26.79	3114000	Upward Expansion	69	71
2026-01-02	2.52	2.02	31.50	3828000	Deceleration	64	55
2025-12-26	2.28	1.99	22.21	712000	Deceleration	44	29
2025-12-19	2.21	1.96	19.87	778660	Deceleration	22	14
2025-12-12	2.20	1.94	18.60	1444000	Deceleration	16	16
2025-12-05	2.15	1.91	15.54	1402000	Deceleration	11	18
2025-11-28	2.04	1.89	11.25	500000	Deceleration	20	24
2025-11-21	1.97	1.87	10.57	1652000	Deceleration	23	21
2025-11-14	2.14	1.85	13.87	902000	Upward Expansion	41	26
2025-11-07	2.17	1.83	17.18	1592100	Upward Expansion	56	40
2025-10-31	2.31	1.80	27.12	2104000	Upward Expansion	61	52
2025-10-24	2.39	1.77	30.81	2216000	Upward Expansion	63	55
2025-10-17	2.43	1.74	38.57	6396000	Upward Expansion	69	57
2025-10-10	2.57	1.72	42.04	12326120	Upward Expansion	84	63
2025-10-03	2.12	1.68	14.28	1348000	Upward Expansion	63	59
2025-09-26	2.09	1.65	17.39	2244000	Upward Expansion	66	66
2025-09-19	2.18	1.63	21.23	1570000	Upward Expansion	68	77
2025-09-12	2.36	1.60	31.80	5264040	Upward Expansion	88	96
2025-09-05	2.23	1.57	29.90	4356000	Upward Expansion	88	95
2025-08-29	2.13	1.54	25.64	11168000	Upward Expansion	91	96
2025-08-22	2.18	1.52	27.90	11078000	Upward Expansion	98	95
2025-08-15	1.78	1.49	4.65	5292020	Upward Expansion	92	68
2025-08-08	1.62	1.48	-3.73	3014000	Upward Expansion	74	54
2025-08-01	1.56	1.47	-6.36	2133575	Upward Expansion	63	52
2025-07-25	1.61	1.46	-7.35	1274000	Upward Expansion	82	83
2025-07-18	1.57	1.45	-8.05	2746000	Upward Expansion	69	81
2025-07-11	1.57	1.44	-5.94	2204400	Upward Expansion	72	85
2025-07-04	1.58	1.44	-4.88	2137600	Upward Expansion	79	83
2025-06-27	1.55	1.43	-8.39	2886000	Upward Expansion	71	76
2025-06-20	1.55	1.42	-5.88	546000	Upward Expansion	72	72
2025-06-13	1.53	1.42	-8.82	946000	Upward Expansion	66	65
2025-06-06	1.52	1.41	-9.40	2050800	Upward Expansion	66	57
2025-05-30	1.49	1.41	-9.59	268000	Upward Expansion	60	48
2025-05-23	1.51	1.40	-10.02	340000	Upward Expansion	68	46
2025-05-16	1.45	1.40	-12.85	0	Deceleration	38	24
2025-05-09	1.45	1.40	-11.35	0	Deceleration	38	22
2025-05-02	1.45	1.40	-10.15	54000	Deceleration	36	21
2025-04-25	1.45	1.41	-8.26	202000	Deceleration	40	22
2025-04-18	1.43	1.41	-7.26	830000	Rotation Up	50	30
2025-04-11	1.40	1.40	-8.20	1204000	Rotation Up	28	38
2025-04-04	1.49	1.40	-10.78	5454400	Rotation Up	68	79
2025-03-28	1.47	1.40	-14.70	908000	Rotation Up	37	68
2025-03-21	1.56	1.40	-11.39	2728000	Rotation Up	57	75
2025-03-14	1.44	1.40	-19.45	312000	Balance	40	43
2025-03-07	1.40	1.40	-23.56	28020	Balance	-0	13
2025-02-28	1.39	1.40	-20.59	440000	Balance	-14	11
2025-02-21	1.38	1.40	-23.57	2522000	Downward Expansion	-24	15
2025-02-14	1.38	1.40	-21.30	688000	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2025-02-07	1.36	1.40	-17.62	142000	Downward Expansion	-44	28
2025-01-31	1.37	1.41	-14.00	50000	Downward Expansion	-39	27
2025-01-24	1.37	1.41	-13.97	120000	Downward Expansion	-40	25
2025-01-17	1.37	1.41	-12.51	598000	Downward Expansion	-43	36
2025-01-10	1.37	1.41	-10.74	638000	Downward Expansion	-46	43
2025-01-03	1.37	1.42	-14.40	248000	Downward Expansion	-56	39
2024-12-27	1.35	1.42	-17.43	164000	Downward Expansion	-60	51
2024-12-20	1.35	1.42	-16.38	1306000	Downward Expansion	-60	53
2024-12-13	1.36	1.43	-17.31	2002000	Downward Expansion	-59	55
2024-12-06	1.34	1.43	-18.46	14000	Downward Expansion	-67	64
2024-11-29	1.36	1.43	-15.91	656000	Downward Expansion	-64	61
2024-11-22	1.37	1.43	-14.84	576000	Balance	-63	54
2024-11-15	1.37	1.43	-16.00	850000	Balance	-37	32
2024-11-08	1.41	1.43	-19.39	846000	Balance	-7	14
2024-11-01	1.41	1.44	-18.35	690000	Balance	14	10
2024-10-25	1.42	1.44	-18.47	1006000	Balance	7	14
2024-10-18	1.44	1.45	-18.59	2562000	Balance	17	21
2024-10-11	1.47	1.45	-19.09	3010000	Rotation Up	17	22
2024-10-04	1.57	1.45	-19.70	1380000	Rotation Up	41	35
2024-09-27	1.43	1.45	-19.38	594000	Downward Expansion	-49	33
2024-09-20	1.41	1.45	-10.38	370000	Downward Expansion	-53	42
2024-09-13	1.40	1.46	-7.20	0	Balance	-66	44
2024-09-06	1.42	1.46	-5.77	731200	Balance	-51	22
2024-08-30	1.43	1.47	-8.07	364000	Balance	-26	12
2024-08-23	1.44	1.47	-5.56	0	Downward Expansion	-25	13
2024-08-16	1.44	1.47	-4.62	0	Downward Expansion	-37	22
2024-08-09	1.44	1.48	-2.77	424000	Downward Expansion	-48	27
2024-08-02	1.42	1.48	-3.24	94680	Downward Expansion	-55	29
2024-07-26	1.42	1.48	-3.62	262000	Downward Expansion	-55	30
2024-07-19	1.43	1.49	-5.14	1584000	Downward Expansion	-52	28
2024-07-12	1.46	1.49	-7.86	2214000	Downward Expansion	-47	25
2024-07-05	1.42	1.49	-7.81	528000	Downward Expansion	-55	33
2024-06-28	1.42	1.49	-7.52	4000	Downward Expansion	-55	31
2024-06-21	1.44	1.50	-7.95	444940	Downward Expansion	-38	24
2024-06-14	1.43	1.50	-8.18	189540	Downward Expansion	-40	21
2024-06-07	1.46	1.50	-8.49	148000	Downward Expansion	-36	22
2024-05-31	1.44	1.50	-8.30	0	Downward Expansion	-43	27
2024-05-24	1.46	1.51	-9.80	17622	Downward Expansion	-58	42
2024-05-17	1.47	1.51	-13.70	20000	Downward Expansion	-61	71
2024-05-10	1.39	1.51	-16.36	62000	Downward Expansion	-66	80
2024-05-03	1.39	1.52	-14.29	76000	Downward Expansion	-70	78
2024-04-26	1.36	1.52	-12.18	664000	Balance	-77	73
2024-04-19	1.43	1.52	1.00	246000	Balance	-36	33
2024-04-12	1.54	1.53	5.55	0	Balance	37	18
2024-04-05	1.54	1.53	5.96	0	Balance	34	14
2024-03-29	1.54	1.53	7.52	58000	Balance	33	12
2024-03-22	1.54	1.53	8.21	178000	Balance	5	3
2024-03-15	1.48	1.53	3.13	150000	Balance	-18	11
2024-03-08	1.56	1.53	11.11	200000	Balance	47	20
2024-03-01	1.54	1.53	8.51	218000	Balance	28	13
2024-02-23	1.51	1.53	5.93	423200	Balance	-11	8
2024-02-16	1.54	1.54	10.72	30000	Balance	3	5
2024-02-09	1.52	1.54	13.85	8000	Balance	-5	3
2024-02-02	1.53	1.54	16.62	8000	Balance	13	14
2024-01-26	1.58	1.54	17.73	132000	Balance	17	19
2024-01-19	1.51	1.54	18.13	402000	Balance	-21	14
2024-01-12	1.57	1.54	16.22	212000	Balance	15	14
2024-01-05	1.51	1.54	10.50	32000	Balance	-25	10
2023-12-29	1.58	1.54	12.27	6000	Balance	-3	3
2023-12-22	1.51	1.54	12.37	0	Downward Expansion	-46	29
2023-12-15	1.50	1.55	8.84	424000	Downward Expansion	-43	26
2023-12-08	1.52	1.55	13.32	393800	Downward Expansion	-34	18
2023-12-01	1.50	1.55	8.72	880500	Downward Expansion	-50	24
2023-11-24	1.52	1.55	5.45	900000	Downward Expansion	-30	14
2023-11-17	1.54	1.55	7.17	4000	Downward Expansion	-23	16
2023-11-10	1.52	1.55	7.23	702000	Downward Expansion	-25	19
2023-11-03	1.55	1.55	6.26	76000	Downward Expansion	-23	19
2023-10-27	1.55	1.55	7.63	0	Downward Expansion	-34	20
2023-10-20	1.55	1.55	8.69	940000	Downward Expansion	-51	34
2023-10-13	1.50	1.55	1.30	114000	Downward Expansion	-62	64
2023-10-06	1.46	1.55	0.21	5078000	Downward Expansion	-74	70

Price vs TrendBelow-17.3%

Trend directionFalling-8.7%

Price vs current Fair ValuePremium+8.9%

Fair Value directionMoving away-15.7%

Relative Strength vs benchmarkLagging-15.0%

Relative strength directionWeakening-20.6%

Price momentumNegative-24.7%

Volume balanceSupply-led0.57×

Beyond the current label

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction and energy measure different things

Direction shows the upward or downward lean. Energy shows the force behind the structural move: high energy can accompany a strong decline as well as an advance.

Direction

-78 / ±100

-5.5 points since 2026-08-28

Energy

59 /100

+2.5 points since 2026-08-28

Recent change compares the latest reading with four observations earlier. Missing readings remain unavailable. Use the chart values above to inspect individual observations.

0373 Directional State ↗ 0373 Momentum Intelligence ↗

Comparative structural evidence

Why this architecture regime won

Every regime is evaluated

Balance23

Rotation Up22

Upward Expansion9

Deceleration53

Rotation Down65

Downward Expansion84

The winning regime is the state most consistent with the complete SM evidence set. Direction, energy, maturity and confidence describe different aspects of the current structure, while contradictory evidence remains visible rather than being averaged into false certainty.

Time spent in each state

The context behind today’s regime

2023-10-06 to 2026-09-25 · 156 classified observations out of 156 shown.

Balance 19%Rotation Up 5%Upward Expansion 24%Deceleration 11%Rotation Down 3%Downward Expansion 38%

Recent Trend Architecture ledger

Regime	Recognized	Last observation	Tenure	Move inside regime
Downward Expansion	2026-06-19	2026-09-25	Established	-16.9%
Rotation Down	2026-05-15	2026-06-12	Developing	+6.7%
Deceleration	2026-04-03	2026-05-08	Developing	-2.6%
Upward Expansion	2026-01-09	2026-03-27	Developing	+8.3%
Deceleration	2025-11-21	2026-01-02	Developing	+27.8%
Upward Expansion	2025-05-23	2025-11-14	Established	+41.4%
Deceleration	2025-04-25	2025-05-16	New	+0.0%
Rotation Up	2025-03-21	2025-04-18	Developing	-8.0%
Balance	2025-02-28	2025-03-14	New	+4.2%
Downward Expansion	2024-11-29	2025-02-21	Established	+1.4%
Balance	2024-10-18	2024-11-22	Developing	-5.3%
Rotation Up	2024-10-04	2024-10-11	New	-6.1%
Downward Expansion	2024-09-20	2024-09-27	New	+1.4%
Balance	2024-08-30	2024-09-13	New	-2.7%

Classic Stage Analysis comparison

Stage 1 · Basing36

Stage 2 · Advancing0

Stage 3 · Distribution35

Stage 4 · Declining100

Legacy result: Stage 4 · Stage 4B · Declining. It remains visible while the experimental architecture is validated rather than being silently discarded.

Leadership versus ^HSI

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Confirmation, not classification

Relative Strength

The security is compared with its market benchmark on the SM scale. Above zero indicates relative leadership; direction shows whether that leadership is improving or weakening.

Confirmation evidence

Lagging benchmark

Architecture confirmation: 93/100
Current Relative Strength: -14.95
Relative Strength direction: Weakening
Price momentum: -24.7%
Excess performance vs benchmark: -23.0%
Financial Services regime cohort: 65th percentile91 in cohort

Test 0373 trend persistence

Participation and structure

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Volume cannot overrule geometry

Relative volume0.38×

Latest completed volume relative to typical participation.

Up/down volume0.57×

Participation balance between advancing and declining observations.

Accumulation / distribution1 / 1

Recent participation evidence classified by demand and supply.

Activity alignment+0.0%

Current positive alignment across Activity and Trend.

Fast/slow rotationImproving

Current relationship between Fast Activity and Slow Activity.

Structure stability+50.0%

Whether recent Activity evidence is stable or remains in balance.

Weekly volume with architecture context

Bars show completed weekly volume; the dashed line provides typical-volume context. Both measures use the same scale.

Explore 0373 Volume & Price ↗

Decision architecture

References that would change the structural read

Evidence levels, not orders

Fast Activity HKD 2.06falling

Slow Activity HKD 2.25falling

Trend Reference HKD 2.40-17.3% close margin

Current Fair Value HKD 1.82+8.9% close margin

Structural low HKD 1.92shock / repair context

What changes the read?

Fan contraction and a persistent upward fast/slow rotation are required before the declining structure is considered repaired.

Range context +6.0%

Annualized volatility +31.0%

From structural high -44.3%

From structural low +3.4%

Point-in-time evidence

What followed this architecture in this market?

Descriptive history, never a forecast

Historical comparisons use only the structural read that would have been available at each completed observation. Independent observations are used where possible, with benchmark comparison beginning after each recognized state.

Outcome horizon	Samples	Median move	Positive periods	Directional follow-through	Median excess vs ^HSI	Regime survived	Read
Near term	38	-0.3%-17.8% to +13.3%	+44.7%	+50.0%	-0.5%	+86.8%	Usable descriptive sample
Intermediate	13	-1.3%-27.1% to +3.4%	+38.5%	+61.5%	-5.9%	+69.2%	Usable descriptive sample
Extended	7	-1.8%-32.0% to +9.9%	+42.9%	+57.1%	-8.9%	+57.1%	Usable descriptive sample
Full cycle	4	-5.1%-33.2% to +45.6%	+25.0%	+75.0%	-7.2%	+75.0%	Too little matched history

Evidence framework

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Trend Architecture brings Price, Fast Activity, Slow Activity and Trend into one structural read. It identifies balance, rotation, expansion, deceleration and contraction while requiring persistent evidence for confirmed regime changes.

Evidence roles

Trend, Activity, relative strength, volume and Fair Value each have a defined role in the SM evidence framework. No single reading is treated as sufficient on its own, and conflicting evidence remains visible.

Fair Value and RS

Current Fair Value provides a long-term price anchor and shows whether price is trading above, below or repairing toward that reference. Relative Strength compares the security with its benchmark and shows whether leadership is improving or weakening.

Known limitations

Weekly structure recognizes conditions after they develop. Event gaps can bypass smooth transitions, sideways markets can rotate repeatedly, and historical samples for a particular regime can be thin.

Independent market research for education. Not investment advice, a recommendation, a forecast, a target, or an execution instruction. Historical regime behaviour does not establish what happens next.

0373 Stage Analysis

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Send a message

Evidence context

What the Activity Line geometry says now

The weekly architecture is expanding downward.

Weekly close, Activity, Trend and Fair Value

Is the structure strengthening or losing force?

Direction

Energy

Why this architecture regime won

The context behind today’s regime

Is relative performance confirming the geometry?

Relative Strength ?

Lagging benchmark

Is demand confirming the architecture?

Weekly volume with architecture context

References that would change the structural read

What followed this architecture in this market?

Test the structure from another angle

Trend Persistence ↗

Directional State ↗

Momentum Intelligence ↗

Volume & Price ↗

Similar Charts ↗

RMI Reversal Map ↗

What the analysis measures and where its limits lie

Trend Architecture

Evidence roles

Fair Value and RS

Known limitations

Relative Strength

Trend Persistence

Directional State

Momentum Intelligence

Volume & Price

Similar Charts

RMI Reversal Map